Pep004

Bordeaux - Paris Saint Germain
Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.826 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 10 Feb 2017, 20:45
 
Match between 7th and 2nd team of Ligue 1 will be played on Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux and it will start at 20:45 on Friday. Bordeaux is coming to match after comfortable win in Caen (0-4). I need to admit that result did surprise me, but when I saw the goals, picture was clearer. First goal came because of critical mistake of 21 year old Leborgne, second goal after disastrous reaction of goalkeeper, third again after bad covering of Leborgne, who was totally lost in this game and I don't know why Garande let him on the pitch for 90 minutes. He was included also in 4th goal, and for whole match he had big big problems with Kamano. PSG is coming to match after unfair win, while they scored in last seconds of the match from clear offside. Even though they were much much better side, totally in control of the match, Areola made critical mistake and de Preville scored in 86th minute. Trapp is back in training process, but it's not sure if he will be in the goal this time, as Emery said that he still has full confidence for both goalkeepers. Also Marco Veratti is back, which means that only Pastore and Krychowiak will miss the match. If PSG wouldn't have match against Barcelona on Tuesday, my stake would be higher. Without doubts, quality is on their side, importance of the match as well, as they have chance to put pressure on Monaco, while Nice is back on winning tracks as well, so not even second place is not sure. Thiago Silva has spoken to the media and admit that Emery is tactically great coach, and that players are more and more adapted to his style of thinking, football, etc. I am talking about that for month and half, that if players will get Emery's ideas, than they could be much much stronger in future. Motta is suspended for the match in CL, so we can expect him on the pitch tonight. The only one who might be rested is Draxler, but I am not even sure about that. This match is too important, as failure can cause 5 points gap with Monaco and maybe even 3 points gap with Nice. On the other hand we have Bordeaux who's key players of midfield are Toulalan (33y), Plasil (35y) and "newbie" Sankhare. I expect nothing but defending by them, while in attack it won't be as easy as it was in Caen in midweek. All in all odds on PSG -0,75 jumped from 1,63 on 1,83 after mid-week round, and all of that because of 0-4 win of Bordeaux in Caen? I disagree with that. Cup match finished with 1-4, while I can perfectly remember match of Monaco here (0-4). PSG will take this one!

Unfortunately I didn't as I decided that 3 picks will be enough.
P.s. OM will win this.

I decided to skip Monaco in this week as well, as Montpellier has Boudebouz back in team, and specially because Jardim could rest Bernardo Silva as he is slightly injured and CL is coming soon... He is by far the most creative player in this league and even if Monaco has lot of good players, he is the one who can break any kinds of defences.

Nice - St. Etienne
PICK: Nice AH -0,5 @2,07 SBO 6/10
Match between 3rd and 5th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Allianz Riviera in Nice and it will start on Wednesday at 19:00.
Nice lost derby de la cote d'Azur with 3-0, but they didn't play that bad. Specially not in first half. In second guys from Monaco have shown how accurate they are with conversion rate above 20% again. President of Nice said that they won't give up, and that they will response in shortest possible time. Belhanda came in in 64th minute and I think that this time he will be prepared for whole match. He is crucial player in Nice's final third, scoring, assisting and creating chances. 
St. Etienne is coming with boosted morale, but I see few chances for them in this match. They have still some problems with injuries, and for me they are far from dangerous team in attack. It's big focus on defence in this team and even though they won the derby with Lyon, I think that they will have tough 90 minutes. That goalkeeper Ruffier is one of they're best players tells a lot about this team. Well, he is still injured.
So we have two teams coming into match from derby, one losing it and one winning it, and I am going with first one. Crazy? Maybe for someone, but not for me. Nice have too much of quality. I am never talking about Balotelli, because in my opinion he is not much better than Plea, but both of team are more than solid attackers and St. Etienne don't have player like that. If I would compare all the positions, I think that Nice would be at least equal or better. Ball possession will be hugely on side of Nice which means more possibility to create chances and on the other hand also less possibilities for chances of St. Etienne. Maybe we'll see Favre going back to system with 4 defenders, but for me those odds are simply too high. It's true that teams are close on league table, but take a good look. There is same difference between Nice (3.) and St.Etienne (5.) than St. Etienne (5.) and Angers (18.)! So there is no reason to put those two teams in same class. St. Etienne will need a lots of luck to take something from this match and in my opinion they won't get anything here. Straight on Nice!

Why 0?  My week was 3-2 actually. 
http://pep004-football-analysis.blogspot.fr/2017/02/post-match-analysis.html
 
p.s. oh, I see it's only England. But anyway, I was without prediction. So, that's - not 0%.
edit: hahaha, legend.  
 

You have an answer on your question in your nickname!  It was another match of City where they created enough to be 3 goals in front in first half and then they almost paid for their bad finishing. 
And about Aguero. He missed 7 matches because of his own stupidity. But he still remains they're key attacker somehow. You'll see that in CL. I would say that we'll see "big return of Kun" this season.. but first we'll read some stories about bad relationship with coach etc.  And than after season.. in summer transfer window, we'll see what will happen.  

Without words.. If this team would have one solid striker, they would be in top6. Without joking.

Valencia - Eibar
Full Event Away +0.75 (AH) @ 1.840 4/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 04 Feb 2017, 20:45
 
Match between 15th and 9th placed team in La Liga will be played on Mestalla in Valencia and it will start at 20:45 on Saturday. Valencia is showing better results recently, but Prandelli surprisingly quitting the job has shown that things are not great in club. Voro took over the team and they are doing well (personally I don't know why they even appointed Prandelli, as Voro knows players for years and knows also the politic of club and if anyone is able to adapt than Voro is. They signed Orellana and Zaza, who will probably need some time to adapt. Today Voro will be without 5 important players - captain Parejo, Nani, Perez, Munir and Rodrigo. Eibar in this season is just proving that they are serious La Liga mid-table team. I can remember many people being doubtful about them, but this season they are once again doing fine under Mendilibar. There won't be any bigger changes in lineup. Escalante and Luna are back, while they will remain without Riesgo, Kike and Junca. Let's do the math here. Odds on Valencia are around 1,85 which means that bookmakers sees the match like 53,5% for Valencia to win and 46,5% for Eibar to draw or to win. Under the circumstances (without 5 important players) Valencia is overestimated here and as they play 2-2 against Malaga at home and 1-1 against Granada, I don't know why would they easily beat Eibar who is toughest team than those two.

Dijon - Paris Saint Germain
Full Event Away -1.50 (AH) @ 2.090 4/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 04 Feb 2017, 20:00
 
Match between 13th and 3rd placed team of Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Gaston-Gerard in Dijon, Dijon is currently sitting on 13th place with only 2 points more than relegation zone is and I think that they won't pay that much of attention to tonight's game as they will play against Metz and Caen in next 7 days. Those two matches will be much more important, and as they played last match on Tuesday, and they are far from the team with depth in squad I believe that they will think about next games. Officially they will miss midfielder Sammaritano and defender Abdelhamid. For PSG situation is totally different. Monaco just showed how strong they are and put another 3 points on their account and now they are leaders of Ligue 1. PSG has huge squad, even if 3 good players are on bench or injured, they can still put strong lineup. They are 6 points behind Monaco now and they need to follow them. PSG is simply "for 2 or more goals bigger team". They will take match deadly seriously with Cavani, Lucas and Draxler up front, while Rabiot will substitute injuerd Verratti in midfield and Areola injured Trapp. I am saying for whole second part of season, that they are becoming better, they proved that in Rennes in cup match (0-4) and I think that Emery's men will extend they're good run.
 
 

Hull City v Liverpool
Like I said midweek Hull have improved massively under Marco Silva. Their shot ratio is much better and yet again they were better than a relegation side when getting a draw against Man Utd in Old Trafford. Liverpool are better against sides who tend to come at them more which is why their record against the top 6 is so impressive but have been involved in the two of the four biggest shocks this season at the bookie's prices when losing at home to Swansea and away at Bournemouth. At the prices I think Hull are good value to take something from this game and again I'll dutch the draw and home win.
0.8pts Hull Win @ 7/1 Betfair
1.2pts Draw @ 4/1 Paddy Power

Hi guys, last one was a bad week end obviously. To be honest, it was the case for all the leagues isn't it ? Lazio beatten at home by Chievo, Draw for Naples against poor Palerme. Draws for Barça and Atletico... Good days for Books !
Here I go again cautiously.
Nantes vs Nancy Home Win
Nantes derseved the win in the derby. Inattention, lack of concentration, in the last minutes and the victory goes away. Nevertheless, it will not happen tomorrow. A good home team against a poor away one, a good mercato as underlined by @Pep004. Last argument, Nancy played 4 matches since the 21th of january, every 3 days. Nantes 3. With the current level of form training led by Conceiçao, difference will be occure in physique form. Advantage to Nantes.
Dijon vs PSG Away Win
Not yet convinced by PSG even if Draxler is a finally a good choice (compared to Jese or Ben Harfa). But here levels are too opposite to expect another result. We will know who is this PSG against Barça, in a few days.
Lille vs Lorient Over and BTS
Risky bet but just look at the stats and you will follow me. Lorient need points, they can't stay behind and it's not their DNA. Last week, Lille didn't win for me, it's Lyon who lost, missing many occasions.
Some advices :
Bordeaux smells good but this team is on my black list, as you want.
TFC is sinking, sure for me that Dupraz will leave before the end of the year.
MHSC and the Racine's tragedy. It's over, Hantz was fired. Jean-Louis Gasset is on the bench. Historic of the club, Laurent Blanc 's assistant. Not a young one, but he's just missed his wife... What is his spirit, his energy ??

I will start Spanish week with pick on Espanyol +0,5, odds around @1,78. In my opinion there is no reason for Espanyol being such a underdog. Pretty equal match in my eyes, so there is above 65% for x2, which means there is value above 1,60.

Yes. It's a shame that I was a pussy, not taking +0,25 with much nicer odds.  

Great shout on Español pep. Finished 1-0 right?

I will start Spanish week with pick on Espanyol +0,5, odds around @1,78. In my opinion there is no reason for Espanyol being such a underdog. Pretty equal match in my eyes, so there is above 65% for x2, which means there is value above 1,60.

I know and I totally agree with you. But odds were around 1,95 and I didn't agree with that. It's quite different now as odds are slowly going closer to 2,10. It's also interesting that Bet365 put it on 2,10 while Pinnacle holds 2,03.  Well.. I wouldn't touch this match, but I just said that if I would I would rather cover bigger part here (x2). Let's say that in my eyes is aprox. around 45% / 35% / 20%, which means that there is no value on Chelsea under 2,30.   

Sorry, I haven't read it in good way. We are on same bridge this time. I am actually thinking about goals here, as no one can stop Monaco's attack, while Nice is making lots of mistakes in defensive positioning, but they are hell of a team in build up and scoring.

@andrewcalo why are we all the time on the opposite hill?   In my opinion there is no value in Monaco odds today. Honestly I think that they will win but I would never give them more than 60% to win the match.  
e: Many people who likes backing favourites will take AH -1 here, because of nicer odds. But I think that it could be a hell of research to analyse how many times this bet would go throw / be voided / be lost. 

Hi guys! I'm new here, but i've been reading you guys for a while... Love the topics and your analysis... As i'm french, please excuse me for potential future grammatical mistakes. I'd love to share feelings, advices and tips with you on the ligue 1 and the 4 other big leagues on their respective topics.. 
Badbeat on Marseille last night for some of you guys, hope you'll rebound on next games... But as a PSG fan, i'm always smiling when Marseille loose.. ;-)
I wouldn't pick Monaco, even if they have a pretty good chance to win.. They won't have the stadium support, trust me, the whole town of Nice is just a few km away, it will be Nice fans all over the stadium, so don't count on Monaco's public.. It won't be a real home game... It's really a risky match. Plus, many Nice players weren't there during the last average games of january.. Now Balotelli is back, their midfield is now stronger with Serri who came back, Cyprien is getting better, and Plea can start to score again... And we've seen monaco's defense struggling against PSG.. Of course Nice isn't Psg, but still... A draw is highly possible.. too muck to take the risk for me..
I'm a fan of "2 games combination bets", so for this week end, I would put my money on:
- Lille in a draw no bet at 1,33, and a win of PSG at Dijon.
The win of PSG at Dijon makes no doubt for me, it will be a hard win because Dijon at home is good, beating Lyon 4-2 and had a deserved draw against Monaco 1-1, it could be probably risky to bet on the number of goals... But I see Paris rising and becoming unstoppable soon, they've just done a great match at Rennes... I really think they're gonna crush Dijon...
Thanks for this topic about ligue 1!  Good luck!
 

But it's not easy to play with one player less. While Espanyol is pretty decent team. But well, I am happy that we agree about the decision. In my opinion it was not even a penalty.
This time I will back Espanyol away and still deciding about Valencia to win or over 2,5. I will publish lot's of analysis on my site tomorrow.
 

@StevieDay1983 I will respond on what you tagged @FCNA this time as I am living in Nantes as well. Nantes brought three new players at the end of transfer window (Nakoulma - national player of Burkina Faso who just lost yesterday in semis against Egypt after penalty kicks; Oliveira - 24y midfielder from Porto, who I believe that will help team as he is incredible midfielder, even though I think that midfield of Nantes is already quite solid; Heurtaux - 28y defender, played 104 games for Udinese. Personally I don't know him, but he played for Cannes between 2008-2012, so he knows Ligue 1 pretty well. I saw that they tried to sell captain Vizcarrondo who's time has passed in my opinion, but he didn't want to leave so he stayed in club. Team looks much much stronger right now than in start of the season, but main difference is in coach. I think that Toure would never receive chance under Girard. Conceicao brought energy and freshness and we were able to see improvements really quickly. I went on few training sessions and everything is much louder, more intensive, much bigger focus on attacking sessions than before. Also as a coach during the match, he is trying to give his energy to the team, he is jumping, giving orders, pressing on referee's,.. I believe that it's hard to see that on the tv, but you can easily see it on the stadium. On the other hand we need to admit that also squad is much stronger, but even if wingers were better (Iloki back, Pardo, Harit moved to winger position), there is still problem with attackers. In Coupe they prepared bunch of solid chances, but Sala is just Sala, and as long as he will be the best goalscorer of this team, we can not compete with high positions. I hope that Nakoulma will find his place in attack, even though he played a lot as a winger. I cannot help myself, but I am just far from being fan of Sala. And as I hear on the stadium, I am not the only one.
Besides.. Riou is sitting on the bench for a while. First he injured himself, and Dupe substituted him really really good, being man of the match against Montpellier as well, and for now he is nr.1. But it could change soon.

But it's not easy to play with one player less. While Espanyol is pretty decent team. But well, I am happy that we agree about the decision. In my opinion it was not even a penalty.
This time I will back Espanyol away and still deciding about Valencia to win or over 2,5. I will publish lot's of analysis on my site tomorrow.
 

I would like to say that Payet already had a debut against Lyon in cup.  They will get two players back from ACN, but anyway I think that OM will grab that win here. In general I agree with both bets, while I am really attracted by OM to score more than 1,5 goals here.

Mets have the third worst defensive line with 38 conceded goals. Total has 12 to 21 over 2,5 and 6 to 9 over 2,5 in the stadium. Marseille whole league has 12 to 22 over 2,5 and 8 to 11 over 2,5 and the same as the goal goal.
The two groups have very good offensive lines and can offer us an open game with many goals
FC METZ vs OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.95

I've gone with Marseille to win at 1.91.
Metz have been woeful for weeks and can't buy a clean sheet. They also have two sendings off to deal with from last weak which should weaken them slightly. Marseille have a TERRIBLE away record this campaign winning only twice. however they have a dangerous attack when motivated and I see a team on the back of two good results and the potential debut of Payet as a good bet at this price against the 2nd worst side in the league.