richard-westwood

I feel a bit lost without the PL Napsters posting today
Here goes for the multiple
(B) 2.35 Asc Aggagio ** 15/8 @The Brigadier
(C) 3.45 Asc Giavellotto ** 11/4 @The Brigadier
(D) 4.20 Asc Lethal Nymph ** 7/2 @The Brigadier
(A) 3.35 Hex Captain Tom Cat 11/4@Tumbleweed King
(E) 4.00 Font The Golden Rebel  15/8 @The Brigadier
A - E 4 x 1.50 win doubles at 1.50 = poss return 77.04 & BCD 1 x 1 pt win treble poss return 48.51 = Total stakes 7 points
Back soon with some singles and savers
2.00 Asc Pocket The Profit 1 pt win at 6.00 @The Brigadierand Stone Soldier 0.60 ew at 12/1 @Tedthewolf plus Able Kane 0.60 ew at 14/1 @black rabbit
4.55 Asc Persian Royal 0.60 ew at 6/1 and Bullace 0.60 ew at 9/1 both @richard-westwood+ 1.30 Yantarni at 2.98 @The BrigadierNap
Total spend so far 14.10
No luck and only one double left with The Golden Rebel and Lethal Nymph.  I will place a saver bet on Silent Speech in the 4.20 at Ascot; 2 pts at 5.1 um at 4.9
Total stakes 16.10 today
A complete blank so far today as my last double fails.
I have placed 5 points to win on Lethal Lymph at 4.5 for 20.19 return. 
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Lethal Nympth saved the day for me.  Together with a small place return my profit was 1.41 points.  This made my MTD +122.59 which was a very good month for me.  My YTD stands at -173.98 so still a lot to do to eliminate the deficit by the end of the year.
Tons of class racing later , hopefully I can stick to class3 and higher races

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Watch the race see what happens im predicting based on data that the horse will fade unless as i pointed out he has tried them at home, the data actually shows 2nd time blinkers work far better,  it ran quite well last year in the arc as a 3yo and is german bred so i reallly wanted to back it at 100/1 but have basically crossed it off my shortlist, might i suggest many trainers dont know the actual stats, what i am saying is that a horse first time blinkered that has to run around a bend (they panic) will only win once out of 100. Oddly enough it doesnt apply in jumps racing. Alenquers best chance is if it gets boxed in all the way round to stop it using all its energy up too soon.

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy
apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it.
Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo.
The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th
I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out.
So i am left with 6 runners
Alpinista              11/2                       dr6                                                                                           likely winner
Torquator Tasso   15/2                      dr18          Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mendocino           33/1                      dr1           Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mare Australis      20/1                     dr19          Ger                                                   Fabre had many options  also Murzabeyev booking seems significant.
Sealiway                33/1                     dr15           beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo
Bubble Gift            66/1                     dr 13          beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo
Conclusion.
Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1
going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts
best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

Ascot 455 
Bullace  8.2 9/1 
Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 
These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

419 salis 
Spanish star  8.2 10.0 
Sergeant Tibbs  8.0 33/1 
King of jungle  8.0  7.2
These 3 are,a bit clear of rest and good prices so I'll try 4pt wins all 3 
 
 

419 salis 
Spanish star  8.2 10.0 
Sergeant Tibbs  8.0 33/1 
King of jungle  8.0  7.2
These 3 are,a bit clear of rest and good prices so I'll try 4pt wins all 3 
 
 

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

419 salis 
Spanish star  8.2 10.0 
Sergeant Tibbs  8.0 33/1 
King of jungle  8.0  7.2
These 3 are,a bit clear of rest and good prices so I'll try 4pt wins all 3 
 
 

419 salis 
Spanish star  8.2 10.0 
Sergeant Tibbs  8.0 33/1 
King of jungle  8.0  7.2
These 3 are,a bit clear of rest and good prices so I'll try 4pt wins all 3 
 
 

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

Well ....I've had a plan this year .....in the last 5 years of the 15 places available 11 were drawn 1 to 7 ....13 were drawn 1 to 9 .....I know last years winner was 12 but he was 100/1 do probably a blip ....so from a value perspective I'm going to rate the bottom 7 draws and hopefully it will throw up a good bet or 2 ........my 2nd criteria was not beaten more than 2.25 lengths lto .... and I prefer my horse to have ran at longchamp or leop last time out .....if I can get find a high rated horse or 2 in the bottom 7 draws that passes those the moneys on ??

now one of the trickiest g1 of the year, and a great one to solve. in the past the winner was always 1st or fav in the prix niel or the vermaille  (2022 sweet lady won the fav was tuesday) (trials). The prices on the day will be affected by the Japanese runner they always distort the prices due to the amount of money the Japanese bet on them a good example was deep inpact who ended up fav many years ago that year the prix niel was won by rail link in an incredible time and was available on arc day at 20/1 but ended up the 8/1 winner (2022 winner of the prix niel was simca mille. fav was japans, do deuce.) One other important pointer if the ground comes up heavy German breeding kicks in as happend last  year,  alpinista has the beating of  last years winner torquator tasso on all german form, german bred winners are not uncommon see danedream and waldgeist. these are always my starting thoughts for the arc before i even bother looking at the final runners. one other point, A Fabre is a genious never underestimate any of his runners.