Blazing Bailey
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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 9th Hexham 300 - Sam Patch 9/2 Bet365 BOG This race looks to be full of horses that wont like the heavy ground one bit which limits the field quite considerably. The selection has only ever won on soft and was runner up over this C&D on this ground previously. The form of that race is pretty solid with the horses around doing well since & I think he has more to come in these conditions. He was a better price last night, but 9/2 still looks like value to me.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 8th of June Goodwood 800 - Party Line 5/1 Bet365 Win I watched this horse have one of the worst possible trips (handy runner who missed break and got squeezed to the back, hampered & raced 3 or 4 wide around the turn and look to be bearing down on the winner only to just run out of steam in the last few hundred yards, which is more impressive considering the ground would have been a little firmer than he would have liked. The wetter the better for this one, and with it forecasted to tip it down all day, 5/1 looks a big price even if he is up in class against a couple of decent rivals. EDIT: Just realised he isnt even up in class!
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 7th Uttoxeter - 735 - Quazy De Joie 5/2 1pt Win Bet365 BOG In a fairly average race this one looks as though he has the better form in the bank. He shaped as if he needed the run LTO so as long as he is primed for this then he could take some beating. The rest all look to have some major question marks, whether it be the trip (Cerium), the ground (Solway Bay) or just general form (Wellforth & Officer De Reserve). The price is poor and while I will wait til the morning for my own bet, I wont have the time to type this up then, even if it is an evening meeting!
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ May 2012 Unfortunately I'm going to be away in the middle of june so there is no real point in me competing in the knockout comp on this occasion. At least this way it gives the 1st standby some time to prepare! Ha Good luck to those involves!
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Re: bbotd tuesday 5th June Yarmouth 430 - Barwick 11/4 Bet365 BOGCan only do a quick write up today as I'm on my phone and don't have my notes to hand. Therefore from memory this horse recorded to good TopSpeed on or around the 80 mark, of which one of them was his win here over this distance. The ground shouldn't be a problem (whatever it ends up being!).
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 3rd
Came home like a freight train, but the race was an absolute mess & I dont think JOB helped his mounts chances by trying to go up the inside before switching wide not that I think it would have been enough to win such was the nature of the race. Definitely one to keep an eye on next time, but unfortunately I think all value would have been drained out by then!15.15 Chantilly: Imperial Monarch' date= 11/2 Ladbrokes, 1pt win Imperial Monarch won impressively lto in a group 3 race when he ran isolated and had to run further than his rivals. He still won by nearly two lengths. That was run on very heavy ground but he won very nicely. The runner up, Thought Worthy, won a listed event nto and ran a good race in the Derby yesterday. He has a decent draw in stall nine and the ground shouldn't be a problem. This is trainer Aidan O'Brien's only runner of the day and his talented son Joseph travels to France for this one ride. -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 3rd Fontwell 400 -Blue Hills 5/2 Ladbrokes This horse looks firmly on the upgrade, having won two on the bounce prior to a decent 2nd in the mud LTO. The winner & 3rd places have won since making this horse look a very solid bet in a poor contest.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Cracking tipping CPO & also SER for a great shout on Bajan Tyrest which won so well when he eventually found some space! Awful day for me, 3 seconds (all to win), the **** break from Party Line that The Saint mentioned above (who did so well to still make 3rd), and I backed Astrology in the w/out market only to be pipped by Main Sequence's nostril hair!
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 2nd Musselbrough 330 - Maastrict 7/1 Bet365 BOG This one ran a good TopSpeed LTO in a race where he was on his own for the last 5 furlongs as the others raced on the other side of the track. Considering that was also his first run of the season, I am expecting this Mark Johnson to come on for it and give a good showing here. My main concern is the ground, and I was very surprised to see there is still some juice in the ground in Scotland considering I have barely seen a rain cloud for the last fortnight down here in the south. The track should also suit his prominant style and 7/1 is a good price IMO.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 1st of June Epsom 325 - Roayh 14/1 Win Bet365 BOGThe reason I picked thjs horse is similar to why I picked Diverting yesterday. They both tie into the same race and ran a quick TS time of which the form looks solid. This one came 2nd in that race and with the Godolphin yard starting to pick up some form, I am hoping he will outrun his odds. Futhermore this horse has ran a decent race around Goodwood last year, so that at least gives the hint that he should be able to deal with the track better than some of the others in the field.
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Sandown 855 - Diverting 12/1 Bet365 BOG I am very surprised to see this one priced up so big! This horse ticks all the boxes, C&D winner, loves the quicker ground, hold up style will suit the track, clocked some quick Topspeed times with solid form as well (including at the track). I think its probably best to ignore her last run as not only was it her first run back but the ground was against her up in class. Back down in this grade she might just take some beating.
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Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May Windsor 840 - Anton Dolin 9/2 Bet365 I think this horse should have a great chance based on his Topspeed figures on quicker ground. He finished off last year in great form, and ran as well as can be expected on his comeback LTO given the underfoot conditions. Windsor is a fairly sharp track which his running style should suit and although Im not sure what to expect from the draw, I would be a little disappointed if he didnt go close. Of the other runners The Cayterers takes my eye at an ok price based on his 3rd at this track over slightly shorter. He stayed on that day suggesting this trip could suit and he looks like he could be well handicapped. I prefer to see the horses I pick have a run, so I will pass this time.
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 27th I thought Samitar was worth a shout but I certainly didnt expect her to win that convincingly! Almost didnt put it up either, I had started a write up for a different horse & then changed my mind! Glad I did now!
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 27th Curragh - Samitar 25/1 Bet365 BOG This is more out of hope than judgement if I am honest. Im not convinced by the form of Homecoming Queen in the English Guineas and while she won that brilliantly I certainly cant be having her at evens this time. Having said that, there isnt much that sticks out at me, and I am making a speculative selection on Samitar regaining her good ground 2yo form, where she ran some quick times finishing behind Lyric Of Light twice over a mile & then winning a big prize at Newmarket. The form is certainly questionable but the TopSpeeds themselves look pretty reliable and at 25/1 I will have a speculative punt!
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Re: bbotd friday Towcester 825 - Cecily Parsley 7/4 Bet365 BOG Not exactly a surprising choice, but I fancy next to nothing in the many races that preceed it. He won really well here LTO and previous runs have suggested that this trip will suit perfectly. Being out the weights doesnt help but given I dont think many of these are in form, and the other two prominent in the market appear slightly over rated based on their recent runs, but I wouldnt rule them out as such.
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Re: BBOTD - 24th May 2012 - Thu Goodwood 235 - Jupiter Storm - 14/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes BOG I am selecting this one mainly based on its convincing win at Brighton, which I believe is a track not too disimilar to Goodwood. He clocked an impressive TopSpeed figure and the form of that looks pretty decent. He disappointed me in his more recent run at Newmarket but it isnt without hope that he could do better tomorrow having refused to settle last time on ground that would have probably been too soft. 14/1 looks to big to leave alone.
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 22nd Towcester 715 - Jolly Boys Outing 7/2 1pt Win Bet365 BOG This horse has done pretty well around this track recently placing 3 times and winning once in the space of a year. The form of a couple of his recent runs is also pretty decent, especially his Exeter 2nd where the winner & third have gone in since. The ground & trip will suit perfectly and while there could be a couple of potential dangers in the field, JBO must have a great chance. As for some of the other runners, I think Rio De Garde has probably been put up way too much for his win on different ground in a weaker contest, South O'the border will plug on but probably be out classed and Like Ice has a decent shout on the pick of his form especially with McCoy on board.
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Re: Flat Racing May 19th
Gutted for Rewarded as he was travelling really nicely and got flattened by one of the other runners when he was trying to get through a gap. I did have the saver on Expense Claim so not all is lost!305 - Rewarded 8/1 2pt Win Bet365 Ticks all my boxes, good TS & RPR rating, conditions to suit and also a value price. I think the favourite is over rated (as Paddy Power also seem to as they have got the money back special on him) and while there are a few dangers (especially Expenses Claim who I may have a saver on), I would disappointed if the selection was right up there. -
Re: Flat Racing May 19th
Bloody hell that was close! Ended up at the other side of the track from where he was drawn and Frankie got him up by a nose hair!Newmarket 245 - Mince 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 & Heraaft NR In a pattern that is probably becoming quite similar with my flat bets, I believe these two have the best recent TS ratings in the race & the conditions look ideal for them both, especially at a course they have both done well at. I have Mince slightly ahead but according to ATR, the draw is better for Heraaft. This is quite a competitive race and other I like the look of our Pea Shooter who I think will probably need the run, Kimbali who I dont think will like the ground & Dark Castle who could be thrown in here based on the TS of 89 he acquired at Kempton but I doubt he will transfer that to the turf, especially with his sire having a better strike rate on the sand. -
Re: Brindisi Breeze From what I have read he managed to jump out of his paddock at night and ran in front of a tanker! Terrible news for such a game and talented horse.
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Re: Flat Racing May 19th
Thought he was just going to get his nose in front there but got tired right at the death. Decent run though and should come on for it.Newbury Newmarket 215 - Rugged Cross 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 I was very surprised to see such decent odds for this horse considering it ran to a very good TS LTO of which the form also looks very solid. Obviously it wont be an easy race to win but in my eyes he has as much of a chance as the market principals. My main worry is regards to how fit he is for this race in comparison to the majority who have had a run but 6/1 compensates for that. -
Re: Your biggest betting disaster/**** up!?
Couldnt agree with you more! I have more money on multiples of some description that any other bet! I lost a bucket full at Cheltenham because of it and havent done one since. Even when I have thought about it, I have checked the result and generally always find that one gets beaten!Can't believe that many of these 'disasters' have come from multiples! It kind of explains everything you need to know :ok -
Re: Jumps Racing * Saturday 19th May Uttoxeter 800 - Thedeboftheyear 12/1 Boylesports This is a game little mare who ran really well at Taunton 3 runs back to bravely fight off her challengers. The form of that race isnt brilliant, but they have all ran around their marks for the most part. Her two runs since have been on ground that wouldnt have suited, and despite that her run at Cheltenham in a competitive race was pretty decent over a trip that would be a little short as well. She is back down in grade & back at the right trip on ground she should relish. Providing her fall LTO doesnt knock her confidence she should run well.
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Re: Jumps Racing * Saturday 19th May Uttoxeter 655 - Farleigh House 11/2 Ladbrokes In a race where a lot of these have big question marks to answer or are returning from a break it may pay off to back the ultra consistent Farleigh House. Despite being generally consistent, he wasnt LTO so he has a question to answer in that regard, but his form of the two runs before that look solid. The winner & 3rd in the Stratford race over slightly further have both gone on to win again, and the 2nd in FH's 3rd over this C&D has also gone on to win since. I do generally have concerns over horses that always seem to place because it generally means that the handicapper has them or that they have some temperament issues but in these circumstances I think this Farleigh House has a chance, and as long as the ground stays good he should run his race but may ultimately find one too good.
Flat season - Too difficult to profit?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I was thinking the same thing as you at the start of the season but gradually by sticking to my principles and not getting carried away by hype or silly bets I have continued to have a decent level of success. Reading what other people put on here is also a big help, especially in races you dont do so well in. My 2yo strike rate has gone up after looking at what certain people on here have put and what they look out for.