four-leaf

Lisicky - Shvedova 3.50
H2H 3:3
Last 12 months 15-20 : 33:27 On grass it could be different but I think Sabine has had last 12 months worse in general than previous years. I saw her match with Stosur. It looked as easy win and it was. But she had, as usual, very riski play on lines and on that match it went on lines. I can imagine her hits a few inches outside.
Slava can play with Sabine on grass and for me fair odd is about 2.6. 
Slava is not so successfull on grass surprisingly. It is her the worst surface with one exception - Wimbledon.

I think Steve Johnson and Chardys match will go to five sets but I would'nt bet on it as there are to many uncertainties surrounding the match in my head like in what shape Steve is after his great title run in Nottingham. Will he be up for a second round match against such a good server like Chardy. Difficult to say so I'm just staying away from it. I feel Pierre-Hughes Herbert will win by 3-1 against Dzumhur and he will probably have some chance to win in straight sets. Denis Istomin should just crush Nico Almagro based on what matchup problems Nico has against Denis (5-0 Denis in the head to head with only 1 set won by Nico). Dan Evans can turn it on and make it to five sets in his match, and defenitely with the crowd behind him. I can also see Grigor Dimitrov and Gilles Simon playing a close five set battle.
Edit: Winningtipster has already written about Andrey Kuznetsov vs Gilles Muller so I left it out.

John Isner (-2.5 sets) to beat Matthew Barton for a 8/10 stake at 1.68 with Pinnaclesports
I just don't see how Matthew can have a chance in this one. He is ranked 248 and will go a bit higher after Wimbledon but in this match his lack of experience spells doom for him. He will eventually be broken at some point by Big John and will have huge problems in any possible tie-break. He will have to play the tennis of his life or more. He had problems against another big server in Albano Olivetti who's game when not serving is like an amateurs and this is a too big step up for him. Matthew is 11-5 in futures on grass with 1 title and 0-1 on challenger tour on grass. He is a 24 year old aussie and can play on grass just like most other aussies but he faces one of the best grass court players on tour (A tour which Matthew never has played on) with a serve that bites really well on grass. He qualified for Wimbledon and had a lucky draw facing another qualifier in his grand slam debut. He is most likely not really going to have a chance here even if he manage to make it to a tie-break.

Nick Kyrgios/Dustin Brown over 34.5 games for a 5/10 stake at 1.76 with Pinnaclesports
It's likely to see a match like this to go over 34.5 games since Dustin has a pretty good game for grass and it's his favourite surface too. I just don't think Dustin will get destroyed here. He can defenitely put up a show. With Nicks big serve and forehand he can hold serve easily and same goes for Dustin who has his own big serve and forehand. This bet would be won with a 7-6 7-5 6-4 win for Nick. I think this feels like a bigger risk then taking Feliciano Lopez to win in straight sets even though the price is bigger. Anyway if Dustin steals a set here this bet is most likely gonna be won. Feels like it's gonna be a small margin of error on this bet but it  might just work.

Back Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Skybet
Sick of the weather already, so here's a hoping that rain won't ruin yet another Grand Slam. Taking just one tomorrow, Wawrinka to beat Del Potro. As much as I like the Argentinian, he's yet to beat a player of Wawrinka's class in this season and I also believe that Wawrinka will be able to work with Del Potro's poor backhand. Unless Del Potro serves out of his skin, Wawrinka will take this comfortably.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/pEo4V1

In normal circumstances yes, of course a fit and motivated Fed would crush such a massive outsider as Willis. Is he even professional this guy??!! The two arguments however, for the match being a little closer than some of the odds suggest seem to be Federer's age now (turning 35 soon) and possibly whether his back is still troubling him. The thing that clinches it for me, is that even if Federer's back is not 100%, he'd still like to get through the match quickly and will therefore try and break and shut him out. Federer just has to play average and he'll take this chancer out 6-3 6-3 6-1.  Remember he never had his serve broken – and did not face a single break point all contest against Pella and Pella is number 52 in the world. Willis is 750th.
 
SKYBET under 27.5 games 5/6

1 PICK FOR THE WIMBLEDON:
MULLER-KUZNETSOV OVER 41 GAMES @1.86 pinnaclesports (higher odds at sbobet (1.89) and several other bookies)
Its a 50/50 match, with Muller's big game and Kuznetsov great return of serve, expect it to be 4-5 long sets.
 

You don't know mutch about Paire if you are surprised that he almost lost to Skugor or this nobody as you call him. Paire sucks on grass, a good reason to why the match went the distance.

Victor Estrella Burgos to beat Marcel Granollers for a 5/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddypower
I can see why Marcel is the favourite in this one but not this big favourite. Victor has had a pretty good warm up for Wimbledon so I think I'll just believe in him here although his best surface is clay but that goes for Marcel to. It's Victor at 77 against Marcel at 43 in the rankings and that's the reason I can't understand why Victor is priced so high. Being 35 doesn't stop Victor at all and being a claycourter doesn't stop him either from winning a match on grass. Claycourter Damir Dzumhur beat hard/grass specialist Denis Kudla today and so I don't see why Victor should be 3.25 to beat Marcel. Anyway, Victor for me.

Victor Estrella Burgos to beat Marcel Granollers for a 5/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddypower
I can see why Marcel is the favourite in this one but not this big favourite. Victor has had a pretty good warm up for Wimbledon so I think I'll just believe in him here although his best surface is clay but that goes for Marcel to. It's Victor at 77 against Marcel at 43 in the rankings and that's the reason I can't understand why Victor is priced so high. Being 35 doesn't stop Victor at all and being a claycourter doesn't stop him either from winning a match on grass. Claycourter Damir Dzumhur beat hard/grass specialist Denis Kudla today and so I don't see why Victor should be 3.25 to beat Marcel. Anyway, Victor for me.

2 PICKS FOR WIMBLEDON:

GULBIS-SOCK OVER 40.5 GAMES @1.82pinnaclesports
On other surfaces Sock is a better player at the moment, but on grass should be a very close match, probably 4-5 long sets.

HAASE TO DEFEAT SCHWARTZMAN @1.25pinnaclesports
Easy win for Haase vs. clay court specialist

 

Albert Ramos Vinolas to beat Vasek Pospisil at 10-3 Bet365 2 points.
It’s just such a good price! I think Ramos Vinolas is wrongly being pegged as just a clay courter here. He has to be one of the most improved players on tour and his performance to make the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating the likes of Sock and Raonic on the way, was really outstanding. He has not had much success in Wimbledon in the past but he has been unlucky enough to have been drawn against the likes of Del Potro and Federer 2 of the past there times. I saw his match against Istomin last year and for two sets I was really impressed by how well he moved and served on the surface before Istomin retired injured with a phantom injury. He is a much improved player 12 months later (particularly mentally as he used to be a bit of a choker) and I expect him to ride the confidence of reaching the quarters of the French to put in a good showing here.  His twitter accounts also suggests positivity regarding being back on the grass. Regarding Pospisil, he will be under a lot of pressure to defend the points he gained from his outstanding quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year. No doubt, grass is his favourite surface but he is having an absolute stinker of a year this year and it has to be remembered that he was being outplayed by leftie Vincent Millot last year in the first round when being 2  sets to one and a break down to Millot before Millot finally tired. He also benefitted from a Troicki blow up and a dream fourth round draw versus Ward to make the quarters. This year , there are hesitant signs that he is finding his feet again on the grass with wins over Kozlov, Kamke and Dzumhur but none of those guys are world beaters so he hasn’t really done enough for me to warrant such huge favouritism in this match against a confident player. Just think there is value on Ramos Vinolas but modest stakes advised!

Cibulkova - Pliskova 2.5
+ Cibulkova is in life form on the grass. she has stepped on new higher level on the surface
+ Cibulkova in final is better than Pliskova. Pliskova has to have an underdog to win. Cibulkova is able to win over favourite
+ Pliskova was a little bit tired against Konta at the end
+ H2H is 1:0 from Kuala-Lumpur where Pliskova won the tournament year before
+ Cibulkova can play dropshots it is important against slower
Yes there are minuses like worse service, play on the net, general level of game on grass. But as for me fair odd is around 2.15 for Cibulkova

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with Skybet
Again, this is the value bet imo. Not that big a gap between the two and Cuevas has the better finals record as well (Johnson is yet to win an ATP title in fact).
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/hy24Oc

6pts Roger-Vasselin -5.5 games to beat Dennis Novak 5/6 Marathon
We start playing 3 sets now and I'm going to take Roger-Vasselin to win without too many problems against Novak. I would expect him to win this 3-0 but just incase I'm going to take the games handicap. Roger-Vas has the experience here and is playing on his favourite surface whilst Novak doesn't have a whole lot of experience on the grass and has had most of his challenger success on the hard courts and the clay.

Puig-Wozniacki 2.94
I really don't understand such odds on un-grass player as Caroline against pretty decent grass player as Monica. Monica is on the top of her career and she is still young. On the other hand Caroline doesn't have good period. Even if I think she had ankle injury during clay season.
Look at stats on grass:
Monica 8-4(last 12 months), 14-11(career)
Caroline 9-4, 41-19 But look here. There  is only a few matches with grass players of Monica level or better. Makarova and Sloane Stephens are the only worthy wins.
 
edit:oh, sorry I added to another thread

Gregoire Barrere to beat Albano Olivetti for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Betvictor
Albano is a tall guy if I remember correctly from when he beat Mardy Fish indoors about 5 years ago and nothing has happened since then. He's done absolutely nothing on the tennis scene since that victory. He seems to be just a mindless servebot. No reason to have Gregoire as high priced as he is.

Hopefully Qualification matches can go here
I am taking Jorovic to beat Cepelova. Jorovic is very talented and I think that in a year or so, she will be in top 50, maybe even better. She was the best junior player in the world two years ago and this could be her year. She changed a coach 6 months ago and since then she made some positive results and moved at the WTA list. On the other Cepelove is not in some great form and she is declining since some solid results few years ago. Definitely worth a shot. Odds are around 2.30 (2.37 at Bet at home)

6pts F.Tiafoe to beat D.Guez 2-0 5/6 Boylesports
I also like the evens on "under 20.5 games" in this one. Guez only plays on the grass at Wimbledon and is now approaching 34. Ranked 237, he will be facing a very good up and coming 18yr old in Tiafoe. Ranked 166th Tiafoe prefers the clay, but he has already played a few grass games and has beaten players in good form such as J.Millman and I just don't see Guez having a chance here. 

4pts E.Bouchard to beat I.Begu 2-0 7/4 WillHill
Bouchard looked very impressive when I watched her destroy Lepchenko. Ofcourse, Bouchard has had some serious form issues since her break out year but she will always be at her best on this surface and Begu is much more suited to the clay. I think Bouchard can continue her power surge here and win in two but another option could also be -2.5 for Bouchard at around 5/6. 

1 PICK FOR ATP NOTTINGHAM:
1/2 AMOUNT ON VERDASCO -3GAMES HANDICAP OVER ESTRELLA @1.41pinnaclesports
1/2 AMOUNT ON VERDASCO -4GAMES HANDICAP OVER ESTRELLA @1.84pinnaclesports

Verdasco is very good on grass, playing against Estrella who has some results on faster surfaces but is a clay court player mainly.
 

5pts Over 20.5 games (J.Ostapenko Vs P.Kvitova) Evens Bwin
3pts J.Ostapenko to beat P.Kvitova 10/3 Sportingbet
Kvitova back on her favourite surface and getting primed for Wimbledon but will face some resistance in the form of young Ostapenko. These two played there only h2h only months ago at Doha and despite losing the first set, Ostapenko showed great grit and maturity to come back and win 2-1 and lose just 3 games in the 2nd and 3rd set. Kvitova will want to win ofcourse but I question if she is willing to really kill herself to win this one with Wimbledon around the corner and no points to protect in Birmingham. I'm going to take the games as I'd expect three sets here but can also see it going to a tie-breaker in atleast one of the sets. Ostapenko the value for me. 
 

5pts B.Strycova (-2.5 games) to beat H.Watson Evens PaddyPower
Strycova on her favourite surface and the better player in all honesty. Watson is a real hard player to predict. She wins the games she should lose and vice versa it seems at times. These two have played eachother three times and Strycova leads 2-1 and won the last meeting in straight sets this year on the Clay. It's interesting that one of the meetings back in 2013 was on the hard (Watson's preferred surface) and yet Strycova still won the match in straight sets. I fancy a 2-0 here but I'm going to take the games handicap instead. Watson went out early here last year to lowly ranked Kruncic where as Strycova got to the last 16. Watson beat Giorgi in the previous round here but it's interesting to see Giorgi double faulted TEN times. Strycova won't be offering that gift after just the 1 double fault against Pliskova. 

6pts J.Wickmayer (+4.5 games to beat J.Konta) 4/6 Skybet
6pts Over 20.5 games (M.Keys Vs J.Ostapenko) 5/6 Bet365
Outside chances for both Wickmayer and Ostapenko at Birmingham for me. Konta leads the h2h with Wickmayer 2-0 and beat her this year in a close match which were both won on a tie-breaker but this will be the first meeting on the grass between the two. I would expect Konta to see it through but Wickmayer should be able to cover this handicap as I think atleast one set will be a tie-breaker and we may even see three sets. 
I'm also taking the overs in the Keys Vs Ostapenko match. I think Keys will edge this with her power in the service games but believe me, Ostapenko can serve too! Keys looks like she is going to be ranked inside the top 10 going into Wimbledon and at still such a young age she has improved alot. These two have never met, but I think the quality in the service games of both make the O20.5 line look alittle bit silly. Ostapenko has already shown her grit when faced with multiple break points against Kvitova so I wouldn't expect her to lie down and get a hammering here. 
 

Andy Murray (-5.5) to beat Aljaz Bedene for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddypower
Aljaz was a mess just like Benoit Paire in that last match he played and I doubt he will have to mutch time to improve on anything. The match could not be streamed but from what I could see out of the statistics, Aljaz was broken for fun and so was Benoit and Aljaz only had average 65% won points on his first serve. Andy will have a party on that serve of Aljaz. He will get broken a lot by Murray and I doubt he will be able to get any breaks back. Seems like a pretty straight forward match this one so 6 games Murray should win by at least.