Pirate53
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Posts posted by Pirate53
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Bath 14.10 Cappananty Con 1pt win @ 5/1 Bet365
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Kempton 17.10 Fresh 1pt win @ 5/1 Bet365
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Musselburgh 14.25 Naamoos 1pt win @ 13/2 Betfred
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Chelmsford 17.25 Shalla Asker 1pt win @ 5/1 Bet365
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Cheltenham 16.15 Moonlighter 1pt win @ 18/1 Betfred
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Southwell 14.10 Thawry 1pt win @ 6/1 Bet365
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Wolves 17.20 Excelinthejungle 1pt win @ 11/2 PP
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OK, my dart at the Ultima.
Pym 19.7
Happygolucky 18.6
Cepage 18.45
Aye Right 18.35
Alnadam 16.25
OK Corral 16.05
Milan Native 15.80
Vintage Clouds 15.40
My odds range 11/1 to 15/1. Pym and Cepage both value bets. Struggle to get any prices down near 5/1 may need a rethink.
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Lingfield 16.33 Vina Bay 1pt win @ 10/3 Hills
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Sandown 14.25 Langer Dan 1pt win @ 9/2 Bet365
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Lingfield 12.30 Monsaraz 1pt win @ 11/4 Bet365
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Carlisle 13.00 Evita Du Mesnil 1pt win @ 11/4 Hills
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Lingfield 14.50 Mercurist 1pt win 15/8 Unibet
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Newcastle 14.15 Flamboyant Joyaux 1pt win @ 7/2 Coral
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Wolves 19.40 Morlaix 1pt win @ 9/1 Betvictor
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Dutch Decoy out again tonight so had to rate the race.
Newcastle 19.00
Dutch Decoy 19.07 11/2 5/2 No value
Theotherside 15.98 7/1 16/1 Value
The Great Heir 15.06 15/2 7/2 No value
Old News 14.48 8/1 15/2 About Right
The Met 14.03 8.25/1 9/1 Some value
Seas Of Elzaam 13.81 17/2 6/1 No value
Dutch is way ahead so my money will be down if i can get 3/1. Theotherside may be worth a dabble in Betfair 4TBP market.
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7 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Can't do this as often as I'd like.
Southwell 19.00
Lord Oberon 17.88 11/2 7/4 No Value
Zylan 16.27 13/2 20/1 Value
Excessable 15.60 6.75/1 11/2 No Value
Rock Sound 15.53 6.75/1 11/4 No Value
Garth Rocket 15.07 7/1 10/1 Value
Medicine Jack 14.02 15/2 12/1 Value
Alsvinder 13.86 8/1 28/1 Value
Katheefa 13.21 17/2 17/2 About Right
Much closer than the bookies have it. Lord Oberon well ahead, should win. Excessable could be the EW bet if no NR's.
Top 4 came 3rd,2nd,4th,1st. Zylan was the value!
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Can't do this as often as I'd like.
Southwell 19.00
Lord Oberon 17.88 11/2 7/4 No Value
Zylan 16.27 13/2 20/1 Value
Excessable 15.60 6.75/1 11/2 No Value
Rock Sound 15.53 6.75/1 11/4 No Value
Garth Rocket 15.07 7/1 10/1 Value
Medicine Jack 14.02 15/2 12/1 Value
Alsvinder 13.86 8/1 28/1 Value
Katheefa 13.21 17/2 17/2 About Right
Much closer than the bookies have it. Lord Oberon well ahead, should win. Excessable could be the EW bet if no NR's.
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My tilt at the Ascot 14.25
Notachance 19.10 8/1 13/2 No Value (Unlikely to run)
Jerrysback 17.90 9/1 7/2 No Value
Cobolobo 17.75 9/1 9/1 About right
Regal Encore 17.60 9/1 10/1 Some value
Captain Chaos 16.85 19/2 8/1 No Value
Newtide 16.35 10/1 6/1 No Value
Cloudy Glen 16.00 10/1 12/1 Value
Yalltari 15.65 10.5/1 10/1 About right
Cobolobo EW is the bet for me.
I'm on Jerrysback thru a tipster, but not convinced!
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33 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:
Kempton 15.55
Rogue Tide 16.77 7/1 10/1 Value
Pink Jazz 14.45 8.25/1 9/1 Some value
Mabre 13.96 9/1 4/1 No Value
Aureum 13.85 9/1 3/1 No value
Malvern 12.92 9.75/1 20/1 Value
Tommy Rock 12.56 10/1 11/1 About right
Brunel Charm 12.49 10/1 7/2 No value
The bet is Pink Jazz ew for me.
Top rated 3rd, 4th rated 2nd. Muddling race. Tommy Rock drifted to big value, but who would have bet on it with a drift like that?
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Kempton 15.55
Rogue Tide 16.77 7/1 10/1 Value
Pink Jazz 14.45 8.25/1 9/1 Some value
Mabre 13.96 9/1 4/1 No Value
Aureum 13.85 9/1 3/1 No value
Malvern 12.92 9.75/1 20/1 Value
Tommy Rock 12.56 10/1 11/1 About right
Brunel Charm 12.49 10/1 7/2 No value
The bet is Pink Jazz ew for me.
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19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
I think if you have big priced horses in your top 3 then they are worth playing ...you have seen numerous times that they can win or go close .....generally I go with the best hcapped horses....so if my top rated was 5/1 +3 ....and my 2nd rated was 10/1 +1 ....I'd go ew on the 2nd rated just because it's not being asked to do much more than it's done before.....I also use highest value place last 3 runs as a final bonus point .....so if top rated was placed in 20000 last time .....and the 2nd rated was placed 3rd in a 46000 I'd favour the latter for certain
I agree. I tend to use my ratings in conjunction with other factors. I.E if a tipster I follow tips a horse I rate the race to see how the selection looks, then maybe I'll increase or decrease my bet. I also check the top 3 rated using my old selection criteria and see if they 'stack up'. If they do then it's a bet!
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2 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Wolves 16.55
Dutch Decoy 22.51 7/1 11/4 No Value
Baby Steps 21.51 8/1 5/1 No Value
Tintoretto 19.27 9/1 10/1 Some Value
Parallel World 18.82 19/2 9/2 No Value
Mohareb 18.66 19/2 6/1 No Value
Borsdane Wood 18.64 19/2 28/1 Value
Masked Identity 18.43 9.75/1 8/1 No Value
Fighting Tem 17.94 10/1 20/1 Value
Chookie Dunedin 16.80 11/1 12/1 Some Value
Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.
Dutch 4th, Tintoretto 2nd had a bit of ew money! Winner Chookie was a value bet.
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Wolves 16.55
Dutch Decoy 22.51 7/1 11/4 No Value
Baby Steps 21.51 8/1 5/1 No Value
Tintoretto 19.27 9/1 10/1 Some Value
Parallel World 18.82 19/2 9/2 No Value
Mohareb 18.66 19/2 6/1 No Value
Borsdane Wood 18.64 19/2 28/1 Value
Masked Identity 18.43 9.75/1 8/1 No Value
Fighting Tem 17.94 10/1 20/1 Value
Chookie Dunedin 16.80 11/1 12/1 Some Value
Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.
Naps - Wednesday 7th April
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Lingfield 15.00 Headora 1pt win @ 10/3 Bet365