richard-westwood

Will be lamenting if the  C & M Johnson (having plenty of winners)  GG, their only one out today wins the 630 windsor if i don't have a nibble at the 11/1
 
Lamenting that result.

Just a few singles bets today as prices are generally short and I have no enthusiasm for a multiple.  May look at Windsor later if I can make time
2.45 Ayr Starshiba 0.5 ew at 5/1 and Spacer 0.5 ew at 5/1 (4TBP, rare offer on Sportsbook, @MCLARKE should be proud of me, haha
3.20 Ayr Tilsit 0.5 win at 13/2
2.25 N Abb Mascat 2.5 pts win at 2.98 = poss profit of 4.85 (my PL nap today)
3.00 N Abb Nelsons Rock 1 pt win at 4.9 (has to bounce back)
3.35 N Abb Manor Park 1 pt win at 10/30
Total stakes = 7 pts
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RESULTS UPDATE
Awful run by my Nap bet.  The horse was up 8 lbs and although it was a penalised last time out winner I wouldn't expect it to be beaten 18 length!.  I have no idea why I only put half a point on Tilsit, it should have been 1 point, I think I confused myself over the price as opposed as opposed to the horse's rank in having a chance to win.  I did get rewarded a place with Starshiba coming fourth.  I don't have the enthusiasm to open loads of betting accounts to take advantage of the extra places offered by the many bookmakers trying to suck in mug punters.  Obviously the shrewdies on the forum will gain handsomely from the offers.  My loss today was 2.25 pts so no disaster.  MTD -29.65 & YTD -172.67
It is Glorious Goodwood tomorrow.  Very low class racing at Yarmouth and Beverley.  Worcester & Perth offer some class 3 and 4 races for those who may need some respite from the heat of the class action at Goodwood.

I have made nice profits backing EW with Sky when they offer 4 places in 8/9 runner races or 5 places in 12/13 runner races.

Just be careful backing  big priced horses e/w  with skybet  as their prices are usually smaller and not bog  but you can bet sp instead. in some races   PP & BF do  the same number of place & are bog also BF give you 3 boosts to use  each day on horse races.

Results:
 
Chelmsford City
2.45 - Emperor Spirit @ 9/2 -  9th 
Dubai Station @ 11/2 - 5th
 
Pontefract
3.30 - Corinthia Knight - 9/4 - 1st 
4.05 - Dubai Icon @ 8/1 - 4th
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Thankfully I was able to find a winner and just about covered my losses for today.  I was looking at next week and I think I will save my money until Goodwood starts on Tuesday.

1.45 Pont Mrs Trump 5/2 (My PL Nap)
2.45 Chlm Dubai station 7/2
2.55 Pont Highwaygrey 7/2
3.05 Uttx Peaches And Cream 5/1
6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 stakes with poss return of 466.66 points
Singles: 0.5 pts win
2.45 Chlm Tomah 14/1
2.30 Uttx Makthecat 10/1
3.05 Uttx Cheltenham De Vaig 9/1
3.30 Pont Equiana Springs 10/1
4.05 Pont Magical Morning 8/1
= Total stakes 8 pts today
Good luck to all
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zilch so far.  I will have another half a point on Magical Morning in the 4.05 Pont at 9/1 to try and get out at B/E
8.5 pts staked today
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RESULTS UPDATE
Well nothing went right for me today but I learnt something.  In the last race with Magical Morning I had previously thought that the bottom weight Alflaila would have been my choice of the principal contenders for the race.  I had been out in the afternoon and when I got back home I just looked at the situation and adjusted my bets with Magical Morning to B/E.  However, most of my singles bets are based on what could happen if the principal contenders fail to fire.  Hence I should have had a recovery bet on Owen Burrows horse to win the race.  In future I will consider the first three in the betting at 10 pm and then take another look at 10 am.  If they are the same then I will focus on them to see which one of the thee looks to have the best chance of winning.  If another horse(s) takes any of the first three spots I will include that those horses as well to look at.  I will not dismiss the original top three in the betting as the odds compilers had good reason to have them there.  In theory I could be looking at 6 horses but In the main there will probably be only 4/5 to look at.  Of course we all know that in the run up to the race the market could change again, however, I can't spend all day looking at the runners, especially with my low level of investment in horse racing.
My loss today was 8.5 pts.  MTD -27.40 and YTD -170.42
Spent too much time watching the 1939 film "The Four Feathers" this evening.  Lovely old film
 

330 pont 
Origin trail  7.8 5/2 
Equiano springs  7.6 9/1 
Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? 

No price lol...but 66/1 on origin by 2 lengths .. eek ???

It's or more 

It's or more 

No price lol...but 66/1 on origin by 2 lengths .. eek ???

330 pont 
Origin trail  7.8 5/2 
Equiano springs  7.6 9/1 
Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? 

Lol ...tbh I'm always learning and trying to make the bets straight forward and clear and now they are  ....I wanted to get the ratings consistent enough to be able to blindly trust the top 3 or 4 ....and computerised they are there now ......and time and time again they win or place so backing ew you'll always get a good run for your money with lots of returns and even if the ew returns are small ....I get it  ..its good for morale and sometimes you need that backing horses 
So all I gotta do now is back them ew with sky extra place ... or better and that's it ....just check the results after .....I love simplicity lol ? 
And I do like stout ...?

330 pont 
Origin trail  7.8 5/2 
Equiano springs  7.6 9/1 
Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? 

330 pont 
Origin trail  7.8 5/2 
Equiano springs  7.6 9/1 
Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? 

330 pont 
Origin trail  7.8 5/2 
Equiano springs  7.6 9/1 
Just a fun bet today ....very trappy race and there are 1 or 2 course specialists but these 2 are .4 over the rest so can't go ew at 5/2 but I'll try 4pt win origin ...and 1pt ew equiano ....also skybet are offering 33/1 on origin winning by 1 length or more and equiano finishing 2nd ...I'll try 1pt on that !!!... quiet day so more a fun bet for a bit of interest ? 

Too true, I am a Stones bitter man and leave the euro fizz to the youngsters !

Analysis of yesterdays King George in relation to Group think. (and yes hindsight is a marvalous thing but so is foresight).
Fav        Westover 3yo up against solid performers its figures didn't match so it was fav on perceived "potential"
2nd fav Mishriff has earned most of its money globe trotting against reasonable opposition its best race being on dirt.
3nd fav Emily Upjohn (new trip) 3yo same as Westover, perceived "potential" did anyone rate that a good oaks? looked moderate to me.
              Broom always promised/hyped but never produced much.
              Torquator Tasso wont the premier 12f race in Europe (the arc) beaten by a strong horse previously namely Alpinista and went off at an unbelievable                    16/1 in this.
              Pyledriver always underestimated but a solid gr1 winner (not a sexy stable?) but always delivered in group races including 3rd btn 1 1/4in the St Leger                despite its zigzagging so that was never going to stop at 12f and was available at 33/1 for and hour on bet365 and others.
Conclusion
Go with what you can see yourself (all the form is available) and not what you are told, solid form is far more reliable than "potential"
Prices are rarely representative of a horses chance just the opinion of group think or the bookmakers liabilities. The horse never knows
what price it is.
 This wasnt a bad Group1 it actually worked out to form at the trip and ground.
 Going forward if the Arc comes up soft i predict Alpinista and Torquator Tasso  and Pyledriver will be there or thereabouts in that order                       unless something exceptional pops up between now and then. The 3yo's look substandard to me.
 

Lol ...tbh I'm always learning and trying to make the bets straight forward and clear and now they are  ....I wanted to get the ratings consistent enough to be able to blindly trust the top 3 or 4 ....and computerised they are there now ......and time and time again they win or place so backing ew you'll always get a good run for your money with lots of returns and even if the ew returns are small ....I get it  ..its good for morale and sometimes you need that backing horses 
So all I gotta do now is back them ew with sky extra place ... or better and that's it ....just check the results after .....I love simplicity lol ? 
And I do like stout ...?

Lol ...tbh I'm always learning and trying to make the bets straight forward and clear and now they are  ....I wanted to get the ratings consistent enough to be able to blindly trust the top 3 or 4 ....and computerised they are there now ......and time and time again they win or place so backing ew you'll always get a good run for your money with lots of returns and even if the ew returns are small ....I get it  ..its good for morale and sometimes you need that backing horses 
So all I gotta do now is back them ew with sky extra place ... or better and that's it ....just check the results after .....I love simplicity lol ? 
And I do like stout ...?

Half a stout in the snug for you now my friend. ?? Pssst stick with your FC & TC to small stakes as well.

Actually ....I think your right to be fair ....I always keep an open mind and I know my fellow punter made more money than me today so let's,see what happened....
240 
Win   7/1 
4th  16/1 
5th  8/1 
All bets returned with sky bet 
3.00 
2nd 14/1 
7th 20/1 
Both bets returned with sky 
So instead of 1 win yiu get 1,win and 5 place bets .....so ?   ...ew betting gives you much more chance of return but you also need the extra place with sky or other because it really makes a diff .......that happens a lot where 2 or 3 will place top 5 or 6 ...so that really does seem the better strategy.... back ew with sky or most places you can get 
Today 5pt ew lets say for arguments,sake 1/4 odds ....woukd have returned approx 140 -60=  +80.00 .....can't argue with that !! 
Ew bets it is from now on 

Actually ....I think your right to be fair ....I always keep an open mind and I know my fellow punter made more money than me today so let's,see what happened....
240 
Win   7/1 
4th  16/1 
5th  8/1 
All bets returned with sky bet 
3.00 
2nd 14/1 
7th 20/1 
Both bets returned with sky 
So instead of 1 win yiu get 1,win and 5 place bets .....so ?   ...ew betting gives you much more chance of return but you also need the extra place with sky or other because it really makes a diff .......that happens a lot where 2 or 3 will place top 5 or 6 ...so that really does seem the better strategy.... back ew with sky or most places you can get 
Today 5pt ew lets say for arguments,sake 1/4 odds ....woukd have returned approx 140 -60=  +80.00 .....can't argue with that !! 
Ew bets it is from now on 

Can't argue with an ew bet ....the chances of 1 or 2 of my top rated placing is very probable and one of the other members follows my tips rigidly with ew bets on top 3 4 or even 5 sometimes depending on places and they got more back than me today ??....I mean its the stewards cup next Sat I think .. probably 28 30 runners so in that case an ew bet seems sensible ......the bet today was geared towards Gale force maya being the only winner the overall bet woukd make a profit and that's exactly how it played out so sometimes I'm looking at the big picture to make even a small profit if x y z win etc ....but like I said ...someone backs them ew all the time and has loads of returns so there's no wrong answer but ....sometimes I get huge wins and they get half  . ....that's the only diff ....and I like big wins lol

Actually ....I think your right to be fair ....I always keep an open mind and I know my fellow punter made more money than me today so let's,see what happened....
240 
Win   7/1 
4th  16/1 
5th  8/1 
All bets returned with sky bet 
3.00 
2nd 14/1 
7th 20/1 
Both bets returned with sky 
So instead of 1 win yiu get 1,win and 5 place bets .....so ?   ...ew betting gives you much more chance of return but you also need the extra place with sky or other because it really makes a diff .......that happens a lot where 2 or 3 will place top 5 or 6 ...so that really does seem the better strategy.... back ew with sky or most places you can get 
Today 5pt ew lets say for arguments,sake 1/4 odds ....woukd have returned approx 140 -60=  +80.00 .....can't argue with that !! 
Ew bets it is from now on