Pirate53
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Posts posted by Pirate53
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Very close on all runners bar Game of life. I had %age chance of winning for 11 runners between 7% and 9.5%!
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Newcastle 18.00
Very close ratings here.
Mossbawn 13.25 My odds 9/1 11/2 No value
Jewel Maker 12.7 My odds 17/2 11/2 No value
First Response 12.6 My odds 17/2 9/1 About right
Baronial Pride 12.35 My odds 10/1 5/1 No value
Traveller 12.2 My odds 10/1 12/1 Some value
Boma Green 11.3 My odds 11/1 11/2 No value
Great Colaci 11.15 My odds 11/1 14/1 Some value
Curfewed 10.55 My odds 11.5/1 14/1 Some value
Mossbawn the Hugh Taylor selection so price has been depressed. Will try a small ew on Traveller.
If pushed to give a winner I'd say Jewel Maker.
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Sky Bet Chase down to 13 runners.
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In the above, to quickly determine the subtractor (150 in this case) you would say is the top horse rated 30 twice as good as the bottom horse rated 15. If no, make an estimate and re evaluate with a lower subtractor. If you think the difference is 25% then subtractor needs to be 120 giving 60 top/45 bottom and so on.
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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly
I.e if a race
180
178
176
172
171
170
168
167
165
In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??
Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????
I agree with favouring the higher rated. One thing to remember is that it's the difference between one rating and another that counts, rather than the rating in itself. If you start with the lowest (say its 165 as your example) and knock off 150 so the rating is 15 then carry on up to 180 which becomes 30. I have tried this method in my handicap ratings and it works. (the 150 is just an example, it may work better with 120 or whatever) Then you can adjust this new rating with whatever you want, say add 10 for a top trainer or similar. You can also then add things like apprentice allowances etc. Adding 3pts to a rating of 165 makes little difference but adding 3 to 15 does actually do something! Just my thoughts.
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I wondered why I couldn't find my posts! Lol, dickhead.
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Lot of late money for Roller. I risked the grand sum of £2 on the 4TBP market!!
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1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:
Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton:
Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 15/2 Value
Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same
Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 4/1 No value
Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 16/1 Value
Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value
Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 6/1 No value
Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value
Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow!
1st and 2nd but wrong way round! Pleased with that.
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6 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:
Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton:
Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 16/1 Value
Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same
Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 7/2 No value
Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 14/1 Value
Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value
Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 13/2 No value
Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value
Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow!
Are the bookies reading this?!! Roller now 15/2 within 5 mins
Edit just checked oddschecker, Roller hasn't been over 9/1 all day. Their feeds must be f****d. Will update original post with correct odds.
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Had a go at the 18.50 Kempton:
Roller 13.7 My odds 13/2 15/2 Value
Pink Jazz 12.55 My odds 7/1 7/1 Same
Oud Metha 12.15 My odds 15/2 4/1 No value
Power Of Time 11.55 My odds 8/1 16/1 Value
Cashel 11.45 My odds 8/1 5/1 No value
Makambe 11.45 My odds 8/1 6/1 No value
Moxy Mares 11.20 My odds 8.25/1 4/1 No value
Warning! I am experimenting here, please do not follow!
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On 1/25/2021 at 7:45 PM, richard-westwood said:
Rated this ....
Mister malarkey 7.8 11/1 14/1 VALUE
give me a copper 6.7 13.5/1 14/1 value
Definately red 6.6 13.5/1 25/1 good value
Cap du nord 6.6 13.5 3/1 poor value
Top 3 excluding cap du nord are all value bets in this race ....3 against field for me
In the process of rating this, can't finish it until I know the jockeys (I add a weighting for certain jocks). Currently Cap Du Nord is 11th on my list, around 20/1! Malarkey my top also.
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1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:
Wolves 19.10
Major J 21.4 My odds 8/1 2/1 No value
The Good Ting 19.43 My odds 17/2 5/1 No value
Lady Of Desire 19.37 My odds 17/2 10/1 some value
Desert Mist 19.34 My odds 17/2 22/1 value.
Dr Churchill my 5th rated at 18.62 one of 4 horses on 10/1. Would've been value too at 12/1 SP
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Wolves 19.10
Major J 21.4 My odds 8/1 2/1 No value
The Good Ting 19.43 My odds 17/2 5/1 No value
Lady Of Desire 19.37 My odds 17/2 10/1 some value
Desert Mist 19.34 My odds 17/2 22/1 value.
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Southwell 13.55
Rodney Redblood 22.2 My 6/1 7/2 No Value
Qaraat 21.8 My 13/2 4/1 No Value
May The Sixth 20.1 My 7/1 5/1 No Value
Onebaba 19.5 My 15/2 11/2 No Value
Jazz Legend 19.1 My 8/1 4/1 No Value
Passing Nod 17.1 My 17/2 20/1 Some Value
Tan 15.7 My 10/1 28/1 Some Value
Tan or Passing Nod ew the value and Redblood probably wins with Curtis aboard.
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Had a go at Plum 14.50:
Echo Watt 8.2 My odds 5/1 11/4
Shanroe Santos 7.9 My odds 5.25/1 5/1
Young Turk 7.65 My odds 11/2 20/1
I See You Well 7.15 My odds 6/1 7/2
Young Turk the value bet, Echo probably wins.
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14.10 I had 1 & 2 the wrong way round! Shows the ratings work to a point but rarely is the fav my no 1.
Also I struggle to get large differentials in my odds. That last race every horse was between 11/2 and 13/2! Need to find a factor or factors that move them further apart. Any ideas?
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Deleyll was my 3rd rated at 7/1, well behind top 2 but moved up due to NRs. Was a value bet so should have spotted that!
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Violet non runner leaves Melgate and Narjes well clear on my ratings.
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With 3 NR's since yesterday, the shape of the 1.10 has altered some.
Genuine Approval 20.35 My odds 5/1 11/2 Some value
Zayriyan 18.65 My odds 11/2 2/1 No value
Lady Of York 18.25 My odds 6/1 15/2 Some value
Socru 17.25 My odds 6/1 15/2 Some value
Global Style 16.70 My odds 11/2 5/2 No value
Blairlogie is 11/1 and I have 13/2 and looks a bet! Lol!
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10 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
Blairelogie 7lb claimer on with recent 4th at distance I like it's chances more and more looking properly at it.
@Wildgarden It's interesting isn't it. You could argue why bother to rate if you aren't going to act on the results! I'll have a dabble on Blairelogie too.
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@Wildgarden It's interesting isn't it. You could argue why bother to rate if you aren't going to act on the results! I'll have a dabble on Blairelogie too.
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I've had a go at the 1.10 Lingfield:
Genuine Approval 20.35 My odds 13/2 9/2 No value
Zayriyan 18.65 My odds 8/1 9/2 No value
Lady Of York 18.25 My odds 17/2 15/2 No value
Famous Dynasty 18.15 My odds 17/2 9/2 No value
Socru 17.25 My odds 9/1 11/1 Value Bet.
Global Style 16.70 My odds 9/1 11/4 No value
Blairlogie is 14/1 and I have 10/1 but looks a dog too.
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Added a weighting to compensate re Win Win Power as above. New ratings:
Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Win Win Power Rating 6.7 4/1 available My odds 11/2 Still no value here.
Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1
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Hi All
I've just rated the 18.45 Chelmsford tomorrow.
Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1
My first try so don't follow!
Bookies fav Win Win Power Rated 4.3, My odds 9/1!
Edit: Win Win has not won yet so ratings a bit skewed. Has Hammer Hansen aboard so gets 3lb as well.
Pricing your own race
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Lingfield 12.45
Pour La Victoire 18.75 8/1 9/2 No value
Heptathlete 17.7 17/2 15/8 No value
De Little Engine 16.8 9/1 9/1 About right
Para Mio 16.45 9/1 28/1 Some value
Rockesbury 16.1 19/2 11/1 Value