BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY)

[Aidymac]

Tritonville Lodge - Ludlow 3:20 Looks a rather nice price here tomorrow, i genuinely thought this horse would be favourite. All its wins have come on good ground or better and tomorrow it has good ground which is very good. The switch to chasing has seen this horse run 2 very big races and if building on that it should be in with a right good chance tomorrow. 1 Point win @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 4:10 Nottingham - Norwegian Dancer - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Consistent yet frustrating 4 year old who has lots of ability and a high cruising speed but yet seems to find very little when asked to challenge. I've selected him on numerous occasions, watched him cruise through the race and end up as one of the last horses off the bridle but time and time again he has found very little. However, he now gets a chance to run on very testing ground and I think he may just be the type who could relish these conditions. He has only ever encountered very soft ground on one occasion which was his debut, he finished 5th of 12, hit 1/4 in running and looked like the likely winner. He didn't have the pace in the final furlong of 7 and ended up 2 lengths back in 5th. Today he'll be racing over 10f which is his ideal trip over which he has achieved his only 2 career wins. He has also run over this C&D back in July where he finished 3rd of 11, 3 lengths behind Spoken who has since won off a mark of 92. The 2nd placed horse, Bahamian Music, also won next time out on soft ground over this C&D. My selection finished 1 length behind Ailsa Craig last time out at Ripon in a class 3 contest, he steps down in grade here, carrying more weight but back amongst worse horses which should help. The horse who finished directly behind him in 5th has also won since so his form looks reasonably solid and it's only a matter of time before he gets his neck in front again. Norwegian Dancer will be running off a mark of 79 today, at his peak he was rated 8lbs higher and has won off a mark 4lbs larger than tomorrows, he's certainly on a winnable mark and if he gets some luck in running I think he stands a solid chance here off a mark that is below his abilities. He has also came second on Good to Soft ground before, so that combined with his debut run on Soft ground indicates he may just like the conditions today, he certainly struck me as one who would. Norwegian Dancer is trained by Ed McMahon who has been in great form over the last 6 weeks with 10 winners from 30 runners giving him a highly impressive 33% strike rate since the last week of August. He also won this race last year with a 4 year old horse who had a quite similar profile to my selection. This is the only horse Ed sends to Nottingham tomorrow, he has a good 14% strike rate at the course, that jumps up massively to 25% when Graham Gibbons rides at the course for him with 7 winners from 27 rides with another 11 placing. Gibbons knows the horse well and has been on board him on 7 occasions and has yet to get him over the line in first, with a bit of luck I think that could change today. Gibbons comes here for only 2 rides tomorrow and he has been riding reasonably well of late with a few winners in the last couple of weeks, he rides the course well and shows a profit when riding here, he also has a very good 14% strike rate at Nottingham. If he can get the Ed McMahon trained gelding to settle in mid-division he may be staying on best of the rest on this testing ground. He certainly has the ability to and he was 9/2 second favourite in my book just behind the Fahey horse Gritstone, who I rate as a big danger but worse value. The 8/1 on Norwegian Dancer is far too big and I'd say he'll be backed into something a lot lower than that. Hopefully he'll run well and justify medium sized stakes.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 5.10 Nottingham - Residency 0.5pts E/W (14/1 Bet365 BOG) Has dropped to a career low mark and with 6 furlongs on soft ground looking like his ideal conditions should go close. Bryan Smart's stable look to be hitting form with 2 winners on Tuesday and the young jockey has had 3 places and 1 winner from his last 5 rides. Should go very close.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 17:30 Kempton Bit drunk so will keep this brief so I'm really confident on the chances of Alana Banana to bag this 5f low-grade handicap. Was very well backed in the morning of it's last race, from 40/1 to 15/2 in no time at all, and even heard on the grapevine of this being a very well fancied horse. Drifted to 33/1 which almost showed this horses performance in the race, was slowly out the stalls and then ran very poorly. However, the main thing I took from the race was that 5f will really suit my selection. Showed really decent early speed to catch up with the pack last time out when slowly starting, which said to me that 5f will really suit. Doesn't stay very well which is quite obvious, but I think the minimum trip will be right for it. Has a near perfect draw on the inside, if can get a decent break and not start ridiculously slowly again (only done so once) can be a serious force in what is, a very poor race. EW @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 16:10 Nottingham Quite a few of those lining up today will like the soft ground conditions and out of those I like Tamanaco best who finally got his head in front for the first time in handicap company LTO. Was raced three times as a 2 year old in 2009 where he won on his last start of the season at Pontefract in a class 4 maiden race. That was in soft ground and he won cosily enough by three quarters of a length. Started handicapping this year off a mark of 79 and after 2 poor efforts at Beverley and Thirsk in good ground, he went on to win at Haydock LTO. This was his second run in soft going and he won in decent fashion by 1 and a half lengths. He was denied a clear run over 2 furlongs out so I thought he did well to make progress and go on to win the race afterwards. Raised 4lbs back up to a mark of 79 today but it seems as if he is still on the upgrade so must have a chance of landing this race, especially in the soft ground which he quite clearly handles. Quite a decent race this, Captain Dancer should have claims having won in soft ground, only raised 2lbs from his win LTO and also drops down in grade. Gritstone has also been running in better company but unsure how he will cope with the ground conditions. Win Tamanaco @ 6/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 3:40 Nottingham - Audacious - Back Improved nicely from 1st start to 2nd start and should go in here. The form of the 4th he achieved lto looks strong in the context of this race and I expect Ryan moore's mount to win this with a bit to spare 1pt win @ 11/10 Bet365 BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 230 Towcester: Mauricetheathlete EW ( 12/1 WH) Trappy handicap but most are exposed or badly handicapped, one that is slipping down the weights is Mauricetheathlete, ran very well in a couple of novice hurdles last year and was given a rating of 111 for his handicap debut, had 4 runs now and hasnt been disgraced in any of them and now finds himself on 103, the jockey takes another 7 off so has every chance in this company to get in the frame.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 3.50 Ludlow Call at Midnight stays this far and further so no stamina concerns but will need someone to chase a good pace but he did appear to win really well at Fontwell last time out staying on strongly to win a tad cosy a 4lb rise isnt harsh and if the race is run to suit he is a danger to everyone. He is also lightly raced and open to improvement yet. 0.5pt e/w Call at Midnight 8/1 sj

[James Bondage]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) Trap 4 ROUGH PICKINS (2:57 Belle Vue); SP; 1pt win bet Looks good to me this black jacket. Has been running with credit in a grade higher lately despite suffering crowding each time. On the outside of a trio of slow starters it is unlikely she will suffer that fate today, early on anyway. Trap 6 looks a danger but this is just her second run back from a near-month break, and will likely still be a fraction short of very top fitness.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 3:10 West Leake Bridge @ Nottingham -Been running in higher class races and has finished 2nd on soft ground.Michael Hills is in good form and takes the ride for his dad whoa is also in good form after 2 winners on Monday 1 pt Win bet @ 7/1 Coral

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) PRESTBURY KNIGHT 3.20 Ludlow. 0.5 points each way. Needs to buck his ideas up, but does have the form and ability to go close today. The trip and ground's fine and stays on a mark of 114 for today, so 'if' he fancies it, which he doesn't more often than not, it's there for him. The price makes the bet at a nice looking 40s on the exchanges.

[SWFC_Naps.]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 3:40 @ Nottingham - Audacious - 1pt win 11/10 Finished 2l behind Picture Editor LTO who was an impressive 1/12 winner yesterday. Sire won a £875k race on soft ground so I have no fears about this race today, should be winning this without having to get too serious and onto bigger and better things. Holds good entires for next year and this should be a good stepping stone to those prospects.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) Kemp 7.00 - Rowan Light - win at 13/2 BOG with Stan James Only CD winner in the field and most of his rivals tonight look better over 10 furlongs rather than 12 furlongs He won here last time out in a similar race and has gone up 5lbs, but he's a lightly raced type with just 7 career runs and could well be improving recorded a good speed fig when winning here I'm worried about this Charlton runner coming off 3 runs down the field in maiden races............I hate those horses ! The price of my horse is drifting, I'm not sure why that should be, but it hasn't put me off

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) STARSHINE 7.00 Kempton. 1 point win. Needs to improve, but from a good yard, up in trip and into a handicap this evening. That's enough or me to show an interest, especially around the 16/1 mark. Should run a much better and improved race this evening.