neilovan

A Masters in April, is totally different to one in November. So I think you can discard much of the last Masters results. There are a few keys to scoring well on this course. 
Experience ... every year the Masters is played in the same place. So playing 20 to 30 Championship rounds there will definitely help a player. A rookie is just not going to win.
The course has to set up for you. The problem this year (if you a right to left mover of the ball), is that right to left brings big bounce topspin. This year the fairways will run out. Left to right is far more controlled. So the power fade is really the shot to have here.
You have to play the 16 par 5 opportunities really well. A winner is probably gonna be close to 14 under for the week on these 4 holes.
With dry bouncy fairways, a straight hitter is gonna do well. Straight and reasonably long is probably winner (Morikawa, Kisner. Kuchar), Thomas).
I don't fancy de Chambeau this week. It's not like he can overpower this golf course and others can't.  Most of the field will be hitting 2nd shots at the green on 3 of 4 par 5's.
Looking at the par 5's;
#2 is a difficult green to hit (yet Oosthuizen made Albatross there some years ago). But a layup in the right place seems better than an uncontrolled shot at the green.
#8 is a brute. Long, uphill. Not many are gonna be putting for Eagle there... A solid 2nd and a good chip probably makes a birdie 75% of the time.
#13 Is probably the easiest of the par 5's to hit in 2. Certainly not overpowering. Just how much risk are you gonna take ... how far left off the Tee can you risk it?
#15 not difficult, and in reach for probably 90% of the field.
So for me driving accuracy brings guys like Morikawa, Webb Simpson, Kisner, Kuchar, D Johnstone. Kisner has the best PGA stats for missing the rough (83% of the time). Morikawa is a leader in both fairways hit and greens in regulation.
 
A few players I don't fancy at all. McIIroy, Mickelson, Tony Finau, Schwartzel, de Chambeau.
 
My dark horses Franscesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen , Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland.
 
Three bets for outright. Jon Rham, Speith, D.Johnstone.
 

Burnley v Fulham    and 
Fulham v Sheffield United 
 
Sheffield United and WBA look to be heading to the Championship next season. The gap is too big to pull back. WBA just defend badly, and they simply need 2 or more goals to win every match. This is not the Allerdyce way. Sheffield United just need to play Man United every week ☺️, but they only get them twice a year.
Fulham look good. They have been getting better game after game, and the win at Everton was no fluke. Now they have two games that will determine their season. They gotta be feeling great after collecting all three points at Everton, so confidence will be high.

I don't expect them to win both these games, but 4 points would be a solid haul. Can they win one of these two games? Absolutely. 2 would be brilliant for them. If I was going for the Fulham win here, I would bet both games separately, for the same stake. I just need one winner out of the two games and I am a winner. If Fulham can go and dominate Everton and find the win, they could have more than enough for Burnley, and way too much for Sheffield United.
Prediction: Fulham win both games (taken as 2 separate, equal bets).
If they win both, then a nice win. If they win 1 you have a decent winner.

Spurs v Liverpool
Liverpool look like they have hit a brick wall. Goals have dried up, and there are issues upfront. Maybe some friction between Mane and Salah. Firmino is not playing well.
Another huge factor is fatigue. I think the way in which Liverpool played last season has drained the team. I don't think the heavy metal, foot to the pedal football is sustainable through a long tough season. Liverpool were at it this way two season's in a row, and it looks a bridge to far. For me this could be the first of two away defeats this week for the reigning champions. West Ham will be licking their chops ...
van Djik is also a huge miss. He set up the defense and let the team play in a certain way. Now they look a little unsure of themselves. Pool are ripe for the taking, and I think Spurs will do just that.

Mourinho has an excellent squad ... probably their only weakness is a lack of belief. They are good, but they have never won anything. They need some winners, who's winning mentality will rub off. If Tottenham can beat a good Man City side, they can definitely beat a struggling Liverpool side. There is no ON-switch for a struggling team ... and Liverpool's struggles will continue here. My only worry is that Spurs stop playing at 2-0, and the over 2.5 goal bet loses again.

Home Win & Over 2.5 : Odds 3.25

I watched that Villa game against City, and I thought Grealish was outstanding. His decision making was brilliant, and he was able to link the play so well. If he is half firing Villa win this going away. I think Ollie Watkins has a big night here. If Villa can run rings around Liverpool, and demolish Arsenal away (could have been 6-0 but was only 3), they could give Newcastle a proper beating.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle
The only Premier League fixture taking place this weekend is the 8pm GMT kick-off on Saturday evening between out-of-form sides Aston Villa and Newcastle which is scheduled to be played at Villa Park. Unfortunately, both of these teams suffered early eliminations from the FA Cup in the 3rd Round and can now make up some ground for the fixtures they had to postpone due to their respective coronavirus outbreaks.
Aston Villa had started this season so well but now sit down in 11th place after a run of no wins in three attempts in the league. That spell includes two matches postponed due to coronavirus so the club hasn't actually experienced a win in the league since Boxing Day. Dean Smith's men have had to play Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea in those three league games so maybe we shouldn't be too critical. If they were to lose this game then it would be the first time since 2001 that they have lost their first three league games of a calendar year. On the flip side, if they keep a clean sheet here then it'll be the first time since 2012 that they have kept three clean sheets at home in the league in a row.
Newcastle are in their traditional downturn of form that could well see them dragged into yet another relegation dog fight. Steve Bruce had appeared to be silencing the critics but it's now 8 matches without a win in all competitions. The Magpies are down to 15th in the table and now just 7 points above the relegation zone. Just 1 goal scored in their last 6 competitive matches shows you exactly where the issues are with this Newcastle side. The bad news continues with Newcastle having lost 5 games in a row on the road in all competitions. It's really hard to see how they're going to find their way out of this slump.
There's not a lot for Newcastle fans to be positive about at the moment but they have only lost 1 of their last 14 meetings with Aston Villa. Sadly, it was in this fixture last season that the single defeat happened. It's also now been three league meetings in the Premier League with Aston Villa that Newcastle have failed to score. You wouldn't bet against it happening again here. I'm expecting a narrow Villa win.
Aston Villa to Win to Nil @ 3.00 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.70 with SBK

VILLA v NEWCASTLE
 
Newcastle have slipped in previous weeks. Confidence is low, and momentum poor. In the last 7 league games they have picked up just 2 points. They have scored 1 goal in their last 5 games (same as Liverpool and Southampton).

Villa have gone in the other direction. They played well against Man United and Man CIty and lost both games. Crazy, strange offside Man City goal swung the game. Not sure how someone can come back from 20 yards offside and then make a tackle and change the game. Just seems crazy. But the bottom line is that Villa were not outplayed. Slightly better finishing, and a little luck and they could have had a result here.

Jack Grealish had a fantastic game. His decision making was brilliant, and his distribution/set-up play absolutely fantastic. Then add in a ridiculous work rate/stamina and you have a guy that turn a game on it's head.

The current version of Newcastle simply cannot play with this Villa side. I expect a convincing home win here, with 2nd half goals. Villa have the highest goals per game (2nd half) in the Premier league at home.

Home Win & Over 2.5 : Odds 2.1

WBA are becoming a typical Allerdyce team. They lost 1-0 to Man United (I think Fenandes dubious penalty  before Allerdyce), and got away draws at Liverpool and Man City. So this was not an unexpected result. My feeling is Allerdyce would not have taken the job if he knew Albion could not escape relegation. I had the WBA win  at odds of 6. Wolves cannot sell the likes of Jota, lose Jimenez and not get in replacements.

Leeds United v Brighton 16/01/2021

Leeds will survive this season, playing a brand of football that is entertaining. At least they give it a go, and won't die wondering.

Brighton play semi-decent football. Pretty well organised at the back, but so totally toothless up front. If they carry on doing this in the 2nd half of the season, Fulham (and WBA) will probably go past them and they will be relegated. They need to open the purse strings and buy a striker that can finish chances and score goals... or be relegated! I see more of the same against a strong running Leeds side. Pretty patterns, huffing and puffing with no end-product. I don't think Brighton score here, and they probably lose a close game 1-0 or 2-0.

Home Win : Odds 2.2
 
 
Leicester v Southampton 16/01/2021

Leicester will look back at their home form this season and wonder how they lost to Everton, Fulham, Aston Villa and West Ham. They have just 2 clean sheets in 8 games.

Saints on the road are a tough nut to crack. They are undefeated in 7away league games. They also have a problem keeping clean sheets with just 1 away CS this season. Not much between these teams, but Sainst are yet to play a really good 90 minutes. Also, that 9-0 thumping be Leicester, should still be burning them. Hasenhuttl (no umlaut available), should have no trouble motivating his team here. Ings makes a big difference to this Saints team. An any time goal scorer looks a decent bet, as he probably be the penalty taker as well. Should make for interesting viewing.

Away Win : Odds 4.75

I really struggle to make sense of the league so far this season. Liverpool at home look invincible. Man United on the road are getting it done.
Leicester v Man United
Have been really impressed with United in the last couple of games. They were very good against Leeds, getting off to a flyer and winning easily. Most had really good games. OK, Leicester won at Spurs but Tottenham, contrary to popular belief, are not very good. Forget about poor old Dele Ali ... Jose needs to take a look at himself. Spurs are still playing a version of negative, dour, let's stop the opponent football. Why not just go all out and outscore them and win?
Are Leicester that good? In my opinion no, they are about as good as they were last year. I think if Man United come out firing (which they did against Leeds and Everton), they could blow this Leicester side off the park. An early goal and the flood gates open here. What I like about United is that they are finally losing their over-dependence on Fernandes. The more players that score goals the better balanced the team is.
Suddenly they are looking confident, with belief. The ability to pass and move through the press is now there, and players look far more settled in their roles.
I think United could win 1-3 or 1-4 here, but an early goal is critical. If Leicester have to chase the game they could get buried!
Arsenal v Chelsea
This Chelsea team is so talent packed it is crazy. They have a squad that is jammed with super players. For whatever reason (my feeling is lack of on-field leadership), they are under performing. The last 2 results (both losses) against Wolves and Everton were stinkers. To give up 3 goals and 2 points against WBA is ridiculous. Lampard should be playing Giroud. With Cavani, probably the two best headers of a ball in the EPL. He gives them an aerial threat which is just missing when he is on the subs bench.
I really expect this team to bounce back, especially those guys playing for their Chelsea careers, and give Arsenal a real beating. Quality wise these teams are miles apart, but scoring goals and winning is never straight forward. Chelsea get an early goal here, and it probably a knockout blow. Hard to look beyond a Chelsea win, with goals.
 
 

Something really strange going on in the league this season. Most teams are defending quite poorly.
Man City are winning ugly, not playing particularly well.
Tottenham are playing Jose negative ball, which is a style that just does not suite a squad full of excellent players. Open the gates, let them play. DO you really want Kane and Son tracking back ... or scoring goals? Last two games 4 goals conceded just 1 scored. Forget Mo's comments on the Liverpool game. They were dominated and deserved to lose it.
Man United had a dream game against Leeds. The 2 goals in 5 minute start settled the game, and made Leeds chase. Perfect! But at least Ole did not go defensive. I think he knows that they can't defend, and the best form of defense is attack.
Liverpool, even without van Dijk, look like the best defensive team of the top 5. 
Chelsea have an unbelievable squad, full of quality, but they are not good defensively. They keep giving up sloppy goals, and dropping points that they should not. Can they keep a clean sheet against West Ham today. Methinks not!  I quite like the away double chance on West Ham today.

Something really strange going on in the league this season. Most teams are defending quite poorly.
Man City are winning ugly, not playing particularly well.
Tottenham are playing Jose negative ball, which is a style that just does not suite a squad full of excellent players. Open the gates, let them play. DO you really want Kane and Son tracking back ... or scoring goals? Last two games 4 goals conceded just 1 scored. Forget Mo's comments on the Liverpool game. They were dominated and deserved to lose it.
Man United had a dream game against Leeds. The 2 goals in 5 minute start settled the game, and made Leeds chase. Perfect! But at least Ole did not go defensive. I think he knows that they can't defend, and the best form of defense is attack.
Liverpool, even without van Dijk, look like the best defensive team of the top 5. 
Chelsea have an unbelievable squad, full of quality, but they are not good defensively. They keep giving up sloppy goals, and dropping points that they should not. Can they keep a clean sheet against West Ham today. Methinks not!  I quite like the away double chance on West Ham today.

Something really strange going on in the league this season. Most teams are defending quite poorly.
Man City are winning ugly, not playing particularly well.
Tottenham are playing Jose negative ball, which is a style that just does not suite a squad full of excellent players. Open the gates, let them play. DO you really want Kane and Son tracking back ... or scoring goals? Last two games 4 goals conceded just 1 scored. Forget Mo's comments on the Liverpool game. They were dominated and deserved to lose it.
Man United had a dream game against Leeds. The 2 goals in 5 minute start settled the game, and made Leeds chase. Perfect! But at least Ole did not go defensive. I think he knows that they can't defend, and the best form of defense is attack.
Liverpool, even without van Dijk, look like the best defensive team of the top 5. 
Chelsea have an unbelievable squad, full of quality, but they are not good defensively. They keep giving up sloppy goals, and dropping points that they should not. Can they keep a clean sheet against West Ham today. Methinks not!  I quite like the away double chance on West Ham today.

If I was taking 1 bet this year, it would be for WBA to stay up under Allerdyce. He is putting a "never having been relegated" record on the line here. He is pretty confident they can survive, or he would never have taken the job in the first place. Also, most of his earnings (not that he needs more) will come from survival bonuses, but it's not about the money at this stage. More a middle finger to those non-believers! 
 
 

So another weekend of football is on us. Two or three things to note from this hectic schedule with games coming fast and faster.
1) Technical  will start to dominate work rate. Teams with technically superior players will dominate, as teams legs start to fade.
2) The big teams and big squads have a huge advantage. For example at Man United. Not much difference between McTominay and Matic, Shaw or Telles, Greenwood or Martial. 
3) It is far easier to defend than score goals, when the legs get heavy. I expect goals to dry up for most teams and would be leaning more and more towards under 2.5 goals than over.
Arsenal will get drilled at Everton. Everton coming off two great results, while Arsenal just look lost.
Getting ready for the Southampton Man City kick off. I expect a Saints win against a miss-firing City team. I really enjoy watching Oriol Romeu. Just so solid, never makes a mistake. I wish United would buy him. Danny Ings to find his scoring boots here.
Man United v Leeds. 
All the makings of a high scoring game here. United will probably concede, but I expect them to run out at least 2 goal winners, against such an open Leeds side. Leeds just play the most naive football. Way too open at the back. It plays perfectly into the fast break, Man United game. I would be backing Rashford to score here, and probably Fernades with a penalty. I like the 3-1, 4-1 scoreline and definitely the home win and over 2.5 goals here.
 
 

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

Man United v Man CIty
United, at home have been a disaster this season. They are just starting games so slowly. In 5 home league games they have scored just 1 first half goal. They have just 3 goals in total which is ridiculous. Only Burnley and Sheffield United have scored fewer goals. Flying by the seat of their pants for a few weeks, the league position is artificial. Crazy games against Brighton, Southampton and West Ham where they picked up a very unlikely 9 points. Then throw in a questionable penalty against WBA. You could easily take away 9 points, and then they (along with Arsenal) are not looking so hot.

I have changed my direction totally based on Tuesday night's champions league display from United. This is a team that simply cannot defend. Liepzig caught the back 7 cold twice in 15 minutes. United were an absolute shambles. Liepzig moved the ball quickly, and crossed it quickly. The Man U defense was at 6's and 7's.. But, after two years in charge Solksjaer is still chopping away like a sous-chef, with a different formation every week. How is it possible that you bring on Williams, Taunzebe and Fosu-Mensah when you are chasing the game?
With United giving up goals for fun, and Solksjaer simply not having much of a clue as what to do, there can only be one result here. And City are finally waking up. If they get an early goal here I think United could get embarrassed. My feeling (as a 45 year Man United fan), is that Solksjaer has taken this team as far as he can. 

United are 4th or 5th but with a tiny bit of bad luck, they could be 16th in the table. Forget any of the longshot odds here. This team cannot live with Man City and will get beaten quite easily.

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

Man United v Man CIty
United, at home have been a disaster this season. They are just starting games so slowly. In 5 home league games they have scored just 1 first half goal. They have just 3 goals in total which is ridiculous. Only Burnley and Sheffield United have scored fewer goals. Flying by the seat of their pants for a few weeks, the league position is artificial. Crazy games against Brighton, Southampton and West Ham where they picked up a very unlikely 9 points. Then throw in a questionable penalty against WBA. You could easily take away 9 points, and then they (along with Arsenal) are not looking so hot.

I have changed my direction totally based on Tuesday night's champions league display from United. This is a team that simply cannot defend. Liepzig caught the back 7 cold twice in 15 minutes. United were an absolute shambles. Liepzig moved the ball quickly, and crossed it quickly. The Man U defense was at 6's and 7's.. But, after two years in charge Solksjaer is still chopping away like a sous-chef, with a different formation every week. How is it possible that you bring on Williams, Taunzebe and Fosu-Mensah when you are chasing the game?
With United giving up goals for fun, and Solksjaer simply not having much of a clue as what to do, there can only be one result here. And City are finally waking up. If they get an early goal here I think United could get embarrassed. My feeling (as a 45 year Man United fan), is that Solksjaer has taken this team as far as he can. 

United are 4th or 5th but with a tiny bit of bad luck, they could be 16th in the table. Forget any of the longshot odds here. This team cannot live with Man City and will get beaten quite easily.

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

Another weekend of football after an International break. WARNING! Minefield Ahead.

Players come back from these International breaks, with no momentum. It seems like they are doing a lot other than playing football. Most look sluggish, and these post-international break games, seem to be played at a snails pace. I simply don't like over 2.5 goal bets in these games, as goals in general tend to dry up.

Will a rejuvenated Pep fire City up again? Has Everton's bubble burst? Will Solksjaer stop playing overly defensive formations against weak teams? Let's see what's on the menu the EPL weekend.

The early Saturday kickoff is between Newcastle and Chelsea. For me a no contest, Chelsea win.
It's a perfect matchup for them. A semi open game where top players will dominate good players. Not much value in the 5 to 10 odds for a Chelsea win but it's OK.
I feel that the Over 2.5 is risky, because Chelsea are getting better defensively every week. They will get it together and they will click, especially with a new, solid goalkeeper.

I wouldn't go reaching for things here, and at odds of  1.55+ for the away win are decent. Chelsea have too many guns here, the squad is full of quality!
 
Tottenham v Man City
For me a very tough game to call. I expect a similar kind of result to the Man CIty / Liverpool game. Gotta be wary of Mourinho in these big games. He always goes cautious and never lets the dogs out. Under pressure people revert to type, and his way in these big games in defend, and stop the opponent. I see huffing and puffing but not many goals here. City look strangely flat to me. David Silva is a huge miss and is not replaceable.  I think Tottenham at odds of 3.9 for the home win are decent value here.

Another weekend of football after an International break. WARNING! Minefield Ahead.

Players come back from these International breaks, with no momentum. It seems like they are doing a lot other than playing football. Most look sluggish, and these post-international break games, seem to be played at a snails pace. I simply don't like over 2.5 goal bets in these games, as goals in general tend to dry up.

Will a rejuvenated Pep fire City up again? Has Everton's bubble burst? Will Solksjaer stop playing overly defensive formations against weak teams? Let's see what's on the menu the EPL weekend.

The early Saturday kickoff is between Newcastle and Chelsea. For me a no contest, Chelsea win.
It's a perfect matchup for them. A semi open game where top players will dominate good players. Not much value in the 5 to 10 odds for a Chelsea win but it's OK.
I feel that the Over 2.5 is risky, because Chelsea are getting better defensively every week. They will get it together and they will click, especially with a new, solid goalkeeper.

I wouldn't go reaching for things here, and at odds of  1.55+ for the away win are decent. Chelsea have too many guns here, the squad is full of quality!
 
Tottenham v Man City
For me a very tough game to call. I expect a similar kind of result to the Man CIty / Liverpool game. Gotta be wary of Mourinho in these big games. He always goes cautious and never lets the dogs out. Under pressure people revert to type, and his way in these big games in defend, and stop the opponent. I see huffing and puffing but not many goals here. City look strangely flat to me. David Silva is a huge miss and is not replaceable.  I think Tottenham at odds of 3.9 for the home win are decent value here.

Newcastle vs Chelsea
The Premier League is back baby! The international break has delivered mixed results for all of us on here no matter which nation you hail from but it's great to be back into the swing of domestic football. Newcastle host Chelsea is the first game of the weekend in the English top flight in a 12:30pm GMT kick-off on Saturday afternoon from St James' Park.
Newcastle fans will probably be generally and reluctantly satisfied with how this season has gone so far. The Magpies are sat in 13th place and 8 points off the relegation zone but consistency is a problem with the team only winning 1 of their last 4 league matches. The 2-0 loss to Southampton away was a disappointing final game before the international break and they'll be looking to bounce back here. A big blow for the Toon Army is that top scorer Callum Wilson could be ruled out with a hamstring injury. Miguel Almiron only came back from international duty with Paraguay last night too so he's not certain to start. Home form is far better this season though with the team winning 2 of their last 3 home league games. Their record against teams above them has also been decent with the club only losing 1 of their 5 games against those sides. Defence remains a concern though. It's been no clean sheet in 7 league games and only Manchester United have conceded more goals at home in the league.
Chelsea are starting to purr nicely now with the team going 11 games undefeated in all competitions. The signing of Edouard Mendy in goal has instilled a new sense of confidence throughout the team with the former Rennes keeper only conceding 2 goals in his 8 starts so far. The Blues are now in 5th place and just 3 points off the pace of the league leaders Leicester. Frank Lampard has seen his team go unbeaten in their away league games and with their 20 goals scored so far they are the Premier League's top scorers. Timo Werner will become the first Chelsea player to score in 5 consecutive matches since Didier Drogba back in 2009 if he manages to back a goal in this game. Hakim Ziyech is also a player to consider as an anytime scorer with the former Ajax man being involved in 4 goals for Chelsea in his two appearances for them so far.
This could be a hard dose of reality for Newcastle in this game. It's probably fair to say that they've relied heavily on Wilson's 6 goals this season to get them the points they've earned. Yes, they have done better against the higher placed sides but this Chelsea team is starting to move into full flow. I would be surprised if we didn't see a solid away victory here.
Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.30 with Boylesports
Chelsea to Win to Nil @ 2.70 with BetVictor

Everton v Man United
Here I am a lifelong Man United fan, hoping that United lose today. Ole may be a nice guy, but he is as far out of his league as David Moyes was. Look at where Liverpool were before Klopp, or Man City before Pep. If you want to win, and be a top club, you need a top manager. More importantly, you need the right personality fit, when that magic just happens.
Everyone says Pochettino has not won anything, but there are only three things worth winning. The league, the Champions League and Champions League qualification. Well, the league looks a 4 way tussle between Man CIty, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. Reagrdless, there is only 1 winner and 19 'losers'.
Champions League is a lottery. Everything has to go your way.  Spurs were in the final. That's pretty close. 
So CL qualification, is not so easy most seasons. Last year United qualified with 66 points. Laughable, but Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs were as bad or worse than they were. (David Moyes got 64 points in his season and United came 7th). Poch got Spurs in the big comp year after year at Spurs. It is a solid, strong achievement, and must not be overlooked, at a time they were spending on a new stadium.
What's left ... FA and League cup, ah please. van Gaal won a FA cup and got fired almost immediately. For a big club, those are the minor prizes, for the reserve squad.
So Ole at the wheel ( thanks for that priceless little gem Rio). United lurch from a surprising win, to rancid nothingness, in the blink of an eye. Week after week you simply don't know what jumps outta the box with this team. The reality is that they are a 1 trick pony. Counter-attack or bust! 
The big problem is that they wish to stick with Lindelof, who is simply not up to the task. Taunzebe had a great game against PSG, and he gets benched. Seriously! Play him and stick by him, and give him a run of games. They have a gem here, and have thrown it in the coal shed.
Taunzebe solves a lot of problems. It let's United play one holding midfielder, instead of 2. This let's them compete in midfield, and helps link play up to the forwards. You can't select a team that is essentially 4 center backs, 2 full backs, no mid field (2 overrun lost souls ... choose any 2), and 2 forwards who are totally adrift.  It just creates a disjointed mess (as seen in all 4 of United's league games at home). 
After my rant, I expect Everton to win here.  I would be surprised if they attack the right side of United's defense, considering Shaw is so weak on the left. I am surprised that Everton are still conceding goals for fun. I think in 6 league games they have conceded 2 , 5 times.  So for me goals oare on the menu, with 2 teams struggling to defend.
OVER 2.5 GOALS HERE at odds of 1.75