Reputation from richard-westwood - Page 85

richard-westwood reacted to Zilzalian in Melbourne Cup November 6, 2023

I quite like Ashrun ew at the price, watched it and backed it a few times when trained by Wohler in Europe. Alenquer bit of a mystery thought it would do well in Aus so will have a saver just to stop me being annoyed with myself if it wins or places.

richard-westwood reacted to Nigwilliam in Melbourne Cup November 6, 2023

2ew's for me
Soulcombe 17/2 , Breakup 16/1.
skybet 6 places.

richard-westwood reacted to Darran in Melbourne Cup November 6, 2023

Having put up the winner of The Everest, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate in recent weeks I am hoping I can make it 4/4 in the biggest race of them all, the Melbourne Cup. Here is my look through the 23 runners which make up this year's field. Gold Trip - History isn't on his side he is aiming to be the first repeat winner since Makybe Diva and the first to carry 58.5kg since Think Big in 1975, but last year's winner is absolutely flying this prep and arguably is in even better form. The Turnbull win 3 back was top class, he didn't get much luck in running when 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and it was a similar story in the Cox Plate when 5th last time. People say he needs cut, but he has proven this prep he can more than handle a quick track so the ground doesn't worry me. Mark Zahra has picked Without A Fight over him, but James McDonald is pretty much the best super sub you can hope for. The one minus for me is his draw in 2. Last year he settled in 18th and flew home from a wider draw, but this year he is going to need luck in running from his inside gate. For me though that is the only negative and if he holds the form he's shown already this prep he has to be in the top 4. Alenquer - A former Royal Ascot winner and a Group 1 winner in Ireland, but he's been unplaced in 5 Aussie starts now and in what will be Damian Oliver's last Cup, he is going to have to pull off something special to win another one on the 6yo. Needs to pass a vet check on the morning of the race. Without A Fight - Given a very European style campaign with just 1 prep run leading into the Caulfield Cup, but it worked a treat as he came pretty much widest of all round the home bend to storm home and be really tough in a battling finish with his former stablemate West Wind Blows. He was just 13th in this last year, but the ground was too wet for him and we know he comes into this in peak form. Connections will probably be happy enough he is drawn in 16 as he should be able to settle in the latter half of the field and get clear air in the straight. The double hasn't been done in 22 years, but he has to have a strong chance. Breakup - Japanese horse whose best recent runs have come over 3000m and 3200m in Japan earlier in the year. Hadn't run since June going into the Caulfield Cup which was always likely to be too short a trip for him and he basically stayed in around 8th place the whole way. To me he ran like a horse who needed the run and he really ought to improve on that run especially up in trip. He also didn't get a lot of room twice in the straight and without that I think he would have finished closer. Wouldn't discount him at double figure odds. Vauban - Plenty of people think you may as well give him the Cup now as they are so certain of him winning. Willie Mullins has gone close to winning this race before and it seems this has been plan long in the making possibly before he even won the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Bolted up at Royal Ascot beating Absurde by 7.5L and then won at Naas to qualify for this. I have said on Twitter that if he drew poorly then that wouldn't help and was joking about 24, but inside draws can be just as tricky although Ryan Moore can work wonders as he showed an Auguste Rodin on Saturday. He gets 7lbs from Gold Trip although I wouldn't be certain that would be enough. What I will say though is his owner thinks he could be a Cups horse next year over here and if he is then he ought to win this. The price has been too short in recent days, but he is just starting to drift out and he is a tempting bet again. Soulcombe - Was really impressive when winning the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of this carnival a year ago, but has only won once this year which came in a Listed Race at Caulfield over 1700m. He was a super 3rd in the Turnbull and does get a 3kg pull in the weights with Gold Trip for a 2.15L defeat that day. The worry is he can blow the start and he lost about 6L at the start in the Caulfield Cup. I thought he did very well though to come home 7th given that. The further trip and longer home straight here will help him if he does blow the start, but his draw of 4 isn't going to be a great help in that regards. Even so he has to be one of the leading candidates. Absurde - The Ebor winner under a great Frankie Dettori ride and whilst no horse has done the double it is usually a good form guide for this race. He was 2nd to Vauban at Royal Ascot, but he was really keen in the early stages and was held up of a fairly slow pace which the winner was able to dictate, so he certainly wasn't see to best effect that day. The yard clearly think Vauban is their main chance, but he is certainly one of the possible winners. Right You Are - Won the Mornington Cup in April and was a really strong 5th in the Caulfield Cup last time especially given he settled in around 5th just off a very strong pace. That was a personal best for me and came on the back of only finishing 11th in the Turnbull. He's never been further than 2400m and you wouldn't really say he's going to improve for it. Vow And Declare - The 2019 winner who has then finished 18th in 2020 and 10th last year. Despite that he still has more weight than he did when he won the race, but to be fair to him he comes into this in good form with a 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last time. Could improve on the 10th of last year, but surely isn't going to repeat 2019's success. Ashrun - Was 10th in the 2020 running and then didn't run again until September due to a tendon injury. Was OK in his first 2 runs back and then finished a good 2nd in the Geelong Cup. Every chance he will come on for that again, but that form isn't good enough to be winning this. Daqiansweet Junior - Stays well and won the Adelaide Cup and has been 3rd in a Sydney Cup, but has been unplaced in 9 starts since then and shouldn't be good enough. Okita Soushi - Another winner from this years Royal Ascot winning the Duke Of Edinburgh. Had a break after that and finished 3rd in the Irish St Leger Trial. He then came over to Australia and finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup. He will have to improve massively on that. Sheraz - Only managed 1 placing in 12 Australian starts which came in the Sydney Cup last year. Stays, but highly unlikely to be good enough. Lastotchka - Having her first start in Australia after winning the Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp a couple of months ago. I'm not sure that was a strong race and she might prefer a softer surface. A draw of 21 isn't ideal either. Magical Lagoon - Won the Irish Oaks last year, but has been pretty awful since going to Australia. 6th in the Geelong Cup was an improvement, but needs a hell of a lot more. Military Mission - Landed the Herbert Power at Caulfield last time although the last horse to win that and the Cup was Rogan Josh in 1999. Was a good effort though and he has also won the Newcastle Cup this prep. Has never been further than 2406m though and that might be an issue, but he has better claims than quite a few of these. Serpentine - The 2020 Derby winner, but he's only won once in Australia and that was a 4 horse race. Only beat 2 home in this last year, but he's actually been running the best he has in Australia this prep and was 3rd to Future History in the Bart Cummings last time. Even so he would be a surprise winner. Virtuous Circle - 2nd in the ATC Derby at Randwick in April, but has struggled for form since and was only 8th in the Geelong Cup last time. More Felons - People in the UK will know him as Scriptwriter as he has had a name change since going to Australia. Started off with Aiden O'Brien and then went hurdling for Milton Harris last jumps season and did well winning a Grade 2 at the November meeting at Cheltenham. He ended up finishing 5th in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National meeting. He then went back to the level and finished 7th behind Vauban at Royal Ascot and 8th in the Ebor behind Absurde. What he does get here though is a massive turn around in the weights which in theory gives him half a chance of reversing the form. Loomed large in the Geelong Cup on his first start for Waller and ended up 5th in a blanket finish. One of those at a bigger price who does have a chance, but he has drawn in 24 and that will be no help. Future History - Great to see Hollie Doyle pick up a ride and this ex-French horse has progressed well since going to Australia. Won the G3 Bart Cummings in good style when making all before a change of tactics last time in the Moonee Valley Cup where he was held up from a bad draw and stayed on well to finish 3rd. I'm guessing they will try and lead with him again here from 13 and given we don't know if he stays that might be tough. I can see him running well though. Interpretation - Had been behind Future History twice this prep including when just 9th in the Bart Cummings. Won a head bob in the Bendigo Cup last week, but that doesn't look good enough form for this. Kalapour - Running solidly this prep and won the Archer Stakes on Saturday to get into the race. Made all then when able to dictate the speed and dug deep to hold on. I can't see him being good enough True Marvel - Has won over 3800m so we know he stays and was placed in the Sydney Cup and Brisbane Cups last season, but unlikely to be good enough. Verdict - For me there are 7 horses who can win this year's Melbourne Cup and in racecard order they are Gold Trip, Without A Fight, Breakup, Vauban, Soulcombe, Absurde and More Felons. I'm going to have small e/w bets on More Felons and Breakup. More Felons could be well handicapped and I like the fact he's had a run in Australia going into this, although the draw is a negative. I thought Breakup's run at Caulfield was better than it first seemed and given the scope for improvement I want him onside as well. With bookies going 5 places and a couple going 6 I think that offers great value in backing Soulcombe and Gold Trip. Both have drifted out, but I think both have great chances of finishing in the top 6. Soulcombe might blow the start again, but the long Flemington straight will give him ample chance to get involved in the finish and Gold Trip is going so well I just can't see how he doesn't finish in the top 5. At the prices I will leave Absurde and Without A Fight alone. I'm a little surprised that Absurde is as strong in the market as he is because I get the feeling the Mullins camp all fancy the favourite. Having said that if he got the 1-2 I wouldn't be shocked. Without A Fight was my main tip for this last year, but he disappointed on the soft ground. Clearly the Caulfield Cup win was huge and that was a new PB, but his price is tight enough now. Finally after much thought I am going to back Vauban as well as a cover bet. On the Australian Bet365 prices he is now over 3/1 and given I would have him around 3/1 I have to bet him at that price, but I would not take anything under 3/1. NB Bet365 have two sets of prices an Australian book and a UK book. The Australian one only offers 3 places as that is the normal e/w terms over there and can be found in the Australian horse racing section on the site. Because it is only 3 places the prices are bigger (thus why Vauban is a bigger prices there). If you want the UK one you have to go to the ante-post section and go to where it says Australia & New Zealand NRNB and the 5 place market is there. Strong bets Gold Trip e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 6/1 with William Hill to 6 places Soulcombe e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 8/1 with William Hill to 6 places Cover bet Vauban @ 17/5 with Bet365 in their Australian market Small e/w plays Breakup @ 18/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 16/1 with William Hill to 6 places More Felons @ 33/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 22/1 with William Hill to 6 places

richard-westwood reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing chat-sunday 5th November November 5, 2023

1.15 Curr 1pt e/w SIRJACK THOMAS 14/1 Bog 5places. Now Back on last winning mark should give good account in this although last win was over a mile 7f should be fine in the soft conditions.. Good to see it in @richard-westwood top 3. Would have liked a bigger price but hopefully will drift a bit. Drifted to 25's 5th 6pts Returned
3.15 Cork 1pt e/w EVERGLOW 22/1 Bog 4places 6th & 1pt e/w HISTORY OF FASHION 25/1 PU. These 2 horses have drifted like a barge from 12 to 22/1 and 34 on Betfair and 16/1 to 25/1 and 36 on BF to be honest i do not have a clue why. I think both are very decent each way chances. Both fairly decent form both will enjoy the trip and ground. I would much rather back these 2 than 10/1 shot Sir Bob who was ahead of them ( Everglow was hampered and fell 3 out when going very well) over 3m7f at Punchestowm in April
6pts invested

richard-westwood got a reaction from Bedlam in Racing chat-sunday 5th November November 5, 2023

115 curr
All lies ahead 8.0 12/1
Loingseoir. 7.8 25/1
Sir Jack Thomas 7.4
5pt Ew top 2

richard-westwood reacted to MCLARKE in Racing chat-saturday 4th November November 4, 2023

Victtorino won at 30.02 and Park Annonciade won at 4.55 for a profit on the day of 23 points
Total 6 from 32, LSP 18.22

richard-westwood reacted to black rabbit in Racing chat-sunday 5th November November 4, 2023

Pedrito 2 50 Duvl/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1

richard-westwood reacted to Antonio Margarettii in Racing chat-sunday 5th November November 4, 2023

1:15 curragh - conversant 16/1
2:25 curragh - saltonstall 10/1
4:10 curragh - cornmarket 200/1 ew
good luck fellas

richard-westwood got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing chat-sunday 5th November November 4, 2023

115 curr
All lies ahead 8.0 12/1
Loingseoir. 7.8 25/1
Sir Jack Thomas 7.4
5pt Ew top 2

richard-westwood got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing chat-saturday 4th November November 4, 2023