richard-westwood

Wow ...2nd 3rd and 4th in betting ...lol .....4pt Ew top 2 ...4pt win Ascot 

A few stats fromrthe Gold / Silver /Bronze cups
1st 5 in the betting forecast, 15 from 150, profit 84 points, remainder 10 from 431, loss 168 points
Last ran 29 to 35 days ago, 8 from 77, profit 119 points
Draw > 20, 8 from 121, profit 55 points
 

Yeah I hoped for better run from top 2 ....but the drop from 7f in sticky ground was perfect for Ascot  so I really fancied him and that's how it played out ......onwards🫢 and upwards 😁

Ehraz was win bet ..... so outlay was 9 ....return. about 8.2.... I was unlucky.  Could easily have been a profit ....normally I do Ew both if they are both over 11/2 so then there the chance if both place to make a profit off both and that happens a lot ....plus you get 2 high rated shots at win ...like a brill tag team in effect .....if the ratings are accurate  then the winner will usually be in top 3 .....you can't account for the sudden improver on the day like today ....it's more a loss control really to claw back a few  points when you don't win like today ...didn't win but almost broke even ...so I'll fight another day ...and sometimes one wins the other places and you get a win and a bonus win  ....and psychologically the little Ew wins keep up morale so it's win/win lol
Someone on here does all my horses Ew all the time especially in big races and when I've won 60 PTS they've annoyingly ended up with 80-90 cos of all the little Ew wins ..they've been doing that to half stakes Ew for years and are well in profit.overall ......and they get loads fun ....it's just personal choice
😂

im just doing a few today off the site, none my own after good afternoon yesterday. Then also Daily NAP won in evening @ 12/1 EW to round off good day, so maybe tomorrow invest a little bit 😎

Ascot adventure wins nicely ...+28.00...jordan was 3rd 

Ascot adventure wins nicely ...+28.00...jordan was 3rd 

Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..
Rock melody.   8.6 
Music society.   8.4 
Ascot adventure. 7.9 
Little muddy.    7.7
Jordan elec.    7.7 
No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later 
 

Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..
Rock melody.   8.6 
Music society.   8.4 
Ascot adventure. 7.9 
Little muddy.    7.7
Jordan elec.    7.7 
No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later 
 

B associates 
Bellagio man
Asadjumeirah
Claim the stars
rock melody
combination tricast
bellagio man each way
Asadjumeirah win
claim the stars  each way 
B. Associates each way 

Bronze Cup Ayr 3.25
1pt e/w  bog  6places on both ASADJUMEIRAH 16/1  GHATHANFAR 20/1 = 4pts invested
 

I always fear Gulliver when he's in my top 5 ....that last run on all weather was difficult to rate so he could be better than his rating if can transfer it back to turf ....if 🤔

Oh yeah 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Perdika                                                         2 50 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew      22/1
Rodaballo                                                     4 10 New/             1/40th of a pt win    22/1
American Kestrel                                         4 10 New/             1/40th of a pt win    38/1
 
 
 
 
P/L  +171.45 pts

Wow ...2nd 3rd and 4th in betting ...lol .....4pt Ew top 2 ...4pt win Ascot 

I always fear Gulliver when he's in my top 5 ....that last run on all weather was difficult to rate so he could be better than his rating if can transfer it back to turf ....if 🤔

Singles.
3.35. Newb. Royal Supremacy       5/1
stk 5.00   rtn 30.00
3.25. Ayr. American Affair                15/2
Stk 5.00    rtn 42.00
Double. 
4.40.Kemp. Imperial Guard         4/1
5.15. Kemp  Eulacepeacock          9/4
singles & double 
Good luck all. 

Nine races covered by ITV today and here’s my preview of the nine.   Ayr 1.15 Richard Spencer’s seven year old Revich has a good record in this race having won it in 2021 from a 3lb lower handicap and was third last year off of the same mark as he races off of today. He comes here in good form having run well at Chester earlier this month despite being drawn poorly. Hollie Doyle comes in for the ride in this ten runner 1M class handicap and looks poised to run a big race.   REVICH 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Newbury 1.30 Just the five sprinters line up for this Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes run over 5F. The current favourite is the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty who is returning from an absence of 455 days and has never raced on ground this testing. He has to be taken on and maybe today’s the day for Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora who seems to relish the mud. Oisin Murphy is on board for his old guvnor and can take the opener at Newbury today.   NYMPHADORA 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill   Ayr 1.50 With My Prospero an eleventh hour defection only seven line up for the Doonside Cup. Amy Murthy’s Pride Of America has conditions to suit and the genuine front runner can make all and see off his biggest danger in Royal Rhyme who like the selection will love the cut in the ground.   PRIDE OF AMERICA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor 1/5th 123   Newbury 2.05 A tricky seven runner class 2 handicap which may fall to Ian Williams’s Oneforthegutter who put up a career best last week in the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster on the softest ground that he’s ever encountered when going down by a short head to Imaginary Day. This race looks no better and off of just a one pound higher mark can go one better under Richard Kingscote. Look for the firms who are paying three places.   ONEFORTHEGUTTER 1 point each way  @ 7/1 Coral 1/5th 123   Ayr 2.25 The first of the two big sprint handicaps is the Ayr Silver Cup run over 6F with a maximum field of 25. The two that stand out from a point of handicapping are Michael Herrington’s Rathbone and Iain Jardine’s Jump The Gun. They actually met in an apprentice handicap at Doncaster last week and with Conor Planas now able to claim his 3lb its the former that makes the most appeal and can be backed each way with additional places.   RATHBONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 Betfred 1/5th 123456   Newbury 2.40 The testing ground will be very much a factor here with the likes of Totnes and Le Mans unproven on such a slow surface. Balance Play may have found the fast ground at York against him and is worth another chance to bounce back to form on this much slower surface. Course winner Mustazeed can also run well and looks one of the dangers to the selection.   BALANCE PLAY 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor   Ayr 3.00 Nine have declared for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Stakes for two year old fillies run over 6F and although short enough in the betting it’s hard to oppose the Owen Burrows trained Shadwell Stud owned Raqiya. She’s looked useful in winning at Salisbury and Haydock this autumn and can take this step up in class in her stride with the owners retained jockey Jim Crowley up here to ride.   RAQIYA 1 point win @ 11/8 William Hill   Newbury 3.15 Eight two year olds line up for the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes with the officially highest rated being George Scott’s Seven Questions who has already shown his liking for soft ground when winning at Ripon in August. Just touched off in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton last time he can go one better now back on easy ground with Callum Shepherd doing the steering.   SEVEN QUESTIONS 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Ayr 3.35 The meeting’s feature race is the 6F Ayr Gold Cup run over 6F with a maximum field of 25. Julie Camacho has had a terrific season with her top sprinter Shaquille and appears to have a decent chance here with her five year old Significantly who went down in a bobbing finish by a short head to Annaf last Saturday at Doncaster in the Portland Handicap and reappears off of the same handicap mark. Drawn in the middle he will be ridden by Joe Fanning and a big run is expected in this famous old sprint handicap.   SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456  

Silver cup 
Rathbone 9.0 ??....15/2 
Jump the gun. 8.8 8/1 
Aplomb.   8.8 14/1 
Gulliver 8.2 
Illusionist.  8.2 
Very very difficult race to rate ....computer has flagged top rated as potential improver ahead of hccaper ??.....but jump the gun has collateral form with rathbone and shouldn't be far away from him ....aplomb has been showing good form recently too .....I'll try 5pt wins top 3 this time ...but it's a toughie 

Gold cup 
Orazio.  9.0. 11.0 
Juan le pins. 8.9 10/1 
Significantly 8.7 12.0 
Bielsa.  8.4 
Fast response   8.2 
Top 3 5pt wins 

Over 2 days long shot but horses I follow 🤞

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

Gold cup 
Orazio.  9.0. 11.0 
Juan le pins. 8.9 10/1 
Significantly 8.7 12.0 
Bielsa.  8.4 
Fast response   8.2 
Top 3 5pt wins 

Ehraz was win bet ..... so outlay was 9 ....return. about 8.2.... I was unlucky.  Could easily have been a profit ....normally I do Ew both if they are both over 11/2 so then there the chance if both place to make a profit off both and that happens a lot ....plus you get 2 high rated shots at win ...like a brill tag team in effect .....if the ratings are accurate  then the winner will usually be in top 3 .....you can't account for the sudden improver on the day like today ....it's more a loss control really to claw back a few  points when you don't win like today ...didn't win but almost broke even ...so I'll fight another day ...and sometimes one wins the other places and you get a win and a bonus win  ....and psychologically the little Ew wins keep up morale so it's win/win lol
Someone on here does all my horses Ew all the time especially in big races and when I've won 60 PTS they've annoyingly ended up with 80-90 cos of all the little Ew wins ..they've been doing that to half stakes Ew for years and are well in profit.overall ......and they get loads fun ....it's just personal choice
😂

Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..
Rock melody.   8.6 
Music society.   8.4 
Ascot adventure. 7.9 
Little muddy.    7.7
Jordan elec.    7.7 
No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later