richard-westwood

Got a real quandary about the Balmoral Handicap which closes the card  .  On the Ascot web site it says under extreme very soft/heavy conditions high numbers are favoured , but it has been several years since this bias can be confirmed as conditions haven`t been that bad .On top of that last years race under softish conditions the whole field went (for some unknown reason) over towards the low drawn side of the course .All the hold up horses were then squashed up on the rail and coudn`t get a run leaving the prominent racers in pole position .Would love some of the jockeys to stay down the high draw side , but believe they will just play follow my leader as usual.........so much so at this moment in time can`t find a bet.....any answers out there ?

Ocean Quest                                                        1 50 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew   33/1
Port Lonsdale                                                       3 45 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew   66/1
Ropey Guest                                                         4 25 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew   40/1
St Lawrence                                                          1 50 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew   40/1
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 173.45 pts

@Tedthewolf
It's in the lap of the gods if rain spoils it now ....I've rated the race on soft but if it rains it might go heavy ....rating currently is ...
Al mubhir. 8.8. 14/1 lads 
Sonny Liston. 8.5. 7/1 
Blue for you   8.2 
Coeur dor. 8.2 
Raadaburg. 8.1 
My idea of good outsider is Al mubhir .....but draw could be against him .....best drawn is sonny Liston in 7 with Ryan Moore onboard ...commands respect on that ....but value horse Def Al mubhir and I've had a tenner Ew at 14/1 with lads ...all the others are much shorter (as low as 11) ...for the haggas horse with Marquand aboard ...5 places 
 

Did the business ....around +40.00

Did the business ....around +40.00

830 newc 
I thought notable ran a really good race for the grade lto from what was a relatively poor draw so in my eyes it upgrades his performance so the 7/1 Ew looks a value bet tonight so I'm drawn to play 
5pt Ew notable 7/1 

Great stuff again Richard with reasoning. Good to see Kraken power running well and as soon as the current jockey gets off he’ll run even better and win. Hopefully Jo Mason. Ran well enough behind a good winner to suggest he’ll be winning soon. Notable too good in this grade.
One of just two winners  for me, book ending the first and last at Newcastle with Cusack getting up comfortably to win race number one.
nutted
rattletheonionbag and cross border had settle for second and third at Dundalk Eglish was nutted in second earlier but pays each way ( I notebook nutted runners as they’ll be improving in due course and as a matter of course, of course)

Did the business ....around +40.00

830 newc 
I thought notable ran a really good race for the grade lto from what was a relatively poor draw so in my eyes it upgrades his performance so the 7/1 Ew looks a value bet tonight so I'm drawn to play 
5pt Ew notable 7/1 

830 newc 
I thought notable ran a really good race for the grade lto from what was a relatively poor draw so in my eyes it upgrades his performance so the 7/1 Ew looks a value bet tonight so I'm drawn to play 
5pt Ew notable 7/1 

Personally i am very anti ew bets i think they are a total rip off. I only ever "contemplate" them on multiples, Lucky 15's etc. or the occasional 33/1+ shots to larger (£40+) stakes.
£2 win at 20/1 horse wins £40 profit.
£1 ew  at 20/1 horse wins £24 profit.
£1 ew  at 20/1 horse plc's £03 profit.
My accounts show that if i did ew singles i would lose money over the year assuming i split my stakes. I would rather do a Reverse forecast with the place stake to be honest.
Now having said that each to their own, people have different ways of betting and it may well suit some people and how they bet but losing out on £17 (£1ew on 20/1 shot) if your horse wins just doesn't sit well with me to be honest.

The key stat is the draw with those drawn 1 - 11 producing 8 winners out of the last 9 with a profit of 81 points. Those drawn higher have 1 winner from 97 runners and a loss of 70 points. I wouldn't be put off by the going as 5 of the last 9 runnings have been on heavy or soft going.
All 9 winners last ran 14 to 25 days ago with a profit of 99 points.
Only 1 winner from 113 runners has had forecast odds higher the 14/1.
This leaves BOPEDRO at 16/1 (5 places).

830 newc 
I thought notable ran a really good race for the grade lto from what was a relatively poor draw so in my eyes it upgrades his performance so the 7/1 Ew looks a value bet tonight so I'm drawn to play 
5pt Ew notable 7/1 

My general rule is back Ew if 1/5 th odds 11/2 or win below ....that way you make a profit overall even if the horse only place ....at 5/1 you break even so that's not a bad bet .....below 5/1 you start losing money overall if the horse places so I'd rather invest in the win but sometimes the safety factor is nice ...it's personal choice 

@Tedthewolf
It's in the lap of the gods if rain spoils it now ....I've rated the race on soft but if it rains it might go heavy ....rating currently is ...
Al mubhir. 8.8. 14/1 lads 
Sonny Liston. 8.5. 7/1 
Blue for you   8.2 
Coeur dor. 8.2 
Raadaburg. 8.1 
My idea of good outsider is Al mubhir .....but draw could be against him .....best drawn is sonny Liston in 7 with Ryan Moore onboard ...commands respect on that ....but value horse Def Al mubhir and I've had a tenner Ew at 14/1 with lads ...all the others are much shorter (as low as 11) ...for the haggas horse with Marquand aboard ...5 places 
 

@Tedthewolf
It's in the lap of the gods if rain spoils it now ....I've rated the race on soft but if it rains it might go heavy ....rating currently is ...
Al mubhir. 8.8. 14/1 lads 
Sonny Liston. 8.5. 7/1 
Blue for you   8.2 
Coeur dor. 8.2 
Raadaburg. 8.1 
My idea of good outsider is Al mubhir .....but draw could be against him .....best drawn is sonny Liston in 7 with Ryan Moore onboard ...commands respect on that ....but value horse Def Al mubhir and I've had a tenner Ew at 14/1 with lads ...all the others are much shorter (as low as 11) ...for the haggas horse with Marquand aboard ...5 places 
 

My general rule is back Ew if 1/5 th odds 11/2 or win below ....that way you make a profit overall even if the horse only place ....at 5/1 you break even so that's not a bad bet .....below 5/1 you start losing money overall if the horse places so I'd rather invest in the win but sometimes the safety factor is nice ...it's personal choice 

My general rule is back Ew if 1/5 th odds 11/2 or win below ....that way you make a profit overall even if the horse only place ....at 5/1 you break even so that's not a bad bet .....below 5/1 you start losing money overall if the horse places so I'd rather invest in the win but sometimes the safety factor is nice ...it's personal choice 

final race at keeneland 2215
joke master
each way
Charm of the song
Win
both have free energy to claim here from  their respective stalls, both are drawn low and expected to figure in the closing stages if the others go off too fast.
 
round  up….   
Another six winners  landed but very hard work (and some  really valid points made on the each way thread) another two weeks left to land three tricasts.  I’m on track to do that and hopefully will have a crack at one soon.!
late on the scene and concentrating on horses getting free energy as I said I would and first up two runners highlighted as likely to run well because of it and  1. HABDRI gets home strongly at a very nice price considering.
Huge odds on Gordon Elliott runner 
2. Brighterdaysahead wins by precisely 10.0 lengths to return a massive   6/4.
3. STAR OFFICIAL   👮‍♀️ 👮‍♂️ won well at thurles 3/1 into 5/2
4. FIFTY YEAR STORM. 11/4
the maiden wins readily in a driving finish and Hollie Doyle was the difference here.
5 BATAL DUBAI
only had to step forward to settle this in a matter of strides and was well clear at the end 
6. Lincoln highway
wins stateside at keeneland
(at the post) 
Each way runners
Alghazaal  placed each way 40s into 33/1
nutted!!!  The runners up
katar
no chance with the winner but squeezed up for an out and had to “sit and suffer “ denied clear run more than once.
BUXTED REEL
( never closer second)
Mary of Modena
(not far behind fifty year storm)
A 369 tricast and indicators were very strong for the top two and really outght to have been a reverse forecast and tricast attempt.
 
 
 

@Tedthewolf
It's in the lap of the gods if rain spoils it now ....I've rated the race on soft but if it rains it might go heavy ....rating currently is ...
Al mubhir. 8.8. 14/1 lads 
Sonny Liston. 8.5. 7/1 
Blue for you   8.2 
Coeur dor. 8.2 
Raadaburg. 8.1 
My idea of good outsider is Al mubhir .....but draw could be against him .....best drawn is sonny Liston in 7 with Ryan Moore onboard ...commands respect on that ....but value horse Def Al mubhir and I've had a tenner Ew at 14/1 with lads ...all the others are much shorter (as low as 11) ...for the haggas horse with Marquand aboard ...5 places 
 

1st and 3rd 

1st and 3rd 

2nd to a 22/1 ..jeez....8pts profit on night 

2nd to a 22/1 ..jeez....8pts profit on night 

Chelmsford 7pm
Batal Dubai.  
Cuban breeze.  
both win
both hard to oppose
but the draw data horse is
innana
each way