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NFL Week Sixteen Picks


AGurv

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NFL 2010-2011 Overall 34W-25L-1P +4.40 units (57.62%) Last Week 1-2 The Vikings was one of the worst picks I've made all year. Wouldn't have mattered who was playing QB, this defense can't stop Cutler. 49ers +1.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Rams/Bradford have been struggling bad the last couple of games. Granted they did play 2 pretty decent teams. Those two teams weren't juggernauts on defense though, he had 2 INt's against Kansas City, and 2 against the Saints, with no TD's. San Fran has beaten the Rams 5 times in a row, and I think they are probably the best team in this division, and they will end up making the playoffs.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

NFL 2010-2011 Overall 34W-25L-1P +4.40 units (57.62%) Last Week 1-2 The Vikings was one of the worst picks I've made all year. Wouldn't have mattered who was playing QB, this defense can't stop Cutler. 49ers +1.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Rams/Bradford have been struggling bad the last couple of games. Granted they did play 2 pretty decent teams. Those two teams weren't juggernauts on defense though, he had 2 INt's against Kansas City, and 2 against the Saints, with no TD's. San Fran has beaten the Rams 5 times in a row, and I think they are probably the best team in this division, and they will end up making the playoffs.
I agree that the Rams/Bradford have been struggling the last couple of games, but 49ers have struggled pretty well all year on the road. Two close losses against a good Atlanta and weak Carolina in October, with their only win at Cards - all games with Gore contributing heavily. In a poor division where all teams are struggling on the road, i think you have to go with the home team and favour Rams -2 @ 10/11 BET365.
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks I'm with the Gurv on this one too... ...pretty sure SF win SU. (2.22 @ Pinnacle)

26 Dec. 18:00 AFC East 2010/11 New England Patriots 1.00
New York Jets 34.00
...thanks Ladbrokes, but er, no thanks... :eyes Not quite as bad as IASbet offering odds on Houston and Tenn to win the Div last week when they were officially zero chance...or is it? :unsure Just 2 for me this week I reckon, everything looks reasonably tight/unpredictable... Jags v. Washington OVER 45 (1.91 @ Sportingbet) [unfortunately] this Jags D is pretty bad...6.3 y/play allowed is the worst in the NFL, on the back of 8.4 y/pass allowed, again the worst. Grossman had a pretty huge day last week against a similarly bad D...the one thing we do know about Rex is that he will go down swinging! Washington D allows the most yards/game...4.8 y/rush (only TB worse) and the most pass yards/game...Jags will score. In fact they are 11-3 'over' on the season, but never too late to catch the boat. Cinci +7.5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) Going in to this one a bit blind...but trusting some numbers that I've had stored away for a couple of years... Go against any NFL team who have scored 30+ and allowed 10 or less in their last 2 games, if they now play outside the Div. ...This system claims to be unbeaten since 1977...and I assume it doesn't happen very often... ...the only 2 results I can verify are Cards +12 over the Bears in 06 (Chic won by 1 point) [the point at which I found it], and Bills +10 over Dallas (Dallas won by 1 point again :unsure), which is the result it 'predicted'. I'm pretty sure the situation hasn't happened since. No rhyme, no reason... :cow
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Add a couple already! :lol Detroit @ Miami under 41.5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) and Det +3.5 (1.91 everywhere) League: 10-0 (Av. WIN 4.1) any 3+ dog off a SU win in OT as a road 3+ dog, if opp last lost ats. [Det] 1-9 under in that situation (Av. total 39.5...av. score 28.9!)... ...and 0-7 under (Av. score 25.1!!) if they are on the road again this week. Have been tossing up Miami unders for a couple of weeks now. Their O-line is in a real mess, Henne sacked 8 times in the last 2 weeks, and to go 19/65 rushing against the Bills last week says a lot. They've only topped 14 once in the last 5 weeks, and again, just 14 last week v. a Bills team who had allowed 30+ in 5 of 6 on the road speaks volumes. Detroit have been sneaking under the radar a bit, esp. their D, which has given up 24 or less in the majority of games... ...in fact, take out Giants, Philli, Dallas, GB and NE (all in the top 11 for total offense and ppg) the Lions have given up a very respectable 19 ppg. Miami are 31st in the league for scoring. Of course their offense won't be able to run with the ease they did last week, so it should be a tight game either way.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

It is the time of year to look at teams who need to win for playoff spots and those who have nothing to play for - especially if they are looking to get better draft picks
Dunno about the last part. In the NBA..MLB..its easier to start dropping games because one player can be the end of it. In the NFL, you need an entire team effort to suck.
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

Dunno about the last part. In the NBA..MLB..its easier to start dropping games because one player can be the end of it. In the NFL' date= you need an entire team effort to suck.
At the moment there are quite a few teams that fit that bill (Minnesota, Denver, Tennessee and Carolina to name some teams) ;)
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Colts -3 (+100) to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes I'll take my chances with Manning in a must win type situation while the Raider's season I believe may be finished by then. I expect this to be the best game of the week tbh, but its hard not to take Manning in a game like this one.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Philli v. Minni under 44 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) League: 4-20-3 under (Av. total 40.8...av. score 37.8) road 10+ dog off any ats loss as home 3+ dog, with 4+ TO's. [Min] 1-15-3 under (Av. score 36.8) if total is 39+. Basically the Viking D held up pretty well last week (Cutlet 14/24 194, and 33/104 rushing), but a couple of TO's in Chicago's half, plus 2 big Hester returns (1 for a TD) blew out the score. Who-ever starts at QB, Minni won't score much...take out a 200+ rushing game v. Buff and they haven't topped 17 (and av. just 10!) in their last 5. But, they are 6th in total D...the Giants are the only better team Philli have faced. Obviously the total is a bit inflated due to Philli's 28 points in the last 8 mins last week too...forget that...mainly because they won't need to here! Eagles haven't topped 30 v. a decent D all year (sans last week), and if they don't again here I can't see Minni scoring enough to push this one over. That's it for me. Unless we see some Player Props about 24 hours earlier than usual I won't get a chance. So Merry Christmas everyone...stay safe, and win big. :ok :cheers

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Pittsburgh -20.5 @ 2.90 centrebet Pittsburg need to win their last 2 games to ensure they claim the AFC North title, so like them to bounce back from their 22-17 loss to the NY Jets last week. Carolina did well to defeat Arizona 19-12 last week for their second win of the season, but they have lost all 6 games on the road, losing by 13 points at the NY Giants, lost by 2 points at New Orleans (divisional rival), lost by 10 point at St Louis, lost by 15 points at Tampa Bay, lost by a point at Cleveland, and lost by 17 points at Seattle. Pittsburgh have been very good at home of late, beating the easier teams quite well. They beat Cincinnati by 16 points (23-7), beat Oakland by 32 points (35-3) and Cleveland by 18 points (28-10), though they did lose to a red hot New England side 39-26. So besides NE, they score points and also restrict the opposition from scoring to win comfortably. Carolina have allowed at least 31 points in 5 of their last 7 games (average 29 points) while they have scored an average of 14 points in these 7 games. Pittsburgh's QB Roethlisberger leads a pass attack that averages 214 yards per game (ranked 18th) while they average 122 yards on the ground (ranked 8th), so expect Mendenhall to get plenty of carries to follow on from his 100 rushing yards and a TD against a very good Jets rush defence. Carolina does well at stopping the pass as they are ranked 5th with passing yards allowed. The rush defence though allows 126 yards per game (ranked 23rd) so this is an area where Pittsburgh can do well in. Carolina focuses on running the ball as they have averaged 168 yards in their last 4 games, and 117 yards overall (ranked 10th) while their passing game is the worst in the league with 149 yards per game. Expect Clausen to be under plenty of pressure as the Pittsbugh LBs have 40 sacks for the year, which is tied for 3rd in the league. Also Pittsburgh have a very good rush defence that allows just 63 yards per game (ranked 1st) and they will be looking to maintain that high level of performance. While they allow 214 passing yards (ranked 18th) they should not have to worry too much considering that Carolian themselves struggle to pass the ball. Pittsburgh at home, and Carolina on the road, are two teams with a huge disparity between them. Pittsburgh has plenty to play for, while Carolina does not, and while the home team is more balanced on offence, expect them to also close down Carolina's running game. Like them to win well here. Overall: 37-50 (+4.13)

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Under 70.5 rushing yards for Jonathan Stewart [Carolina Panthers] @ 1.91 (Skybet) This is an unbelievable line for Jonathan Stewart who is up against the best rush defense in the league by a mile, a team whose avg. rushing yards against per game is 63.4 which is less than this total. I expect the Steelers to easily win this and I think with little motivation the Panthers will roll over. The Steelers D should easily shut down Stewart and even though he has played well recently averaging very 90+ yardage, I don't expect this to continue here.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

. 49ers +1.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Rams/Bradford have been struggling bad the last couple of games. Granted they did play 2 pretty decent teams. Those two teams weren't juggernauts on defense though, he had 2 INt's against Kansas City, and 2 against the Saints, with no TD's. San Fran has beaten the Rams 5 times in a row, and I think they are probably the best team in this division, and they will end up making the playoffs.
Taken them to win SU @ 2.27 (Pinnacle) League: 8-0 SU (Av. WIN 6.6) road (-3 to +3) off a 7+ ats loss as road 7+ dog, if opp is also off a 7+ ats loss. [sF] ...and...League: 0-8 SU (Av. LOSS 16.4!!) home (-3 to +3) off any home 14+ ats loss if opp is also off a 14+ ats loss. [sL] Now, very hard to believe I know, but not one of those 16 games is common!! :eek A combined 0-16 spot for the Rams...and in both situations, the home team really struggles to score... ...which, funnily enough, sums SL up right now...not even right now. They've topped 20 only 2 times all season!! Against 2 horrible D's (Wash and Denver)...it's their D that's really fallen over of late...given up 27+ in 4 of their last 5... ...49er D held the SD run game in check who had been going ok...41-108, and safe to say Bradford won't have as much impact as Rivers on a result... SF had just on 100 more yards in their last meeting, and I agree with the Gurv, I think they're the better team too. :ok Good call bc... ...and yeah, pretty stiff Rick. The problem with the Panthers is that they have no option but to keep handing him the ball. :eyes :puke
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Arizona - Dallas over 46.5 @ 2.10 pinnacle While Arizona are breaking in a rookie QB (Skelton) for the last few games of the year, they do have two very good WR's that he can aim for, with Fitzgerald and Breaston good targets to aim for. They average 182 passing yards (ranked 30th) so like them to get some good yardage here, especially with a Dallas secondary that allows an average of 257 passing yards per game (ranked 28th). Expect Arizona to pass the ball since their ground game has struggled as they are averaging just 87 yards per game (ranked 31st) and Dallas allowed just 55 rushing yards to Washington last week. Dallas allows an average of 109 rushing yards per game (ranked 14th) so they are likely to find it tough running on them. Dallas will look to pass the ball with QB Kitna, as he looks to WR Austin and TE Witten, to drive a passing game that averages 266 yards per game (ranked 4th), and they should do well on this secondary that allows 228 passing yards (ranked 22nd). Also they have much better balance these days, as they tend to run the ball much more. Though they average 103 rushing yards for the season (ranked 20th), they have averaged over 150 rushing yards in its last 4 games, so expect RBs Jones and Barber to get their hands on the ball here with Arizona's rush defence allowing 146 rushing yards per game (ranked 30th) and did allow 177 rushing yards to Carolina last week. Arizona have scored 24+ points in 4 of their 7 home games, while they have allowed 23+ points in 4 of these 7 home games. Dallas has averaged 32 points since new coach Garrett came in, and have won 4 of these 6 games, even though they have allowed 30+ points in their last 4 games. In these last 4 games, they are 2-2, with each game ending with a FG difference between the two teams, so can see this being fairly close. While Dallas may look like a much better team than Arizona, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games in Arizona, losing 30-24 in their last match there 2 years ago. The over looks more likely to occur with these two teams that have underperformed this year. Week 16: 1-0 (+1.90) Overall: 37-50 (+4.13) (Update at the end of the week)

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

It is the time of year to look at teams who need to win for playoff spots and those who have nothing to play for - especially if they are looking to get better draft picks
Careful with this...teams that have to win to advance historically have a very poor record SU, let alone ATS.
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Arizona - Dallas over 46.5 @ 2.10 :D Good start for the over with those 2 INTs that went for TDs, and then they left it late to send it over Kansas -6.5 @ 2.16 centrebet Kansas look to clinch the AFC West title with a win here, as they have won all 6 games at home, with an average winning margin of 13 points per game. Tennessee have lost their last 3 away games by 8, 12 and 20 points (average of 13 points), and face a team with a strong home record while they have lost 6 of 7 games overall. Kansas has the best rushing offence in the league as they average 169 yards per game with Charles and Jones both doing the job for them. QB Cassel leads a pass offence that averages just 184 yards per game (ranked 29th) so they will do what they do best and run the ball. Tennessee allows 114 rushing yards per game (ranked 17th) but they do allow 248 passing yards per game (ranked 24th), and Cassel is good enough to get some yards on this secondary. Tennessee struggles in their passing game as they air it for just 185 yards per game (ranked 28th ) while they do have a good run game with Johnson leading the way for 116 yards per game (ranked 13th). Kansas has a decent defence that allows 227 passing yards (ranked 18th) and an even better rush defence that allows 107 rushing yards per game (ranked 13th). What has been impressive about this team is that they allow 20 points per game, but at home, they only allow 12 points per game, and only once has a team scored more than 14 points against them at home. While both teams struggle to pass the ball, there is an opportunity for both sides to take advantage of ordinary opposing secondary's. Both teams like to run the ball, but this year Kansas have done it much better, and with a much better defence at home, like them to use their advantage on both sides of the ball to win this game Baltimore -6.5 @ 2.37 centrebet Baltimore QB Flacco has 3,395 passing yards for 23 TDs and 8 INTs as they average 224 passing yards per game (ranked 15th) while RB Rice leads the running game with 112 rushing yards per game (ranked 15th). Like Rice to do well here as he faces the 25th ranked Cleveland rush defence that allows 129 points per game. Their secondary allows 223 passing yards per game (ranked 15th) so they tend to do the job, and will need to, to help out the first line of defence. Cleveland will look to their rookie QB McCoy, who has 1,218 passing yards, for 5 TDs and 3 INTs, to lead the offence, as they average 188 passing yards per game (ranked 27th) but their is injury concerns with their RB Hillis, which will be a blow for them if he does not play, as they are averaging 107 yards per game (ranked 18th). Baltimore has a pretty good defence that allows 223 passing yards per game (ranked 15th) and 94 rushing yards per game (ranked 5th). Baltimore have only allows more than 17 points in 5 of their 14 games this season, and with Hillis doubtful and also facing a rookie QB, expect Suggs and Lewis to blitz often and force Cleveland into mistakes. With playoff spots on the line, doubt we do not see a motivated Ravens side here New England -9.5 @ 2.10 centrebet New England look to secure home field advantage in the playoffs with a win here, and like QB Brady who averages 243 passing yards per game (ranked 10th) to once again help the team to record another 30 points scored (they have done so in their last 6 games which they have won, and average 32 points per game for the season) as he has 3561 passing yards, for 31 TDs and just 4 INTs. They also average 113 rushing yards per game (ranked 14th) so they do have a good balance on offence. They will look to run the league worst run defence that allows 159 rushing yards per game, while the secondary allows 202 passing yards per game (ranked 7th), but they often have had problems dealing with Brady in the past and like him to continue to do well here. Buffalo averages just 20 points per game on offence, as they have scored more than 20 points just once in their last 8 games. They pass for an average of 199 yards per game (ranked 19th) while they run for 111 yards per game (ranked 11th). They will like their chances of throwing on a NE defence that allows 263 passing yards per game (ranked 30th) while the rush defence allows just 111 points per game (ranked 14th). Though the NE defence does give up points, hard to see them keeping pace with NE here, who received a big slap in the face last week from the Packers, so like the Patriots to start and play much better this week. Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.42 centrebet Green Bay's offence should be even better this week with the return of QB Rodgers as he has passed for 3289 yards, with 23 TDs and 10 INTs, as the team averages 250 passing yards per game (ranked 8th) while the run game has suffered with injuries, they still manage 102 rushing yards per game (ranekd 22nd). The NY Giants has the second best pass defence as they allow just 188 passing yards per game, and their rush defence allows 103 rushing yards per game (ranked ). GB's offence has scored 28+ points in 5 of their 6 home games, so like them to do well here, as expecting the Giants to be still demoralised after their 4th quarter choke at the hands of Philly last week. New York averages 239 passing yards per game (ranked 12th) and 145 rushing yards per game (ranked 5th) but they are up against a Packers defence that allows just 192 passing yards (ranked 3rd) and 117 rushing yards per game (ranked 19th). Also they face a Packers pass rush that is tied third in the league with 40 sacks and QB Manning does tend to throw INT when he faces pressure, so there could be some turnovers created by the home team. Green Bay were unlucky last week to lose to the Patriots while NY stuffed up and threw away the game. With their season on the line here, like the Packers to win this one Week 16: 2-0 (+3.00) Overall: 37-50 (+4.13) (Update at the end of the week)

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Quick explanations I'm afraid because I haven't got much time. San Diego Chargers (-7.5) @ 1.91 (Betfred) The Chargers have it all to play for and are in scintillating form with 68-7 points in there last two games. Although the Bengals usually keep it close with any team that visits them, I expect the Chargers to keep up their great form. Tim Tebow Over 160.5 passing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) Tebow had his first full game last week and gave a 126 passing yard performance versus a solid passing D in the Raiders. Now he is up against one of the weakest in the league, the Texans and I'm think with the home crowd behind him and a bit of confidence boost after is first game might propel to over this total. Adrian Foster Over 90.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) Foster here is more than capable of running all over the Bronco defense who struggle to stop anyone rushing for lots of yardage. Last week they gave up over 100 to McFadden and Foster is more than capable of putting these numbers up. Darren McFadden Over 105.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) McFadden lines up for the Raiders opposite the Colts who have one of the weakest rushing defenses in the league. With Oakland having a fairly weak pass offense I expect them to rely on McFadden to do the damage against the Colts and hopefully he will live up to expectations and net over this total.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

I Cinci +7.5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) Going in to this one a bit blind...but trusting some numbers that I've had stored away for a couple of years... Go against any NFL team who have scored 30+ and allowed 10 or less in their last 2 games, if they now play outside the Div. ...This system claims to be unbeaten since 1977...and I assume it doesn't happen very often... ...the only 2 results I can verify are Cards +12 over the Bears in 06 (Chic won by 1 point) [the point at which I found it], and Bills +10 over Dallas (Dallas won by 1 point again :unsure), which is the result it 'predicted'. I'm pretty sure the situation hasn't happened since. No rhyme, no reason... :cow
Top call Taza :clap thanks for that mate I saw this one early and it looked and interesting one! great work :ok
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Saints ML +120 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes You won't make a living betting against Matt Ryan at home. But I've watched a few of there games, and they are truly the definition of flying under the radar. But they have really just barely skated by on some of these games. Even when the stats are going against them. The last two home games were against GB and Baltimore which both could have (but didn't) win those games. If anyone can beat them at home, the Saints are a team I can see doing it. This is really a must-win game for them. Also a revenge situation with the Falcons going into the dome and beating the Saints in the beginning of the season.

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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

I agree that the Rams/Bradford have been struggling the last couple of games, but 49ers have struggled pretty well all year on the road. Two close losses against a good Atlanta and weak Carolina in October, with their only win at Cards - all games with Gore contributing heavily. In a poor division where all teams are struggling on the road, i think you have to go with the home team and favour Rams -2 @ 10/11 BET365.
Happy days:D
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks

Kansas -6.5 @ 2.16 :D Baltimore -6.5 @ 2.37 :D New England -9.5 @ 2.10 :D Green Bay -6.5 @ 2.42 :D :nana:nana:nana:nana Week 16: 6-0 (+8.05) Overall: 37-50 (+4.13) (Update at the end of the week)
6 straight with Steelers -20.5 and Cowboys - Cardinals over 46 :notworthy Awsome Blackcrow :clap
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Re: NFL Week Sixteen Picks Thanks red :cheers Atlanta - New Orleans under 48.5 @ 2.03 pinnacle Atlanta averages 123 yard per game (ranked 7th) when running the ball while QB Ryan has 3321 passing yards, for 25 TDs and 9 INTs as the passing game averages 227 yards per game (ranked 14th). He faces a New Orleans secondary that has allowed just 10 passing TD's all year, with an average of 195 passing yards per game allowed (ranked 4th). However their rush defence has allowed 117 yards per game (ranked 20th) and expect Atlanta to use Turner quite a bit to pound the ball, as this NO secondary is very good. QB Brees has 4122 passing yards, for 31 TDs and 19 INTs as he averages 282 passing yards per game (ranked 3rd) while the run game struggles with 98 rushing yards per game (ranked 25th). Atlanta's secondary has 19 INTs for the season (3rd best) as they average 227 passing yards allowed per season (ranked 22nd) while their rush defence allows 106 yards per game (ranked 12th). Like Atlanta to shut down the run, and look to them to drop an extra player in coverage, as the secondary is opportunistic, and Brees has thrown quite a few INTs to go with his TDs. Atlanta has gone under the posted total in 5 of their 6 home games while NO has gone 8-6 for the season. This game is much more important to NO that Atlanta has the home side can still win next week against carolina to finish top, while NO are in danger if missing out on a wildcard spot if they lose here, so expect their defence to be up for this game. Week 16: 6-0 (+8.05) Overall: 37-50 (+4.13) (Update at the end of the week)

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