Pirate53
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Posts
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Posts posted by Pirate53
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Hi guys. I have a share in Dutch Decoy with Owners Group. Runs tonight at Chelmsford 19.00. Joe Fanning takes the ride and would expect him to ride prominently (he usually does!). Trainer Mark Johnston reports all well and expects a place at least. GLIYF.
- Sparky Bear, LEE-GRAYS and Drac
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Kempton 17.10 Banoffee 1pt win 11/2 Betvictor
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Kempton 17.10 Banoffee 11/2
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Good news. Welcome guys, look forward to some juicy tips!
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Catterick 14.10
The popular choice seems to be Grace and Virtue, but she's up 7lb for her last win. I prefer Lord Oberon who will like the ground, has dropped 2lb and has a 3lb claimer aboard as well. 5lb should do the trick!
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Newbury 17.55 Hawridge Flyer 1pt win @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG
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Chester 16.40 Where's Jeff 1pt win @ 40/1 Bet365
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If you are looking to lay favs may be better to look at AW as fav strike rate is only circa 28%.
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Ham 14.55 One Last Hug 14/1 EW
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115 As: Daarik
150 As: Mohather
225 As: Trefoil
300 As: Mogul
335 As: Tis Marvellous
410 As: Queen Power
440 As: Verdana Blue -
Awful news. Condolences to the family. Much too young to depart this world.
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130 Ch: Chantry House
210 Ch: Cashback
250 Ch: Vinndication
330 Ch: Cilaos Emery
410 Ch: Benie Des Dieux
450 Ch: Imperial Aura
530 Ch: Lamanver Pippin -
Bet 39 lost
Staked £200.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 40
Borussia Moenchengladbach v Mainz 05 - BM + BTTS 2.35
Eintract Frankfurt v RB Leipzig - BTTS 1.55
Scnuthorpe v Crewe - BTTS 1.58 £14 @ 5.80 Sportnation
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Bet 38 lost
Staked £187.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 39
Coventry v MK Dons - Coventry 1.60
Middlesborough v Derby - Middlesborough 2.15
Southend v Tranmere - BTTS 1.65 £13 @ 5.67
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Bet 37 lost.
Staked £175.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 38
Bristol R v Coventry - BTTS 1.73
Liverpool v Everton - BTTS 1.5
QPR v Swansea - BTTS 1.65 £12 @ 4.27 W.Hill
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Bet36 lost (Bristol C red card messed it up!)
Staked £164.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 37 Win needed!
Oxford v Hartlepool - Oxford 1.39
Reading v Blackpool - Reading 1.89
Bournemouth v Luton - Bournemouth 1.42 £11 @ 3.73 VBet
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Bet 35 lost
Staked £154.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 36
Bristol City v Brentford - BTTS 1.72
Rotherham v Blackpool - Rotherham 1.95
Bradford v Morecambe - Bradford 1.50 £10 @ 5.05 Bet365
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Bet 34 lost
Staked £145.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 35
W.Brom v Middlesbrough - W.Brom 1.57
Newport v Orient - U2.5 Goals 1.67
Plymouth v Stevenage - Plymouth 1.67 £9 @ 4.36 Betfred
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Bets 32 & 33 lost
Staked £137.00
Returned £149.71
Aldershot v Barnet - BTTS 1.61
Brechin v Albion Rovers - BTTS 1.44
Al Ittihad Jeddah v Al Fateh SC - Al Ittihad + BTTS 3.40 £8 @ 7.93 Bet365
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Bet 32
Everton v Burnley - Everton 1.72
Hull v Nottm Forest - Hull 2.10
Leeds v Preston - Leeds 1.45 £7 @ 5.29 W.Hill
Bet 33
Peterborough v Doncaster - Peterborough 1.87
Hull v Nottm Forest - Hull 2.10
Brentford v Swansea - Brentford 1.65 £7 @ 6.47 Betvictor
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Bet 31 lost
Staked £123.00
Returned £149.71
Though it may not seem like it, every treble posted here has been the result of at least an hour studying stats,trends etc to arrive at selections. Sometimes I think i could do better simply saying: I think team A will win, or team B will lose. I'll stick with the method for a while but will let anyone following know if and when I change tack. Happy Christmas to all and good luck going forward. Will post some trebles tomorrow.
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Bets 29 & 30 lost
Staked £117.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 31
Watford v Man Utd - Man Utd Over 1.5 Team goals 1.81
Parma v Brescia - Parma 2.08
Vitesse Arnhem v VVV Venlo - Vitesse + Under 4.5 goals 1.85 £6 @ 6.96 VBet
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Bet 30
Burton v Rochdale - Burton 1.57
Bradford C v Salford C - Bradford 1.95
Exeter v Walsall - Exeter 1.83 £5 @ 5.61 Betfred
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Bet 28 lost
Staked £107.00
Returned £149.71
Bet 29
Brighton v Sheff Utd - Draw + BTTS 4.15
Aston Villa v Southampton - BTTS 1.54
Luton v Swansea - BTTS 1.54 £5 @ 9.84 SportNation
Pricing your own race
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Hi all, just started wrestling with Richards spreadsheet!
One question I can't answer myself is how do you rate a horse whose mark is dropping like a stone? There was one today that last won off 93 and has now dropped to 67 and came 7th of 8. What points should I have alloted to it?
Any assistance/opinions gratefully received.
Thinking about it, it was 7th in my ratings so maybe I don't need to do anything different.