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Arc de triomph Sunday 2nd October


richard-westwood
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What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....

Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 

Vadeni          8.9  10/1 

Alpinista     8.9   11/2 

Westover    8.3 

Do deuce    8.2 

Deep bond   8.0 

Mendocini    8.0 

Al hakeen   7.9 

Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....

Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 

 

Edited by richard-westwood
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I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy

apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it.

Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo.

The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th

I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out.

So i am left with 6 runners

Alpinista              11/2                       dr6                                                                                           likely winner

Torquator Tasso   15/2                      dr18          Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd

Mendocino           33/1                      dr1           Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd

Mare Australis      20/1                     dr19          Ger                                                   Fabre had many options  also Murzabeyev booking seems significant.

Sealiway                33/1                     dr15           beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo

Bubble Gift            66/1                     dr 13          beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo

Conclusion.

Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1

going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts

best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

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33 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Why would Haggas send a horse out to such a big race in first time blinkers if he didn’t think it had a chance? 🤔

Watch the race see what happens im predicting based on data that the horse will fade unless as i pointed out he has tried them at home, the data actually shows 2nd time blinkers work far better,  it ran quite well last year in the arc as a 3yo and is german bred so i reallly wanted to back it at 100/1 but have basically crossed it off my shortlist, might i suggest many trainers dont know the actual stats, what i am saying is that a horse first time blinkered that has to run around a bend (they panic) will only win once out of 100. Oddly enough it doesnt apply in jumps racing. Alenquers best chance is if it gets boxed in all the way round to stop it using all its energy up too soon.

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On 9/29/2022 at 11:24 PM, calva decoy said:

One of Haggas's who will relish the soft / heavy going @Zilzalian albeit runs in the Prix Dollar at 4 o'clock on Saturday is the Son of Pivotal ADDEYBB 7/1 coral best price , don't do coral so 13/2 b.o.g bet365 for me .

Even though the thread title is Arc De Triomphe ( Sunday ) I'll post Saturday's here as well which I hope is ok .

133- SEA THE SKY ( 16/1 bet365 3 places) showed massive improvement stepping up & winning over CD last time out & the more rain the better . 4th 

325- PRINCESS ZOE ( 18/1 bet365 3 places ) back off the same mark as when winning this last year on very soft same as Saturday's . 4th 

435- THE REVENANT ( 11/4 bet365 ) I just like this horse , will absolutely relish the going but is giving the Aga Khan's horse 3Lb , will be flying late . 2nd 

rather they be last than one place from a pay out .

Marquand , Moore & trainer O'Brien reporting the ground nowhere near as bad as reported , more sticky than proper soft but plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning .

Edited by calva decoy
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20 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Even though the thread title is Arc De Triomphe ( Sunday ) I'll post Saturday's here as well which I hope is ok .

133- SEA THE SKY ( 16/1 bet365 3 places) showed massive improvement stepping up & winning over CD last time out & the more rain the better .

325- PRINCESS ZOE ( 18/1 bet365 3 places ) back off the same mark as when winning this last year on very soft same as Saturday's .

435- THE REVENANT ( 11/4 bet365 ) I just like this horse , will absolutely relish the going but is giving the Aga Khan's horse 3Lb , will be flying late .

Got all 3 of yours down as positives although the 1:33 is a quandary for me, i have both fabre horses sea the sky, love child, and ottilien dead level so i am going to go with with the 4 yr old love child i have serious doubts about this years classic generation when up against older horses.

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 Aspen Grove     1 50      1/20th  of a pt win 18/1

Castle Star     4 25      1/20th  of a pt  win  28/1     { now a N/R }

Broome      3 05       1/20th of a pt place  30/1 

Titleholder  305      1/10th of a pt win     12/1

Mooniesta   4 25     1/20th of a pt  win    28/1

Vadeni       3 05   1/10 pt win    9/1

A Case Of You   4 25  1/20 of a pt win   22/1

 

 

 

 

P/L       + 161. 5/10 th's  pt 

Edited by black rabbit
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On 9/29/2022 at 3:39 PM, calva decoy said:

Only 4 winners from the last 20 renewals have came from a double figure draw two from stall 14 & two from 15 , I'd fancy a home bred winner but bit of a dart job .

Haha, I see that the ATR race card shows the draw advantage for the race to be "High".  I might have a small bet on Onesto and possibly Mishriff as I like the horse and Buick is aboard

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A case to be made.

Another angle, below is the race Alpinista won won at Saint-Cloud.

Most that seriously follow racing know Fabre is a genious, go back a couple of years, waldgeist beat enable, fabre brought waldgeist to the UK and twice got beat by enable, in an interview on arc day Fabre was asked about the race and whether Enable could get the hatrick  to which he replied with a knowing look that he would hate to spoil the party.

Now look at the race below, Baratti trained by Fabre was 33/1 in the morning and Alpinista beat it by 1,1/4L, Mare Australis was 5/1 beaten 10L (forget the going description on this race no horse can beat standard by over 4 seconds on good to soft ground, the ground must have been GF-G. Fabre leaves Baratti (his best 12F 3yo on my speed figures) out and puts in Mare Australis so i reckon fabre thinks he can beat alpinista. Mare australis if it wins will be the 3rd German bred horse to win the arc, 2020,2021 2022? Fancy the 50/1 with WH?

 

Screenshot 2022-10-02 002428.png

Edited by Zilzalian
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Double football & Sunday dinner so I'll record the racing & watch this evening .

150- HABANA 6/1 sky bet ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th ) one of the least exposed in the field , more rain the better after easy Group 3 win at Baden Baden , extra 1f in trip should see more progression . 👎

305- ALPINISTA 5/1 ( free bet from bet365 ) fillies & mare have good record in this race , good draw in 6 , going a worry .

1st , cheers bet365 👍, she did it easy as well .

Other picks but no bets just ITV 7 .

115- TIGRAIS 👎

225- HATTAL 👎

350- MY ASTRA 4th 

425- COEUR DE PIERRE 3rd 

500- FANG 👎

Edited by calva decoy
results update
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19 minutes ago, BBBC said:

Does anyone have an opinion on whether (generally) the Paris SP will outperform the bookies odds, please?

So far ive seen Corals doing best odds but not many others ...

I think this could be a one-off day as thousands of British & Irish go over to Paris and probably back the British & Irish horses on the Pari-Mutuel so the usual and logical rules might not apply

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51 minutes ago, BBBC said:

Does anyone have an opinion on whether (generally) the Paris SP will outperform the bookies odds, please?

So far ive seen Corals doing best odds but not many others ...

The general rule is if its French back at our bookies if its english back the pari mutual  arc day is such a big race day that it rarely differs these days but the arc itself will be subject to big influx of japanese money so as long as your not backing the japanese runners try to get bog what i do these days is split my singles down the middle half on uk market half on the pm.

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1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Double football & Sunday dinner so I'll record the racing & watch this evening .

150- HABANA 6/1 sky bet ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th ) one of the least exposed in the field , more rain the better after easy Group 3 win at Baden Baden , extra 1f in trip should see more progression .

305- ALPINISTA 5/1 ( free bet from bet365 ) fillies & mare have good record in this race , good draw in 6 , going a worry .

 

The exact 2 I went with and same bet co, lol

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Its the one race of the year that calls for and falls into the lap of Alf Tupper...the tough of the track.

That's why we never saw Frankel

That's why Baaeed is going to Ascot. 

The posh horses who never had to do an honest's days hard graft in their careers. First time beaten they are finished.

By Gum....you are going to have to work your hooves off in the Arc de Triumph.

Baaeed has never had to sweat in his career. Not a great starter...normally 6th. In the Arc that's 18th. Lets see how good you are NOW posh horse!

Haggis and Cecil knew damn well. Frankel and Baaeed are not horses that "like it up em".

Youmzain....the ultimate Alf Tupper..."tough of the track" was three times second in the Arc and only the weight beat him twice. Plenty more great fighters in the History of the Arc...but no posh kids.

Unbeaten in a lucky career of beating up "bums"

So is the O'Brien's Luxembourg a "posh kid"? I don't know.

We will see. I like him. Injury...come back well. Got the makings.

But 20 horses?....is he that good he can get a front 6 position early as his style needs...?

Doubt it.

1st Vadeni   124  

2nd Torquator Tasso 121 (singing 'You were made for ME) all the way

3rd Luxembourg...

4th some Japanese horse at 100-1 who has run on fast ground all his career only to discover he's a flying machine in Paris Bog.

 

 

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On 9/29/2022 at 9:14 PM, Zilzalian said:

I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy

apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it.

Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo.

The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th

I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out.

So i am left with 6 runners

Alpinista              11/2                       dr6                                                                                           likely winner

Torquator Tasso   15/2                      dr18          Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd

Mendocino           33/1                      dr1           Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd

Mare Australis      20/1                     dr19          Ger                                                   Fabre had many options  also Murzabeyev booking seems significant.

Sealiway                33/1                     dr15           beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo

Bubble Gift            66/1                     dr 13          beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo

Conclusion.

Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1

going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts

best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

well done mate 👏

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On 9/29/2022 at 12:44 PM, richard-westwood said:

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....

Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 

Vadeni          8.9  10/1 

Alpinista     8.9   11/2 

Westover    8.3 

Do deuce    8.2 

Deep bond   8.0 

Mendocini    8.0 

Al hakeen   7.9 

Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....

Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 

 

Aplinista won ...Great performance on ground and vadeni stayed after all for 2nd ......

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In 2020 when i first came on this site i posted as below, yes i am bragging but my point is this.
if you dont have a notebook then you are at a severe disadvantage or lets reverse that If you do use a notebook then you have a great advantage.

i have made about 10k out of alpinista over 2 years i even recommended it in a 180/1 forecast 2 races ago when i actually got an incredible 10/1 for alpinista  bog on that race.

i backed it for this arc at 16/1 and 20/1. Btw the horse to take out of this arc is vadeni 3yo ran an incredible race.

 

Screenshot 2022-10-02 153447.png

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13 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Double football & Sunday dinner so I'll record the racing & watch this evening .

150- HABANA 6/1 sky bet ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th ) one of the least exposed in the field , more rain the better after easy Group 3 win at Baden Baden , extra 1f in trip should see more progression . 👎

305- ALPINISTA 5/1 ( free bet from bet365 ) fillies & mare have good record in this race , good draw in 6 , going a worry .

1st , cheers bet365 👍, she did it easy as well .

Other picks but no bets just ITV 7 .

115- TIGRAIS 👎

225- HATTAL 👎

350- MY ASTRA 4th 

425- COEUR DE PIERRE 3rd 

500- FANG 👎

Watched the recorded highlights & good day for UK & Ireland , surprised to see a 66/1 & a 2 year old winner & the weather looked foul , roll on the next big overseas meeting when Keeneland takes centre stage for the weekend in a month's time .

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