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EviL ZippY reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Sunday July 21st
5 meetings, busy for a Sunday
I like Redcar so will go all in there!!
255: First Dance
330: One To Go
405: Rangefield Express
440: First Flight
545: Never Be Enough (Nap)
615: Donnachies Girl (Nb)
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Sunday July 21st
It is a busy day on Sunday with 3 races catching my eye at Newton Abbot. I'm glad Midnight Folie was an unbackable price on Thursday as I would have put her up otherwise. That defeat though means we are getting 15/8 about a horse who should be favourite. She had to do too much to soon with the battle for the lead with the 3rd and it meant she had little left on the run in to fend off the winner. She was backed heavily into 1/4 so it was clearly expected she would go in again and this race should be much more to her liking. Granted it was her smallest winning margin, but I thought her win over course and distance was her most impressive of the 3 and she should be able to get a soft lead here. What is also in her favour is it looks like she only has two viable rivals both of whom are unproven over this trip. Granted Dan Skelton knows what he is doing, but on paper it seems a strange move to run Chasma over this far. If he gets well backed though I would be worried as there winners do tend to be well backed. Chequered View seems like a more logical candidate for stepping up to this trip and he should benefit from a run over 2m at Southwell a month ago. I still think Midnight Folie is well handicapped though. I said off 85 she had at least 30lbs in hand so based on that she has 10lbs still plus her jockey takes off 7lbs.
In the 5.00 I really like Ballyknock Cloud. You might remember I put him up as being well handicapped ahead of his return to rules. He was quite well backed and as all good e/w bets do ended up finishing 4th. That doesn't tell the whole story though as he got badly hampered at a crucial stage and it put him on the back foot, before he was able to stay on again. That was a class 4 like this but that was a 0-115 whereas this is a 0-105 so it is a weaker contest. Granted better luck in running I would be amazed if he doesn't go close in a race like this.
Damut I'm Out plugged on for 3rd in the race Hidden Charmer just got beat in at the beginning of the month. He was a long way behind Hidden Charmer and he just couldn't go fast enough to catch the 1st 2 up, but he was only beaten just over 3L and this slightly longer trip will help. I also can't see anything being capable of what Hidden Charmer did that night in this so I am having a saver on him.
Pointed And Sharp isn't without a chance and Isle Road has been well backed after winning over hurdles here last week. He's up to a new high handicap mark of 100, but for a 10yo he's relatively unexposed so I wouldn't discount him either. I put up This Breac as a small bet against Midnight Folie here last month and he helped make the running before dropping out and being well beaten. Quite how the handicapper only dropped him a lb after that I don't know. The shorter trip might actually help him although he's never run over it and we know Bryony is good on front runners. I might have to have a very small just in case bet given he's 28/1, but I think he needs to probably run in a lesser grade and ultimately it is hard to see him being up to beating Ballyknock Cloud or Damut Im Out let alone the other two I have mentioned.
I have to back Skinflint again in the last. He has now bumped into 2 well handicapped horses. First off it was Midnight Folie here over fences and then Brave Helios over hurdles at Worcester. They were miles clear of the rest on both occasions and he really deserves to get his head in front and is clearly well handicapped. Alanjou is probably the biggest danger having won on both starts for Barry Brennan. They were weak races he won and he is up 10lbs, but he has been rated higher in the past so he could still be well handicapped as well. Hopefully though Skinflint can get the better of him and the rest.
EviL ZippY reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Friday July 12th
I think it may be worth pursuing but it could be something to do with the time of year, the early 2yo's have had there time and now we are seeing better animals making their debuts.
I do think once a 2yo makes the frame on debut they are automatically made very short by the bookies next time out, very poor value. Punters think they are bound to improve for a run but they could have been ready first time out and therefore are unlikely to progress much further. Breeze Up's and Barrier Trial horses are guilty of this, they are fit first time up and will often only then improve for a step up in trip.
We get very little info on Barrier Trials by the way.
EviL ZippY reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Tuesday July 9th
5 meetings on Tuesday
315 P: Billesdon Brook 11/4 bet365
Won last time out when she was dropped in class and this doesnt look that much tougher to me. She is very useful on her day and will take all the beating here.
345 P: Tommy Taylor 5/2 bet365
Back to form last time out and a repeat of that effort will be good enough here.
640 B: Kachumba 11/4 betvic
No show last time but may have just needed it, C/D winner and must go close.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Monday July 8th
A lot of 2nds at the moment which is frustrating although at least a couple of them were e/w to get some cash back. The opener at Worcester on Monday features Master Sunrise who of course was a massive gamble when I put him up at Bangor last time going from 25/1 to a SP of 9/2 only for him to unseat at the first. Sadly we aren't getting 25s about him, but he does have Richard Johnson on top and he rode him to victory at Southwell last summer and he was also placed on him over course and distance off a mark of 107. I think it is a big plus he is back on top and although he always comes attached with risks he is worth backing e/w at 15/2. Legal OK is a horse I put up at Fontwell and Earth Leader beat him fair and square although it wasn't helped by the fact he was taken on for the lead, but at the end of the day Earth Leader is a much better horse than he is. However that run still makes him look well handicapped off 88 here. I have just watched back his run at Fontwell last month and you would be worried about the step up in trip, but I wonder if It might help him as he will be going too quick for plenty and get them off the bridle and they might just struggle to peg him back if he gets an easy lead. The one concern I do have is maybe a small field that he could do it to might be more up his street, but I still have to have him onside at 9/2. Moreece is actually the best handicapped based on pointing ratings, but I don't really fancy him. He was well beaten at Ffos Las and the first two home that day haven't done much for the form since. I think the bigger dangers are the two horses who were 1st and 4th at Warwick last time. That was a Class 4 so both are dropping down in grade. The Manuscript won and his jockey takes off the weight he was put up for the win. Strictly speaking Tanrudy shouldn't reverse the form, but he has had a wind op and it might well see him see out the race better.
The next race sees Asockastar back in handicap company. He did us a couple of nice turns when winning at Leicester and especially at Fakenham earlier in the year and hopefully he can land the hat-trick for us. Now he isn't chucked in off 125, but if you remember my Stratford preview I said that they had chosen the wrong race for him and they should have run him in the handicap hunter chase as he looked well handicapped off 117. In hindsight he wouldn't have won that because Risk A Fine would have outclassed him and to be fair he ran as well as could have been expected in the big race when 3rd to Wonderful Charm. The handicapper put him up 8lbs for that effort, but crucially his jockey can claim 7lbs so he is essentially back to his old mark. He is dropping down in trip to 2m4f, but that doesn't concern me at all as he has plenty of pace and I think he can cope with that. I also don't think this is a strong race for the grade. Al Shahir is an obvious danger, but he fell last time and has burst before so both those things have to be a concern and as much as he might win he makes the market given his price. Cillian's Well was running well when hampered and unseating at Ffos Las last month, but that wasn't a strong race. Forever My Friend won a hunter chase at Fontwell last year and was then 2nd in the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 115. He then went back into handicap company, but ran poorly. That Fontwell win was in a bad race although if he is strong in the betting then that has to be respected given his trainer. Having said that I that Asockastar is the better horse and he only has to carry 1lbs more. It is a shame there aren't 8 runners but I am still going to back him e/w at 7/1 because the Skelton horse does concern me.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Wednesday July 3rd
2 2nds tonight at Stratford and fair to say one of them was more frustrating than the other. E/W money won on Hidden Charmer, but it felt like I got the race spot on and yet still didn't get the jackpot. Suspect they might look for a similar race here next time as he is clearly in form at the moment.
Onto Worcester on Wednesday and 3 horses worth backing who were all 2nd last time out. In race 2 I put Border Breaker up as a bet at Hexham last time and he ran really well at a big price to finish 2nd to a clearly much improved Ronava. This extra trip should see a bit of improvement as well and he looks a decent e/w bet to me again with 9/1 the biggest price currently available as he runs here of the same mark as he did at Hexham. I certainly respect the claims of Out For Justice and Bramble Brook, but it could be worth having a small e/w saver on Old Pride as well. I didn't fancy him at Bangor (in the race I put up stablemate Master Sunrise who was a massive gamble) because I have always thought he needed a shorter trip than 3m, but he was only just denied that day and they were miles clear of the rest. As his form figures suggest he is pretty consistent and Alex Edwards claim means he essentially runs off the same mark as he did at Bangor. He's as big as 17/2 with Betfair and Paddy's although the shorter prices elsewhere are acceptable as well. I don't think he's as well handicapped as Border Breaker, but now we know he stays 3m he certainly should run his race.
I'm always wary of a horse having its first start for Dr Newland so Brave Helios has to be respected and Poetic Presence has been running well in Irish points so might be capable of better than he was when he last ran under rules, but Skinflint has to be backed after his run behind Midnight Folie at Newton Abbot last week. I was worried about the trip so I'm not worried about the big drop in trip here and we all know how well handicapped Midnight Folie was. Quite why bookies put him in at 13/2 I don't know and not surprisingly that has long gone although as I type 11/2 is available with Paddy's. For me though on paper he should be heading the betting so the shorter prices are fine and we just have to hope the Newland horse isn't a handicap blot.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Sunday June 30th
Very unfortunate with Fateh at Ffos Las last week when he was backed as if he couldn't lose. Obviously not as big as he was last time as the secret is out, but worth backing again in the 3.40 at Cartmel tomorrow in the hope we can get the money back we lost at Ffos Las. It looks a very winnable race with little depth to it and if he runs as they expected to him the last day then he is the most likely winner.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Friday June 28th
The 4.00 features Dee Star and Dutch Canyon and whilst I think both are worth backing I am stronger on Dee Star. On pointing ratings on you wouldn't say that Dee Star would be able to give 20lbs to Dutch Canyon, but I think here it might be all about the horse being in the right grade and if it was a Class 4 I am not sure Dee Star could win, but crucially off 100 he can get into this contest. We know he handles the track as he bolted up in the maiden hunter chase here in May and whilst that was over a shorter trip, he was hardly stopping and on quicker ground I don't think the trip is an issue. Fateh was 2nd that day and we all know how well he was backed at Ffos Las last week. He was 3rd in the Heart Of All England and that race was probably a bit stronger than I gave it credit for at the time. Gina keeps the ride and she has been on top for both wins so far so that is an obvious plus as well. Dutch Canyon went from maiden point win to winning at Hexham a couple of weeks and that was a decent effort and he is only 5lbs higher for the win. He had struggled under rules prior to this season, but clearly dropping into a point was the key and he looks an improved horse now. He looks like he stays well and now he's in form he is clearly a player in this very weak contest. Obviously in this grade you do from time to time get a sudden improvement from a horse, but to me Scottshill is the only danger. He won in a higher grade last time and although he is up 9lbs he is just allowed into this 0-100 as horses rated up to 102 (his rating) are able to run in 0-100s. You never really know where you stand with horses from this yard, but if he repeats the Warwick run he will push the two bets close I suspect. In the 2nd race Midnight Folie is back out again over hurdles this time so she can run off a mark of 85 and has her jockey's 7lbs claim off her back as well. I don't see hurdles being an issue and as long as she can handle a 3rd quick run then she should win yet again. I have got a bigger price than the 10/11 she currently is, but I think that is still value as for me that does take into account the fact it is her 3rd quick run. It goes without saying it isn't a strong race and given I think she has 30lbs in hand there is scope for her not to be at her best and still win.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Tuesday June 25th
Great to get paid out on Buck Dancing at last. Obviously at Stratford we were on e/w, but I really fancied him at Hexham when he ran his only poor race of the year. We got that back and more though on Monday so that was good. Onto Tuesday and there are plenty of runners from points and hunter chases running at Newton Abbot. In the first race I am keen on Ardview Boy. In Ireland he didn't win in 28 starts and he then failed to win his first 4 points for new connections this year. The last of those he slipped up when in front and as 11/10 fav. He finally got his head in front last month when clocking a winning time of 5.26 so clearly the track at Llwyn Ddu is not 3m which is important given the trip here is 2m2f. He followed that up 5 days later winning his restricted and then on Derby Day he won an Intermediate. He is clearly in the form of his life at the moment and connections have found a very winnable race for. Ben Jones keeps the ride from points which is no bad thing as he takes another 7lbs off. The only horse I am really concerned about is Lapford Lad who is clearly in very good form himself and although he has gone up 11lbs since the first win last month the fact he is bang in form in this low grade is more important. Hopefully Ardview Boy can beat him to get the evening off to a good start. It could be a big night for Ben as in the next race he gets to ride Midnight Foile who of course won last week for us when he was on top. Obviously there are more runners in this race, but it looks another good opportunity and he didn't look to take too much out of himself last week. Skinflint has been pointing this year, but in my view what he has achieved isn't up to what Midnight Foile has done. He fell on his last start when in every chance 2 out and he had won his restricted and intermediate on the two previous starts. I do think he is a danger, but given the times of the races he has won and the fact he won his maiden over 2m4f suggests the trip could be an issue. He does though look in the best form he has been in so far in his short career. If This Breac can get close to his 3rd at Fontwell last year then he wouldn't be out of this on his first start for Jimmy Frost and the fact his daughter takes over for the first time is a pretty significant jockey switch. His form this season would need improving on, but I think he is worth a small cover bet e/w at 16/1 given he has the form to be competitive in this and he does stay this far. Ballycahane was a horse I thought had a chance at Cheltenham in the Intermediate Final, but he never got involved. On the back of that and his point run after that he can be passed for me. Like I say it's a race that does have more depth than the Ffos Las one, but given how much I think Midnight Folie has in hand of the handicapper the only thing that can get him beat is if the race comes too soon, but given he had short times between his races in points this year that shouldn't be an issue. A small e/w bet on This Breac is the other play. Moving onto the 7.55 and I think Robin Des People and Ballyknock Cloud are worth backing. I thought Robin Des People was a little high in the weights when he ran at Bangor, but although he was 6th of 8 he was only beaten 3 and a half lengths so it was a decent enough effort on his first start for the yard. Clearly they thought he wind was an issue as he has had a wind op and the tongue-tie is back on. The win at Stratford last year was a decent effort and he is worth backing. The main bet though is Ballyknock Cloud who has looked very good in a couple of point wins last month (his first win was a walkover). Those two efforts suggest he is in much better form than he was in under rules earlier in the year and late last year. On those handicap chase efforts you wouldn't fancy him at all, but going pointing could well be the key to him and now he's in form he could be about to show what he can do over rules fences. At 8/1 Ballyknock Cloud can still be backed e/w and Robin Des People is 5/1.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Monday 24th June
Shimla Dawn's race wasn't helped by the fact he was pestered for the lead, but Border Breaker ran well to finish 2nd and the winner has clearly massively improved from his pointing form this season as he was an easy winner again. Bletchley Castle did it well though and his jumping seems to be improving as much as he looked like he wanted to go the other way round. He was given a good ride as well as he allowed Ballina Girl to get on with it in the early stages and then was able to keep enough in reserve to beat a poor bunch. He might be capable of winning again though as he surely can't go up that much for this.
Hopefully what Bletchley Castle did at Southwell on Sunday Buck Dancing can do at Southwell on Monday in the 4.15. Another horse I put up at Stratford as well and he finally showed under rules what he had done in points and ran a cracking 2nd to Earth Leader. For me Earth Leader could easily be a 130 horse although amazingly the BHA handicapper rated his win that night at only 109 (still rated 117 based on the Fontwell win), but that does mean that the handicapper has only put Buck Dancing at 103 for his chase mark and his hurdle mark is still on 98. That to me looks an absolute gift of a handicap mark and he has at least 20lbs in hand. Obviously he has to go and prove it over hurdles, but brush hurdles are a bit like point fences anyway so it could be why they have targeted Southwell. The main worry is he has had a lot of racing this year with 8 runs from the end of February to Stratford last time. As long as it's not 1 run too many I think he will be very hard to beat with For Jim the main danger, who Brian Hughes has chosen to ride over Buck Dancing, but I think he has made the wrong move. 100/30 looks a good price even in a big field.
EviL ZippY reacted to Darran in Racing Chat - Sunday June 23rd
A couple of races to look at today and although I wouldn't be going overboard about them I think they are a big enough price to have an investment. Bletchley Castle was one of my bets at Stratford and although he didn't make his usual blunder, he couldn't get to the lead after a standing start and a blistering early pace. This (2.00 Southwell) is a really weak contest and I can see him setting such a strong gallop that he could get plenty of these into trouble. Obviously his jumping is a concern as he showed at Huntingdon, but Southwell is an easier jumping test. Ballina Girl is out again quickly after Tuesday's poor effort and she will obviously try and make the running as well. Their is a concern they might cut each others throats, but I think they might just keep going. Maybe the ground was the reason behind Ballina Girl's poor effort on Tuesday and she is obviously going back up in trip. It's interesting she is back out again so quickly so connections must think she is capable of better. I am going to have a very small cover bet on her as she is 18/20-1.
In the 4.55 at Hexham Ronava is a short price to back up his Stratford win. He might well do and I was obviously wrong to take him on that day. Shimla Dawn is interesting though. He is probably better going the other way round, but as he showed at Musselburgh if he gets an easy lead he is tough to pass. He also ran well until his stamina ran out at Kelso last time and 2m4f round Hexham looks the ideal test for him. Like Shimla Dawn Border Breaker has also been beaten by Racing Pulse this year in a point when he was 3rd beaten 9L. He then slipped up in a point here before winning a point at Sedgefield last month where he beat two good horses. If he is in the same form here then he should be capable of going well at 16/1.
I have backed all 4 e/w.
EviL ZippY reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Thursday June 20th
Sunday soverign has figures ...178 196 222 last 3 runs and seems to be improving rapidly with each run and won easily last time so suggests more to come .....could be classy
Sunday soverign 10pts win 2/1 bet365
EviL ZippY reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Tuesday June 18th
Kings stand is the only race i like today .
Blue point 265
Mabs cross 260
Its actually quite close between these 3 ....each has their merit and on paper bhattash is the best horse but he has a tendancy to mess things up at the start and i dont think mabs cross should beat blue point if they arrive at full strength so ill take the 3/1 on blue point as thats looking decent value
Blue point 10pts win 3/1 lads