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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

four-leaf

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Posts posted by four-leaf

  1. 8 minutes ago, Swami said:

    Tsitsipas odds keep rising, now 2.1 on my book, that’s a big jump… the only thing that comes in mind is that words got out he might have some physical issues, otherwise a 0.25 rise in few hours is difficult to understand ?

    I'm really not into betting on ATP tonight, not even challengers or ITF. Only women appeal now. I've got a bet on Federica Di Sarra at 9.00 x the stake in-play and she's up 5-3 in third. I got her while being up 3-2 in second which she took by 6-4 so I'll give ATP a rest today.

  2. 6 hours ago, Fader said:

    First match today/tonight is Allen taking on Ding. Ding comes into this after winning the 6-red tournament ofcourse but the bet on him today isn't so much because of that. He beat Bingham, Ford and Un Nooh to win that event so it doesn't twinkle in the sky of achievements. However, Allen isn't playing very well right now and I think Ding should probably be favourite in this one. Perhaps Allen turns it around over the longer format and if he does then he would probably make the final. But, you can only go with what you've seen

    5pts Ding to beat Allen 11/10 bet365

    Thanks, backed u on Ding, 5-3 up now and 5 to go. I suspect he'll win it in the end.

  3. Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet

    I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?

    Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet

    Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.

    Double at 4.50 with Unibet

    Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.

    Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

  4. 8 minutes ago, Swami said:

    Ostapenko - Trevisan 2-0 @ 1.53

    meagre odds, but there is still value here imo... Ostapenko has an open draw here I don't think she might want to waste time with Trevisan, who is an overachiever (and for this one should give her full credit) but has certain limits which is very difficult to overcome at this level

    Can be hard to take out Ostapenko if she gets on a run here and I certainly agree about this.

  5. 28 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

    Her lack of game? She has embarrassed Iga twice in two months...

    She's lost something from last week and isn't in the same form now I've seen and it's gonna cost her more than a set if she continues like this in Miami. Doesn't matter if she's embarrassed Iga or not. If it's Sabalenka in a final again, she's toast.

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