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Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

    BBOTD Sunday 4th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Carlisle 310 - Rolecarr 14/1 William Hill BOG This horse must have a decent chance in an average race tomorrow and the price looks to big to leave alone (Betvictor have him at 8's!). He has already had a race this season to blow away the cobwebs and he shaped nicely enough, suggesting that he would be better for it. He ran a couple of decent races last season after his win at Kelso and he will relish the testing conditions over this trip.

    BBOTD Saturday 3rd of November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of November Ascot 3.45 - Kalellshan 5/1 Paddy Power BOG I have written this about 4 different times for 4 different horses which shows how unconfident I am about tomorrows runners! I have finally decided to settle on this one because the form looks very solid (beat 2 NTO winners convincingly) and the way he jumped fluently from the front and dictated matters to the rest of the field was impressive. He looks very progressive and he has had a run already this season (albeit 60+ days ago).

    BBOTD Friday 2nd November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Newmarket 210 - Rios Rosanna 9/1 bet365 BOG I have backed this one a couple of times with no joy, but the conditions have never been as perfect as they will be tomorrow for her. Back against her own sex, dropped in grade, on soft ground and over 12f this horse should be difficult to beat I would be disappointed if she didnt make the frame. The one main danger that I can see is Require who I also backed LTO and she still has a progressive look to her in conditions she will relish. However, priced up as they are, the selection is clearly better value but no doubt I will end up backing them both!

    BBOTD Wednesday 31st of October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st of October Haydock 3.55 - San Telm 7/1 Bet365 BOG This horse has been slowly progressing so far in his short hurdling career and with conditions set to suit tomorrow and I hoping he can finally put it all together and get another win on the board. The form of a couple of his runs is working out quite well and the gelding didnt do too badly LTO at Fontwell where he got badly hampered but stayed on again for a fairly close third. The winner of that race has gone on to place of 135 so there is a strong possibility that this one is very well handicapped. Furthermore the trainer & jockey have a good strike rate together.

    BBOTD Tuesday 30th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Tuesday 30th Taunton 200 - Jewellery 8/1 Paddy Power BOG If you ignore this horses last run on heavy ground, the form of this mares first two runs for Victor Dartnall look pretty good in the context of this race and there could be even more to come. She needs another small step up, but that certainly isnt out of the question with the trip & ground looking fine. She also has a fitness edge over a lot of these and there isnt a great deal in opposition with many of them either very exposed or over-rated.

    BBOTD Sunday 28th Oct

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sunday 28th Oct

    Aintree 1.10 - Wyse Hill Teabags 10/1 Bet365 BOG Very surprised to see the early prices on this market with Vendor at 7/4 and the rest at 10-1 or bigger. I certainly respect the form that Vendor has in the bag but that price is mad and there is definitely some value in this race. I should probably go EW with this one, but considering I need to make up some quick ground its win all the way! This horse ran in some pretty decent races last season and did pretty well when you look at how the form has worked out. His run at Haydock has been well and truly franked (3rd horse won at the Chelt & Aintree festival in good handicaps & the narrow winner was mixing it in group races before and after - rated 155 at the time). His run before that was also pretty decent & the winner of that also won NTO. His two runs since then have been slightly disappointing. He pulled up on soft here, possibly due to the ground & he then unshipped on his chase debut on his first run this season (in the process of running well at the time). He will have the fitness edge and if he runs to the form of them big handicap placings he could take all the beating. Ground, trip & class are all fine.
    Bloody NR!

    BBOTD Sunday 28th Oct

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Aintree 1.10 - Wyse Hill Teabags 10/1 Bet365 BOG Very surprised to see the early prices on this market with Vendor at 7/4 and the rest at 10-1 or bigger. I certainly respect the form that Vendor has in the bag but that price is mad and there is definitely some value in this race. I should probably go EW with this one, but considering I need to make up some quick ground its win all the way! This horse ran in some pretty decent races last season and did pretty well when you look at how the form has worked out. His run at Haydock has been well and truly franked (3rd horse won at the Chelt & Aintree festival in good handicaps & the narrow winner was mixing it in group races before and after - rated 155 at the time). His run before that was also pretty decent & the winner of that also won NTO. His two runs since then have been slightly disappointing. He pulled up on soft here, possibly due to the ground & he then unshipped on his chase debut on his first run this season (in the process of running well at the time). He will have the fitness edge and if he runs to the form of them big handicap placings he could take all the beating. Ground, trip & class are all fine.

    BBOTD Saturday 27th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 27th Newbury 345 - Blue Surf 7/1 Bet365 BOG I have watched this horse a few times with interest as I think he is potentially well handicapped but I always thought there was a couple better under the conditions so I left him alone. However, I finally think that tomorrow might just be his day, even if I am worried about a couple of the others. He ran well her last time, finishing the best of those who didnt run wide, and he was also in the process of running a decent race the time before at Ascot before getting severly hampered. He has ran on this sort of surface before, which is a worry but his breeding suggests he should relish softer conditions and his best performance came on the softest ground he has encountered. Furthermore I think this galloping track will suit and given the ground, the fact that he will stay a couple more furlongs is a bonus especially if it becomes a real test.

    BBOTD Friday 26th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 26th

    ANYA #4.35 Newbury# 7/1(Bet365) Ed Walkers Monsieur Bond filly handles heavy ground, stays the trip well and takes a drop in grade for this. Should be bang there. 1pt win
    Was tossing and turning between the one I picked and this. Great choice and a great price seeing as it started at 3-1!

    BBOTD Friday 26th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 26th Doncaster 4.25 - The Lock Master 4/1 Bet365 BOG This horse dug in LTO for a gritty win under very similar conditions to what he should face tomorrow. After the race the trainer reported that his gelding would come on a lot for the run, singling this race as the target. He comes out on top of my ratings and with the promise of more to come, I am a little surprised to see 4-1 available especially considering there isnt much else in the race.

    How to know when a hurdler will make a good chaser. Advice please

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: How to know when a hurdler will make a good chaser. Advice please

    The biggest problem you have with novice races is you never get an even playing field, by that i mean you could have 12 runners of which 10 of them have form in the book and the two unraced ones might be from Nicholls or Henderson yards and your basically cooked with an F. By the very nature of these races its like a conveyor belt all season with horses being introduced to the game and its very much a guessing game at times. I have done well over the years but it can be annoying when you have summed the race up to a tee only to get mugged by a first time out merchant. I often will back EW in these type of races just to cover myself to be honest but i do enjoy the task of sorting them out into different class categories which comes i handy to get an angle on the form across the novice divisions. I must admit i'm not into novice chases much these days and purely concentrate on the novice hurdlers and juveniles. (Stamina is the key to the juveniles, its the one main ingredient that wins many races for the young hurdlers).
    Thats an interesting insight that I will keep an eye on. With regards to these big yard hotshots, I guess you will tend to find that more often that not they are short(ish) favourites and therefore even if you backed them on fairly regular occasions you would be struggling to turn a profit. Of these novices with a couple of runs in the bank, do you try and make a judgement about what type of mark they are likely to be able to run to based on their previous form? I guess if you compare it to the flat, its a bit like the 2yo maidens. Generally im not that great with them either! :unsure

    How to know when a hurdler will make a good chaser. Advice please

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: How to know when a hurdler will make a good chaser. Advice please

    I still can't get my head around the whole sphere of jump racing. There seem to be a whole host of horses that are switching between hurdles and chase races... Sometimes their form translates and other times it doesn't... Am finding it a minefield as often these particular horses feature prominently at the front of the market which means I am finding it impossible to make a meaningful tissue on enough races. I really don't want to give up already and will probably take a fresh look from Paddy Power weekend. The other issue that is completely foxing me is the aged old problem of fallers and unseats. When horses are finishing respectable 3rds and 4ths but 20 odd lengths behind the winner, it's difficult/impossible to equate where one might have finished say 5 out when most of the field up with the pace are still going well and could easily win of finish a well beaten 6th.... I guess ultimatly, my approach is largely mathematical and reliant on ratings. I just don't think it's going to translate to the jumpers as I find it impossible to guage a horses fitness and readiness to win given that it may not have finished it's last race. Does seem like it would be easier to 'pull a fast one' given that Pulled Up is common place too. I'll just enjoy the spectacle I think... The form is impossible to me. That having been said, Good Luck to anyone that as any remote mastery of this Dark Art!! You have my complete respect and admiration! An example - Henry Hook in the 315 Ludlow - Has much better hurdle form than chase form and yet is favourite for a hcap chase today. Unseated last time in a chase and may have been involved in the finish?! WHO KNOWS?!?! My figures say 'lay', the market says it'd one to keep onside. Obviously, the sensible choice for me is to stay out - which I will but when this selection is taking out 20% of the 'book' it makes the rest of my tissue somewhat useless... There are nearly always at least one or 2 horses like this in a race. Open to any advice but I'm just concluding that it's not for me! I'm not really happy investing in what one might desribe as 'guesswork'... I hope that doesn't sound disrespectful to jumps fans - tis not my intention at all. I won't get bored or become ill disciplined but tis a quiet time of year for me with the flat season winding down and the AW form more reliable from December onwards imho....
    This is the trouble I feel I will have this jumps season. Generally I have been able to hold my own and make small profit, but having had a very good flat season mainly based on ratings it has confused what I used to do on the jumps. On the flat I can spend 10-15mins looking at a big handicap and come up with one or two who I think could win and generally they will run pretty well. Over the jumps the same amount of runners takes me bloody hours and I am still none the wiser. Im 'post-analysing' a lot of the races and having a little dabble at a couple when there isnt much on the flat and coincidentally I had a look at that Henry Hook race (and managed to pick the winner although I wasn't convinced enough to put any money on so it was only a moral victory :) ). Out of interest, how do people go about picking winners of these novice races whether it be over jumps or hurdles. Handicaps I can hold my own in generally, but novice races are a money pit and while I generally stay away I cant help but try and have a go at solving these unfathomable puzzles without even getting close! A 20ish length 3rd is the closest I have been in 10 races so far this season!

    BBOTD Thursday 25th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October Ludlow 3.45 - Citrus Mark - 8/1 Betfred BOG This horse won a couple of decent races at Worcester & Fontwell at around this trip earlier in the year, jumping nicely. He wasn't as good LTO over a longer trip and jumping poorly but still finished an 11L 5th in what was a decent race. The drop back to 16f should help and hopefully his fluent jumping returns. I can see arguement for a couple of the others but they look a bit short and in contrast 8-1 looks good value.

    BBOTD Wednesday 24th of October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 24th of October Newmarket 4.45 - No Poppy - 6/1 Betfred BOG (if they arent allowed 11/2 with Ladbrokes BOG) This is a horse in great form that clearly relishes these types of conditions. She has won in this class before and I am expexpecting another big run, especially with Frankie on board who may feel like he has a bit of point to prove.

    BBOTD Sunday 21st of October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sunday 21st of October Kempton 455 - Shooters Wood 3/1 Betvictor Ran well on his first start for Paul Nichols when coming second over 17f at Newton Abbot (C2) after a long break but didnt seem to enjoy the trip or the ground LTO when contesting a Listed race at the same course. Back down in trip and eased significantly in grade, I am expecting the rustiness to have been well and truly shaken off now and hopefully he should be involved at the finish. The big danger in my eyes is Giant O Murchu and I will probably back them both.

    BBOTD Saturday 20th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 20th October Cheltenham 340 - Balthazar King 10/1 Bet365 Won this race last year and also won in the cross country race at the festival so clearly loves the track. Needs good ground which it looks like he will get and his yard had a winner today and are adept are readying a horse after a break. This horse has a really good attitude as well and I will be a little surprised if he isnt up there at the finish.

    BBOTD Monday 15th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 15th October Windsor 4.10 - Perfect Pastime 16/1 EW - Bet365 I ended up with about 6 on my shortlist for this race which suggests it could be quite an open contest, however this horse is guarenteed to love the ground and the style of the track as well as being eased in grade from his last run. He looked like he went off a little too hard last time and considering that, it wasnt a bad run in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully he should be there or thereabouts.

    BBOTD - Wednesday 10th of Octoboer

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 10th of Octoboer Nottingham 430 - Cactus Valley - 7/1 William Hill Like CPO above, I fancy taking on the strong favourite and I think there are a couple in this race that represent value because the Gosden runner. Instead I am going for one of my favourite combinations of trainer jockey in Doyle & Charlton. The horse won well at Sandown despite being slightly hampered but disappointed next time out when the race wasnt run to suit. Im not sure how well the soft ground will suit, but the forecast looks dry tomorrow so hopefully it will be GS at worst. The track, the trip & draw should all be pretty decent for him here so Ill have my fingers crossed for a good run.

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