Valiant Thor

4.40 Muss TRADING POINT @ 11/8 B365

Its not my spelling I think the software wont let me put S'thorpe in

wise decision
you mention you may get bitten during a long losing run so I'll put up a couple of tables to give you an idea of risk of ruin and bank sizes required for a million to one chance of ruin at odds v edge (the yellow bit at the top) (this is a different equation than simple losing runs)

lets take the examples already stated on here even money to 33/1 at level stakes and lets say a 15% edge
Using the chart you would need a bank of approx 46pts to give you a 1/1mill chance of going bust (1591pts @ 33/1),even if your edge dropped down to 8% you still have only 0.1% of losing your whole bank .

So now you have your bank size for level staking, look what happens when you back 33/1 shots from the same bank even with a 15% edge you now have a massive 67% chance of going bust, even to have a coin flip (50/50) of not going bust you have to have a consistently enormous edge at level stakes over the books of 27% with 33/1 shots , your winner to losers burn rate @ such a large variance in odds will lead to the ultimate losing run that wipes the lot out, and it will come.

The above are only examples of what have been stated in this thread (not by you I may add) and Its not my place to tell punters how they should or shouldn't bet its there money they can do with it as they wish, but poor money management IMO is one of the biggest loss maker to most punters by incorrect staking v risk taken and I think the more punters learn about it the better chance they have of beating the book (or at least losing less ,I may be wrong but Bill Bentner seems to agree and he's not too bad a punter and only using math as well ).
GL with your punting whatever you decide to do
VT

After last seasons rain spoiled the show Gosden has his team ready for action

3.35 Newmarket PURSER @ 5/2 B365

After last seasons rain spoiled the show Gosden has his team ready for action

3.35 Newmarket PURSER @ 5/2 B365

Examiner wins in photo ...but win is win!!@

Can I play?
410

 
520

 
555

 

Just to get the record straight Im not a mathematician, Im an engineer (C&G , HND the whole 9 yrds as they say).
I prefer the math side because math dont lie (unless manipulated for a certain purpose ie Government stats etc) but on a whole they will give you a better indication of which direction your punting is going to go.
To answer your Q... (IMO) 
TKC is in theory the optimal staking strategy to use but in practice is not worth a second look unless the absolute value to plug into the equation can be obtained, Its all fine and good using the coin example 11/10 for a true even money shot but that doesnt happen in real life.
Anyone can make a tissue for a race (subjective) but I very much doubt its accurate enough to plug into the equation,if you underestimate your edge then its not worth using TKC but if you overestimate your edge BOOM your losing money quicker than the taxman takes it, again IMO TKC is mainly used by theorists using past data , I have yet to see it being used pre event (non guarenteed fixed edge) over any extended period of time which usually tells a story.
GL
VT

Just to get the record straight Im not a mathematician, Im an engineer (C&G , HND the whole 9 yrds as they say).
I prefer the math side because math dont lie (unless manipulated for a certain purpose ie Government stats etc) but on a whole they will give you a better indication of which direction your punting is going to go.
To answer your Q... (IMO) 
TKC is in theory the optimal staking strategy to use but in practice is not worth a second look unless the absolute value to plug into the equation can be obtained, Its all fine and good using the coin example 11/10 for a true even money shot but that doesnt happen in real life.
Anyone can make a tissue for a race (subjective) but I very much doubt its accurate enough to plug into the equation,if you underestimate your edge then its not worth using TKC but if you overestimate your edge BOOM your losing money quicker than the taxman takes it, again IMO TKC is mainly used by theorists using past data , I have yet to see it being used pre event (non guarenteed fixed edge) over any extended period of time which usually tells a story.
GL
VT

Interesting topic.
As BH and Valiant Thor have both said, your suggested staking is counter intuitive to what should be bet. The stake (if you wanted to increase/decrease based on price) should be bigger at the shorter odds where the market price suggests the horse would have a better win ratio.
If your own betting history suggests your winners are coming in more at the bigger odds, then by all means, increase your stakes here but at a very much reduced level to your suggested stakes.
12/1 shots have the chance of producing losing runs of 70 or more over as small a sample size as 200 bets, so your betting bank size would need to accomodate this potential losing run (ie 70 x 12pts = 840pts bankl), but  preferably bigger as two or more such losing runs could come together.

Suggestions -
Stick with level staking/variable profits. (best choice)

Try level profits/variable stakes.
Define the profit you want from each bet, then divide the required profit by the odds available to arrive at the stake.
E.g.
Required profit = 10pts per bet
odds =3/1
Stake is profit/odds or 10 / 3/1 (3) = 3.33pts
odds = 15/2
Stake is  10 / 15/2 (7.5) = 1.33pts

Try  1/2/3 points staking.
Where -
1pt is bet on what you consider to be weak bets.
2pts are bet on what you consider to be your medium bets.
3pts ors bet on what you consider to be your strongest bets.
 

Valiant Thor also alluded to the long odd/short odds bias regarding SP's, so here are the last ten years bookmaker SP's showing what he means in table format.
 


 
Odds - show the returned SP's
Required SR - show the returned SP's as a probability
Runners/winners are the number of runners/winners at the returned odds (10 years).
Actual SR - show the probability of the actual results (i.e. winners / runners)
Difference - show actual SR - required SR, (if red then those returned SP's would show a loss)
 
Bookmakers typically make their best profits at the longer odds, hence increasing the stake on those longer odds selections would be detrimental (imo). 
 
 
 
 

I would dispute your figures for odds on favourites. I agree with the strike rate of 60% but the average SP is closer to 4/6 so the losses are minimal, c 3.6% at SP.
The losses for 33/1 + are 57%.
I know which end of the market I would look at.
In reality a bet can be value at 1/5 as much as a 33/1 shot, it all depends on what we believe are the true odds.
 

5.15 Aintree GETAWAY KATIE MAI @ 2/1 Coral

IMO not enough is discussed about staking as I think it is more important than finding winners.
If you cant get through losing runs then you will run out of money before you hit your winning runs and as its the winning runs that actually create the intrinsic value of any part of betting.
You certainly don't want to be doing what you have suggested above.(unless you can pick 10/1 shots at a similar rate as 3/1 shots)
With a wide range of odds such as yours (without knowing your ave win odds/bank size/cut off point etc) I would go for fixed return staking ,its safe and no big cash swings,which means no major shocks.
Say for example IF 100pts is the max your comfortable with staking on an even money shot for a return of 200pts, you should therefore make 200pts your target return on every bet you make.
For your 3/1 shots you'd stake 200*0.25 (inverse of 3/1)=50pts
For your 9/1 shots you'd stake 200*0.10 (inverse of 9/1)=10pts
 etc,etc, to get the same returns as an even money shot
This way your staking the correct amount in perspective to the odds of your selection while at all times remaining within your comfort zone

Stay strong you'll get through it , I have faith

Can only access your naps from 7-8-2016 to 31/3/2018
Not including your ew Naps ,(I dont do ew so not changing my code just for 160 bets) , and WTF  is draw in horseracing (DH????)
You have 867 win only naps for the above dates which gives a  margin of error of +/- 0.034%
Its not the 95% accepted confidence level but then again doubt if Brian Cox is reading this.
Your return is 5.1% above expected(at taken prices not sp) and given that best price book average (excluding BF) is around 10% per race that means your actually beating the market by 15% ish  on your win only naps on an ave 35% SR (2.85)with average win odds of 3.15 , So it looks ok to me  
You say don't bet but if I were you I'd load what Im prepared to lose into a 35pt bank and blind bet all my win only nap selections to 1pt (little acorns and all that), using 35 as the divisor for an incremental stake (never decreasing only increasing),soon be barred from the books
Thats torn it now all the wannabee pros will be diving on your naps now ,the slightest bit of variance and they'll and all be on your case ( You've created a monster   )  
Price of fame weighs heavy I'm afraid BH
ATB
VT
 
 
 

Ha Ha 
@captainlucky My naps have been posted on here every day since 2001, I think thats a decent sample. 
I'm sure everyone has a good spell and everyone has a nightmare, i'm no different.

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

I think the ROI is misleading without considering the size of the sample.
Ormonde has a ROI of 30% on 115 selections giving a LSP of £34
The punters lounge selections have a ROI of "only" 6% but over 19,263 selections this gives a LSP of £1,134.
I know which selections I will be following, especially as they are free!

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

Since 2010 Ive averaged 470 per season (to the nearest 10)
So around 16 a week or 2 to 3 a day
Over the big flat festivals is obviously more a day than the ave flat

I only bet on certain flat races between April to the end of October
Drawdown is just the actual money you have to put in and -1pt is the minimum you can ever have as you must put that in to start with.
IE
When I have my first bet I will be -1pt down from my own money as that is needed to place the bet.so drawdown is -1pt if that loses I will have to use another 1pt therefore drawdown will be -2pts if I never lose another bet to the end of Oct (I wish) then total drawdown will be -2pts for that year
In 2016 I had to 'top up' to be able to keep betting so to speak 34 times hence -34pts before I had accrued enough profit to be able to sustain the losing runs without going in the red.
The 50pts is the max that I am prepared to lose in any 1 flat season come what may, so that year I was 16 points from going bust (by the way the 50pts Max is worked out on odds of 1 million to 1 of me going bust using my average SR so thats how close it was )
CLT in a nutshell (or my representation of it at least )
If you have a data set (past bets) and take any independent random samples ( new bets,same type races,same selection process) as long as you have enough random samples (new bets) then in theory and if your selection process is as good as you think you should end up with around the similar averages to your past bets (reversion to the mean ) , If you could maintain a 50% SR for example it is only variance (luck or bad luck to the ill informed) which stops you getting a W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L scenario.
 

Back @ Lingfield today
Todays stats are combined Trainer,Jockey,Draw & Distance
with a tissue thrown in for a Brucie bonus  (tissue collated from above stats only)
Not done the claimer as I think they're a bigger waste of time than apprentice races as a betting medium
Havent done the last either as Im about to have my dinner....
 Im just taking all top rated today to see how all the 4 stats go together
On with the show

Ertidad seems to be the flavour of the day today, had it myself in the nap comp so sorry guys its doomed
Ertidad @ 7/2

Bloodsweatandtears @ 7/2

The Mums @ 12/1

Haylah @ 9/4

Sweet Symphony @ 7/2
R/F Sweet Symphony & Girls Talk

Sea Shack @ 9/2
G'luck with your bets

Since 2010 Ive averaged 470 per season (to the nearest 10)
So around 16 a week or 2 to 3 a day
Over the big flat festivals is obviously more a day than the ave flat