richard-westwood

Watchya                                                              3 25 Asc/       1/40th of a pt ew  12/1
Sempo                                                                 3 40 Pun       1/40th of a pt ew  44/1
Conflated                                                            5 25 Pun       1/40th of a pt ew  40/1
Roedora                                                              6 35 Pun       1/40th of a pt ew  38/1
Rossario                                                              2 50 Asc        1/40th of a pt ew  18/1

For completeness I've manually calculated the ratings for the 2 horses that have only run in Ireland or France

Cajetan is 2/1 so the bookies really fancy him .....but I'm looking for value on a quiet day so I'd rather back a 18/1 than a 2/1 .....want want could finish 8th because they know something with the drift or he could storm clear in the straight .....risky bet but good value win or lose ....I'd be happy with a place 
Sky are going 14/1 4places for the faint of heart 🫣🤣

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

Cajetan is 2/1 so the bookies really fancy him .....but I'm looking for value on a quiet day so I'd rather back a 18/1 than a 2/1 .....want want could finish 8th because they know something with the drift or he could storm clear in the straight .....risky bet but good value win or lose ....I'd be happy with a place 
Sky are going 14/1 4places for the faint of heart 🫣🤣

I'm going crazy with a £1 EW bet on
OUR GIRL SAL
3:05 Punchestown. 80/1 at Bet365.

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

B/Fwd - 78.80 L15's and RC P/L (incl L15's) - 110.70
Had 3 15's on the daily today = 4.50 points
1.10 Asc Rock Hunter 1.50 win at 5/2
3.25 Asc Glamorous Breeze 0.50 ew at 11/1 4p (let's hope the rain stays away for this race)
Total stakes today = 7 points
 

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

Hiya. Tip for today lol. "Vultar" 5.10 Ascot. Justin. 🏇.

So you wouldn't touch Cajetan and would just play WANT WANT e/w?

Cajetan is 2/1 so the bookies really fancy him .....but I'm looking for value on a quiet day so I'd rather back a 18/1 than a 2/1 .....want want could finish 8th because they know something with the drift or he could storm clear in the straight .....risky bet but good value win or lose ....I'd be happy with a place 
Sky are going 14/1 4places for the faint of heart 🫣🤣

I gotta system ! ......... for early season 2 year old 5 furlong races where there's not much form and lots of runners making debuts
(the system is based around sires and damsires progeny average winning trips)
So today we have a nice little Class 2 race at Ascot 1.10 which often throws up Royal Ascot types and my selection is Enchanting Empress EW at 9/1 bet365 (2 places). Outsider of the field and the only filly (which admittedly is a worry). She won on debut and the 2nd has won next time out. She also beat some colts in that race.

Cajetan is 2/1 so the bookies really fancy him .....but I'm looking for value on a quiet day so I'd rather back a 18/1 than a 2/1 .....want want could finish 8th because they know something with the drift or he could storm clear in the straight .....risky bet but good value win or lose ....I'd be happy with a place 
Sky are going 14/1 4places for the faint of heart 🫣🤣

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

Fallen 8.9 
Ylang. 8.6
Porta fortuna.  8.3 
Dance sequence. 8.0 
Content. 7.8
See the fire 7.7 
Cinderella's dream 7.7 
Darnation. 7.5 
Pretty crystal 7.5
Ramatualle.  7.2 
Regal jubilee 7.2
Brilliant 7.2 
Starstyle. 7.0 
Rolica 7.0
Sacred angel 7.0 
Star music 6.8 
Timfana  6.5 
Emallca.  6.5 
Lunar eclipse 6.5 
Finsceal Luas 6.5 
 

Fallen 8.9 
Ylang. 8.6
Porta fortuna.  8.3 
Dance sequence. 8.0 
Content. 7.8
See the fire 7.7 
Cinderella's dream 7.7 
Darnation. 7.5 
Pretty crystal 7.5
Ramatualle.  7.2 
Regal jubilee 7.2
Brilliant 7.2 
Starstyle. 7.0 
Rolica 7.0
Sacred angel 7.0 
Star music 6.8 
Timfana  6.5 
Emallca.  6.5 
Lunar eclipse 6.5 
Finsceal Luas 6.5 
 

Fallen 8.9 
Ylang. 8.6
Porta fortuna.  8.3 
Dance sequence. 8.0 
Content. 7.8
See the fire 7.7 
Cinderella's dream 7.7 
Darnation. 7.5 
Pretty crystal 7.5
Ramatualle.  7.2 
Regal jubilee 7.2
Brilliant 7.2 
Starstyle. 7.0 
Rolica 7.0
Sacred angel 7.0 
Star music 6.8 
Timfana  6.5 
Emallca.  6.5 
Lunar eclipse 6.5 
Finsceal Luas 6.5 
 

I think for me .....ghostwriter has always been up there ....I can see him placing and being a better horse in the derby later on .....and haatem is also looking overpriced at 33/1..,.so I'm very happy to have 5pt Ew on both ....just a shame only 3 places 

I think for me .....ghostwriter has always been up there ....I can see him placing and being a better horse in the derby later on .....and haatem is also looking overpriced at 33/1..,.so I'm very happy to have 5pt Ew on both ....just a shame only 3 places 

Well after a 'bonus' day Tuesday with an EW Win and EW 2nd, so adding very nicely to our 'pot' for upcoming Newmarket meeting we attending.....
we had a look at Ascot card and big prize money on offer and saw some races only 5 or 6 runners 😥.....
normally we go to the opening day of new Ascot season, but as we have an invite for Newmarket 3 day weekend we passed it over. Its such a shame as Grandstand tickets are £20, its generally known as a trials day for horses, who then go forward to the Royal Ascot meeting with an experience of the course 🐎  but we dont envisage a large crowd im afraid! Soooo we wish the Ascot team well on opening day for some top class racing  / prize money. We will see you soon and many friends there, to experience 1 Fabulous day at end of June for the Royal Meeting 😂
 
Late tip from HQ......
3.25 Woolhampton @ 7/2 for Devon trainer B Millman, run 3 times at course Win / 2nd / 3rd..... not coming up to Ascot for day out & 7lbs decent claimer onboard.......WON

Yes I e managed to get the epic boost 66/1 ...cmon you beauty 🤩 

Going to take a break before I disappear up my own rabbit hole but here's a couple of tables that may be of interest (or not).
# Horse Odds BF MaxAv 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 113.0 2 Henry Longfellow 26 26 110.8 3 Task Force 21 23 110.3 4 Haatem 34 38 109.0 5 Ghostwriter 17 20 107.6 6 River Tiber 41 130 107.6 7 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 106.3 8 Rosallion 5 8.2 104.9 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 101.0 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 100.7 11 Diego Velazquez 51 100 100.7 12 Notable Speech 11 14.5 98.3 13 Inisherin 34 55 97.9 14 Iberian 26 48 97.5 Sorted by best individual rating (shows you all agree the bottom 6 are bang average or worse).
# Horse Odds BF MinAv 1 Ghostwriter 17 20 105.6 2 Haatem 34 38 103.9 3 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 103.1 4 River Tiber 41 130 100.7 5 Rosallion 5 8.2 97.9 6 Alyanaabi 21 29 96.7 7 Night Raider 17 17.5 94.6 8 Task Force 21 23 94.3 9 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 92.1 10 Notable Speech 11 14.5 92.1 11 Henry Longfellow 26 26 91.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 86.3 13 Iberian 26 48 83.3 14 Diego Velazquez 51 100 75.9 Sorted by worst individual rating (shows you all agree the top 4 are at least slightly better than average).