Saturday Racing - (Inc. Scottish National)

[BillyHills]

4.10 Ayr: Scottish Grand National

Verdict:

A wide-open affair as you would expect and a better quality race than we are used to it seems. The Irish will never have a better chance to break their horrendous losing sequence here and the Mullins horse Measureofmydreams looks the main one to concentrate on. Seeyouatmidnight should lead for a long way for the home side but my idea of a winner is Royale Knight who missed the boat last week at Aintree. Top Wood and Vyta Du Roc are others on my shortlist in a cracking renewal.

Selection:  Royale Knight EW @ 16/1 Bet365

 

Preview 

 

[richard-westwood]

Scottish national 

Folsom blue    99.16

Shotgun paddy   99.13 

Cause of causes  99.11

Very open race .....Cause of causes should run well ....but in a race as open as this you want nice prices so top two fit the bill perfectly at 25/1 each ....both have been running well at distances ...,shotgun paddy ran a stinker last time so not ideal prep but undoubtedly well treated at present ifvhe can bounce back as previously he had looked a horse coming into form ..,,,Folsom blue likewise ran well last time ....ifvhe has recovered from that then is capable of a big run .....and mouse Morris has already won one national lets see if lightning can strike twice?

Folsom blue 3 pts ew 25/1 paddyp

Shotgun paddy 3 pts ew 25/1 wh 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Scottish Champion Hurdle

Verdict:

If you follow the trends you will want to be concentrating on those rated over 140 and those that have had a recent run. Of those contenders I like the Hobbs runner Sternrubin. I think he is still improving and he will enjoy this flatter track after the hustle and bustle of the Cheltenham Festival. The Skelton horse Ch’Tibello is interesting but comes back from a long absence while Cloudy Dream could go well at decent odds. Most eyes will be on the Nicholls v Mullins battle and the Irishman looks to have the best chance of adding to his prize money total here.

Selection:  Sternrubin EW @ 9/1 Bet365

 

Preview

 

[richard-westwood]

Scottish champion 

John constable   99.36

Sternrubin     99,32

Ivan grozny   99.27

Overall sternrubin looks the form horse coming into this race .....his form in the county looks very strong form but I'm a bit perplexed with John constable who was just behind sternrubin in Nov....but didntvturn up at chelt .....where sternrubin ran well .....could have been that John constable just wasn't fit after layoff or the chelt fest factor struck .....but he's effectively 14lbs better off with sternrubin for 4 lengths and Even though sternrubin thrashed him at chelt they have sternrubin at 9/1 and John constable best priced 10/1?.....I think that shows the bookies know what he's capable of but will he run his race this time ?....was gonna go ew John but as there's a risk I'll go win on both at value odds 

Sternrubin   4 Pts win 9/1 bet365

John constable 4 pts win 10/1 betvic 

[BillyHills]

Scoop 6 Selections;

Total pot of £2 Million this week

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday 16th April

No player got further than the third leg last week so it means we have yet another rollover in the Tote Scoop6 this week. The Win Fund now starts at a very nice £612,147 and the Bonus is a staggering £1,311,171. In total we will be playing for a possible £2 million jackpot!

The six races are from Ayr, Bangor On Dee and Thirsk with the highlight being the Scottish Grand National at 4.10 (3rd leg).

 

Preview

[Racingahoy]

Gone for a few favourites tomorrow but am liking Seeyouatmidnight and Stenrubin. Hope my heart is not ruling my head.

 

https://racingahoy.wordpress.com/2016/04/15/the-only-way-is-essex/

[BillyHills]

Three For Saturday

5.20 Ayr:  Alcala @ 2/1 Bet365 Nap

2.40 Chelmsford: Katie’s Diamond EW @ 13/2 Boyles

4.30 Bangor:  Mountain Tunes EW @ 9/1 Laddies

 

Previews

[arsenalfh]

At Chelmsford I think Taqdeer could take a bit of beating in the first. He was 2nd in a decent Wolverhampton maiden despite being slowly away and that's the best form on offer. There are some nicely bred horses in here but they'll likely need the run while he'll probably be fit and well for Gosden who's started the season well. As an expensive yearling he should have much more to offer this season and hopefully 2/1 will be available in the morning.

In the 2.10 I was surprised Sandro Botticelli was available at 7/1 given how impressive he was at Doncaster. John Ryan is a very good small trainer and seems to have improved him from the O'Brien yard. Lightly raced he should have more to offer and the two favourites look rather short. Dartmouth needs to step up and will probably need this a bit and Battalion is just a bit of a headcase.

Besharah was quite a precocious 2 year old and connections were worried last season about her training on. She's well worth taking on as I really think her form lines with Lumiere and Illuminate have been overrated. Alice Springs was able to run them pretty close over 6f which would have been sharp for her and she's a notch below the best of the Irish classic hopefuls. Marenko beat a weak field on her return and looks exposed so Katie's Diamond seems like a cracking bet. I thought the Marcel Boussac form looked strong with Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks finishing first and second and the time was also quick. Katie's Diamond ran a stormer to finish 5th that day and was improving all the time as a 2 year old. Should go well for Burke who usually has his string pretty straight this time of year. The Greenham looks weak and the market looks about right so no bet.

Saeed Bin Suroor has a cracking record with first time out 3 year olds and his runner Great Return could take a bit of beating in the 4.25 which doesn't seem to have much depth. He has a Derby entry and might be a good step above the rest of these but has shortened up to 11/8.

1.35 Chelmsford - Taqdeer @ 7/4 Bet365 (Exchange prices point to him drifting)

2.10 Chelmsford - Sandro Botticelli @ 6/1 Betfair

2.40 Chelmsford - Katie's Diamond @ 13/2 Betfair

[beaker1]

1.50 Ayr – The Weatherbys Private Bank Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.

What looked likely to be a cracking contest has disappointed somewhat with the entries cutting up but that could play straight into the hands of VIVALDI COLLONGES. The seven-year-old has taken a while to get his act together but showed at Warwick last time that he may just be starting to get the hang of things. His first season chasing was a bit of a right off, running in a couple small field novice events before being pitched in at the deep end in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. His second season has proven a different proposition altogether, landing a valuable Kelso handicap on his seasonal debut before blowing away his two rivals at Warwick last time out. He can be forgiven for his well beaten fifth in an attritional heavy ground Classic Chase in between and arrives here on only a 1lb higher mark than that day. Carrying top weight won’t be an easy task by any means but he could prove to be a class apart from the rest of the field here.

Subtle Grey has been in good heart this year and can be forgiven his latest effort in the Midlands National. He rarely runs a bad race and had finished in the frame on every start under rules until heading to Uttoxeter last month. However, he has shown a propensity to lose interest on the run-in and although holding on well at Carlisle back in February, the way he idled was a bit of a worry. Most of his best form has been in a real slog so any extra rain would certainly suit him and he looks likely to run into a place.

Advice

VIVALDI COLLONGES – 1pt win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)

 
2.25 Ayr – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 

Even though the market has found him (6/4 favourite), BRISTOL DE MAI is clearly the horse with the most ability in this field – ground conditions and trip look to be absolutely spot on for him and if he can get back to his bold-jumping best from the front, he’ll certainly be a tough nut to crack. His second to Black Hercules in the JLT was an excellent effort considering he had to battle back from a mistake at the third last and being just fourth at the final fence – he had plenty of very useful types in behind that day too.

Harry Fry’s eight-year-old, Henryville is his nearest rival in the market and his defeat of Golden Doyen at Exeter in a novices’ chase looks decent form with Thomas Crapper back in third. He hasn’t been tested at anywhere near this level yet though and it may be that the ground is too soft for him to show his best, so while he’s clearly a promising chaser, there could be other days for him.

Le Mercurey sports first-time blinkers here for Paul Nicholls and if they can sharpen him up, especially in the six-year-old’s resolution department, he could be a sleeper in the race. This is a horse that travels well through his races up to a point and then seems to drop out tamely quite often, so you would think the drop to two and a half miles on softish ground would be good for him. However, the yard seem to think he’s a three miler if he can get his application right, so this could be too sharp a test.

Dan Skelton’s yard has hit some good form recently and he’s represented by Pain Au Chocolat in this. The five-year-old’s defeat of Aso reads pretty well, but on a line through Golden Doyen, who he was 15 lengths behind on chasing debut, he’s got plenty to find with Henryville, let alone Bristol De Mai.
Otago Trail is a bit of an enigma for Venetia Williams, one day looking very good and the next dropping out tamely, as in the Mildmay at Aintree, while Killala Quay is tough and consistent, but has plenty to find with a few at this level.

Advice

BRISTOL DE MAI – 3pts win @ 11/10 (General)

3.00 Ayr – The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)

Undoubtedly, the Willie Mullins pair will prove to be all the rage as they both arrive here in good form. Ivan Grozny carries a 5lb penalty for his win at Aintree last week and is officially 5lb well in after being reassessed by the handicappers. However, although he clearly looks to be back on track, it will be a tough ask to follow up just seven days later and he has pretty much been on the go since the middle of January having had nearly two years off the track. This will be his fifth race in under three months and it may be the case that he had his time last week.

Clondaw Warrior looked to be right back to his best when an easy winner at Fairyhouse at the end of March and although 12lb higher now, must come into serious consideration. He enjoyed his best season on the level last year, landing the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and Guinness Handicap at the Galway Festival and finishing a narrow second in the Doncaster Cup and is a major player here off a career-high mark.

However, a speculative chance is taken on CONNETABLE bouncing back to form. It is no easy task for a four-year-old to come here and take on the older horses but the 5lb age concession he receives will certainly come in handy and he has proven that he can mix it with his elders when landing the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown back in February.  His below-par effort in the Triumph was slightly troubling but he wouldn’t be the first horse not to act on Cheltenham’s undulations and he certainly won’t be the last. The return to a flatter track will surely help and I think he is overpriced for what looks to be a fairly sub-standard renewal.

Advice

CONNETABLE – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (bet365)

 
3.35 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

This next race looks a tight one with just seven runners and one horse who must have a place on the shortlist is Solar Impulse who seemed to benefit from the fitting of blinkers for the first time when winning the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. Whether the aids will work for a second time in quick succession it is hard to know but the six-year-old has always been highly thought of by the yard and it would be no surprise to see him run well again off a 9lb higher mark. His form suggests he would probably prefer the ground a little quicker than it is likely to be on Saturday but he should still be thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

He does carry a lot of weight however and it may be worth looking towards the foot of the weights for an improving performer. One such horse could be Tom George’s ALWAYS ON THE RUN who was only fourth on his chasing debut in December, but has since won twice dropped back to two miles. The latest of those efforts saw him make all in the hands of Paddy Brennan and despite the odd jumping error, he won with a bit up his sleeve at the line. He is clearly on the improve and a 4lb rise shouldn’t be enough to halt his progression. He has won on ground ranging from good to soft so that shouldn’t hold any fears for him and in his current form, he looks the one to beat.

His biggest danger could come from Ultragold who has won his last two starts over two miles, most recently winning going away from his rivals at Newbury. He also acquitted himself well Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in February over 2m4f and looks far from badly handicapped at present. The Tizzard yard are in great form of late and he can’t be safely ruled out in the hands of promising conditional Harry Cobden.

Advice

ALWAYS ON THE RUN – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Sky Bet)

4.10 Ayr – Coral Scottish Grand National (HANDICAP RACE) 

A well-trodden path for horses who exit the Aintree Grand National early on is to head here for some compensation a week later.  In terms of trends, it looks something of a difficult task when you consider that the last horse to complete the double in the same year was Red Rum in 1974. More recently, horses who have run at Aintree and then lined up here have a poor record with no winner of the race in the last decade. However, we don’t have to worry about that here as this year, for the first time in a few years none of the early departees come here bidding for redemption.

One of the stronger trends associated with this race is that nine of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers to date. The extreme distance that the race is run over often tests the concentration levels of horses and therefore a good jumper can often get themselves out of trouble when required. There are seven members of this year’s field whose previous record may cause some concern with Top Wood, Goodtoknow, Golden Chieftain, Pineau De Re, Milborough, Tour Des Champs and Sun Cloud all needing to put in their best rounds to have any chance here.

An equally strong trend is that a first three finish on their most recent start is something that seven of the last ten winners have all had in common. This suggests that horses in form do tend to run well here despite the fact that they may carry a little more weight in this handicap. Just less than half of this year’s field qualify on this score including the likes of Cause of Causes, Masters Hill, Highland Lodge and Berea Boru.

It may seem obvious given the distance of four miles and half a furlong, that horses with proven stamina are often successful. In fact eight of the last ten winners all had a victory over 3m 2f or further to their name prior to running in this race. There are eleven horses in this year’s renewal who fall at this particular hurdle with the likes of Seeyouatmidnight, Vyta Du Roc and Top Wood all arriving with question marks over their stamina and if any race is likely to exploit any such weakness, the Scottish Grand National is that race.

In terms of weight, history tells us that this is not a race in which big weights are carried to victory. Godsmejudge carried 11st 3lb to victory in 2013 but the other nine winners in the last decade, all carried less than 11st. This would suggest that it is best to focus our attention on the horses with lower weights and if we apply that to this year’s field, we can eliminate the top ten as they appear on the racecard, from Cause of Causes down to Top Wood.

A major negative for potential contenders is if a horse is aged seven or younger, as before Godsmejudge landed the race three years ago, you have to go back to Gingembre in 2001 to find the last seven-year-old winner. In the last decade, eight, nine and eleven-year-olds have accounted for eight of the last ten winners so older horses should definitely be followed. There are five seven-year-olds in this year’s field, with Vicente, Vyta Du Roc, Gold Futures, A Good Skin and Straidnahanna hoping to emulate Alan King’s last winner of the race.

A final factor worthy of consideration is the poor record that favourites have in the Scottish Grand National. There have been no winning-favourites in the last decade and only two of the most recent winners went off at single figure SPs. Obviously the market is subject to fluctuations between now and the off but this looks to be a race in which a chance can be taken on a lively outsider so supporters of the joint-favourites Cause Of Causes and Measureofmydreams may be better off looking elsewhere.

 
Shortlist

HIGHLAND LODGE – 7/7

Heathfield – 7/7

Midnight Prayer – 6/7

Alvarado – 6/7

 
Conclusion

We have two horses who on the trends at least appear to have perfect records with slight preference for HIGHLAND LODGE who was last seen winning the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. Connections were disappointed that he didn’t get into the Aintree Grand National this week but must be hopeful that he can run another big race off a 5lb higher mark. He is fairly lightly-raced for a ten-year-old and having run well over four miles in the past, I don’t think the trip will be an issue. He likes to be ridden prominently so we are likely to get a bold sight out in front and it will just be a case of whether anything can get past him.

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Tony Martin’s Heathfield who has mixed hurdles and fences since winning a valuable Punchestown handicap over 3m6f last Spring. He failed to show much form in his first few starts this season but bounced back to win impressively over hurdles a couple of weeks ago. The nine-year-old seems to come into form at this time of year and given the stable from which he resides, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up on Saturday afternoon.
There are a host of contenders who miss just the one trend but one who catches the eye is Alan King’s Midnight Prayer who won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of years ago. He was a close second at Warwick in January before finishing alone at Exeter next time and probably just found the ground too lively at Cheltenham on his latest outing. Having finished seventh, that is the only trend he has to overcome but he otherwise looks to boast a strong profile.

The final member of the shortlist is Alavarado who has finished fourth in two Aintree Grand Nationals and didn’t make the cut for this year’s renewal. He has won over 3m4f at Cheltenham in the past so is no stranger to this sort of stamina test and he gets in here with very little weight on his back. He could only finish eighth on his latest outing but his form suggests that he tends to improve for his first run of the campaign so I am happy to forgive him that effort. He is likely to be staying on when some of the others have cried enough and he could be another lively outsider.

Advice

HIGHLAND LODGE – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

4.45 Ayr – Ayrshire Hospice Land O’ Burns Starlight Walk Handicap Hurdle.

This looks an extremely competitive handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs, so ideally we’re looking for something with plenty of stamina and plenty of juice in their mark.

One such horse that seems to fit the criteria well is Warren Greatrex’s Missed Approach. Despite having the excuse of going up 20lbs for his dominant win at Newbury, he was very disappointing at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final and it was surely too bad to be true as he was struggling before the seventh hurdle. He was very well backed before the race and there’s surely better in the tank from this horse. It could well be his last hurrah over timber as he’s due to go chasing next year, so there’s nothing to lose by going all out here.

Willie Mullins attempts to top up his lead in the British trainers championship by sending over ARBRE DE VIE, a five-length tenth in the Coral Cup at the Festival. That doesn’t tell the whole story though as he was held up way in rear of the contest, before running on strongly at the end. If he’s given a bit more positive ride here by Paul Townend, he could run a big race off the same mark and even though he is carrying top weight 11st 12lb, this race has been won by horses carrying more than 11st 5lb seven times in the last ten years.

Two Taffs has been consistently promising this season for Dan Skelton, finishing placed in four consecutive competitive hurdle races, most lately the EBF Final at Sandown Park, where he was a five length fourth. The way he stayed on at the end there, he looked like he’ll appreciate this extra furlong and the ground should hold no fears. A mark of 129 could well be generous and it’s easy to see why he’s favourite with many bookmakers. However, his lack of wins is a concern and a pattern is emerging from his races: “stayed on well but held.” It could be that he’s one that needs everything to fall just right for him and at his current price; I’d want to take him on.

Brian Ellison has two in the race and judging by jockey bookings, Eshtiaal is the big hope with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride. The six-year-old has flipped between flat racing and going over hurdles with success, but the big worry here is the ground – he’s undoubtedly a good ground horse, so it could be best to focus on his other runner.

Forest Bihan is that horse and the five-year-old has some decent placed form in competitive events. Last time out, his third place in the Greatwood at Newbury was a good effort and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb, the first time he’s relented since he first ran in Britain, coincidentally also at Ayr. Brian Ellison really likes the horse and he could be worth some each-way interest.

Advice

ARBRE DE VIE – 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365)

 
5.20 Ayr – Ortus Homes Racing Excellence “Hands And Heels” Finale Handicap Hurdle.

The ‘hands and heels’ race looks another competitive affair despite the small field and Alcala must appear high on any shortlist having finished a good third in the EBF Final at Sandown last month. He has been highly-tried in his career to date but ran well in that particular contest and doesn’t look to be too unfairly treated on his current mark of 127. Harry Cobden, who rode him at Sandown stays aboard for this engagement and with Paul Nicholls chasing the Trainer’s title, he will be keen to have any winner possible.

James Moffatt’s Amuse Me has been in the form of his life this term winning three times, but hasn’t been seen since winning for the third time in quick succession at Sedgefield at the end of October. He was hit with an 11lb penalty for that latest success but has gone well fresh in the past and can’t be ruled out if returning in the same form as he was when we last saw him.

However, the one to focus on could be Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD who may have made hard work of his success here in February but should appreciate stepping up in trip to 2m4f. The five-year-old won an Irish point this time last year and ran in some competitive races on his first two starts for the yard. Point-to-point rider Jack Andrews gets the leg up on him here and I fancy him to extend his winning sequence upped in trip.

Advice

OLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)

5.50 Ayr – Skyform Group Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.

This is a fairly ordinary-looking bumper on the face of it, but then you scan down the roll of honour and see the name Sprinter Sacre there in 2010 – he even went off at 11/4 – so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that there will be a useful one in here.

A key piece of form here could well be the race that Brian Ellison’s Ballycrystal won at Doncaster in February, where he beat Man O’Words by three lengths off level-weights. Ellison’s horse now carries a 6lb penalty for that win and it’s reasonable to think that Tom Lacey’s charge can reverse the form simply with that, but when you consider it was also Man O’Words’ first visit to the racetrack, the probable improvement could seal the deal. Both of those horses look stayers in the making and will appreciate the better-run contest that they should get here.

There are two other winners in the field, starting with Nicky Richards’ Reivers Lad who won in soft ground at Carlisle in March. The form of that race doesn’t look that strong though, so he could be one to pass over. MERE IRONMONGER is the other winner and Brendan Powell’s four year-old looks a very interesting prospect. He’s by Galileo for a start, a half-brother to Bayan who became a smart hurdler and cost 280,000 guineas as a yearling, so there’s clearly plenty there in his pedigree at the very least. He was given a cracking ride by Harry Skelton on his debut at Kempton to steal the race from the front from a decent-looking field including representatives from the Henderson, King, Nicholls, Fry and Tizzard yards. He gets the four-year-old’s allowance here, so the penalty for his win isn’t such a burden compared to five-year-olds Ballycrystal and Reivers Lad and if he’s improved since that run at Kempton, he has to hold great claims here.

Paul Nicholls has an interesting debutant in the field in the form of Gibbes Bay, who is a son of Al Namix, sire of Saphir Du Rheu and Grandouet amongst others. He gets weight from nearly all his rivals here and if he’s tuned up to go first-time-out, he could be a threat coming from his top yard.

Advice

MERE IRONMONGER – 1pt win @ 3/1(SkyBet)

[arsenalfh]

I usually like taking on horses under penalties but Ivan Grozny in the Scottish Champion Hurdle just looks so well in. However it looks a very competitive race though so I'll just watch. In the 3.35 Always On The Run is only 6, lightly raced and very progressive so I think he should be shorter than 3/1. He might not have beaten much last time but he would have won much more convincingly if not for blundering the last and he's only gone up 4lbs so could be hard to stop.

Few horses I like in the National and my favourite of all has to be Ballyculla. He's lazy as hell so I think the blinkers are a massive plus and Greatrex has always talked this one up so their could be improvement off 136 and he should be suited to the stamina test over this distance. I'll also back Golden Chieftain who would be on a much hire mark if he stayed up on his last two starts. He was well in command last time and the winner was put up 3lbs so off 4lbs higher I still think he's well handicapped. Hopefully with Tom O'Brien taking over he can help him get around. Highland Lodge improved going to Moffatt and may be well handicapped so he has to have a chance while Folsom Blue might thrive over the smaller fences but 20/1 seems about right with drying ground against him. Nicholls seems to think Vicente looked the winner in the 4 miler before being badly hampered and although he was going well at the time he didn't claw back any ground and just has no gears. Could seem him running a solid race but maybe not quite hit the frame.

Although Eshtiaal has the profile of an improver as a 6 year old in good form after a win on the flat I'm not sure what to make of his American form so this might be between Arbre De Vie and Two Taffs. I think the latter has a great chance as nothing went right the last day when he was hampered by a weakening horse. That race couldn't have worked out better with 4 subsequent winners and the 2nd placed in a Grade 1 at Aintree so he looks nicely handicapped and should still have plenty of improvement as a lightly raced type.

3.35 Ayr - Always On The Run @ 3/1 Bet365

4.10 Ayr - Ballyculla e/w @ 28/1 Bet365 & Golden Chieftain e/w @ 16/1 Bet365

4.45 Ayr - Two Taffs @ 7/2 Skybet