Pirate53
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Posts posted by Pirate53
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Newcastle 17.30
Dutch Decoy 17.08 5/1 3/1 No value
Tadleel 15.48 6/1 7/2 No value
Daafr 13.33 7/1 8/1 Some value
Anif 13.14 7/1 15/2 Some value
Ulshaw Bridge 13.09 7/1 11/2 No value
Red Bond 12.64 15/2 11/2 No value
Katheefa 11.03 17/2 12/1 Value
Dandys Gold 10.49 9/1 33/1 Value
Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me.
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Dutch Decoy runs again today, Newcastle 17.30. He won last time out and as such carries 4lb extra. Mark Johnston says the horse is in good heart and they are hopeful of another good run. Joe Fanning pilots again. Currently the favourite, you can get 10/3 at Betvic or Boyles. GLIYF.
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34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
There seems to be a lot of success on here with top rated selections which is good but is anybody finding success with "value" selections.
Not me so far. A big advantage of rating a race is that it gives you a good feel for all the runners. Most of the value selections look, sound and smell like dogs. Conclusion.....they're probably dogs!!
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17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Shows you need to be in the know .....won easy .......mine 2nd and 4th
Wish I'd done a double now. George Rooke on both of them, very cool apprentice. Note to self: Kelleway/Rooke +2pts!
- richard-westwood and Wildgarden
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27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I've rated this with 3 of the 6 test ratings and slow mo comes out top 2/3 times so I'll add him at 11/4 ...backed top 2
I'm on Scale Force. Not rated it but was sent to me as a tip this am.
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5 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Southwell 16.45
Mukha Magic 16.70 7/2 2/1 No value
Nicks Not Wonder 15.71 4/1 9/4 No value
Arabian King 13.43 5/1 4/1 No value
Mr Carbonator 12.96 5.25/1 8/1 Value
Be Fair 12.38 11/2 9/1 Value
Siavash 9.56 13/2 25/1 Value
Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!
Don't think much of the value picks.
Wins easy as you like! Kerrching!
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Southwell 16.45
Mukha Magic 16.70 7/2 2/1 No value
Nicks Not Wonder 15.71 4/1 9/4 No value
Arabian King 13.43 5/1 4/1 No value
Mr Carbonator 12.96 5.25/1 8/1 Value
Be Fair 12.38 11/2 9/1 Value
Siavash 9.56 13/2 25/1 Value
Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down!
Don't think much of the value picks.
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2 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Wolves 18.30
Secret Victory 16.31 5.25/1 11/4 No Value
Amaysmont 15.28 11/2 11/4 No Value
Al Muffrih 14.96 6/1 25/1 Value!
Snow Ocean 14.23 6/1 5/1 No Value
Poetic Force 13.98 6.25/1 10/1 Value
Atheeb 13.80 13/2 5/1 No Value
Kaser 13.44 7/1 7/1 About right
Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance.
Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble.
Top 2 1st & 2nd, Poetic 3rd, Al Muff 4th!
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Wolves 18.30
Secret Victory 16.31 5.25/1 11/4 No Value
Amaysmont 15.28 11/2 11/4 No Value
Al Muffrih 14.96 6/1 25/1 Value!
Snow Ocean 14.23 6/1 5/1 No Value
Poetic Force 13.98 6.25/1 10/1 Value
Atheeb 13.80 13/2 5/1 No Value
Kaser 13.44 7/1 7/1 About right
Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance.
Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble.
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18 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:
Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?
My suggestion:
4/5 1
6/7 0
8 1
9 2
10 3
11 4
12 5
13 6
14+ 7
For 10 yo and up add yrs since last win, then knock total off hcap mark.
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
Could do with doing something regarding how I score an horse regarding its handicap mark . I’ve noticed if I rate a race and it has some older horses up against younger up and coming horses, the older horses rate higher because they have usually won off higher marks in the past so they get top points, where as an up and coming horse might be racing on a mark it hasn’t raced off before so scores lower. Not saying the older horses shouldn’t be top rated but I’ve got a feeling it won’t be accurate long term .
Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?
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1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:
Kempton 18.30
Precision Storm 19.33 4.75/1 9/4 No value
No Nay Bella 17.81 5/1 11/2 Some Value
Toro Dorado 17.58 5.25/1 13/2 Value
Charlie Arthur 16.58 5.75/1 7/1 Value
Rick Blaine 16.00 6/1 25/1 Value
Party Island 13.16 15/2 15/2 About right
El Salvaje 12.19 8/1 7/2 No value
Top rated no bet.
I have a bet on El Salvaje from a tipster I follow. Bit worried now I've done this!!
I was right to be worried!
Top 4 came 2nd-5th.
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Kempton 18.30
Precision Storm 19.33 4.75/1 9/4 No value
No Nay Bella 17.81 5/1 11/2 Some Value
Toro Dorado 17.58 5.25/1 13/2 Value
Charlie Arthur 16.58 5.75/1 7/1 Value
Rick Blaine 16.00 6/1 25/1 Value
Party Island 13.16 15/2 15/2 About right
El Salvaje 12.19 8/1 7/2 No value
Top rated no bet.
I have a bet on El Salvaje from a tipster I follow. Bit worried now I've done this!!
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Southwell 17.40
Samovar 15.36 4.75/1 3/1 No value
Nick Vedder 13.63 11/2 9/4 No value
Knowing Glance 12.66 6/1 11/2 About Right
Triple Spear 12.43 6.25/1 14/1 Value
Another Angel 12.23 13/2 16/1 Value
Ventura Flame 12.02 13/2 14/1 Value
Excessable 11.76 7/1 7/2 No value
Top 2 way ahead so no bet for me.
Excessable interesting, came 3rd behind Samovar last time out. Hugh Taylor selection.
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3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Toranado queen just touched off ...nice rating
3rd rated wins, ratings were v close for all runners except Nawafeth.
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Wolves 19.10
Stay Classy 16.69 9/2
Toronado Queen 16.13 9/2
Lottie Marie 15.92 5/1
Stay Classy value 10.5 Betfair
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I had a tenner ew on Canelo but didn't get on Takingrisks. TV/Firestick playing up and by the time I sorted it the race was over!
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2 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Kempton 14.00
Rochester House 13.32 8/1 7/1 No value
Amtiyaz 13.13 8/1 2/1 No value
Hasanabad 12.95 17/2 10/1 Value
Koeman 12.57 9/1 12/1 Value
Dal Horrisgle 11.67 19/2 18/1 Value
Cosmelli 11.29 10/1 40/1 Value
Charlie D 10.78 10.5/1 12/1 Value
Chipiron 10.57 10.5/1 7/1 No Value
Vibrance 9.63 12/1 5/1 No value
Cleonte 8.97 13/1 33/1 Value
To Be Wild 8.50 14/1 33/1 Value
Amtiyaz should win but too short imo. I would have a bet on Chipiron if it drifts out.
Amtiyaz 2nd rated wins easily.
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My ratings, not confident!
Give me a Copper 20.45 7/1
Mr Malarkey 19.70 15/2
Canelo 18.75 8/1
Takingrisks 17.4 17/2
Rockys Treasure 16.65 9/1
Boldmere 14.9 10/1
One For The Team 13.0 12/1
Musical Slave 12.4 12.5/1
Aye Right 11.85 13/1
Cap Du nord 11.80 13/1
The Butcher Said 10.9 14/1
Try as I may I can't get Cap Du Nord any higher unless I cook the books! No uplift for trainer or jockey, No form at the distance.
Obvious value is Takingrisks ew. I fancy Canelo.
- Villa Chris, MCLARKE, BBBC and 1 other
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Kempton 14.00
Rochester House 13.32 8/1 7/1 No value
Amtiyaz 13.13 8/1 2/1 No value
Hasanabad 12.95 17/2 10/1 Value
Koeman 12.57 9/1 12/1 Value
Dal Horrisgle 11.67 19/2 18/1 Value
Cosmelli 11.29 10/1 40/1 Value
Charlie D 10.78 10.5/1 12/1 Value
Chipiron 10.57 10.5/1 7/1 No Value
Vibrance 9.63 12/1 5/1 No value
Cleonte 8.97 13/1 33/1 Value
To Be Wild 8.50 14/1 33/1 Value
Amtiyaz should win but too short imo. I would have a bet on Chipiron if it drifts out.
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Welcome to the forum Robbo. Any questions just ask away. Someone will always help if they can.
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Double Legend 14/1 on my ratings so would have been value. Must post the whole field from now on. 1st and 3rd rated came 3rd and 2nd. Proves these ratings are working to a degree.
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Lingfield 16.05
Arabescato 12.78 13/2 11/4 No value
Cafe Milano 10.76 8/1 7/1 No value
Libretta 10.61 8.25/1 11/1 Some value
Dream Point 10.35 17/2 6/1 No value
Bird To Love 10.08 9/1 25/1 Value
Gold Souk 9.26 10/1 5/1 No value
Libretta value but Arabescato too far ahead so wins for me.
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8 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:
Lingfield 12.45
Pour La Victoire 18.75 8/1 9/2 No value
Heptathlete 17.7 17/2 15/8 No value
De Little Engine 16.8 9/1 9/1 About right
Para Mio 16.45 9/1 28/1 Some value
Rockesbury 16.1 19/2 11/1 Value
Value bet Rockesbury 2nd.
Racehorse Syndicates
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Another run for Dutch Decoy today, Wolves 16.55. was 2nd lto after running lazily in the first half of the race and leaving himself too much to do. Runs today off same mark, is currently favourite and has Fanning aboard as usual. Trainer Mark Johnston expects at least a place. I hope for a win! GLIYF.