Pep004

But it's not easy to play with one player less. While Espanyol is pretty decent team. But well, I am happy that we agree about the decision. In my opinion it was not even a penalty.
This time I will back Espanyol away and still deciding about Valencia to win or over 2,5. I will publish lot's of analysis on my site tomorrow.
 

Espanyol deserved what? Penalty? Hardly. Red card? 100% not.

As I like to discuss about football, I see that I will need to re-join this part of forum, as there is not as much interests by other forum members in "my leagues".  
Hull bought Grosicki from Rennes, and I think that he could be a decent player for them. Anyway, they were just lucky yesterday. Really really lucky. United deserved to win. 

Alaves - Atletico Madrid
Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.88 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 28 Jan 2017, 16:15
 
Match between 12th and 4th placed team in Spanish La Liga will be played on Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz in Basque region and it will start at 16:15 on Saturday. Alaves is on pretty comfortable 12th place, 10 points above relegation zone. They didn't lose in last three home matches, actually only Espanyol and Real Madrid were able to beat them on Mendizorroza. They are without bigger injury concerns, without suspended players, so they are well prepared to make another big result in history of the club. Atletico Madrid is facing different problems, as they are not on positions they were counting on before the start of the season. They brought some good players, to make squad stronger to compete with Real Madrid and Barcelona, but for now it looks that Sevilla took their place. They will be without captain Gabi for this match, but we can expect Griezmann, Godin and Filipe back in squad after being rested in cup match against Eibar. Also Carrasco and Koke played only for last 30 minutes so team won't be that affected with tiredness as it could be. Atletico Madrid simply needs to win this match. They started well in Bilbao, but they failed. Not their opponent is far from Bilbao quality, but it's still in Basque region and I am sure that they will give 100% to surprise Atletico. Simeone's squad simply needs 3 points, to shut down the critics, but mainly to start running in front of Sociedad who has match on Bernabeu (they could surprise, but I think that they won't) and also to stop falling behind 3rd placed team, right now the gap is 6 points. Individually it's impossible to compare those two teams as Atletico has much stronger squad, but it will be really important how they will go in the match. I think that they are eager to show that they are still one of the strongest clubs in the world, and Alaves is team who will try to play. They won't defend with all strength, they will try to score and that's the way Atletico likes, and that's why I expect that Alaves will suffer because of Atletico's style.

Angers SCO - Metz
Full Event Away +0.50 (AH) @ 1.877 4/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 28 Jan 2017, 20:00
 
Match between 19th and 18th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Jean-Bouin in Angers, and it will start at 20:00. Angers can not wait to have Pepe back in squad, but that won't happen yet. He will be available in midweek, when they have a cup match against Caen. Bamba is coming back to squad, while experiment of the coach - central defender Pavlović in attack will probably stay the same, which is just the prove that Angers has quite big problems. Metz is coming to match after convincing home win against Montpellier, and big point from Nice. Atmosphere in club is getting better and even if they will miss suspended Biševac, while everything else will be more or less the same. The fact which bothers me here is that Angers is in position of favourite. In situation as they are, they cannot be favourites in my eyes. Also momentum is on away side, so I am taking this asian handicap here. Both teams has qualities which can bring them in lead, but all in all home pitch is only advantage of Angers here.A, but as mentioned above, momentum is on away side, so for me this match is much more on 50/50 than odds are showing.

Lyon - Lille
First Half Home -0.50 (AH) @ 2.130 4/10 SBO
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 28 Jan 2017, 17:00
 
Match between 4th and 14th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Parc Olympique Lyonnais in eastern suburb of Lyon, Décines-Charpieu. Lyon is coming to match after big win against Marseille and I believe that they will extend great atmosphere at the club with win against Lille. Except Diakhaby all players participated on todays training so there is no bigger problems with squad in their team. Depay who played little bit more than 10 minutes against OM could get more minutes this time. In my opinion he will be good reinforcement for OL. Lille is coming to match after 3 draws in row. They were behind as against St. Etienne as against Rennes and equalised in last 20 minutes, while match against Dijon ended without goals. Mavuba is still injured, and they are hardly competitive in midfield. It will be even harder against Lyon. Lyon was already team with some really great individuals and with Depay, their squad is even stronger and wider. As mentioned many times this season, they are capable to create chance through the middle, through wing, with through balls, from direct and indirect set-pieces, and of course also from individual actions. Lille will probably try to play defensively and try to surprise Lyon with counter-attacks, but in my opinion OL possess too much of offensive quality and I expect them to score early in the match and than smartly drive it till the end of the match. Of course it's not all about attack with Lyon, but they are also pretty solid in defence. In my opinion Lopes is one of the best if not the best goalkeeper. After loss against Caen they bounced back well and I think that we'll see convincing win of home team.

Marseille - Montpellier HSC
Full Event Home -0.50 (AH) @ 1.79 5/10 SBO
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 27 Jan 2017, 20:45
 
Match between 7th and 13th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Vélodrome in Marseille and it will start at 20:45 on Friday. Marseille lost derby match again Lyon 3-1, which was just a prove that they're still not on the level Rudi Garcia wants them to be. Lyon actually punished their mistakes and that's why win looks so easy (3-1). Doria scored, but he made crucial mistake for 3rd goal of Lyon and they should avoid those kind of situations if they really wants to reach top places. I still believe in OM, I can see big progress of this team and now with Sansone they have another quality midfielder and they're midfield will get stronger. Thauvin was again one of most active players of the team and even if they will succeed to bring Payet back on Velodrome, I think that Thauvin will somehow stay their most dangerous player. Team needs to bounce back after two defeats (Monaco, Lyon). I was analysing match of Montpellier on last week, and I was on side of underdog - Metz, who actually won 2-0. Montpellier lost important midfielder Sansone, who is now in OM, while Boudebouz and also Ninga are still injured. They are still one of the worst away teams in France, loosing 6 matches in row, also against opponents like Metz, Nantes, Lille, Toulouse, who are not on the level of Marseille in my opinion. Marseille will be in possession, they will create more chances for sure and everything will depend on how efficient they will be in front of goal. Montpellier scored only one goal through counter-attack this season, so I am not afraid of that fact. Main threat for Montpellier will be Thauvin on right wing, and Montpellier is among the teams who are covering flanks pretty badly and that's why I expect lots of problems on both flanks actually.

Alaves - Atletico Madrid
Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.88 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 28 Jan 2017, 16:15
 
Match between 12th and 4th placed team in Spanish La Liga will be played on Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz in Basque region and it will start at 16:15 on Saturday. Alaves is on pretty comfortable 12th place, 10 points above relegation zone. They didn't lose in last three home matches, actually only Espanyol and Real Madrid were able to beat them on Mendizorroza. They are without bigger injury concerns, without suspended players, so they are well prepared to make another big result in history of the club. Atletico Madrid is facing different problems, as they are not on positions they were counting on before the start of the season. They brought some good players, to make squad stronger to compete with Real Madrid and Barcelona, but for now it looks that Sevilla took their place. They will be without captain Gabi for this match, but we can expect Griezmann, Godin and Filipe back in squad after being rested in cup match against Eibar. Also Carrasco and Koke played only for last 30 minutes so team won't be that affected with tiredness as it could be. Atletico Madrid simply needs to win this match. They started well in Bilbao, but they failed. Not their opponent is far from Bilbao quality, but it's still in Basque region and I am sure that they will give 100% to surprise Atletico. Simeone's squad simply needs 3 points, to shut down the critics, but mainly to start running in front of Sociedad who has match on Bernabeu (they could surprise, but I think that they won't) and also to stop falling behind 3rd placed team, right now the gap is 6 points. Individually it's impossible to compare those two teams as Atletico has much stronger squad, but it will be really important how they will go in the match. I think that they are eager to show that they are still one of the strongest clubs in the world, and Alaves is team who will try to play. They won't defend with all strength, they will try to score and that's the way Atletico likes, and that's why I expect that Alaves will suffer because of Atletico's style.

and? if the average odds of your tips are 1.50, you need to win 66.6% to break even, whereas if the average odds are 2.50 then you would only need to win 40% to break even.

St Etienne - Angers SCO
Full Event Home -0.50 (AH) @ 1.909 4/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 22 Jan 2017, 17:00
 
Match between 9th and 19th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint Etienne and it will start at 17:00. People who follow me for a longer period knows, that St. Etienne is not among my favourite teams in Ligue 1. Mostly because of unatractive football, with big focus on defence and lack of attacking football. Anyway they are sitting on 9th spot with 27 points and positive goal difference (+2). Last two matches in league finished with draw, and I think that things will change this time. They are still missing some important players, but some of them will be back for this match. Angers is team with most missing players because of ACF. Besides Pepe, Ekambi, Ndoye and Diedhiou, also Ketke, Andreu and Letellier are injured, so they're in big troubles with lineup. It's true that Bordeuax had some problems against them, but they were playing at home, while now they will be guests on Geoffroy-Guichard so the crowd won't be on their side. I can see value in those odds on Saint Etienne as they are much experienced Ligue 1 team, they have Hamouma back for this match, so their offensive line will be stronger, and regarding recent position, they have chance to win 2 places and be on 7th spot after this week. Next match will be in Toulouse, and after that they will play against Lyon and Nice where it will be hard to find points. Strong defence and counter-attacks. That's the St. Etienne's way, and this kind of football won't suit Angers. Perfect bet here is actually St. Etienne win to nil with crazy odds. But as I am not in best form recently, I will stay at "lower" odds.

It will be interesting to get @FCNA's view on this game. Maybe he's gone into hiding until after it. I once managed Nantes on Football Manager back in the day and also used them in Career Mode on FIFA so they are very much my adopted French club. I hope they can get the win. It would continue to make Ligue 1's title race very fascinating. Sadly, I can't see it. That said, PSG have lost two of their last three away games to so-called weaker opposition. Nantes are also coming off the back of four wins on the bounce. If ever there was a time for an upset...

Bastia - Nice
Full Event Away -0.50 (AH) @ 2.520 4/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 20 Jan 2017, 20:45
 
Match between 17th and 2nd placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani, Both teams already lost in both cups, so focus is totally on league now. Weather prognostic is fine as it is showing temperatures between 6-11°C with really really small possibility of rain for tomorrow and it's 7°C right now, so pitch should be fine. Bastia is coming to mach after solid first half and disappointing second half in Nancy, where they lost 1-0. That things are even worse, they lost also they key offensive player St. Maximine due to red card, while coach won't risk with attacker Crivelli neather, as he returned after injury recently and he won't play two matches in row. He is not included in squad against Nice. In last home match they lost against Marseille, who was better opponent, but Corsicans were fighting strongly and had 1-1 till 92th minute. After that they were trashed by PSG in cup (7-0), and as already mentioned on last match they lost against Nancy with 1-0. Coach of Bastia will be able to use both new players Oniangue (Wolwes) and Rose (Lorient) but after few training sessions I don't believe that they could be serious reinforcement. Favre's guys were sitting on highest position over the winter break, but in first match after it they lost this position as they played poor draw against Metz at home. Both teams had chances, but as Favre said result was pretty fair. They have enormous number of injured players. One of key players in midfield this season Seri is on ACF, and recently they lost one of the best wb's in league Perreira for 6 weeks. Well, I will focus on players who can play.. and in my opinion Favre can still send strong lineup on the pitch. Instead of Perreira, Soquet will probably start on his position. By the way, Soquet was named as man of the match against Metz. On the other side Favre has first choice Dealbert available, so flanks will be fine. Up front Balotelli is back, who will join Plea who recently extended his contract for 2 years (they rejected 50M offer from China!). In my calculations, there is great value on Nice. Bookmakers are giving them only good 40% to win the match and I would add aprox. 5-10% here. They're game style is much more clear. Without Crivelli and St. Maximine they're options in attack are minimised. Chief commander of Nice's defence is still here - Dante, Cyprien as holding midfielder and great set-piece taker as well, while Balotelli and Plea will need to prove their qualities up-front. Who knows Favre knows that he loves through balls, and Nice is team who scored high number of goals in this way. Bastia on the other will try a lot with shots from distance, but their problem will be defending those through balls as they received a lot goals in this way. Also individual qualities are strongly on away side. I hope that this time Balo will chose great performance instead of red performance. Anyway, in my opinion odds on Nice are simply too high there.

Bastia scored less than one goal per match and receives approximately 1.5 goals per game, which is why it has a total of 12 in the league in 20 under 2,5 and seven in ten under 2,5 home
The Bastia scored less than one goal per match and receives approximately 1.5 goals per game, which is why it has a total of 12 in the league in 20 under 2,5 and seven in ten under 2,5 home
The Nice has the best defensive record in the category and that is one reason, which is in second place. And this total has 12 to 20 under 2,5 and seven to nine under 2,5 away
SC BASTIA vs OGC NICE @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.72

Yes, he wants the whole team to defend collectively. This is why he bought Gabriel Jesus who I believe will go on to replace Aguero. Obviously this wont happen straight away as GJ is only 19 and South American players take longer to the settle in EPL, especially when they've come straight from South America. Gabriel Jesus will help City defend from the front and is definately the kind of centre forward that Pep has been craving. Aguero's days at City are numbered.
If Pep and Mourinho don't get petulant and quit / get sacked then the Manchester clubs will become the dominant forces in EPL for the foreseeable future.

I understand all of that. Specially how hardly are some journalists trying to "destroy" him. But IMO:
He can still use his style everywhere, but this team is still far from what he wants and as written in article, he demanded full backs.. and he didn't get them. He was counting on Vincent, and he is injured. So we could say that his 3 main demands weren't fulfilled.
His style can not beat English one? Why did he beat (probably one of the strongest ever) Manchester United in CL finals? Why Arsenal with 5-1? I know that answers of haters will probably be the quality of the teams. What about the quality of United? With Ronaldo, Rooney, Tevez up front? But don't forget the chagnes in Barcelona (Ronaldinho, Deco, year after also Eto'o - three key fiures of Riijkard's Barcelona out; and bringing players as Busquets and Pedro from 3rd league (his B team) to first league. And that Bayern destroyed all the records with him, while two years before Borussia won Bundesliga.. Well.. it's post about City. They're still creating the highest number of chances in PL. They are missing clear chances as no one, and how can you prove him that his style is wrong if his team prepares everything to win. I think that if he would change style now, it would be a bad moment for team as well, because they would see that his coach doesn't trust them. If they would be unable to play, to create, he would stop. Believe me, that he wouldn't be trying that hard. 
Besides.. it's funny to read about "tiki-taka". What City is playing is not tiki-taka. He adapted counters in Germany, they needed whole season, but they did. Except Gundo (92% pass accuracy) not even one player wouldn't be able to totally adapt in short period. Not even KDB, maybe Silva. They are simply poor offensively, Sterling is by far the worst winger he has had in his team, but looks that he sees something in him. As I said.. even Yaya is playing only because he has no other choice. 
Otherwise.. he is the man who finished book of modern football. Football which is somehow "forced" to teach kids, as the most beautiful football, game in which you will enjoy. It was pretty odd for me to see that on coaching licence seminars, but it was not a problem, as I am fan of this style. Well.. Cruyff started it, Pep finished it. One of the reason why he came here is also because of great youth academy, but with some loans he just showed that club is still not there and that he doesn't want to put too big pressure on youngsters. I am seriously wondering what will happen with Gabriel Jesus. It will be tough for sure.
Again, I am not saying anything against any kind of thinking, I can inderstand all the provocations and everything, but I am sure that he will continue with his ideology. And as Thierry Henry said.. people thinks that with his style it's everything about attack. It's not true.. it's more about defence, and conceded goals worries him the most. It's all about reducing chances for him, but problem is that even of team has 5 chances, they can score 4-times. If Everton would be like this every match, then they would be the best team in the world. 
For me personally.. it's really good to see his team in this position, because now he will need to show his ability of adapting his system to totally different style of football. Unfortunately for them.. after the toughest defeat.. they will have match against Poch's Tottenham who is the only team who outplayed City this year.

Thanks to West Ham, they reached CL qualifies last year. They needs to be patient.  I get you, but just take a look how it would be, if they would score from those chances they're creating. I hope that there will be someone who will have will to put all the chances they've missed in one video. It could be really really funny.  But well.. I think that he believes in his style that much, that he won't change anything even if they won't reach CL. He will try to do everything to success with his style, but as you said. We'll see how patient Man City fans will be. 
I have feeling that even Yaya is playing because there is no one else.. at least on this position. We'll see at the end of season. Already formation with 4 defenders is enough big "punishment" for him for now, as he had other plans. You'll see in next season.
p.s. I am not saying IFs, I am saying that they are unlucky. And that when they will fix problem with finishing, they will be stronger. They are far from winners in head. You can see that in Stones, sometimes (too many times) he is lost like a puppy, but he has enormous quality for modern centre back. 

He has nothing to change. He perfectly knows that they played good enough in first half, and he will try to improve finishing. They needs to improve finishing, because thats funny what are they missing (even if in my opinion it was clear penalty on Sterling at 0-0). I don't know why people are expecting that he will start changing something. If he will win, he will try to do it in his way. If he will lose, then he will admit that he will get proof that he is not good enough. 
He is probably one of the most stubborn managers in the world, so I think that if they will want to see different City, then they will need to sack him.

@StevieDay1983 , Haha not really as I believe we have only lost once to Everton since being back in the EPL - our matches normally end in low scoring draws and I expect something similar on Saturday. If anything Everton's result against City will benefit us as Palace away will probably be a dank and drizzly comedown for the Everton wonder kids compared to the glamour of thrashing City - a distorted result I might add.
I like Everton very much this year, strong manager in Koeman and some of the most exciting young players in EPL right now. Problem is you should never expect consistency from young players, seen it time and time again over the seasons.
As for Palace, it wont be news to anyone that we are completely terrible at the momment although 3-0 flattered West Ham at the weekend, first goal was always crucial there. We do indeed miss Zaha, a very important player and top performer this year but our problems run a lot deeper than missing one player. Confidence is just so low right now, players have completely lost winning mentality and no signs of that recovering under Allardyce thus far.
Despite this I do not really fear Everton, infact I would prefer them to a fellow relegation battler or top 4 contender, they are in the goldilocks zone of teams to face right now imo.
I was hoping the two teams respective results would completely distort the market in Everton's favour for Saturday. So far this hasn't happened with markets pricing game accurately imo, Palace would need to be +0.50 approaching EVS for value play here. First things first mind, midweek FA Cup replay at home to Bolton, I don't expect us to field full strength team but should have some first teamers involved to buildup match fitness and confidence. Will wait to see how that pans out before returning to Palace V Everton, I suspect it will be a no bet situation given how accurate the prices have been in EPL this year.

He has nothing to change. He perfectly knows that they played good enough in first half, and he will try to improve finishing. They needs to improve finishing, because thats funny what are they missing (even if in my opinion it was clear penalty on Sterling at 0-0). I don't know why people are expecting that he will start changing something. If he will win, he will try to do it in his way. If he will lose, then he will admit that he will get proof that he is not good enough. 
He is probably one of the most stubborn managers in the world, so I think that if they will want to see different City, then they will need to sack him.

I watched first half hour.. and it should be at least 2 goals difference. I will watch it again and comment it then. I don't want to be smart.

man city should win but think both will score so minimum of three goals in the match. why do i think this? because because man city cannot afford drop of further points and having aguero and de bruyne is match made in heaven. they are likely to combine in attack and find some goals and ever since koeman arrived to everton lukaku has been crap. everton have been scoring even less i admit its tough place to come man city in my opinion is going to get the win

IMO 1-0, 0-0

Diego Costa rulled out of Chelsea squad against Leicester after argue with Conte.
Good question is if everything about this fight is true or not, and it's just a normal injury.
 
Otherwise I really like Tottenham 1st H bet (odds around 1,83) and Burnley dnb as well.

Big fan of Barcelona since I started watching football little bit seriously. I can remember '96 generation with Guardiola, Stoickhov, Ronaldo,.. and then after that with Guardiola as captain of the team with many Dutch players, so I can say that Barcelona is in my heart even if I am from Slovenia otherwise. Need to admit that I was big fan of French national team, specially because of Zidane (Juventus was also one of my favourite teams from childhood), Vieira, Henry,... and now I am living in France, in Nantes if I am more precise and I already fall in love with La Beaujoire even if it would be much better in 2000 when they were one of the best teams in France.
Older I am, more time I am devoting to different coaches. It's not hard to figure out who is my idol, but because I'm crazy about tactics I am following lots of coaches. Right after Guardiola, there is Cruyff for who I am happy that he doesn't need to see Barcelona right now. This club is becoming totally false. If Bartomeu will stay as president, then I am afraid that Barcelona will stay without Messi, Pique and Iniesta, while Rafinha, Denis Suarez and Sergi Roberto won't be good enough for first team, and club will bring stars from all around the world (Coutinho, etc.) and then we'll be another Real Madrid. It's really hard for me to see how La Masia is going down, how there is no more players from youth categories, as that is one of the biggest reasons why I am that proud of that club.
In 2012 Pep started match with La Masia team: Victor Valdes, Martin Montoya, Carles Puyol, Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba, Xavi, Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta, Pedro, Lionel Messi and Cesc Fabregas. And 5 years after that? Plastic fantastic.  We can be happy that Messi is still here... 
http://www.marca.com/en/football/barcelona/2017/01/11/58764755e5fdea2e788b4629.html
 
 

Big fan of Barcelona since I started watching football little bit seriously. I can remember '96 generation with Guardiola, Stoickhov, Ronaldo,.. and then after that with Guardiola as captain of the team with many Dutch players, so I can say that Barcelona is in my heart even if I am from Slovenia otherwise. Need to admit that I was big fan of French national team, specially because of Zidane (Juventus was also one of my favourite teams from childhood), Vieira, Henry,... and now I am living in France, in Nantes if I am more precise and I already fall in love with La Beaujoire even if it would be much better in 2000 when they were one of the best teams in France.
Older I am, more time I am devoting to different coaches. It's not hard to figure out who is my idol, but because I'm crazy about tactics I am following lots of coaches. Right after Guardiola, there is Cruyff for who I am happy that he doesn't need to see Barcelona right now. This club is becoming totally false. If Bartomeu will stay as president, then I am afraid that Barcelona will stay without Messi, Pique and Iniesta, while Rafinha, Denis Suarez and Sergi Roberto won't be good enough for first team, and club will bring stars from all around the world (Coutinho, etc.) and then we'll be another Real Madrid. It's really hard for me to see how La Masia is going down, how there is no more players from youth categories, as that is one of the biggest reasons why I am that proud of that club.
In 2012 Pep started match with La Masia team: Victor Valdes, Martin Montoya, Carles Puyol, Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba, Xavi, Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta, Pedro, Lionel Messi and Cesc Fabregas. And 5 years after that? Plastic fantastic.  We can be happy that Messi is still here... 
http://www.marca.com/en/football/barcelona/2017/01/11/58764755e5fdea2e788b4629.html