The perfect martingale system

[aldric]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

I am unable to do the last game as I have friends coming over. Are you going to do it Aldric?

I will try it and post the result after the match... a £5 lay and I am putting a stop loss on of £50.

im not trying to be a killjoy' date='but these things do happen:$[/quote'] They definately do! (Killjoy!! :) )

[twinny]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? They definately do! (Killjoy!! :) ) haha,cheers aldric,im defenitly not trying to put anyone off trying this idea,i think it would make money most of the time,i just know personally if it was me i would chase the losses and prob lose a massive percent of my bank

[aldric]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

I will try it and post the result after the match... a £5 lay and I am putting a stop loss on of £50.

I got bored and greened up for near enough £2.50 profit at 0-0 HT.... been on the PC too much already today. GL if anyone else is trying this out, post up the odds if there is a goal or more.

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I will do it, but only on paper. Took Lay 1.5 goals @ 1.37 because I see that in the BetFair graph. I don't know what aldric took.

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Goal 59th minute Bet 1: Lay Over 1.5 goals @ 1.37 Liability 3.70 Bet 2: Lay Over 2.5 goals @ 4.00 (odds very swingy, I took average) Liability 41.10

[hernancrespo]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Goal, 1-0 United

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? The system absolutely works when there are not many goals. It is only the question how high the liability can become when there are many goals, especially in the second half because we don't have an unlimited bankroll. So what % of your bankroll is the target profit at the first bet?

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

Bet 1: Lay Over 1.5 goals @ 1.37 Liability 3.70 Bet 2: Lay Over 2.5 goals @ 4.00 (odds very swingy, I took average) Liability 41.10

87th minute: Lay 0-1 @ 1.36 Stay 0-1 --> +6.93 2 goals --> +51.88 3 goals --> -2.24 I used the spreadsheet.

[hernancrespo]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Goal

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

87th minute: Lay 0-1 @ 1.36 Stay 0-1 --> +6.93 2 goals --> +51.88 3 goals --> -2.24 I used the spreadsheet.

Final score: 1-1 So +51.88 (if I played it with real money :wall) We can conclude that the system works very well if there aren't many goals. ;) The big question is what the odds are if there are late goals in the second half. That can make the liability very high

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Hi guys. So it seems as though the system worked for 3/3 games today. I totally understand the pitfalls in that goals scored late on would be an issue due to high odds, but I think our 1 goal buffer will stop this. We always have a goal to fall back on, so if a late goal is scored 75min+ then we will still have a winning bet which covers all of our liabilities and also our original profit target. At this point it would become imprerritive that we layed the correct score as soon as the odds come down to around 1.2 as a goal in extra time would screw us over. The problem I see would arise if there are 2 goals scores inbetween the 75th min and extra time. I think we are best sticking to games where pre match Under 2.5 goals are less than 2 so the market is leaning toward not many goals. Tomorrow in the English Premier League all 3 games are over odds of 2, so none of those would be a good bet. (I will probably paper trade them to see how a high goal game turns out).

[clay747]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Here are some odds for a game with late goals for us to have a look at. Arsenal 2 - 3 West Brom 25 September 2010. KO: +1.5 LAY @ 1.19 +2.5 LAY @ 1.59 (50 min) Goal 1: +1.5 LAY @ 1.26 +2.5 LAY @ 2 (52 min) Goal 2: +2.5 LAY @ 1.27 +3.5 LAY @ 2.2 (73 min) Goal 3: +3.5 LAY @ 1.7 +4.5 LAY @ 5.2 (75 min) Goal 4: +4.5 LAY @ 1.65 +5.5 LAY @ 4.8 (87 min) CS 3-1 LAY @ 1.41 (90+1 min) Goal 5: +5.5 LAY @ 4.8 There was 5 mins of extra time.

[BobNL]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? With the two margin system it will give us the following:

TOTAL LIABILITY	1.828,64
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS	1.228,45
When there wasn't a goal in extra time:
TOTAL LIABILITY 1.828,64 TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS -265,69 This liability is of course way to high so you have to be careful with your picks

[clay747]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? with a one goal margin we get:- (ko) BET 1: LAY +1.5 @ 1.19 £10 Liability = £1.9 (52 min) BET 2: LAY +2.5 @ 1.27 (£1.9 + £10 = £11.9) Liability = £3.3 (73 min) BET 3: LAY +3.5 @ 1.7 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10 = £15.2) Liability = £10.64 (75 min) BET 4: LAY +4.5 @ 1.65 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £10 = £25.84) Liability = £16.8 (90+1 min) BET 5: LAY +5.5 @ 4.8 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £16.80 + £10 =£42.64) Liability = £162 So our liability was £162 to win £10.

[Skittle]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Interesting reading up on all this.............but way off the chart for me.

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

with a one goal margin we get:- (ko) BET 1: LAY +1.5 @ 1.19 £10 Liability = £1.9 (52 min) BET 2: LAY +2.5 @ 1.27 (£1.9 + £10 = £11.9) Liability = £3.3 (73 min) BET 3: LAY +3.5 @ 1.7 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10 = £15.2) Liability = £10.64 (75 min) BET 4: LAY +4.5 @ 1.65 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £10 = £25.84) Liability = £16.8 (90+1 min) BET 5: LAY +5.5 @ 4.8 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £16.80 + £10 =£42.64) Liability = £162 So our liability was £162 to win £10.

Hmmm that is a little scary. I think its best we stick to low scoring games as much as possible. But should the worse happen, ie above, then its not as scary as you would think. Obviously martingale almost never works because on day you will have a run of losers that will bust the bank. With this kind of bet, you know there can only ever be a certain amount of losers in a row. So in theory as long as your bank is big enough, and you have the balls to see it through to the end it should never bust you

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

with a one goal margin we get:- (ko) BET 1: LAY +1.5 @ 1.19 £10 Liability = £1.9 (52 min) BET 2: LAY +2.5 @ 1.27 (£1.9 + £10 = £11.9) Liability = £3.3 (73 min) BET 3: LAY +3.5 @ 1.7 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10 = £15.2) Liability = £10.64 (75 min) BET 4: LAY +4.5 @ 1.65 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £10 = £25.84) Liability = £16.8 (90+1 min) BET 5: LAY +5.5 @ 4.8 (£1.9 + £3.3 + £10.64 + £16.80 + £10 =£42.64) Liability = £162 So our liability was £162 to win £10.

Also, how many goals were scored in this game? Im assuming 4 if we have a goal margin. I wouldnt have placed the last bet. We could have taken another goal at +4.5 and I would have risked there being another goal inbetween 75min and 85th min where i could have layed the correct score.. which at that point the odds would have been alot lower than the 4.8 which you took at Lay +5.5

[froment]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

Also, how many goals were scored in this game? Im assuming 4 if we have a goal margin. I wouldnt have placed the last bet. We could have taken another goal at +4.5 and I would have risked there being another goal inbetween 75min and 85th min where i could have layed the correct score.. which at that point the odds would have been alot lower than the 4.8 which you took at Lay +5.5

Five goals, he said result was 2-3; but I think you're right - with one goal ahead, and laying correct score at 87', you would not have placed the last bet, i.e., you wouldn't lay overs after 5th goals, because your lay correct score would be winning one, covering all liabilities (OK, almost all - small loss would occur) even in case of 6th goal! In other words, laying correct score at around 87' is last bet - after that no more bets are placed; if there are no goals after that, profit is achieved from two bets on Overs; if there is one goal, profit is achieved from one bet at Overs and one bet at Correct Score; and if there are two or more goals, profit is achieved only from bet at Correct Score, which covers most of the liability, leaving small loss. Though, sudden rise of liabilities in second half is indeed scary, as you noticed yourself. At the end of the day, strategy will bring profit as long as there is no more than 6 goals... and as long as you have a big enough bank, and sufficient liquidity to get it matched. ;)

[aldric]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? And the problem with the one goal only buffer is that you will have to increase the stakes as when you do the correct score lay @ 87 minutes you will have approx £4 liability giving you only £6 profit either way. Interesting stuff, but the liability in the 2nd half is way too scary for me.

[clay747]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

Five goals, he said result was 2-3; but I think you're right - with one goal ahead, and laying correct score at 87', you would not have placed the last bet, i.e., you wouldn't lay overs after 5th goals, because your lay correct score would be winning one, covering all liabilities (OK, almost all - small loss would occur) even in case of 6th goal! In other words, laying correct score at around 87' is last bet - after that no more bets are placed; if there are no goals after that, profit is achieved from two bets on Overs; if there is one goal, profit is achieved from one bet at Overs and one bet at Correct Score; and if there are two or more goals, profit is achieved only from bet at Correct Score, which covers most of the liability, leaving small loss. Though, sudden rise of liabilities in second half is indeed scary, as you noticed yourself. At the end of the day, strategy will bring profit as long as there is no more than 6 goals... and as long as you have a big enough bank, and sufficient liquidity to get it matched. ;)

Can you confirm that laying the current score in the CS market at the 87 min will be the same as backing +4.5 goals, the probabilities of these events are the same as four goals have already been scored. So it should be better to back +4.5, as we pay less commission when trading in the same market.

[clay747]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

Also, how many goals were scored in this game? Im assuming 4 if we have a goal margin. I wouldnt have placed the last bet. We could have taken another goal at +4.5 and I would have risked there being another goal inbetween 75min and 85th min where i could have layed the correct score.. which at that point the odds would have been alot lower than the 4.8 which you took at Lay +5.5

Is this what you mean? (50 min) LAY +2.5 @ 2 (£1.9 + £10 = £11.9) Liability = £11.9 (52 min) LAY +3.5 @ 2.2 (£1.9 + £11.9 + £10 = £23.8) Liability = £28.56 (73 min) LAY +4.5 @ 5.2 (£1.9 + £11.9 + £28.56 + £10 = £52.36) Liability = £220 (75 min) LAY +5.5 @ 4.8 (£1.9 + £11.9 + £28.56 + £220 + £10= £272.36) Liability = £1035 So after the 4th goal we have a liability of £1035.

[froment]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

Can you confirm that laying the current score in the CS market at the 87 min will be the same as backing +4.5 goals, the probabilities of these events are the same as four goals have already been scored. So it should be better to back +4.5, as we pay less commission when trading in the same market.

Surely - if there are X goals in the match at the moment, laying current score and backing over X.5 goals is the same thing; not only in 87 minute, but throughout entire match, and odds strictly follow each other - it's practically impossible to find lay odds in one of those markets lower than back odds in other market, and opposite. So your idea is quite reasonable - maybe some funds can be saved on commission!

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Ok I feel confident enough with the system and how it works to trade all 3 games tonight with real money - albeit small amounts. I shall post how I got on after the games :)

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? 3 winning games, but the one got very messy with 4 goals and a red card all late on in the game. The odds to place the next bet at Over 5.5 goals were to high for me, and I was a little nervous to say the least the last few minutes!! I think it is best we only trade games that are odds-on for under 2.5 goals - this will help us pick games with fewer goals hopefully. Chelsea V Bolton + £21.30 Wigan V Arsenal + £8.13 Liverpool V Wolves + £21.96 Total P/L = £51.39 of real money :nana

[aldric]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? How much was the liability on the Arsenal game? I really think you have been lucky so far with so few late goals. Ride the luck and have a stop loss and you are on to a winner :)

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? The total Liability from all the bets I had was £93.88.. but the odds to place the next bet were way to much for my. How would you work out a stop loss?

[clay747]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? A screen shot with the odds for all bets would be great, if it not to much trouble.

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

A screen shot with the odds for all bets would be great' date=' if it not to much trouble.[/quote'] yea not a problem.. is there a way to show all the bets for 1 game in 1 screenshot instead of having to go into each individual market?

[aldric]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please??

The total Liability from all the bets I had was £93.88.. but the odds to place the next bet were way to much for my. How would you work out a stop loss?

The liability for 3 games isn't too bad.. I was meaning an amount you are prepared to risk per game, say £75 depending on what you are looking to win I guess.

[shadowvkc]

Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Found it: