Data

harry_rag · February 16, 2018

A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go.
Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot.

Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet.

** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.

February 10, 2018

One of the "super home wins" this week;

Rochdale v Fleetwood

Crazyone · February 1, 2018

Oh! . . . and something for the weekend, Sir?

date	time	home (league pos)	away (league pos)	score	Bet365
03/02/18	15:00	Aston Villa (3)	Burton (24)		1.40
03/02/18	15:00	Fulham (6)	Nottingham (15)		1.66
03/02/18	17:30	Wolverhampton Wanderers (1)	Sheffield United (7)		1.70
03/02/18	15:00	Bury (24)	Blackpool (19)		2.50
03/02/18	15:00	Charlton (7)	Oxford (12)		1.83
03/02/18	15:00	Yeovil (19)	Cambridge (15)		2.37

February 1, 2018

Well a losing bet hardly inspires confidence. However, I did say that simply backing a home win where the home side won their previous league game, and the away side lost theirs. I went on to outline how tinkering with additional filters greatly enhanced profitability.,

The reduced bets method still hold good despite Stoke's failure to support the theory. However, for interest, (and maybe to prove a point) below are this season's base method qualifiers to date (i.e. without the added restrictions)

To date 157 qualifiers, +11.37 points profit to 1 point level stakes. Average home odds of qualifiers 2.08, with a high of 9.00 and a low of 1.09. Average of winning bets 1.91 (3.00 high, 1.09 low)

date	time	home (league pos)	away (league pos)	score	Bet365	W/x
08/08/17	19:45	Macclesfield (5)	Hartlepool (21)	1-1	2.20	x
12/08/17	15:00	Aldershot (1)	Guiseley (17)	6-0	1.45	W
12/08/17	15:00	Gateshead (10)	Torquay (17)	3-0	1.75	W
12/08/17	15:00	Leyton (9)	Maidstone United (22)	2-0	1.90	W
12/08/17	15:00	Tranmere (4)	Sutton UTD (8)	0-1	1.57	x
15/08/17	19:45	Cardiff (1)	Sheffield United (12)	2-0	1.95	W
15/08/17	19:45	Middlesbrough (12)	Burton (24)	2-0	1.45	W
19/08/17	15:00	Bradford (5)	Blackburn (22)	0-1	2.50	x
19/08/17	15:00	Fleetwood Town (4)	AFC Wimbledon (17)	2-0	2.10	W
19/08/17	15:00	Woking (12)	Leyton (11)	0-2	3.10	x
20/08/17	13:30	Huddersfield (2)	Newcastle (17)	1-0	2.80	W
20/08/17	16:00	Tottenham (3)	Chelsea (14)	1-2	2.15	x
26/08/17	15:00	Watford (4)	Brighton (18)	0-0	2.20	x
26/08/17	15:00	Ipswich (2)	Fulham (19)	0-2	3.50	x
26/08/17	15:00	Cambridge (17)	Morecambe (12)	0-0	1.90	x
26/08/17	15:00	Swindon (1)	Crawley Town (24)	0-3	1.72	x
27/08/17	16:00	Liverpool (6)	Arsenal (11)	4-0	2.20	W
02/09/17	15:00	Wycombe (8)	Forest Green (19)	3-1	2.05	W
02/09/17	15:00	Leyton (3)	Guiseley (22)	4-1	1.60	W
02/09/17	15:00	Sutton UTD (1)	Maidenhead United (14)	0-2	1.65	x
02/09/17	15:00	Wrexham (4)	Bromley (8)	2-0	1.90	W
09/09/17	15:00	Rotherham (11)	Bury (19)	3-2	1.80	W
09/09/17	15:00	Notts County (5)	Morecambe (19)	2-0	1.66	W
09/09/17	15:00	Solihull (22)	Macclesfield (14)	0-1	3.40	x
12/09/17	19:45	Leeds (2)	Birmingham (21)	2-0	1.80	W
12/09/17	19:45	Norwich (17)	Burton (22)	0-0	1.44	x
12/09/17	19:45	Q.P.R. (8)	Millwall (19)	2-2	2.30	x
12/09/17	19:45	Charlton (2)	Wigan (8)	0-3	2.62	x
12/09/17	19:45	Rotherham (11)	Walsall (13)	5-1	2.05	W
12/09/17	19:45	Shrewsbury (1)	Southend (17)	1-0	2.10	W
12/09/17	19:45	Accrington Stanley (2)	Grimsby (19)	1-2	1.90	x
12/09/17	19:45	Colchester (14)	Chesterfield (23)	1-1	1.95	x
12/09/17	19:45	Coventry (8)	Carlisle (16)	2-0	2.15	W
12/09/17	19:45	Crewe (4)	Cambridge (15)	0-1	2.50	x
16/09/17	17:30	Tottenham (5)	Swansea (15)	0-0	1.20	x
16/09/17	15:00	Wigan (6)	Bristol Rovers (12)	3-0	1.66	W
16/09/17	15:00	Exeter (1)	Crewe (10)	3-0	1.90	W
16/09/17	15:00	Bromley (12)	Solihull (22)	1-0	1.75	W
23/09/17	15:00	Manchester City (1)	Crystal Palace (20)	5-0	1.14	W
23/09/17	15:00	Wolverhampton Wanderers (2)	Barnsley (20)	2-1	1.40	W
23/09/17	17:30	Aston Villa (13)	Nottingham (10)	2-1	1.70	W
23/09/17	15:00	Shrewsbury (1)	Blackburn (11)	1-1	3.10	x
23/09/17	15:00	Luton (4)	Chesterfield (23)	1-0	1.50	W
23/09/17	15:00	Notts County (2)	Lincoln (10)	4-1	2.90	W
23/09/17	15:00	Aldershot (1)	Leyton (13)	2-2	1.85	x
23/09/17	15:00	Maidstone United (7)	Gateshead (14)	2-2	1.95	x
26/09/17	19:45	Bradford (3)	Fleetwood Town (10)	0-3	1.90	x
26/09/17	19:45	Milton Keynes (11)	Northampton (20)	0-0	2.10	x
26/09/17	19:45	Southend (16)	AFC Wimbledon (19)	1-0	2.15	W
26/09/17	19:45	Wycombe (10)	Crewe (16)	3-2	1.80	W
30/09/17	15:00	Manchester United (2)	Crystal Palace (20)	4-0	1.18	W
30/09/17	15:00	Aston Villa (8)	Bolton (24)	1-0	1.44	W
30/09/17	15:00	Preston (5)	Sunderland (23)	2-2	1.85	x
30/09/17	15:00	Coventry (4)	Crewe (18)	1-0	1.70	W
30/09/17	15:00	Stevenage (6)	Port Vale (22)	2-0	2.15	W
30/09/17	15:00	Wycombe (8)	Barnet (15)	3-1	2.10	W
30/09/17	15:00	Woking (6)	Hartlepool (17)	1-1	2.40	x
03/10/17	19:45	Maidstone United (5)	Bromley (13)	0-2	1.70	x
04/10/17	19:45	Tranmere (17)	Leyton (15)	2-1	1.65	W
07/10/17	15:00	Tranmere (14)	Chester (21)	0-0	1.44	x
13/10/17	19:45	Bristol City (4)	Burton (21)	0-0	1.44	x
14/10/17	15:00	Fleetwood Town (9)	Rochdale (18)	2-2	2.62	x
14/10/17	15:00	Portsmouth (13)	Milton Keynes (14)	2-0	1.95	W
14/10/17	15:00	Rotherham (4)	Scnuthorpe (8)	2-0	2.20	W
14/10/17	15:00	Wigan (2)	Southend (15)	3-0	1.50	W
14/10/17	15:00	Colchester (15)	Carlisle (16)	0-1	2.65	x
14/10/17	15:00	Lincoln (10)	Cambridge (14)	0-0	1.95	x
14/10/17	15:00	Luton (3)	Stevenage (7)	7-1	1.66	W
17/10/17	19:45	Newport (6)	Colchester (16)	1-2	2.00	x
21/10/17	15:00	Derby (13)	Sheffield Wednesday (12)	2-0	2.20	W
21/10/17	15:00	Crewe (17)	Accrington Stanley (5)	0-2	3.25	x
24/10/17	19:45	Eastleigh (16)	Solihull (24)	1-2	1.75	x
28/10/17	15:00	Arsenal (5)	Swansea (15)	2-1	1.20	W
28/10/17	14:00	Northampton (22)	Blackpool (9)	1-0	2.80	W
28/10/17	15:00	Charlton (4)	AFC Wimbledon (20)	1-0	1.95	W
29/10/17	16:00	Leicester (14)	Everton (18)	2-0	2.04	W
03/11/17	19:45	Wolverhampton Wanderers (1)	Fulham (16)	2-0	1.70	W
04/11/17	15:00	Barnsley (19)	Birmingham (21)	2-0	2.45	W
04/11/17	17:30	Brentford (15)	Leeds (7)	3-1	2.00	W
04/11/17	15:00	Eastleigh (18)	Chester (22)	2-2	1.90	x
11/11/17	12:30	Doncaster (17)	Rotherham (7)	1-1	2.90	x
11/11/17	15:00	Gillingham (22)	Bury (23)	1-1	2.45	x
11/11/17	15:00	Barrow (21)	Macclesfield (2)	0-2	2.50	x
18/11/17	15:00	Burnley (7)	Swansea (19)	2-0	2.35	W
18/11/17	15:00	Liverpool (5)	Southampton (13)	3-0	1.44	W
18/11/17	15:00	Plymouth (23)	Oxford (10)	0-4	2.90	x
18/11/17	15:00	Lincoln (8)	Coventry (6)	1-2	2.55	x
18/11/17	15:00	Bromley (6)	Chester (22)	1-1	2.05	x
18/11/17	15:00	Maidstone United (5)	Solihull (24)	1-1	1.70	x
21/11/17	19:45	Sutton UTD (3)	Torquay (24)	0-1	1.61	x
25/11/17	15:00	Blackburn (6)	Bristol Rovers (17)	2-1	1.61	W
28/11/17	19:45	Derby (6)	Ipswich (10)	0-1	1.72	x
29/11/17	19:45	Arsenal (4)	Huddersfield (11)	5-0	1.20	W
02/12/17	15:00	Everton (13)	Huddersfield (14)	2-0	1.85	W
02/12/17	15:00	Ipswich (9)	Nottingham (10)	4-2	2.75	W
02/12/17	17:30	Bristol City (5)	Middlesbrough (7)	2-1	2.55	W
03/12/17	16:00	Manchester City (1)	West Ham (18)	2-1	1.11	W
09/12/17	15:00	Wolverhampton Wanderers (1)	Sunderland (23)	0-0	1.33	x
09/12/17	15:00	Ebbsfleet United (12)	Guiseley (23)	4-0	1.60	W
12/12/17	19:45	Burnley (7)	Stoke (15)	1-0	2.30	W
12/12/17	20:00	Huddersfield (12)	Chelsea (3)	1-3	9.00	x
13/12/17	20:00	Tottenham (6)	Brighton (13)	2-0	1.20	W
16/12/17	15:00	Chelsea (3)	Southampton (11)	1-0	1.40	W
16/12/17	15:00	Preston (10)	Sheffield United (6)	1-0	2.50	W
16/12/17	15:00	Blackburn (3)	Charlton (6)	2-0	1.85	W
16/12/17	15:00	Lincoln (6)	Accrington Stanley (3)	2-0	2.20	W
18/12/17	20:00	Everton (10)	Swansea (20)	3-1	1.80	W
23/12/17	15:00	Manchester City (1)	Bournemouth (16)	4-0	1.09	W
23/12/17	15:00	West Ham (15)	Newcastle (18)	2-3	2.00	x
23/12/17	15:00	Leeds (7)	Hull (19)	1-0	2.00	W
23/12/17	15:00	Preston (9)	Nottingham (11)	1-1	1.95	x
23/12/17	15:00	Sunderland (21)	Birmingham (24)	1-1	2.10	x
23/12/17	15:00	Peterborough (8)	Bury (24)	3-0	1.85	W
23/12/17	15:00	Barnet (22)	Cheltenham (15)	0-2	2.62	x
23/12/17	15:00	Crewe (19)	Swindon (12)	0-3	3.00	x
26/12/17	13:00	Gillingham (18)	Oxford (10)	1-1	2.45	x
26/12/17	15:00	Carlisle (13)	Accrington Stanley (7)	3-1	2.40	W
26/12/17	13:00	Leyton (20)	Dagenham & Redbridge (6)	2-0	3.00	W
29/12/17	19:45	Doncaster (13)	Rochdale (23)	2-0	2.05	W
30/12/17	15:00	Liverpool (4)	Leicester (8)	2-1	1.28	W
30/12/17	15:00	Watford (10)	Swansea (20)	1-2	1.83	x
30/12/17	15:00	Middlesbrough (7)	Aston Villa (8)	0-1	2.00	x
30/12/17	15:00	Sheffield United (6)	Bolton (23)	0-1	1.53	x
30/12/17	15:00	Portsmouth (7)	Northampton (22)	3-1	1.61	W
30/12/17	15:00	Carlisle (12)	Coventry (7)	0-1	2.60	x
30/12/17	15:00	Lincoln (3)	Forest Green (24)	2-1	1.55	W
30/12/17	15:00	Ebbsfleet United (9)	Dagenham & Redbridge (7)	1-1	2.70	x
30/12/17	15:00	Leyton (18)	Bromley (10)	0-1	2.10	x
30/12/17	15:00	Maidenhead United (11)	Fylde (19)	1-2	2.25	x
01/01/18	15:00	Derby (2)	Sheffield United (6)	1-1	2.30	x
01/01/18	15:00	Preston (8)	Middlesbrough (9)	2-3	2.80	x
01/01/18	17:30	Aston Villa (7)	Bristol City (3)	5-0	2.40	W
01/01/18	15:00	Mansfield (9)	Carlisle (13)	3-1	2.30	W
01/01/18	15:00	Solihull (24)	Maidenhead United (11)	3-1	2.62	W
06/01/18	15:00	Plymouth (16)	Bury (24)	3-0	2.37	W
06/01/18	15:00	Accrington Stanley (10)	Chesterfield (22)	4-0	1.75	W
13/01/18	15:00	Crystal Palace (14)	Burnley (7)	1-0	2.20	W
13/01/18	15:00	Newcastle (13)	Swansea (20)	1-1	1.75	x
13/01/18	15:00	Gillingham (16)	Rochdale (23)	2-1	2.80	W
13/01/18	15:00	Crawley Town (17)	Barnet (24)	2-0	2.40	W
13/01/18	15:00	Wycombe (5)	Colchester (9)	3-1	2.05	W
15/01/18	20:00	Manchester United (2)	Stoke (18)	3-0	1.20	W
19/01/18	19:45	Derby (2)	Bristol City (5)	0-0	2.10	x
20/01/18	15:00	Fulham (8)	Burton (22)	6-0	1.45	W
20/01/18	15:00	Q.P.R. (14)	Middlesbrough (9)	0-3	3.30	x
20/01/18	12:30	Sutton UTD (3)	Dagenham & Redbridge (8)	2-1	2.20	W
20/01/18	15:00	Boreham Wood (6)	Dover Athletic (7)	2-3	2.00	x
23/01/18	19:45	Rotherham (7)	Bradford (5)	2-0	2.10	W
23/01/18	19:45	Newport (9)	Morecambe (19)	1-1	2.05	x
23/01/18	19:45	Fylde (9)	Maidstone United (14)	3-0	1.40	W
23/01/18	19:45	Gateshead (15)	Woking (16)	1-1	1.53	x
27/01/18	15:00	Brentford (9)	Norwich (13)	0-1	2.15	x
27/01/18	15:00	Gillingham (12)	Fleetwood Town (13)	2-1	2.75	W
27/01/18	15:00	Dover Athletic (7)	Guiseley (23)	2-1	1.61	W
30/01/18	19:45	Coventry (7)	Cambridge (15)	3-1	1.85	W
31/01/18	20:00	Stoke (17)	Watford (10)	0-0	2.20	x
31/01/18	19:45	Exeter (9)	Forest Green (23)	2-0	1.90	W

StevieDay1983 · January 31, 2018

Even the simplest of ideas still require the research in order to validate them. For me, and probably many others, almost the best part of the game is the research. I suppose we've all spent countless hours going down ever complex routes only to find that it isn't the answer. Failure? not a bit of it, we've proven that the tactic under examination was not a profitable one and the time spent certainly was not a chore!

Each to his/her own eh?

January 31, 2018

16 hours ago, Alastair said:

The question is if a system were proven to be profitable would it not be the case that the shrewder punters might latch on as well as the mugs ? In which case the system I describe might come to pass. To be fair I think it is impossible to prove this either way because has there ever been a profitable system that has entered the public domain ? I put up a system regarding the Grand National but I don't think anyone has passed comment - either it is rubbish or everyone is keeping it quiet for themselves !

If public domain systems will kill themselves off then there's obviously no future for the Punterslounge racing tips, currently in excess of £23k profit. But everybody isn't jumping on the bandwagon are they? Do you follow and bet the tips daily Alastair? If you don't, think just why you don't with a public domain simple system of "Bet all PL horse racing single bets & naps".

But you're right, it is impossible to prove either way, a bit like whatever betting analysis we all involve ourselves in.

January 31, 2018

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I see that despite several requests for Glentoby to proof some of his selections there has been no response. Until that happens I will remain sceptical.

Don't hold your breath. He did say he couldn't proof "for obvious reasons" . . . enough said.

If it sounds to good to be true . . .

January 30, 2018

On 29/01/2018 at 9:37 AM, Alastair said:

I can't see any evidence in Glentoby's posts that there can never be a system that will be profitable over the course of time. We simply can't know that there aren't individuals quietly going about their business of making consistent profits from betting on horse racing. What we can say is that if a system enters the public domain then it must eventually fail because if it does initially work then the selections will be overbet until the point where they become unprofitable.

I must disagree with your final sentence. It might have been true before the Internet and easy access to racing data when information was little more than a one-way process from Sporting Life / Handicap Book to punters. On course and/or betting shop discussions were limited to who was there at the time. Just think of the wealth of tipsters, forums, chat rooms, social media, database software, etc., etc. The markets have evolved as a result of this information super highway and are far too efficient for any 'system' to make huge percentage profits, but systematic profits are still there to be made nevertheless.

The canny punter does not, or at least is very unlikely to blindly follow the methods of someone else. They may of course use it as a starting point for further enhancement, or combine it with some other ideas because we all stand on the shoulders of giants.

The vast majority however are mug punters wanting get-rich-quick or 'sure bets'. They think betting profits are just that, profits and that losing bets play no part in a successful strategy. If a system achieved 100% winners - or close - and had losing runs no longer than 1, and it went public, then it would surely rapidly self destruct. But no one ever had such a system.

REAL profitable systems, make money over the long term, struggle to achieve much above 20% return on stakes and suffer losing runs which can be painful and certainly not for the faint hearted. Put a system like that into the public domain and it wouldn't even cause the slightest ripple, Mugs would ignore it or at best abandon it after a loser or two, the canny punter would probably appreciate the logic involved and log the details to be 'personalised' later . . . maybe. But, the VAST majority of the betting public wouldn't even know about it, ever.

Any

January 30, 2018

In our tireless quest to get a better edge we can easily over-process information so as to see things other punters may miss. But do we therefore lose sight of how valuable oh so simple solutions can often be. I'm an enthusiast of simple triggers, even though often they do not throw up many opportunities in themselves, having a 'portfolio' of such methods can work wonders for the bottom line.

One such dead easy method seemingly overlooked (it must be because it makes profits), is simply this; For league games only, if the home team won their previous league game and the away side lost their previous league game, back the home win. This approach makes consistent profits in English leagues (returns vary when examining other leagues).

It gets even better when you restrict the plan to the top two divisions, Premiership and Championship. For purists (or should that be risk-takers) it can be further refined but maybe it then runs the risk of being seen as back-fitted, engineered to enhance profits. If a further restriction is placed that the home side must have a league position below that of the away side, profits improve again. If we don't push our luck going for odds which are too big, a restriction of a maximum of the home team being no more than 10 league places below their opponents, this method has returned a 60% ROI using Ladbrokes odds(!!) since 2014, with home odds averaging at 2.77

... and what d'ya know, a home win bet pops onto the radar for tomorrow evening 31/01/2017 ~ Stoke to beat Watford. still at 2.25 in many places, but the price is dropping ...

January 30, 2018

On 23/01/2018 at 2:40 PM, moggis said:

Psychology is indeed key in short term markets .

However it's signicantly less of a factor when betting on outright markets . Mainly because if you lose you only lose once or twice a year but for other reasons also .

Spending several months monitoring how your bet position is doing can be very stressful I find. A wham-bam single event which is all over after the race is run / the match is finished is my preferred modus operandi.

December 28, 2017

On 18/12/2017 at 8:53 AM, thebigp said:

There is some very good advice on this thread but I thought i would add to it as I've been a professional for nearly 2 years and have worked in the industry for 10+ years. However despite being successful I'm leaving the industry and starting in an entirely new career.

Sorry if I sound negative about the prospect, it certainly is possible to make it as a professional but it's bloody difficult. If the financial benefits outway the negatives than great but for the vast majority this will not be the case.

An excellent post and although@thebigp sounds as though he is speaking from genuine experience there are surely many ways to make a decent living from betting and certainly not restricted to strategies which are too time consuming.

December 28, 2017

Remiss of me not to follow my spread betting picks with their outcomes . . .

Chelsea v Man United SELL @ 52       MakeUp 40   +12
Man City v Arsenal SELL @ 51           MU 70   -19
Inter v Torino SELL @ 52 (SPIN)       MU 80   -28
Sassuolo v Milan SELL @ 60(SPIN)       MU 50   +10
Sociedad v Eibar SELL @ 61(SPIN)       MU 30   +31

Fiorentina v Roma SELL @ 57 MU 20 +37

Overall 43 points profit

brought forward won 2 lost 1
... now ...
won 6 lost 3 for a 66.67% strike

profit now +54, representing a 10% profit GOB (Gain On 540pts starting bankroll)

Spread betting made easy ~ or just lucky?
Who knows?

November 5, 2017

Sunday fixtures 1 additional bookings spread ...

Fiorentina v Roma SELL @ 57

November 4, 2017

Sunday 5 November Football Bookings Spreads

Only looking at Sporting Index (SPIN) & Spreadex (SX)
If quote is better with one firm it will be marked, otherwise at the time of writing the quote was the same with both.

Chelsea v Man United SELL @ 52
Man City v Arsenal SELL @ 51
Inter v Torino SELL @ 52 (SPIN)
Sassuolo v Milan SELL @ 60(SPIN)
Sociedad v Eibar SELL @ 61(SPIN)

November 4, 2017

Saturday 4 November Football Bookings Spread RESULTS
Dortmund v Bayern Munich SELL @ 43 (SX) make-up 40, profit +3
Genoa v Sampdoria SELL @ 74 (SPIN) make-up 60, profit +14
La Coruna v Ath Madrid SELL @ 54 make-up 60, loss -6

Account:
Profit/Loss +11, 2.04% gain on bank
W/L performance, 2W /1L, 66% strike.

November 4, 2017

I omitted to detail my methodology here.

It's nothing complicated, merely red & yellow card records for each of home team, away team & referee from previous seasons, then via regression using Excel to best fit an estimate from these data.

Use the regression equation on current season stats and compare against the spread. Anything with a 10 point 'edge' is a bet.

November 4, 2017

Saturday 4 November Football Bookings Spreads

Only looking at Sporting Index (SPIN) & Spreadex (SX)
If quote is better with one firm it will be marked, otherwise the quote was the same with both (at the time of writing)

Dortmund v Bayern Munich SELL @ 43 (SX)
Genoa v Sampdoria SELL @ 74 (SPIN)
La Coruna v Ath Madrid SELL @ 54

harry_rag · November 4, 2017

Acronym: Here's Another Spread Betting Entry, Expertly Named.

As primarily a spread bettor for over 20 years, here's my attempt to profit from the football spreads.

Yield, or ROI doesn't easily fit the spread betting format, because unlike tradition betting, a specific risk/reward for each bet is often unknown. In my opinion ROI is also of very limited and/or no value whatsoever with traditional betting strategies either, but maybe that's a topic for another time.

By far the majority of my spread betting, which is also true of other spread betters I know, is as a seller - or going low on the quotes. It is also true in my experience that a successful spread better has more winning bets than losing ones. In the vast majority of cases the spreader who shows a 50% strike rate will be breaking even, any less than that and you'll be a loser long term. My own 20 odd year regime as a spread winner shows me close to 66% strike rate, around 2 wins for every loss.

I need to start with a bankroll. Again, in rough & ready terms for each bet a spread seller can, in the vast majority of cases hope to stay within a win or loss calculated by the width of the spread (e.g. 10-12 would = 2) multiplied by 15. Okay, it can occasionally go outside of these parameters, but we're dealing with unknowns here, and the 15 * spreadwidth should suffice.

In this series I'll be looking at football bookings markets which have a spread width of 4, so my win/loss for each bet @ 1 point would be 60 points.

For bankroll size I'll assume a worst case of an expected 50% strike rate. Using the common Excel formula for longest losing run viz: 500 bets, 0.5 strike rate, =LN(500)/-LN((1-0.5))) the result can be rounded up to 9. My starting bankroll will therefore be 60pts * 9 = 540pts.

For each bet in the series I will report profit/loss to 1 point bets, and report this progress as a percentage of the starting bank, NOT each stake in turn, which IMHO will show a far more informative yield on what I needed to start this project.

I've shown profits on other threads on this board, but we'll start with a level playing field here, no profits, no loss, start bank 540pts.

November 3, 2017

Spread Betting - Bookings

Ein Frankfurt v Werder Bremen Spreadex go 48-52 on bookings.

SELL the 48, 4 points

(Spreadex are big on this game, Sporting are quoting 42-46)

October 23, 2017

A Sunday make-up of 10 for a return of +41, gives me a weekend profit of +17. Satisfactory outcome.

October 21, 2017

Not the best start, a 24 point loss carried forward to tomorrow's game.

October 21, 2017

My calculations throw up two booking sells for this weekend.

Today's Huddersfield v Man Utd looks a sell at 36-40 with both firms. And tomorrow's Tottenham v Liverpool is a sell at the 51-54 available with Spreadex.

October 16, 2017

14 hours ago, harry_rag said:

... just look at the outcome of your bets).

In my case there's a lot to be said for that approach to maintain my sanity. I NEVER watch if my money is riding on an event.

Sky advertising tells us something like "It's more interesting/exciting when you've got a bet on". Not for me it ain't.

I can cope with being several hundreds up or down after the results without showing or feeling emotion. But watching the situation unfold fuels my inner demons.

October 15, 2017

Still a good call, and a 20 point is nothing to grumble about.

October 15, 2017

I didn't, no issues with that however it was just a fraction of a point short of my trigger point.

Always follow what my calculations tell me to do. I'll be on Premiership games from now on, so I'll likely see more action on the bookings front ~ a minimum of 4 home/away games is the basis of my figures.

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