neilovan

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.
Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.
Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)
Brooksby to beat Cuevas
Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).
Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and
Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.
 
There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).
I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.
I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

I think Swaitek to win just looks so solid. What it it now ... 27 matches undefeated?  Nobody can touch her at the moment

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

For my system I am not betting sets or handicaps. Just straight low priced favorites to win with certain conditions.

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

So it's kind of interesting. If you take French open 2021, ATP with favorites win odds between between 0.02 and 0.13 you get odds around even money on a -5.5 game handicap bet. But there were 22 winners and only 5 losers in 2021, and this type of bet would have won money every year of the last 6 years. Looking at Ruud today, -5.5 is even money to cover, and the the probability is that he will do it. I will change the viz to let a user select all tournaments, and choose a surface, and it will show the results for all clay court matches (when selected)

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.
Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes
Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
 

They also understand the game totally, so they are very selective regarding which tournaments they play, what points they are defending etc etc. Very similar to a golf handicap cheat who knows exactly what he can score in every round, to still maintain a high handicap.

Also no hunger, they are too well off financially. Just going through the motions, collecting 250K a year and playing out the last few years.

Fognini had an injury time out. Heaven forbid that one of my runners retires when losing. I have bet against Radacanu 3 times and every time she was losing, she quit the match. It's a joke that a journeyman like Kokkinakis wins here ... his game is so limited.
 
Question: How many points will Radacanu lose when she gets beaten 1st or 2nd round at the US open? I think she got 40 from the qualifiers and 2000 for winning, but if she cannot defend her win (as expected), she could lose close to 1900 points. WOuld put her down in the 60 world ranking bracket.

I think I was trying to say that he probably looks up to where Zverev is, at a similar age.  But no big deal. Baez and Fognini need to get into gear ?