richard-westwood

Fab...feels like your there ....

First one was a let down but kimbrella does the business ....around 105pts returned ...nice when a plan comes together 

Slightly different tact on this one ...we are all aware of the draw bias at Chester so as this is 5f I'll rate just the bottom 6 draws as there's around an 83% probability the winner will come from one of those draws ......the ratings come out as follows 345 chester
Stall 
1  99.12
2 99.16
3 99.25
4 99.02
5 99.06
6 99.19
Looks as though this is between kimbrella and Avon breeze and as the statistics favour and improve the closer to the rail you get then it's obvious the horse I want to be on is Nicholls ..kimbrella ...he was behind the fav last time but I think that was a warm up and he's much better than that and I'd be hopeful he can turn that form around with perfect conditions.....bookies aren't taking any chances only offering best price 7/1 at the mo ...I had thought he would be bigger but still a good bet so lets see what happens ..
Kimbrella 10pts ew 7/1 will hill 
 

Exactly the same ....let's hope he does himself justice now!

We must be reading from the same page;
I did this earlier;
 
Full Preview
 
 

How unlucky is that!,,,,......2nd and 3rd ....gutted in a way but fab ew returns probably around 70 pts but oh so near 

To be honest I don't normally take a lot of notice of the Punchestown Festival........it comes after Cheltenham and Aintree and seems like a bit of an afterthought
But I still haven't got that interested in the Flat this year yet so think I'll watch it this year........well make sure I catch the Grade One races
There's some cracking races !

Some massive moves for the Lyons horses today with Psychedelic Funk and Elusive Heights winning at 7/2. Couldn't have gone much better today!

Gone for a few favourites tomorrow but am liking Seeyouatmidnight and Stenrubin. Hope my heart is not ruling my head.
 
https://racingahoy.wordpress.com/2016/04/15/the-only-way-is-essex/

Well pleased with that ...yesterday only 4 qualified and accesion joint 3rd rated won 25/1 ......today 14/1 3rd from 2 picks ....and 20/1 3rd from one pick ....definately no fluke about that !!!!...very pleased ....dont forget its just been designed to pick horses that are mispriced so its obviously working perfectly 

Well pleased with that ...yesterday only 4 qualified and accesion joint 3rd rated won 25/1 ......today 14/1 3rd from 2 picks ....and 20/1 3rd from one pick ....definately no fluke about that !!!!...very pleased ....dont forget its just been designed to pick horses that are mispriced so its obviously working perfectly 

Well done mate. You seem to have found a winning formula there.

Captain brown 18/1 3rd with only a length separating first three home .... Very happy with that and will get the 18/1 ew price too...uriah heep was about 5th  

Just continue in value testing .....
235 Ayr results 
Captain Brown  +5 good 14/1
uriah heep +6 good 25/1 
Clan legend  +2 FAIR 5/1
Clan legend is well fancied and in sparkling form but effectively has been raised 14 lbs so life will be tougher ...,,I'll try ew bets on other two ...minimum stakes 
Captain Brown1pt ew 14/1 bet365
uriah heep 1 pt we 25/1 bet365
 
 

515 Ayr value results 
Victor Hugo  +5 good 20/1
Quel elite +3 FAIR 
Victor Hugo 1pt ew 20/1 bet365

Aberrant prices only just coming online 
Magical memory  99.17
Mobsta    98.99 
 
Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too ....
Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly)
*** 7/2 with bet365 taken 

Very interesting concept. As for DD, just sounds like he had a bad start. Good luck with this system.

Aberrant prices only just coming online 
Magical memory  99.17
Mobsta    98.99 
 
Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too ....
Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly)
*** 7/2 with bet365 taken 

Even though that didn't look brill I actually learned a lot from that ...,on my hcap system accession was rated 2nd ......still it spotted the value and only those 4 qualified so onto the next race !!

In further relation to restricted accounts it appears its a huge problem and a survey has been issued. With regards to giving it to the bha finally ...so if youve been burned take part 
http://ukhbf.org/account-restrictionclosure-survey/

phew...........
I might look to this strategy a bit more often where you have two 'obvious' ones that are both odds against
 

I just noticed only a couple of bookies were pricing him up for this .....so weights might go up ?? Dont think it will effect ratings much on top two maybe wven make them stronger now ...just depends who sneaks in at bottom ...ill keep an eye on it as bottom weights can do well in lincoln .....this is always a hard race and theres a lit of well backed ante post coups present but may as well have a play ...only 22 runners ...gulp ....

Top 22 runners ......rated 
Express himself    99.16
Storm rock     99.14
Buckstay     99.09
 
Well my initial fancy didn't get in ....thankfully I didn't back him ....express himself has kind of slippedunder the radar here with focus on the ante post fancies .....the form of his last race looks solid ....he totally missed the break and ordinarily that would have been it but he got back into the race ...weaved through and got there before the line with front two 3 and half lengths clear of field ......has been penalised 8 lbs but deservedly so and if he can improve a little then could be very dangerous ...similarly storm rocks last run was a bit lacklustre but possibly didn't appreciate the all weather and his previous run against your fired is more his level of form and that has a solid look to it too ......at the moment there are patches of 20/1 about each but I'll wait as late as poss to place the bet ......got a 100 pt carry over from last week ....I'll recoup the 40 I lost Monday and with the rest try two 30 pt wins top two for shot at the jackpot again .......
 

My ratings for this race 
Black spot on   98.86
Angus  98.84
Just cause   98.79 
I think the top two look really good value ...Angus is 11/1 best now and I think just cause could be dangerous too at 20/1 although he may be a bit novice for this so ew top two looks the best bet ...good luck 
3pts ew Angus 11/1 sj   3pts ew black spot on 33/1 bet365

3.00 Cork - Shanghai Beauty @ 7/1 Betfair
Very interesting opener at Cork with 2014 Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint winner Bobby's Kitten lining up for Weld in a Listed race. Can't see any betting angles though with questions about the ground for him and who knows how much ability Gordon Lord Byron retains. The favourites look solid in the 2.25 so my only bet on the card is Shanghai Beauty. Backed this one last week at the Curragh and was a bit disappointing after being so well supported in the build up. She traveled well enough though and maybe found the 6f at the Curragh a bit stiff as her best form is over 5f and at an easy 6f at Cork. She's been dropped a further 2lbs and will love the ground so I'll give her another chance on the flat 5f course at Cork.
3.30 Fairyhouse - Aengus e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 & Black Spot On e/w @ 33/1 Bet365
Aengus had back problems at the end of last season and although Meade said they sorted it his poor form continued into this year. He was good the last day though in a competitive looking race so maybe he's finally over the problems and can progress especially now back up in trip. Have to say I'm surprised Black Spot On has been dropped to 119 after a string of solid efforts over hurdles which culminated in an 8L defeat by Dedigout in a Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse festival last year. He hasn't been seen over hurdles since and has flopped over fences but that's not a big surprise as a flat bred and after his run on this card last year I'm sure this has been the target for a while.