richard-westwood

Castebridge wins nicely ...rollover landed 120 pts returned

43 pt carry over from today so may as well try a rollover 
Newc 815
Casterbridge    98.93
Astrophysics   98.91
Kodicat 98.90 
Looks close at the top here and many fancy kodicat tomorrow but im going to take him on with the top 2 who are coming to peak form now ....casterbridge ran a cracker lastbtime against an improving type so lost nothing in defeat .....Astrophysics has been running well on turf but is actually a better horse on all weather so will be interesting to see if the return reflects in his performance .....just hope kodicat doesn't win ...
Casterbridge 20pts win 5/1pp
Astrophysics 20pts win 15/2 pp

Don't worry Richard, just noticed a shrewdie in the Naps comp is on Casterbridge, thats me stuffed

Gulliver wins can try a double attempt tomorrow now for a shot at a decent win 

Thats weird Richard, out of all those races tomorrow i've picked the 8.15 at Newcastle too! Good luck
 
815 Newcastle
Kodicat 3/1 PP
Has been running consistently well for a while now, she won back in April off a mark of 65 and has been in the first four in each of her last 5 races, including at least a couple in much better company than this. The trainer tries cheek pieces here for the first time and I like that angle with these horses that just need to find something extra close home. Anyway she represents good value to me at around 3/1.

Gulliver wins can try a double attempt tomorrow now for a shot at a decent win 

Right time to knuckle down and try for leg 1 of a double attempt .,,,today's race the 150 ling
Easy tiger   98.93
Gulliver 98.92
Barracuda boy  98.88
Barracuda boy looks pretty good ew value here at 25/1 but hes a little bit behind the top two so only ew appeal as he still looks exposed .....top two are both improvers who are fairly evenly matched on paper so they make a strong tag team today to take this classy looking race 
Easy tiger 10pts win 7/1 stanj
Gulliver 10pts win 100/30 stanj

Heartache as Serveontime is mugged on the line, but still a good 2nd

Can't let the day pass without giving my condolences to Mary Reveleys passing, amazing women and superb horse trainer. RIP great lady.

9/2 not bad ...not bad at all.......

I'll be on the a/w myself over the winter and I looked at today's racing at Wolves but the poor quality of todays races puts me off.
I tend to avoid 0-60's unless I can find one that stands out - which I can't today - Good luck

330 newm 
Song maker  98.91
Bint dandy  98.90
Tau hang Dragon 98.87
Clearly     98.87
Interesting and classy race for a midweek ....lots in with chances ...fav clearly is wrll fancied today and could be an improver but what he's shown so far doesn't warrant backing at 11/4 ...no value at all ....Tau hang Dragon looks interesting with Ryan moore taking the ride but needs to improve a bit .....could be ew value .....Song maker represents godolphin and has improved with every run so far so hopefully the improvement can continue ...big question is can he translate recent good all weather form to here today ....same question applies to Bint dandy who is a capable horse on a good day ....can he translate his form to turf today if so the 33/1 would look huge today ...with rare betting o ppurtunitys at the mo I'm playing today 
Song maker 5pts win 9/2 bet365
 bint dandy 3pts ew 33/1 lads

Bit of dutching here. 10 points win Aljezeera 2/1 unibet,and 8points win wingingit 7/2 betvictor, 3:10 Yarmouth.which will produce winnings of +12 points if Aljezeera wins and +18points if wingingit wins.

Byron flyer 7th so get paid ew !! ....72 pts returned ....can't complain at that

b00m  

Zabeel Prince destroys them ...group horse in the making one to watch ...Home Cummins 3rd

Limato destroys his field ....big guns out today 

Zabeel Prince destroys them ...group horse in the making one to watch ...Home Cummins 3rd

My Ratings
Time To Study EW 14/1 Hills
Watersmeet EW 40/1 Betfred

Zabeel Prince destroys them ...group horse in the making one to watch ...Home Cummins 3rd

Limato destroys his field ....big guns out today 

It is a very very tough race to tackle so any way to narrow it down has to be a good thing.....I like to think of mine as a police line up ..and then you have to choose the most "likely" suspect ...that's really how I work race to race ...and its not always right but hopefully if I stick to the high priced ones they cancel out the stinkers and generally they do so it seems to work ......sometimes horses just don't turn up ..I look at results sometimes and finished 22 of 24 ?? And I'm like what ?? ....but I've realised that's just racing and not to take it personally anymore just put a line thru it and move on ....but its just a guide ..how else can u tackle a 34 runner hcap??

It is the norm tbh.....I probably should change it but I'm convinced I'd mess something up as its very finely balanced .....in the above set I'd equate that to roughly 4 lengths between who dares wins and Byron flyer but it really is purely a guide .....lets say the last 12 winners of this race were 4yrs or less and London prize was the only one that fitted ....I might give him the benefit of the doubt as he holds form cards and profile cards .....the rating includes hcapped ..speed ...recent form ...and dist form so gives you the complete horses hand ......after that its about value and playing percentages .......it may be that the last 5 winners of a race were all rated 100+ and if only one horse in my top 5 qualify and he's 10/1 I'll play it no qualms at all ...,,so yes its strictly a guide for me 
In the above case I've reversed engineered...I've got strong trends for the race to break it down ....then rate those rather than the whole field ....it works well as long as you only use very strong trends .... only used the 4-5 rated 13/15 or more so roughly 85% probability the winner will fall on the shortlist of 10 .....after that its opinion 
Even if I can place with 34 runners I think that would be a fab result and I'd be well happy 
Equally you could argue that because quite a few winners were 50/1 then the bottom five were of interest and I couldn't criticise anyone thinking that but class ratings  and my instincts tell me its the top half I want to be in 
Interesting fact ....11/14 winners were 9st-1 or less that's Byron flyer downwards.....or Byron flyer alone in top half!!

Catterick 10 Oct 17
Ventura Knight 5* 7 10/3 early, LTO 24 days, dropped 3 lbs, dropped 1 grade, D, 3rd in class 2 LTO
Poet's Dawn 5* 10,  3/1 early LTO 10, dropped 7 lbs, up 1 grade, in form but hcap mark?
El Chapo 5* 8,11/4 early. 17, dropped 8lbs, up 1 grade, beat Poet's dawn C&D 17 days ago.
Comment: Perhaps a race to watch as it looks quite tight.

Kudos @Jackform
Some nice winners there.
Usually stay away from VDW threads as they are mainly full of aftertimers blowing their own trumpets weeks / months & even years after the race has been run.
Fair play for putting them up pre race.  ( You know you'll be getting kicked out of the VDW club   )
Atb with your selections