Valiant Thor

@harry_rag
I'd had a couple of bottles of Marques de Caseres last night so didn't really have my thinking head on
Basically what you want to predict is the probability of a binary (yes/no) event occurring.
Logistic Regression would be the easiest model you should be looking at (IMO)
P(scores) = 1/1+a X^b
a & ^b are adjusted parameters that give the best fit to the model
ie
say the book give 4.0 (3/1) for Player A to score anytime
if the bookies odds for scoring were 100% correct then the model would be  P(A scores) = 1 / 1+X or 1/4 = 25%
But by putting your past data into a log reg model it may give you factors 1.1 for a & 1.3 for ^b
This would then give the model P( A scores) = 1/1+1.1*(3)^1.3
P(A scores) =1/1+1.1*4.17 =1/5.58 = 18%
this would mean the bookies overestimate the chance of Player A scoring @ 25% to his actual chance of 18% giving a negative edge
Ex Value = 3*0.18 - 1*0.82 =0.54-0.81 =-0.27 or -27%
There are plenty of vids on youtube to help set up Log Reg
ATB
VT
 

 

I must admit its not a subject Ive come across much in my reading
Its a very select market thats for sure.
Depends on what data you have and how much you have of it.
GS'rs can go an age between goals then have a run of a lot all at once hence a lot of outliers (not good)
So I suppose linear weighting would be the way to go , but that works best on high scoring games , baseball ,Nfl, basketball etc
Monte Carlo simulation is another track which would fit the data but due to the lack of goals scored even over a season its not enough.
 
Take a look @ THIS SITE  (Tonys a top sports modeller)
Its an aussie football site but there could be a few models on player score ratios somewhere in there you can adapt your data to fit
In the meantime I'll have a look on a few of my portable drives to see if I have any any thing vaguely related to CG scorer models
 
ATB
VT
 
 
 
 

Personally I wouldn't bother its not really what your looking for. ( Junk for the masses )
THIS IS A BETTER BOOK FOR WHAT YOU WANT
With this you'll learn how to set up in excel some of the more common models you need in an easy to follow plain English format ( Not math heavy ).
Distributions Models
Poisson
Zero Inflated Poisson
Negative Binomial
Geometric
Uniform
( unfortunately no Bivariate Poisson)
It also shows you how to set up Chi tests for each Model to check which one is performing best @ the present time. ( models are dynamic rather than static )
 
Sorry to rain on your Parade but...
Poisson didn't work in the 80's when I was first experimenting with it and still doesn't work now . ( Dont even go there for CS prediction with any of them )
With sports betting you first have to think about it logically ...
1] If a simple distribution method that every man and his dog can use could find value bets , (would then become over bet and hence no value)
2] Bookmakers have better models and more information than you could ever have,so would adjust accordingly therefore no value
On a less negative note
Some models are better @ pointing you in the right direction than others ( which is what they should be used for & not as " set in stone predictions" ),
Of the above I would rank in predictive order for W-D- L success -
Zero Inflated Poisson
Uniform
Poisson
Enjoy yor model building
ATB
VT

 

The info is still there
Click on the 3 Blue Dots at the top in RP app
Go on signposts
Long distance travellers

The info is still there
Click on the 3 Blue Dots at the top in RP app
Go on signposts
Long distance travellers

The info is still there
Click on the 3 Blue Dots at the top in RP app
Go on signposts
Long distance travellers

EDGE=1.57/1.37 = 1.14
(edge-1) / (Book odds-1) =(1.14-1) / (1.57-1) = .14/.57 =24%  Kelly stake

My bets on bf are automated from 10pm the night before from excel using gruss betting assistant (my base price + 15% for profit and cover the 2% comm)
I never touch it just let it carry on on its own .
 

I have DS as a 11/10 (2.1) shot , (my top rated) , 1.83 looks a bit short to me
If I was betting in this race i would rather be on Le Breuil @ 4.5 (my 2nd best rated @ 2/1)
A no bet race for me as I only bet If its my top rated and @ greater odds than my estimated odds

As an aside : shouldn't your winning bets be multiplied by 0.98 to cater for the 2% min BF tariff 
ATB
VT

My bets on bf are automated from 10pm the night before from excel using gruss betting assistant (my base price + 15% for profit and cover the 2% comm)
I never touch it just let it carry on on its own .
 

FEB without Novice Chases
Favs Only

 

FEB without Novice Chases
Favs Only

 

I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data 
Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells  so should be ok now
As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16
Returned 938.36
P/L -29.64

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 1540.07
P/L -38.93
Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement
Taking  years you put up  2012 - 2021 I get.....

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 713.63
P/L 28.63
10yr return = 4%
Ex longest losing run 12

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12
Returned 426.35
P/L 32.35
10yr return = 8%
Ex longest losing run 11

Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound)
and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run .
I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure.
But you never know
G'Luck
ATB
VT
PS
Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out )
 
 
 
 

My bad
I just sent the results to Decembers sheet to save overwriting the results in the FEB sheets before copy & pasting to the post and didnt bother changing the month title

I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data 
Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells  so should be ok now
As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16
Returned 938.36
P/L -29.64

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 1540.07
P/L -38.93
Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement
Taking  years you put up  2012 - 2021 I get.....

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 713.63
P/L 28.63
10yr return = 4%
Ex longest losing run 12

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12
Returned 426.35
P/L 32.35
10yr return = 8%
Ex longest losing run 11

Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound)
and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run .
I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure.
But you never know
G'Luck
ATB
VT
PS
Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out )
 
 
 
 

@gbettle @MCLARKE

I wouldnt get 2 carried away with those results they are for NH tracks only
That is NOT INCLUDING mixed tracks ie Flat & Jumps and  AW & Jumps courses
I'll run a a month by month breakdown of all the tracks later (going out for some lunch now)

@gbettle @MCLARKE

I wouldnt get 2 carried away with those results they are for NH tracks only
That is NOT INCLUDING mixed tracks ie Flat & Jumps and  AW & Jumps courses
I'll run a a month by month breakdown of all the tracks later (going out for some lunch now)

Average winning odds of 2.08
Returned 364.67 to 1pt staked profit 22.67 ( 6.6%)
There you go

ATB
VT
 

Average winning odds of 2.08
Returned 364.67 to 1pt staked profit 22.67 ( 6.6%)
There you go

ATB
VT
 

Average winning odds of 2.08
Returned 364.67 to 1pt staked profit 22.67 ( 6.6%)
There you go

ATB
VT
 

NO just a blanket bet of all NonHcp chases

From 20yrs data
There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06
This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly.
The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00)
**For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc **
ATB
VT
 

If you look  @ the previous form of most French runners , (V.Soft - Soft the conditions most likely to occur in the month of Feb) you may find some correlation ?
You could also also try from the sample races
  french winners A All French Runners X     other winners B All other runners y                     Sum of winners A+B Sum of Runners X+Y                     Impact Value = (A / A+B) / (X / X+Y)                   IV of <1 not good     IV of 1 = average ,  so an IV of >1 is significant

Yawn

Yawn