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Racing chat -friday 22nd sept (ayr bronze cup)

richard-westwood
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..

Rock melody.   8.6 

Music society.   8.4 

Ascot adventure. 7.9 

Little muddy.    7.7

Jordan elec.    7.7 

No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later 

 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..

Rock melody.   8.6 8/1

Music society.   8.4 9/1

Ascot adventure. 7.9 11/1

Little muddy.    7.7

Jordan elec.    7.7 

No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later 

 

Wow ...2nd 3rd and 4th in betting ...lol .....4pt Ew top 2 ...4pt win Ascot 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

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Claim the stars is the first horse of interest along with b associate and the joint top weight rock melody.
Tim Easterby has a strong hand here with music society a former winner while the trainer won this last year with a horse from Andrew Balding who’d dropped down to a handicapper from a rating of over 100 He has done a similar job on claim the stars turning into a class six winning handicapper from a group horse . I’m compiling a shottlist of horses here for a tricast assault on the race and there are horses to add and subtract from this list subject to non runners and draw data.
The draw data over a short and long trawl is compelling.

B associates 

Bellagio man

Asadjumeirah

***********************

Claim the stars

rock melody

these are five of my top runners for this race in no particular order at this stage early days as more may be withdrawn later which would change further the fabric of the race. It is very early in the piece for me to rip a race to shreds as I do not have the complete picture.

Three of them meet the criteria for draw data while two are in there because of the traverse law of physics.

at the prices though any non action from both rock melody and music society would be material to the chances of cellar dweller 

CLAIM THE STARS

each way

lowest drawn lowest weighted looks to have got in lightly .

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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6 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Claim the stars is the first horse of interest along with b associate and the joint top weight rock melody.
Tim Easterby has a strong hand here with music society a former winner while the trainer won this last year with a horse from Andrew Balding who’d dropped down to a handicapper from a rating of over 100 He has done a similar job on claim the stars turning into a class six winning handicapper from a group horse . I’m compiling a shottlist of horses here for a tricast assault on the race and there are horses to add and subtract from this list subject to non runners and draw data.
The draw data over a short and long trawl is compelling.

I always fear Gulliver when he's in my top 5 ....that last run on all weather was difficult to rate so he could be better than his rating if can transfer it back to turf ....if 🤔

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kensland

kensland

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Singles.

3.35. Newb. Royal Supremacy       5/1

stk 5.00   rtn 30.00

3.25. Ayr. American Affair                15/2

Stk 5.00    rtn 42.00

Double. 

4.40.Kemp. Imperial Guard         4/1

5.15. Kemp  Eulacepeacock          9/4

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Perdika                                                         2 50 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew      22/1

Rodaballo                                                     4 10 New/             1/40th of a pt win    22/1

American Kestrel                                         4 10 New/             1/40th of a pt win    38/1

 

 

 

 

P/L  +171.45 pts

Edited by black rabbit
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

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Listowel 1:35

TAG MAN

Win

and to win by 5+ lengths @ evens

is difficult to oppose here has a ton of experience over these fences and a bumper winner to boot rated 128 could be conservative.

 The two newcomers I like both having winning points experience
Colline Fleurie 

now is the time 

Both each way

with Gavin Cromwell at the helm of one of these sure to relish the trip.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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On 9/21/2023 at 2:16 PM, richard-westwood said:

Ayr bronze cup current ratings ..

Rock melody.   8.6 

Music society.   8.4 

Ascot adventure. 7.9 

Little muddy.    7.7

Jordan elec.    7.7 

No odds yet so I'll update later ....25 runner cavalry charge so I'll be focussed on top 3.    Rock is drawn far rail which is fab and adds bonus points .    Ascot is drawn low which is also good in case there's a bias and stays 7f well in case the ground gets sticky ......music society is a dark horse ...runs stinkers but can put it together and run a great race from time to time so he needs to be in at this level ...update bets prices later 

 

 

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Wow ...2nd 3rd and 4th in betting ...lol .....4pt Ew top 2 ...4pt win Ascot 

Ascot adventure wins nicely ...+28.00...jordan was 3rd 

Edited by richard-westwood
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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4 minutes ago, Brahmin said:

👍 @richard-westwood......Ascot adventure @ 8/1 EW wins......did other 2 also Rock melody / Music society but still nice profit with the win 💷

Yeah I hoped for better run from top 2 ....but the drop from 7f in sticky ground was perfect for Ascot  so I really fancied him and that's how it played out ......onwards🫢 and upwards 😁

Edited by richard-westwood
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Brahmin

Brahmin

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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah I hoped for better run ....but the drop from 7f in sticky ground was perfect so I really fancied him and that's how it played out ......onwards🫢 and upwards 😁

im just doing a few today off the site, none my own after good afternoon yesterday. Then also Daily NAP won in evening @ 12/1 EW to round off good day, so maybe tomorrow invest a little bit 😎

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

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Dundalk 5:25

when is a maiden not a maiden?

when he’s already won a barrier trial over the course.

JACKS INN

Each way

has to over come the outside stall here in number 17. Jacks  inn has done just that.

Academy winner

win

is in stall 1 and these two on a turning track will meet at some stage in this race. Well bred and likely to go well.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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