thegooser1 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Hi guys, If another goal is scored quickly after a goal then don't we just miss that one lay? Would it mess things up too much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system On the face of it, gooser is right. Let's say you've laid at 1.5 and 2 fast goals come out before you can lay 2.5. You've lost your 1.5 lay, so why not just move to a 3.5 lay which covers the 1.5 loss, and take it from there? The progression of your liability has now been accelerated, so nervousness can set in. But a stop-loss trigger could keep you from doing your money. I'll get the data from a couple of the games I mentioned above and check this out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roland777nl Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Basically you're starting from scratch after a quick second goal. Let's say we already have two goals in the 15th and 44th minute so you lost the 1.5 and have 2.5 and 3.5 running, in the second half there are two quick goals in the 75th and 76th minute. I don't know what the lay quote for over 5.5 would be, but I very much doubt you'll put a new stake with such high liability on. I agree this won't happen too often, but it's not totally unthinkable. As student says, best stay with very liquid markets like the English Premier or maybe some lower scoring leagues (France, Italy?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roland777nl Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Just knew this would happen... I'm on the England - Holland game, laying over 3.5 @4.5 now, 62nd min., but original stake laying over 1.5 lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roland777nl Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system and traded out in the 75th for a small profit. That wasn't too bad. I see what you mean by moving to 3.5 now, student. It took only about 13 minutes to get my original lost stake back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Glad to hear it, roland! At this moment I'm raising a glass of good Spanish chardonnay to our eventual success. However, I've gotta credit gooser for suggesting that you jump a bet if there are two quick goals. I dug out my 4 games where 2 quick goals happened in 2009, and found that either they were all stopped in the the first half -- or the data service deleted the 2md half data. Bug**r! But will perservire. I think we're on to something here. Must sign off as getting too sleepy to focus on complex spreadsheet matters. Hasta manana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegooser1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system OK guys I was playing around during the endland match last night and found a few interesting things: At half time the score was 0 - 0. The profit for greening up on the 1.5 goals would have been about 50% of the original stake plus the stake back. So a £20.00 stake on the 1.5 would have given us £10.00 profit either way. I would have taken that in all fairness. at 50 mins, the odds for laying 0 - 0 were 2.95. If I layed the 0 - 0 here then I would have won £28.12 for 1 more goal, and broke even for any other result (no more goals or more than one goal). This means I would have gotten a free bet on 1 - 0 and 0 - 1 with no risk at all. Right, then something interesting happened. There were 2 quick goals. As I was trying to lay the over 2.5 @ odds of 4.4, they banged another in. So I had no bet on over 2.5 and over 3.5 was at odds of 4.5. What I did was then put the lay in for over 2.5 at 1.74, and put the lay in on over 3.5 odds of 4.5. At 65 mins I could green all bets for £2.53. At 72 mins I could green all bets for £10.00 At 80 mins I could green all bets for £40.00. Late in the game the goals started flying in. I don't remember the exact result or times of the goals, but it would have died at the third goal. I didn't get the odds for the current score through the game but it would have been very interesting. What would be nice is to work out how to get either the green up situation at half time or just after it, or the "free bet" on one more goal where if there is one more we win but if there is not then we lose nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Great post, gooser. What an instereing game! In about week's time the real-time prices for the England game will be available in my data service. All being well I'll be able to go through it in detail to look at some of the unknowns you've highlighted, including laying the current score at various times. By the way, some guys on another forum found that laying 0-0 at half-time was less productive than laying other scores. They also found that Dutch leagues score more heavily than most in the second half. I agree with you about trading out at HT if real money had been involved. But investigating what-if scenarios for staying on in games like this could tell us a lot. I've got a shed load of things on this afternoon, but will be back this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegooser1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Cool, yeah check it all out. Between us we are finding a few good exit plans. We just need to find the optimal ones and figure out how to apply them to difference circumstances as the game goes on. I think it's fair to say though that getting to 80+ mins with just one lay on the over 1.5 market is asking for trouble. I think that although you will miss out on those games when you win loads, you will also avoid the high losses if you went in with the tools to trade at an acceptable profit when the target is reached. I can't find any games at all tonight with high equity and high odds for AUQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system I use a trading program (Mods: can I mention it?) that makes it easy to do real-time analyses on BF prices in Excel. You can, if your intention is not purely to advertise it, or to post your affiliate link with them. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegooser1 Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system @student I tried to PM you but can't find how to do it. See if you can pm me with an email address. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Hi Gooser Sorry I've been absent. Stuff catching up with me. At this moment, I'm working on expanding the spreadsheet to give real-time updates when attached to Bet Angel. It's a bit complicated, but as soon as it's finished, I'm going to trawl through some real-time data. I don't know how to PM here either, but will try to find to find out how to PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Guys you cant PM until you get to 50 posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system @ froment Thanks for your clarification. I've mentioned Bet Angel in the previous email. How do we PM on this forum? Do we need to have a minimum number of posts? [Edit: Thanks staffy for the info] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Hi Gooser I just PM'd you my email address on another gambling forum. It's the one you joined on 07 April 2010, but never posted on it. You also listed your team there as Accrington Stanley. Unless your handle is shared by someone else, I see you're pretty active in poker and MMA. [TABLE] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
student Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Re: The perfect martingale system Gooser: Further to my last post, I rechecked that PM and saw that I didn't click on Save. I've done that now and hope it got into your box. By the way the forum name begins with 'O'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupra666 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Quite an interesting read this. Did any previous posters get anywhere with this or find a way to cover late/lots of goals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stehof Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system To cover a lot of golas : Would it be effective to back the auq market before start as an insurance ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupra666 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Think this was looked at previously in the thread stehof. Haven't really looked at it in great detail myself but certainly would (or should) be a way of minimizing losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davd29 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Anybody tried or had any success with this strategy love to hear your opinions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Hey guys - Im back and I have a few more ideas on how we can make this possibly even better :) Im off to Bath for the racing today, but hopefully tomorrow I will be around for a few games. I havent looked at this system since I started this thread, but having a quick read through has already got my brain ticking over on a few ideas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok so here is my first idea. Having a quick read back through this thread the problem seems to arise when there are alot of late goals... and we have to wait until the 80th+ minute to wait until the CS odds come down to around 1.15 so we can breakeven. My first idea would be this. Instead of firstly laying over 1.5 goals and then when a goal is scored laying over 2.5 goals (as this gives us a goal buffer), when not start off by laying over 2.5 goals and when a goal is scored laying over 3.5 goals (as this then gives us a 2 goal buffer). So..... Pre-match. Lay Over 2.5 goals GOAL (1-0) Lay Over 3.5 goals If no more goals are scored then we have 2 winning bets. -------------------------------- Lay Over 2.5 goals GOAL (1-0) Lay Over 3.5 goals GOAL (2-0) Lay Over 4.5 goals If no more goals are scored then we have 3 winning bets. -------------------------------- Now this is where I want it to changed up a little.... Lay Over 2.5 goals GOAL (1-0) Lay Over 3.5 goals GOAL (2-0) Lay Over 4.5 goals GOAL (3-0) Now we dont place a bet. If no more goals are scored then we have 2 winning bets. -------------------------------- Lay Over 2.5 goals GOAL (1-0) Lay Over 3.5 goals GOAL (2-0) Lay Over 4.5 goals GOAL (3-0) GOAL (4-0) Again no more bets. If no more goals are scored then we have 1 winning bets. -------------------------------- Now we wait until the CS market drops low enough to place a bet to cover our liabilities. -------------------------------- I have no idea if this will work out with the odds, but I plan over the next few days to paper trade it and post the results on here. I believe this system defiantly has a chance of being successful - one thing that would help an awful lot would be a way of consistently picking games with less than 3 or 4 games. Does anyone know what leagues on average have games with less than 3 goals per game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRowley007 Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Hi shadowvkc, this website shows all the stats for all the major leagues including the stats for over/under 3.5 goals if you click on the wide table. http://www.soccerstats.com/ The leagues with the lowest percentages are: Greece 15.8%, Mexico 17.6% (this kicks off next month), and Argentina with 20.7%. Obviously the odds on the unders will be shorter for these leagues though. I think your system idea is a very original one and if you refine it will hopefully bring success. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok so here goes... today will see my first live bet (be it for small stakes) using the above method. The game is Italy U21 V Spain U21. Currently the odds for Under 2.5 goals is 1.65 indicating (hopefully) a low scoring game. So the first bet is going to be Laying Over 2.5 goals. Bet 1 - Lay Over 2.5 Goals. Odds - 2.5 Liability - £7.50 Profit - £4.50 (after commission). If there is a goal scored bet 2 will be Lay Over 3.5 Goals for £5 + £7.50 (the liability from the last bet). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Also going to do Jordan V Oman at the same time. The current Under 2.5 goal odds are 1.67 Bet 1 - Lay Over 2.5 Goals. Odds 2.5 Liability - 7.50 Profit - 4.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Wow 10 mins in and we have 2 goals in the Spain Game. Current Score 1-1 So the bets are now as follows: Bet 1 - Lay Over 2.5 Goals. odds - 2.5 Liability - £7.50 Profit - £4.50 (after commission). Bet 2 - Lay Over 3.5 Goals odds - 2.74 Liability - £21.75 Profit - £11.88 (after commission). Bet 3 - Lay Over 4.5 Goals odds - 2.76 Liability - £60.28 Profit - £32.54 (after commission). So currently we have a total liability of £89.53 and a current potential profit of £49.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok so ANOTHER goal in the Spain game. So that means it is now 1-2 (3 goals). We now have 2 winning bets and 1 lossing bet. Currently Liability - £89.53 Current potential profit - £36.92 I will now place no bets until another goal is scored Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok so Another goal making the score 1-3 We now have 1 winning bet (lay Over 4.5 goals) Currently Liability - £89.53 Current potential profit - £3.29 Now I am going to stop betting here as obviously this game is going to get messy. If you wanted to lay over 5.5 goals the current odds are 1.95 so I will carry on paper trading this match. Bet 4 - Lay Over 4.5 Goals odds - 1.95 Liability - £89.80 Profit - £89.80 (after commission). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system It's not a great time to be testing this with real money mate. Personally I don't touch reserve, u21, cup or international fixtures. All of which are far too unpredictable for my liking. Im currently paper testing a system of mines using only the summer leagues. Brazil Argentina Sweden iceland etc. You should maybe look at refining your selection process rather than just using the odds as a guide. I think there may be legs in this though with more testing. Only if you can avoid hitting 6 goal thrillers though hehe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olimp23 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Re: The perfect martingale system Does anybody uses this strategy now? Are you making any profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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