clubgowi

EURO 2016 Wales - Northern Ireland

Two home nations meeting in France for a place in the last 8 of the European Championships............the script writers have done a good job !

Wales qualified in style, winning group B with a 3-0 demolition of Russia, a match which was over as a contest inside 20 minutes. They played 24 hours before Northern Ireland, who had a far more fraught game with Germany, where they lost 1-0 , but knew a narrow defeat might well be good enough. They battled hard, but could easily have lost that by 4 or 5 on another day and the mentally draining nature of that and a day less to recover and prepare, is a clear advantage to the Welsh. The Irish will feel that having met Germany in this stadium, this will have a more familiar feel to them, but not if they start playing where they left off, which is firmly on the back foot ! In that match Toni Kroos completed more passes (121-110) than the entire Northern Ireland team (!) , they have been on the back foot for much of the time here in France and only had four attempts on goal in two games and you suspect they will be starting to feel the effects. They do pose a big threat from set pieces, which Wales will be well aware of , but have only scored three from open play in ten competitive starts.

The Irish might take heart from a 1-1 draw between the two nations in a March friendly, but they were at full strength, the Welsh were without Ben Davies, Joe Allen, Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale, plus several others and were still the better team. Wales have the 2-3 best players on the pitch, with Gareth Bale head and shoulders above everyone and far more EPL quality in the ranks and stronger options off the bench and with this the fourth international start inside 13-14 days for both, that could easily prove decisive. The breakthrough goal will, of course, be the hardest to come by, but if Wales get it, the Irish will have to come forward and that will leave them incredibly vulnerable on the counter and Wales have pace and are very quick in transition. Two very together groups, but most of the quality and advantages are with the Welsh and they are the ones who will go home feeling a little deflated if they do not progress, for the Irish this tournament is already a success.

Wales -0.5 @ 2.07 at Sportmarket

  
 

EURO 2016: England - Russia

England always come into these championships with solid qualification results, the same old squad, talking a good game and with the rest of the world/europe laughing at the underachievers ! The first is still true, they were a perfect 10/10 in qualification, but this time everything else feels different, the old guard is gone , no Lampard, Gerrard etc and with a very young, but fresh, talented, hungry and energetic squad including Kane, Vardy, Rashford, Alli, Barkley, Wilshire, Dier, Sterling , Stones and Sturridge, who not only have a togetherness and self belief, but the repect of their peers . They have nothing to fear, seven of that group are aged 18-22, are only going to improve ( a lot) and will have many major championships ahead, anything they do in Euro 2016 is really a bonus .

Russia are exactly the opposite, they struggled through a weak qualification group and have conceded nine goals in warm up friendlies to France, Croatia and Czech Republic, 12 of their squad are in their 30th year , it looks like top scorer Aleksandr Kerzhakov's career is over and Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denisov arguably their two best players ( actually not really a debate in the case of Dzagoev) , along with several others were forced to withdraw and the ageing backline looks vulnerable and looks as if they were picked from the cast list of Dad's Army. On top of all these troubles ( Fabio Capello left the squad in terrible shape and devoid of confidence), it was reported that a number of players have had to sit out training this week and the two camps could hardly be in more polar opposite moods coming into these championships.

England -0.75 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Copa America: Colombia - Paraguay

This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.

Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?

Colombia's odds have risen to 2.15+ this morning, that probably relates to the "loss" of James, which is expected, but now means they are very backable, given that they hold almost every other advantage ..........


Colombia -0.5 ball 2.10 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Copa America: Brazil - Ecuador

Ecuador made a really solid start to World Cup qualifying and ended 2015 on fire, but recent form has tailed off and they conceded two at home to Paraguay and three away to Colombia and are meeting a team they have a bit of an inferiority complex against. They also play with two holding players, but in their case this is so that the full backs can press on and they will be looking to exploit both flanks and get as many balls into the box as possible. They have goals in them, but the defence is a weakness and the central defenders go missing at times and are quite frankly a liability, witness the recent games with Colombia and expecially the two goals conceded against Paraguay .

No Neymar for Brazil, but after the failure last year and World Cup debacle, they could do with a good Copa, they won and conceded in both opening games in those tournaments and I see this playing out similarly, both scoring and probably a Brazil win. This version of the amba Boys are inexperienced and like Ecuador, the central pairing in the absence of Silva and Luiz are vulnerable and will be dealing with a lot of crosses in this game.

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket
 

French Open: Stanislas Wawrinka - Albert Ramos

We sided with defending champion Stan Wawrinka through the quarters/semis and final last year, when he played out of his skin and beat Federer, Tsonga and Djokovic, he was a man on a mission and had promised something "special" at Roland Garros for months in advance. That is covered in my preview of his match with JWT and you can read or re-read those notes at the very foot of this email. I guess he is not quite as motivated this year, that would be close to impossible, but winning major titles is addictive and it is hard to give up something you own without a fight ! The draw has been kind and he will certainly not fear Ramos-Vinolas today and he cannot face Novak until the final.

No one has been more shocked by the progress of Ramos-Vinolas than the man himself and the 28 yo Spaniard has won a lot of fans by his open and honest interviews in Paris, he demolished Milos Raonic in the last 16, losing only 10 games. He has a "suspect" backhand and was supposed to get nervous, but showed few signs of either in an "easy win". However, Raonic did not give ARV the chance to get nervous by putting any real pressure on him and was too impatient to turn defence into attack and made far too many unforced errors in making the transition. Also, Ramos is a leftie and Raonic is 39-14 this year and 282-141 lifetime on Tour, but 4-4 and 29-25 respectively against left handed players and is clearly not as comfortable playing "southpaws".

Wawrinka is 18-5 since the start of 2014 versus lefties and 8-3 in the last 12 months, with all three losses coming against his nemesis in Rafael Nadal , last of those wins was just 14 days ago, when he actually beat Ramos 6-1 6-1 in Geneva. The Spanish player only won 25 points, just 13 of 32 on serve and he is very much, despite what he has achieved here, a journeyman player and in four previous visits to RG had only reached the second round ( and no further) once and at 28 yo he is not going to find huge long term improvement and sooner or later and it will be sooner, he will awake from this dream !

Having discussed how poorly he played against Wawrinka in Geneva, lets look at a h2h game in which he played well, the two met in the opening round at the US Open last year, Ramos played above himself, served well and Stan was a touch sub par, but the Swiss man still won by five games and in straight sets. He is 6-0 in h2h matches, 4-0 on clay, it can be close, but Ramos will have to again raise his game and Wawrinka have a bad day and for both to happen seems unlikely.

Stanislas Wawrinka -7 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

French Open: Stanislas Wawrinka - Albert Ramos

We sided with defending champion Stan Wawrinka through the quarters/semis and final last year, when he played out of his skin and beat Federer, Tsonga and Djokovic, he was a man on a mission and had promised something "special" at Roland Garros for months in advance. That is covered in my preview of his match with JWT and you can read or re-read those notes at the very foot of this email. I guess he is not quite as motivated this year, that would be close to impossible, but winning major titles is addictive and it is hard to give up something you own without a fight ! The draw has been kind and he will certainly not fear Ramos-Vinolas today and he cannot face Novak until the final.

No one has been more shocked by the progress of Ramos-Vinolas than the man himself and the 28 yo Spaniard has won a lot of fans by his open and honest interviews in Paris, he demolished Milos Raonic in the last 16, losing only 10 games. He has a "suspect" backhand and was supposed to get nervous, but showed few signs of either in an "easy win". However, Raonic did not give ARV the chance to get nervous by putting any real pressure on him and was too impatient to turn defence into attack and made far too many unforced errors in making the transition. Also, Ramos is a leftie and Raonic is 39-14 this year and 282-141 lifetime on Tour, but 4-4 and 29-25 respectively against left handed players and is clearly not as comfortable playing "southpaws".

Wawrinka is 18-5 since the start of 2014 versus lefties and 8-3 in the last 12 months, with all three losses coming against his nemesis in Rafael Nadal , last of those wins was just 14 days ago, when he actually beat Ramos 6-1 6-1 in Geneva. The Spanish player only won 25 points, just 13 of 32 on serve and he is very much, despite what he has achieved here, a journeyman player and in four previous visits to RG had only reached the second round ( and no further) once and at 28 yo he is not going to find huge long term improvement and sooner or later and it will be sooner, he will awake from this dream !

Having discussed how poorly he played against Wawrinka in Geneva, lets look at a h2h game in which he played well, the two met in the opening round at the US Open last year, Ramos played above himself, served well and Stan was a touch sub par, but the Swiss man still won by five games and in straight sets. He is 6-0 in h2h matches, 4-0 on clay, it can be close, but Ramos will have to again raise his game and Wawrinka have a bad day and for both to happen seems unlikely.

Stanislas Wawrinka -7 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

French Open: Strycova - Radwanska

Agnieszka Radwanska beat a very nervous looking Caroline Garcia comfortably in R2 and looks to have arrived here in good shape. Ahead of that match I wrote about her untapped talent on the surface ........ "That is been the case in three previous h2h matches with Agnie, which the Polish superstar leads 2-1, with all going to three sets and there has barely been a cigarette paper between them in those matches. This will be just Radwanska's second outdoor clay match of the season and it is fair to say that she has underachieved in Paris compared to the other slams, especially given that she won a singles and doubles tournament here as a junor. She has lost to Annika Beck and Ajla Tomlihjanovic in the last two years and at least subconsciously, I suspect her attention is already on the grass and US hardcourt campaigns ahead. She has the potential to go deep in RG, but it is early that she is most suspect and I expect Garcia to push her all the way today for a fourth time. "

H2h wise she leads BZS 4-0 and has won all eight sets played, despite all being on hard courts that gives Radwanska a big mental advantage and there is a good chance that the Czech player already feels she has surpassed expectations here, having lost in R1 at Roland Garros in her last eight apperances. If we remove Madrid (which is not really clay and is at "altitude") from the stats, she is 0-8 , winning just a single set in Premier and slam events on clay against top 20 ranked players and is 19-35 lifetime in slams against top 100 players.


Agnieszka Radwanska to win 2-0 in sets 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

WTA Italian Open: Serena Williams VS Anna-Lena Friedsam

I have to try a little on Anna-Lena Friedsam with the six game handicap start. The pair have met once before, at Roland Garros just under 12 months ago and it was close, with Serena winning in three and the match going to 30 games. ALF had a really good read on the Williams serve that day and in a first, let alone any meeting with the best player on the planet, that is unusual. Friedsam played solidly ( very few errors) in her first round win yesterday and should strip much fresher than Williams the younger who is making her first start of the season on clay and who has not played since losing in R3 in Miami , where she is an eight time winner of what she would consider her "home town" tournament. Last year she struggled in her first european clay court start ( 32 games) and then withdrew from this tournament in R2 and despite a fine record in Rome previously, you have to feel at 34yo it doesn't get any easier to come into tournaments "cold", or to make the transition to clay from faster surfaces.

Anna-Lena Friedsam +6 games 2.08 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

WTA Italian Open: Serena Williams VS Anna-Lena Friedsam

I have to try a little on Anna-Lena Friedsam with the six game handicap start. The pair have met once before, at Roland Garros just under 12 months ago and it was close, with Serena winning in three and the match going to 30 games. ALF had a really good read on the Williams serve that day and in a first, let alone any meeting with the best player on the planet, that is unusual. Friedsam played solidly ( very few errors) in her first round win yesterday and should strip much fresher than Williams the younger who is making her first start of the season on clay and who has not played since losing in R3 in Miami , where she is an eight time winner of what she would consider her "home town" tournament. Last year she struggled in her first european clay court start ( 32 games) and then withdrew from this tournament in R2 and despite a fine record in Rome previously, you have to feel at 34yo it doesn't get any easier to come into tournaments "cold", or to make the transition to clay from faster surfaces.

Anna-Lena Friedsam +6 games 2.08 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

Scottish Championship: Glasgow Rangers - Dumbarton Scottish Championship: Glasgow Rangers - Dumbarton Scottish Championship: Glasgow Rangers - Dumbarton

Rangers are going to return to the SPL this season , but would surely like to get the job done and dusted this evening, which they can achieve with all three points. They are head and shoulders abover the rest of the Championship, which is to be expected given the size of the club and their fan base and circa 50,000 will be waiting to kick start the celebrations tonight, to put that into some context, Dumbarton have averaged a crowd of 734 for their last three home games . Home boss Mark Warburton believes in an attacking style of football and his teams never sit on a lead, his side have averaged 2.64 goals per game this season and just shy of 3 pg at Ibrox, included in those numbers were two wins ( scoring 4 and 6 goals ) in the last two starts against tonight's opponents and Warburton will want to get the job done in style. His team have actually conceded ten ( !) in their last three starts, but they won the home game in that sequence and two opponents had arguably more to play for and far more offensive threat than The Sons ( just 8 road goals all season) possess and only basement club Alloa Athletic have scored fewer.

Additional bonus for Rangers is that getting this signed and sealed early will allow them to focus fully on their Challenge Cup Final with Peterhead on Sunday and more importantly go into the Scottish Cup semi final with their biggest rivals Celtic, seven days later as an SPL club, albeit one "in waiting". The hosts have scored four goals next time out following dropped road points in 4/4 games at Ibrox and can make it 5/5 today after a 3-3 draw at Raith Rovers on Saturday.

Rangers to score "over" 3.5 goals (four or more) 2.625-2.875 general quote
 

France Ligue2 Paris FC - FC Metz

Paris FC are like a throwback to Ligue 2 of a decade ago, maybe I am being harsh and they are just not good enough, it is "OK" to be bad, but to not give yourself the best possible chance to win, is unforgivable ! They are now ten points from safety, with eight rounds left to play and are going to get what they deserve from this season, I do not advocate violence very often, but if they are happy to sit back for 70 minutes + again this evening on home soil, no supporter should be charged for running onto the pitch and administering a kick up the backside to every member of the coaching staff ! Lybohy is again suspended and missing from the home backline. I feel they will at least attempt to go for it early tonight and 3 of their last 4 have gone comfortably "over".

Metz will surely come all guns blazing for three points, they are currently sixth, two points off promotion pace, but no one is going to get up to Ligue 1 by playing for a draw and 3rd spot is going to go to the wire and will, you have to feel, be claimed by the bravest of the pack. They have scored in 13 of their last 14 away starts (all comps) and conceded two or more in 7/8 on the road, 7/9 have gone "over" and both teams have scored in 10 of 13. I feel they are the more likely winner, but have to suggest the best value lies with ................over 2.5 goals 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.
  

Champions League Manchester City - Dynamo Kiev

This looks job done for City after their 3-1 win in Kiev, but the hosts are not playing well and that game aside, they have beaten only Aston Villa since the start of last month, with a couple of heavy defeats along the way. Main focus will clearly be the Champions League of course, but they also have to finish top 4 as a minimum and ensure participation in the competition next season and currently in 4th and with West Ham just two points adrift and Manchester United (whom they play in the derby game on Sunday) just another two further back, there is every chance that they will play tonight with one eye on that game.

Kiev were rusty in the first leg, that was to have been expected, they had not played a competitive game in eleven weeks,they have now had four games since the winter break and will be approaching full fitness and ready to show their best.

Dynamo currently lead Shakhtar Donetsk, who are flying in the Europa League, by three points at the top of the Ukrainian domestic league, where Kiev are unbeaten on the road 8-1-0, conceding just three goals. In the CL they won 2-0 at both Porto and Maccabi Tel Aviv and were 1-1 at Stamford Bridge with eight minutes left to play, before conceding a late winner. They did not venture forward much there until after the break, but of course cannot afford to wait that long this evening, they looked dangerous when they did and in Andriy Yarmolenko they have a world class player who has 110 goals and 72 assists for Kiev in less than 300 appearance and from out wide, he has been in the form of his life in the last two seasons and has scored in each of his last three starts.

City are vulnerable, Dynamo MUCH better than they showed in the first leg and the edge in fitness/freshnest has probably swung their way now. City have conceded in their last nine Champions League starts and at the Etihad in their last 14 ! They have conceded two or more in ten of those (!), including to BMG, Plzen, CSKA Moscow (twice) and Ajax and if Dynamo look at that record, they will fancy their chances of scoring a couple of goals, even if ultimately it might not be enough.

Dynamo Kiev to score two or more goals 4.0-4.33 general quote, given that they have to gamble and that City can progress if they concede twice regardless of what they do themselves and that they have allowed two in 71.42% (10/14)of competition home games ( which equates to odds of 1.40), how can that possible be correct ?

Manchester City to win and both teams to score 3.0 general quote
 

Champions League: Real Madrid - AS Roma

Real won 2-0 in Rome, just as they did in Schalke at the same stage last year, then making hard work of the home leg, losing 4-3 and looking in real trouble several times through a wild and craxy game . They will not want to put themselves through that again and something similar to the previous two second leg home ties a 3-1 and 4-1 win seems more likely this evening. Real have won their last two La Liga games, scoring ten, but conceding in each, Roma are on a roll since losing the first leg and have won three scoring 12 goals, actually the Real game aside they have won seven (22 goals) in a row and will be confident of finding a goal this evening, you would feel that the trip to Udinese on Sunday would now be given priority, but the heavy defeat of Fiorentina on Friday has given them a little breathing space in terms of top three and they can perhaps afford to give this their best shot, at least early.

Roma are much improved under Luciano Spalletti (see preview of the 5-0 win over Palermo below) and will see this perhaps as a true test of how far they have come, they had chances in the first leg, when they played almost exclusively on the break and it is easy to see them getting on the scoresheet again this evening. Having said that, Real have already lost at home to Barcelona and Atletico and will want to avoid a third, or repeat of what happened against Schalke last season, so again, when the dust has settled it has to be with a home win. 3-1/4-1.

Real Madrid to win and both teams to score 2.50 general quote, best alternative would have to be "over" 3.5 goals 2.17 asian line

 

Norwich - Chelsea

I previewed Chelsea's trip to in form Southampton on Saturday and spoke about their top six ambitions.........

"Two in form teams, the Blues are unbeaten in ten in the EPL, Saints are 5-1-0 in their last six and have not conceded a single goal in that sequence, but they have ridden their luck at times, there are only so many times that Fraser Forster can save them and they will have to manage today without the protection of holding player Victor Wanyama against what is a firing visiting midfield.

Top 4 looks beyond Chelsea after their terrible start, but they want to keep their EPL campaign alive and their stated target is a top six Premier League finish for what would be the 20th consecutive season. Saints are currently in that position, seven points ahead of the West London club, so a win today would be hugely valuable in terms of that particular ambition. Saints have not kept a clean sheet in 11 games against the Blues and have really struggled until recently whenever Wanyama has been absent, the defensive midfield pairing of Jordy Clasie and Oriol Romeu have done well this season when called upon, but the latter moved from Chelsea in August and will be well known by the visitors. I expect the visitors to be very focused on their next two EPL games, here and at Norwich in midweek, ahead of the home game with Stoke next Saturday they might start to think about the return with PSG, but it will be all about the Premier League in the interim and a fully motivated visitor can ask the Saints more questions than they have faced for some time."

The Blues had to battle very hard to come from behind and earn the three points and having done so, it is hard to see them being any less committed to the match at Carrow Road, where City have conceded ten in their last three starts and, as we have discussed several times this season, often urged forward too often by the passionate home crowd and probably therefore, not playing to their strengths, such as they are at EPL level. The Canaries have not won in eight starts, conceding three goals in five of those and failing to register themselves in five, even in the last two matches that they have taken something from at home to West Ham and Southampton, they have needed an awful lot to go their way, red cards, missed chances for the opposition and they will need to ride their luck to stop the Chelsea juggernaut now that it is up and running.

Chelsea -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Europa League Valencia - Rapid Wien

We know that Rapid are very offensive minded and they will arrive with an attacking mindset and looking to put further pressure on struggling Valencia and boss Gary Neville. The home supporters are very restless and it will not take much for them to "turn", especially as this is now, "season on the line time" for Los Che, who have nothing else left to play for. They come into this game missing a couple of key defenders, but no excuses are going to be accepted or even listened to by fans who have been long suffering and a really hard earned win over a poor Espanyol team, the first La Liga three points in three months, has done little to convince anyone that a corner has been turned. Rapid took 15 points from a Europa League group containing Villarreal and were close to making it to the CL ( see below), they are going toe to toe with Salzburg for the domestic title and arrive on the back of a 3-0 road win at highflying rivals Austria Vienna at the weekend and could hardly be in more confident mood, which is in stark contrast to their hosts. Very hard not to see goals in this for Rapid and Valencia look stronger on the front foot than defensively and this is huge for them, so it has to be ................


over 2.75 goals 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket...best alternative ......3.5 goals 2.90-3.10 general quote

 

Champions League Benfica - Zenit

I have spoken many times about the huge disadvantage that the Eastern European teams are at this stage of the competition, given that they have not played a competitive fixture for months, however, if they can find a way through the first knockout round, that turns around and they then have a edge in freshness and, to a degree fitness, through the latter stages and we have seen clear examples of that with Zenit's UEFA Cup win and the success of the Ukrainian teams in subsequent competitions.This stage is the problem and Zenit have struggled with it in recent campaigns, however, they look better suited to European football once more under Andre Villas- Boas and he and the Portugese players in his team will know plenty about Benfica and will be boosted by their wins over the home side at the group stage of the competition last season , winning 2-0 in Lisbon. In the last 16 in 2013-14 they were very slow out of the blocks and lost their two legged tie with Dortmund inside 30 minutes and there is a danger that they will one again pay for that lack of a competitive edge.

Hosts will want revenge for those h2h defeats and a lead to take to the return, but they have conceded in their last 6 of 8 domestic games, seven of which have gone "over" and Benfica have conceded in their last five CL starts and again, all of those produced at least three goals. We have already spoken about the value of away goals and AVB will want one as a minimum. Given that need, Benfica's vulnerability at the back and the possibility that Zenit could run out of steam and/or be caught cold, I have to favour goals.

over 2.5 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket

 

NFL Super Bowl: Carolina Panthers VS Denver Broncos

This feels a little odd, we almost always have an "outright" interest in the Super Bowl, but come into this game's season finale unemcumbered, after the Carolina Panthers landed our Conference bet last weekend. It was nice to get that done and dusted and I "needed" the win and payout, but now that has passed, it would be fun to have a really big position this evening. Having said that, I would not wish to go through the 49ers first and goal from the seven yard line in Super Bowl XLVII ever again and those four plays are etched on my mind by branding iron ! I rarely focus too long on losers, but I am sure that i will be screaming "run the ***** ball" on my deathbed ! If you were involved, you will remember ! Anyway, this has taken a sombre turn, so back to today's game .

I do not have a lot to say to be honest, hence the waffling ! My notes on the two Conference championship games and the outright position on the Panthers can be found below. Carolina eased home 49-15 and in truth it was even easier than that scoreline suggests and only a late season loss has stopped the Panthers having the chance to record a perfect 19/19 campaign this evening, but in some ways that will have released the pressure a little and that looked the case in their three starts since, when they have gone back to their free scoring ways and blitzed opponents early and they have been an average 23 points up at half time in those games, including a combined 55-7 against the two other strongest teams in the NFC.

I expect them to get the job done tonight and with a bit of flair, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been the MVP of this season and is nothing if not a showman and we can expect him to be well and truly up for this and I would not be surprised to see him run in at least one, maybe even two touchdowns. His counterpart Peyton Manning is in the twilight ,of the twilight of his career, he is, or has been a superstar of the game, but his arm has gone and he is old school and Newton is the future, the most versatile QB in football and I can only see this ending one way. Denver has a fantastic defense , but even they need to overperform to keep Newton, Olsen, Ginn Jr,  Stewart etc quiet and if they do not, Broncos lack the big play potential to get back into this if they fall more than a touchdown behind. My thinking is that Denver need everything to go right to win this, Carolina could have several big name players a little off and still come up with enough big plays to win and if everything clicks, this could get nasty for the Broncos , with many in the franchise still having nightmares about two years ago and the humiliating 43-8 loss to Seattle and this has the potential to turn equally nasty. To be honest, i hope not, as I need a little more excitement to keep me awake and I would hate to see Manning go out of the game like that, but it is a possibility and a live one. However, I will keep this simple and go with ..........

 Carolina Panthers -6 points 2.12-2.14 Pinnacle/Matchbook ..........both available with Sportmarket Pro

 

NFL Super Bowl: Carolina Panthers VS Denver Broncos

This feels a little odd, we almost always have an "outright" interest in the Super Bowl, but come into this game's season finale unemcumbered, after the Carolina Panthers landed our Conference bet last weekend. It was nice to get that done and dusted and I "needed" the win and payout, but now that has passed, it would be fun to have a really big position this evening. Having said that, I would not wish to go through the 49ers first and goal from the seven yard line in Super Bowl XLVII ever again and those four plays are etched on my mind by branding iron ! I rarely focus too long on losers, but I am sure that i will be screaming "run the ***** ball" on my deathbed ! If you were involved, you will remember ! Anyway, this has taken a sombre turn, so back to today's game .

I do not have a lot to say to be honest, hence the waffling ! My notes on the two Conference championship games and the outright position on the Panthers can be found below. Carolina eased home 49-15 and in truth it was even easier than that scoreline suggests and only a late season loss has stopped the Panthers having the chance to record a perfect 19/19 campaign this evening, but in some ways that will have released the pressure a little and that looked the case in their three starts since, when they have gone back to their free scoring ways and blitzed opponents early and they have been an average 23 points up at half time in those games, including a combined 55-7 against the two other strongest teams in the NFC.

I expect them to get the job done tonight and with a bit of flair, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been the MVP of this season and is nothing if not a showman and we can expect him to be well and truly up for this and I would not be surprised to see him run in at least one, maybe even two touchdowns. His counterpart Peyton Manning is in the twilight ,of the twilight of his career, he is, or has been a superstar of the game, but his arm has gone and he is old school and Newton is the future, the most versatile QB in football and I can only see this ending one way. Denver has a fantastic defense , but even they need to overperform to keep Newton, Olsen, Ginn Jr,  Stewart etc quiet and if they do not, Broncos lack the big play potential to get back into this if they fall more than a touchdown behind. My thinking is that Denver need everything to go right to win this, Carolina could have several big name players a little off and still come up with enough big plays to win and if everything clicks, this could get nasty for the Broncos , with many in the franchise still having nightmares about two years ago and the humiliating 43-8 loss to Seattle and this has the potential to turn equally nasty. To be honest, i hope not, as I need a little more excitement to keep me awake and I would hate to see Manning go out of the game like that, but it is a possibility and a live one. However, I will keep this simple and go with ..........

 Carolina Panthers -6 points 2.12-2.14 Pinnacle/Matchbook ..........both available with Sportmarket Pro

 

Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori

Kei Nishikori is now 26 yo and really needs to get that slam breakthrough win sooner rather than later, otherwise it might never come. He really ought to have won the 2014 US Open, but was a bit of a no show in the final, after beating Novak Djokovic in four sets in the semis, as you might expect and as you have to, to beat the world number one in any match, let alone a slam semi, Nishikori played all the big points well. It was no one off as the Japanese star is 2-2 with Djokovic on hard courts and he will probably fancy his chances today after watching Nole hit 100 (!) unforced errors against Gilles Simon in R4. This is not totally unknown for Djokovic (ok, maybe the number of u/e were) , but he was similarly making a lot of errors  in build up to that meeting in New York. Nishikori takes the ball very early, cuts out angles, stands high up in court and all that will increase the pressure on the #1 and I would certainly not rule out another upset . He was very relaxed and in confident mood after beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in three sets in R4 and clearly facies his chances ..............


Q. You are always concerned about your physic situation. Your body, wrist, legs. Are you okay now?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, it's all good. Feeling very good. My body and also tennis is very good. Very looking forward to play next round.

Q. What would you say is the most difficult thing when facing Djokovic for you?
KEI NISHIKORI: I think the biggest thing is he doesn't miss, you know. He doesn't give you easy points, any free points. I have to, you know, be the one to dictate. I think he's serving well, too.

It always makes tough player.

Q. You won in straight sets here. How much does that mean in terms of in case the next match goes, I don't know, five sets, four hours? Do you think you'll be able to keep the same level throughout the match?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, for sure. It's great to finish straight sets always, especially Grand Slam is two weeks, so it's long time. Takes some time than usual tournament. It's great to finish quick.

But actually, yeah, I'm feeling great. You know, even I think play four or five sets, I should be okay, especially live close. You know, it's easy for body. Yeah, I have good feeling. Yeah, like I said, looking forward to play next one.

Q. How do you feel both you and Novak have developed since that match at the US Open?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, that gives me a lot of confidence to play against him again, but we played in London and he, you know, kind of destroy me. It wasn't easy match for me. It's different condition, but I hope I can make some changes and try to play better.

Yeah. I'm ready to beat him again.

Q. Today's match was quite one sided compared to previous encounters with Jo. What's different this time around? What's going well?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, I'm surprised that I broke him early every set. I was returning well today, so that makes I think tough for him to have good serve all the time.

Yeah, seems like he doesn't have many first serve in today. That makes me easy to return my game. Yeah, I think today was, you know, very good tactics for me. Played very patient.

When I have opportunity, you know, I tried to come in sometimes. Using my forehands more and very aggressive certain moment. Yeah, I felt like everything was working well today.

Q. Few days ago, Verdasco, after he beat Nadal, said that he had watched his match versus Nadal seven years earlier ten times. Have you watched your match versus Djokovic at the US Open many times or never? Was there a reaction when you watched it?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, I do watch it sometimes when I want some, you know, confidence or, you know...

That match I played one of the best tennis in my life, so, you know, I watch couple times. Yeah, I'm sure try to watch again before next match, I mean, if he wins today.

Yeah, I tried to learn many things from the previous match.


Despite half of his ten grand slam wins coming at the Australian Open, Djokovic is 3-5 here in quarter finals and this is clearly his most vulnerable round in Melbourne, especially as his qf record in the other three slams is 23-3.

over 35 games 1.917 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket.

Kei Nishikori to beat Novak Djokovic 6.92 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket

 

Australian Open: Carla Suarez Navarro - Daria Gavrilova

Carla Suarez Navarro had a nightmare summer last year, losing in seven consecutive matches from just before Wimbledon, stretching to beyond the US Open, losing in R1 at two slams and two Masters events and top ten ranked players (she was #8 prior to that dire run) just do not do that ! Her overall slam record is not that good and in 28 main draw appearances, she has only made the quarters four times and never any further. She has steadied the ship with recent results, but since Rome last year, she is 0-6 versus top 20 players and 7-11 against anyone in the top 50, it is possible to pick holes in many of those seven wins too, with one retirement, three going the distance and the other three coming against opponents in very poor form. Gavrilova is one of the next wave of up and coming Russian players we touched upon earlier in the week, except that she has changed her nationality to Australian (1), something that went through last month, so all the home support will be on her side today. The 21yo is already ranked inside the top 40 and that will climb after this event, she loves hard courts and won the US Open as the #1 ranked junior in the world. She beat Petra Kvitova in R2 and followed up with a no less impressive 11-9 third set win over Kristina Mladenovic on Friday. After which she said “I’ve got nothing in my head. I’m just really excited and I want to hug the whole stadium, I just want to play again." I want to play again on Sunday, I’m just really happy, I can’t explain it.”

Already a "national hero" in double quick time after playing her part in winning the Hopman Cup, she can ride the momentum into the last eight against the very beatable Spanish player. The two have met once before in Tokyo late in 2014, CSN won 7-6 6-3 but it is fair to say the younger girl has been the big improver since, there were 11 breaks in that match and Gavrilova looks much more solid a server now.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Carla Suarez Navarro 2.10 general quote..............2.12 Pinnacle/Sportmarket

 

Australian Open: Carla Suarez Navarro - Daria Gavrilova

Carla Suarez Navarro had a nightmare summer last year, losing in seven consecutive matches from just before Wimbledon, stretching to beyond the US Open, losing in R1 at two slams and two Masters events and top ten ranked players (she was #8 prior to that dire run) just do not do that ! Her overall slam record is not that good and in 28 main draw appearances, she has only made the quarters four times and never any further. She has steadied the ship with recent results, but since Rome last year, she is 0-6 versus top 20 players and 7-11 against anyone in the top 50, it is possible to pick holes in many of those seven wins too, with one retirement, three going the distance and the other three coming against opponents in very poor form. Gavrilova is one of the next wave of up and coming Russian players we touched upon earlier in the week, except that she has changed her nationality to Australian (1), something that went through last month, so all the home support will be on her side today. The 21yo is already ranked inside the top 40 and that will climb after this event, she loves hard courts and won the US Open as the #1 ranked junior in the world. She beat Petra Kvitova in R2 and followed up with a no less impressive 11-9 third set win over Kristina Mladenovic on Friday. After which she said “I’ve got nothing in my head. I’m just really excited and I want to hug the whole stadium, I just want to play again." I want to play again on Sunday, I’m just really happy, I can’t explain it.”

Already a "national hero" in double quick time after playing her part in winning the Hopman Cup, she can ride the momentum into the last eight against the very beatable Spanish player. The two have met once before in Tokyo late in 2014, CSN won 7-6 6-3 but it is fair to say the younger girl has been the big improver since, there were 11 breaks in that match and Gavrilova looks much more solid a server now.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Carla Suarez Navarro 2.10 general quote..............2.12 Pinnacle/Sportmarket

 

NBA New York Knicks - Los Angeles Clippers

Recommendation: OVER 205

Odds: 1.943

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

The frantic schedule is taking its toll as usual for the weeks preceding the All-Star weekend. Too many players are injured and their participation in tonight’s games is questionable, or at least their level of performance if they still dress up.

Luckily the situation in this game is way clearer and I very much like this total line. Knicks have only 2 rotation players (Seraphin and lance Thomas) with knocks but they’re not so important. New York are perfect so far on their homestand with 2 wins out of 2 games. They were achieved against Sixers and Jazz though, both in overtimes and Knicks allowed 113 and 111 points respectively. So their defense is hardly at the required level, to speak mildly. Carmelo & Porzingis tandem is clicking at the other side of the floor though and this is what I need from them tonight.

Clippers played yesterday in Cleveland, lost by 13 points. The score doesn’t make them much justice though as the match was closer as a level of performance. So tiredness is a minus of course, yet Knicks defense is not at a world-beating standard as I said. Chris Paul is angry because of his omission of All-Star starters and will likely go for some 25+ points again, nobody is even close to stopping him the whole Big Apple, let alone Knicks roster. Redick leads NBA in 3-pts. percentage with just under 50 % efficiency, and DeAndre will just do some DeAndre things (dunking on people and making 50 % from FT).

I expect a sort of 102-108 game, more likely for Clipps, let’s see
 

Australian Open: Serena Williams - Daria Kasatkina

Serena saw off her opponent with great ease and in double quick time, but I am certain she will face sterner opposition today and regardless of what happens this week, I am sure that we will be hearing an awful lot more about Daria Kasatkina, who looks the real deal. Kasatkina is only 18 yo, but has been pestering the life out of her coach and team to let her turn pro for a couple of years and when she started to see what Belinda Benic was doing, she could not wait any longer. After winning Junior Roland Garros last year, she entered the US Open and won five matches, winning through qualifying and into the last 32, this is now her second ever slam event and it is clear they hold few fears for her. In the interim, she has already got her ranking up to #69 by winning six matches in Moscow and beating Venus Williams in Auckland a couple of weeks ago, after dropping the first set on a tie break, which tells you much about her battling qualities and she is not going to wilt like most other 18 yo newcomers would on this stage, playing an all time great.

Dasha thinks she is better than Benic, she might not say so in as many words, but it is clear from interviews and this is a confident young woman: “I was a little bit upset when Bencic started to play earlier and she started to beat other players and showing results a little bit earlier than me."When she started to play with the pros, I was still playing juniors and I was talking with my coach telling him ‘I want to play pro, I want to start to play pro, why am I still playing juniors (?) and he told me like ‘Dasha, be cool, you just have to get some experience from everywhere and really, the experience from juniors, it was great. "A lot of experience and good memories, I don’t regret it.”  Benic is obviously a "fan" and said that "Kasatkina has a very different game, she plays smarter than the other players.”

Win, lose or draw, seven games is too much and I suspect more than me , that Dasha will be shocked herself if the match is not closer than that and with many opponents already having lost to Williams before they step onto court, that self belief and positive mental attitude is HUGE.

Daria Kasatkina +7 games 2.0 Pinnacle Sports/ Sportmarket Pro

 

France Ligue2 Nimes vs Clermont

Nimes problems have been well documented and they sit bottom of Ligue 2 on 12 points, six from safety, however, if we gave them their eight point deduction back they would have five teams below them in the table and are clearly not the worst team in the division and recent form, especially in the goal scoring department has been good, with two goals in 5 of their last 6 starts and they have given themselves a chance of survival. They have some history of running into form at this time of year, in 2013-14 they looked in trouble at Christmas with only 15 points from 18 starts, but then collected the same number from the next eight (4-3-1) and last year, they went on a bit of a tear up with nine wins from 16 starts from November onwards which took them into the promotion race , before the match fixing claims stalled their run. The 29 points they collected in that sequence equates to 69 over a full season and that would have earned them second place and was the level they were playing at for three months and although this is not the same team, it does highlight their potential and they are not your typical bottom of the table team by any means.

Clermont are up to third, just four points off promotion pace and back on track after a mini blip with 13 goals and 13 points from five starts.

If we look at their last 30 L2 starts, they have collected an average 1.8 points and that is promotion form across almost a full season and they are clearly top 3 on merit. Two in form teams and both scoring for fun right now and each will surely be looking for three points and will be prepared to gamble to get them. Nimes will be without suspended central defender Anthony Marin.

We can expect this to really open up after the break with Nimes second halves averaging 1.7 goal per game and Clermont's 1.65 which are the 3rd and 4th highest in Ligue 2 .

Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Cordoval, Briançon, Harek, Paquiez, Ripart, Azouni, Savanier, Cissokho, Mounié, Koura, Marin, Lacourt, Maoulida, Tchenkoua.
 
Clermont : Jeannin, Caillard - Agounon, Avinel, Bockhorni, Djellabi, Laporte, Martin - Boulaya, Ekobo, Espinosa, Genest, Hunou, Jobello - Diedhiou, Dugimont, Laborde

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Premier League: Bournemouth vs West Ham United

These two played out a real thriller in the reverse fixture at Upton Park which Bounemouth won by the odd goal in seven and I expect if not something similar, then certainly goals and both teams on the scoresheet. The hosts and boss Eddie Howe have been growing into their EPL selves in recent weeks and have hauled themselves out of the drop zone. However, they seem far better suited to playing on the road and that was certainly the case last season in the Championship, when they were a pleasure to watch for 45 games with their free flowing attacking football, the one game they diverted from that, you will win no prizes for guessing, was at Griffin Park where for 90 minutes they turned into game stifling, time wasting, diving , thugs and got what they deserved in a 3-1 defeat . Not sure what happened that day, maybe they took a (Dr Jekyll) My Hyde potion on the team bus, but they tried to be something they were not and thankfully, that was a one off.

They spent big this week dishing out £10m for Benik Afobe from Wolves, he trained with the team yesterday and might be on the bench tonight, former Brentford striker Lewis Grabban has also rejoined the Cherries from Norwich City and he will not need much time to get back up to speed with the team mates he left the summer before last, their arrival will certainly increase competition for starting places offensively. Bournemouth have conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game, the most of any team outside the drop zone and United, who have scored 11 goals in five starts away to top 8 teams under Slaven Bilic will be confident of adding to that number in what seems sure to be a fairly open encounter. Their goal tally has dropped in recent away starts, but now that Dimitri Payet is approaching full fitness again, that should rise once more, he has created just shy of 50 goalscoring chances in the Premier League this season, almost double any other Hammers player. Their last league game , a 2-0 win over Liverpool in East London featured the second most attempts on goal of any top flight game this season and there should be plenty of goalmouth action again this evening.

over 2.75 goals 2.47 asian line/Sportmarket. I was originally tempted to go with the 3 goal line, but the more standard line is easier to play and odds are big enough already