Blazing Bailey
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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey
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Re: BBotD April 1st Ascot 330 - Clarion Call 8/1 Stan James 1pt Win I think this horse is on a good mark judged on its previous runs and would have won well LTO if he didnt fall at one of the last couple of flights. I have doubts over a couple of the others shorter in the market and this horse has already beaten Creekside who re-opposes today despite being badly hampered. Conditions should suit & whilst this is more competitive than I would have liked, the price represents value in this field IMO.
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Ascot 330 – Clarion Call 15/2 2pt Win BetVictor & Orthodox Lad 11/1 1pt Win BetVictor This is a competitive looking race where I think 5 of them have realistic chances. The favourite Lexi’s Boy looks very short for what he has achieved and I imagine anyone backing the horse is hoping for the better ground to bring about more improvement, which I personally wouldn’t be confident of, especially not at the price! Creekside looks an improving type and I think his mark is about right, with the potential of quicker ground possibly helping out. For me though he is a bit quirky and again Im not confident that we will see the necessary improvement needed to win this. Both of the two I have picked look to be a couple of pounds ahead of their mark judged on the form of a couple of their previous runs and they both look as if this ground will be a plus. Orthodox Lad is on the drift a little which worries me and hence only the 1pt win but if all is well I think they both have a cracking chance at a good price. 405 – Fix The Rib 7/2 1pt Win Stan James & Cool Friend 7/2 1pt Win Bet365 This isn’t a great race in my mind and I simply think that these two have a little more to offer from their marks than the rest of the field. Fix The Rib looks to need a positive ride which he didn’t get at Newbury LTO and I suspect this mark will prove lenient. Cool Friend is a very game horse and was the only horse in the field to give Hunt Ball a race over a little further at Kempton & then going on to win at Sandown. Her mark hasn’t gone up too much and she might just be able to get her head in front again before the handicapper takes charge. 515 – Joseph Lister 16/1 0.5pt EW BetVictor, Imperial Circus 13/2 1pt Win Stan James & Kasbaldi 15/2 1pt Win BetVictor. This is a competitive race in my eyes with a few horses that have a solid chance of getting their head in front. Joseph Lister has been a little disappointing for such a powerful yard but there is a good chance the step up in distance and better ground will bring about some improvement. I have him fairly weighted at the moment so if these conditions do suit then I think he has a frame chance. Imperial Circus was not beaten that far LTO and would have been a lot closer if he had jumped the last better. The handicapper has increased his mark by 3lbs but that should be offset by the 3lb claimer on board for today’s race so should have a decent chance. Kasabaldi looks to have a couple of pounds in hand from my workings. He only just beat Whispering Jack who re-opposes today over a shorter trip, but while my selection has improved since then, the latter has gone backwards (albeit possibly down to ground etc). Obviously that means that WJ is much better weighted now BUT his 24f form isn’t as good as Kasabaldi’s and while I notice WJ has been well back over night, I still think my selection has the better chance. Of the others, Phare Isle looks to have a chance but has a poor win record and looks to be easily beaten by a more game horse & Tarvini looks to be a danger but Im not sure what he has beaten and his mark may over estimate him. Promishing Anshan could also be a danger back over hurdles but I would rather watch on this occasion.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March
Finally! Get in!545 – Ive Been Framed 8/1 BetVictor 1pt Win or 1pt EW This is a competitive race in my books with a couple having the potential to go close. The top weight Its Like That should go very close if its last run is anything to go by with the horse beating him going well NTO but seeing as he is 12 I cant see him mirroring that progression. The favourite North Stack is another that I fancy and I do have him ahead of his mark but I don’t like the price at the moment and will wait and see what its like tomorrow. Musical Wedge also looks on a decent mark but I think softer ground would suit this one and Thoresby is another that could threaten, although I think he could do with a couple more pounds dropping. That leaves me with my selection who I believe to have a few pounds in hand if reproducing his most recent run. He has won over hurdles off higher marks in the past (albeit on softer ground) and I think he has a chance but I will wait for the price in the morning as I believe it will probably drift a little. Also in this race Pistol Basc could be a threat but I am having trouble in working out the value of the form. -
Re: Saturday 31 March Flat Racing
Great shout! Won really well and finally got my first winner of the day on the board!4.55 Doncaster - 4pts win Qaraaba @ 8/1 (PP) -
Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Unsurprisingly Henok was disappointing as well. Certainly wasnt form to trust! Need the winner in the lucky last!
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Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Goldmeister backed but certainly didnt run like a horse that had a few lbs in hand. Doesnt bode well for my Henok bet!
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Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Not so good so far. Knight In Purple ran well and finished a half length 2nd which is a shame because I thought he had it in the bag and was probably travelling the best all the way round. Fentara hit every hurdle and despite being right in it with a couple of flights to go, was pulled up so something obviously wasnt right. Dont know if she would have beaten the winner but would have had a real good go. Could do with a couple of the other to come in now!
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Re: Saturday 31 March Flat Racing DON 315 - Man Of Action 1pt Win @ 16/1 Bet365 & Stevie Thunder 0.5pts EW @ 25/1 Bet365 This race is a minefield, but its one I could help having a look through! I think both of these horses could potentially have a few lbs in hand and if everything falls right then they might have a chance. Man of Action is an interesting one for me as he beat Eton Forever (who is ridiculously RP Spotlight's NAP of the meeting) with quite a lot in hand, and while my selection is worse off at the weights, he had loads in the tank that day and looks the better bet at the prices IMO. The one worry with Man of Action is his form since then. His didnt get a clear path in his next run and I am happy to forgive him that, but I do have question marks over his form in Dubai. At least he has been kept going though and should be fitter than a lot of these. Stevie Thunder has been placed against some much better rivals (rating wise) and although I do wonder the strength of the form I am willing to have an EW punt at the prices as conditions should suit.
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Stratford 355 – Knight In Purple 15/2 Bet365 2pt win In a race where I think a lot of the runners are overrated, I believe my selection has the best chance of running somewhere near to his mark. He is proven over the trip, on the ground and in this class and has the potential to run a big race. Spotlight have him as their NAP of the meeting and while I wouldn’t be that confident I would be very disappointed if he wasn’t right up there. 425 – Goldmeister 5/1 BetVictor 1pt Win The form of this horse’s previous race is standing up pretty well with the 3rd winning off 113 & the 4th placing off 116 with the selection 5 ½ lengths back in 6th. Therefore, I think his rating of 93 could be very generous and while I am cautious of the form that came before it, if he can repeat his previous run he must be bang there, not to mention with the extra distance playing to his strengths. The favourite Beattie Green also looks like an improver but he hasn’t shown the same level of form and Goldmeister is the better value even if I do think the price is a little on the low side. Uttoxeter 410 – Fentara 9/2 Bet365 3pt win This is my bet of the day as I believe his previous form shows him to have roughly 10lbs in hand of his current mark. I have slight concerns about the ground, having previously shown more of a liking to softer but I am willing to take that chance. There are a couple of other decent runners but IMO they need to show a lot more to beat my selection, although they may well be capable of such improvement. 445 – Henok 9/2 BetVictor 1pt Win The reason for choosing this horse is the same as Goldmeister’s above as Henok was the 5th placed horse in that race. He is now rated 102 which means he potentially has less in hand, but like the above horse, Henok should also improve for the step up in trip. I have a little bit of caution about the ground but hopefully that will prove unfounded. 545 – Ive Been Framed 8/1 BetVictor 1pt Win or 1pt EW This is a competitive race in my books with a couple having the potential to go close. The top weight Its Like That should go very close if its last run is anything to go by with the horse beating him going well NTO but seeing as he is 12 I cant see him mirroring that progression. The favourite North Stack is another that I fancy and I do have him ahead of his mark but I don’t like the price at the moment and will wait and see what its like tomorrow. Musical Wedge also looks on a decent mark but I think softer ground would suit this one and Thoresby is another that could threaten, although I think he could do with a couple more pounds dropping. That leaves me with my selection who I believe to have a few pounds in hand if reproducing his most recent run. He has won over hurdles off higher marks in the past (albeit on softer ground) and I think he has a chance but I will wait for the price in the morning as I believe it will probably drift a little. Also in this race Pistol Basc could be a threat but I am having trouble in working out the value of the form. I would also be tempted to put the first 4 in an EW lucky 15 for a small stake.
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Re: Flat Racing, Friday 30th March 2012
Ended up 3rd but what more annoying as I had the winner as a horse to follow previously but ignored it and it came in at 12/1! :cryLingfield 505 - Galicean 9/4 Betvictor I have only looked at one race due to time constraints but Galicean looks a very solid favourite in this contest and the form of his previous win and 2nd looks good. He has had a break since his last run but he was a good 2nd first time out last season so I dont see that being a problem. Its a competitive race with other also looking very unexposed but the form of this one is simply far stronger than the rest. -
Re: Flat Racing, Friday 30th March 2012 Lingfield 505 - Galicean 9/4 Betvictor I have only looked at one race due to time constraints but Galicean looks a very solid favourite in this contest and the form of his previous win and 2nd looks good. He has had a break since his last run but he was a good 2nd first time out last season so I dont see that being a problem. Its a competitive race with other also looking very unexposed but the form of this one is simply far stronger than the rest.
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Re: Flat v Jumps? Jumps for me, I find it much more exciting although thats mainly due to the build up of suspense & hoping that your horses gets a great leap at the last. With the sprints on the flat, you blink and its over and it annoys me how long the break is between each race and if I am at the course I tend to get a little bored. The thing I love about the jumps a lot more than the flat from a betting perspective its that it is much simpler! On the flat there are so many extenuating circumstances such as draw (which isnt consistent), pace, ground, surface, the stalls, traffic & different types of track. I know some of them effect jumps racing as well, but its to a far lesser extent.
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Re: Jump racing - Sunday 25th March 410 Hexham - La Pantera Rosa 9/2 1pt Win - William Hill This horse is now rated 94 having previously won off a mark of 102 at around todays trip. His recent run suggested a return to form wasnt far away and given the form of the yard I think he has a decent chance of scoring today. The favourite looks very short judged out what hes achieved and while he is less exposed Im not convinced of the form and the rest also have some fairly decent question marks against them.
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Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day!
I didnt understand it myself although Im not complaining! EDIT: Iv only just seen the price you got it at as well! That will teach me to pick all my horses the night before!nice winner fratellino ......couldnt understand why he was such a big price !!!! silly really ive had a nice bet on him myself ....happy days -
Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 24th March
Winner! :D Although had me a little worried the stewards would be involved for a second when he started drifting right! Shame about the R4 that will apply! My other selection was a little dissapointing and never really found much at the finish.Newbury 240 - Tante Sissi - 8/1 Paddy Power - 1pt Win This is a really tough race to call and I have actually had a few quid on a couple of the runners but this is my main fancy. The form of some of her runs read quite well in this race, especially when I suspect a few of the market leaders will need more of a test to be seen at their best. -
Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day!
1 out of the 4 wasnt bad and the race went pretty much as planned and at a very decent price! :D Bit dissapointed with Soorah as the jockey had a chance to get him a bit closer to the pace but instead dropped back to the rear. Made some good ground coming home to finish a close 4/5th but gave the leaders a chance!I have been shocking in recent weeks on the all weather so I would take anything I say on this with a massive pinch of salt! 225 - Pale Orchid 6/1 Bet365 1pt Win There are question marks over a lot of the other runners, whether it be fitness, trip or general well being. This filly is flying at the moment and whilst this is a rise in class where she might get found out, I still fancy her to put up a bold showing especially with the mares allowance. 255 - Fratelino 12/1 Bet365 2pts EW & Medicean Man 5/1 1pt win Bet365 Fratellino has course form and was recently sythed down late by Oasis Dancer over 6f having led at the 5f pole. He seems to have plenty of speed and a great draw to make use of it, and could potentially have them on the run on the kick for home. Having only just lost to Oasis Dancer when they last met, the difference in price is surprising especially considering my selection has a 3llb pull. Medicean Man is a promising horse in my eyes, and its previous form reads quite well in the context of this race. He has good form, a good AW record and my only concern would be his fitness after the winter break. 325 - Soorah 5/1 1pt Win - Stan James I probably should leave this race alone but unfortunately I cant help myself! With no real confirmed front runner in the field it could end up being a tactical battle and while I would have rated the chances of Junoob and some of the other hold up horses, there is a good chance they wont be able to quicken up off the bend sufficiently to catch those in a prominent position. I was keen on Cai Shen but the draw hasnt been kind and I dont know what tactics they will try and adopt seeing at the horses has won from the front and from off the pace. On to my selection, I would have preferred a better price (which someone on this thread got last night! :cry) but I think the horse has a great chance from the draw. His best races have come from when he has sat just behind the pace, and provided he jumps out of the stalls well enough then he should get that here. He has form on the track and is match fit but I think even Mystic Meg would struggle to predict how this race will unfold! -
Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 24th March Newbury 240 - Tante Sissi - 8/1 Paddy Power - 1pt Win This is a really tough race to call and I have actually had a few quid on a couple of the runners but this is my main fancy. The form of some of her runs read quite well in this race, especially when I suspect a few of the market leaders will need more of a test to be seen at their best.
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Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! I have been shocking in recent weeks on the all weather so I would take anything I say on this with a massive pinch of salt! 225 - Pale Orchid 6/1 Bet365 1pt Win There are question marks over a lot of the other runners, whether it be fitness, trip or general well being. This filly is flying at the moment and whilst this is a rise in class where she might get found out, I still fancy her to put up a bold showing especially with the mares allowance. 255 - Fratelino 12/1 Bet365 2pts EW & Medicean Man 5/1 1pt win Bet365 Fratellino has course form and was recently sythed down late by Oasis Dancer over 6f having led at the 5f pole. He seems to have plenty of speed and a great draw to make use of it, and could potentially have them on the run on the kick for home. Having only just lost to Oasis Dancer when they last met, the difference in price is surprising especially considering my selection has a 3llb pull. Medicean Man is a promising horse in my eyes, and its previous form reads quite well in the context of this race. He has good form, a good AW record and my only concern would be his fitness after the winter break. 325 - Soorah 5/1 1pt Win - Stan James I probably should leave this race alone but unfortunately I cant help myself! With no real confirmed front runner in the field it could end up being a tactical battle and while I would have rated the chances of Junoob and some of the other hold up horses, there is a good chance they wont be able to quicken up off the bend sufficiently to catch those in a prominent position. I was keen on Cai Shen but the draw hasnt been kind and I dont know what tactics they will try and adopt seeing at the horses has won from the front and from off the pace. On to my selection, I would have preferred a better price (which someone on this thread got last night! :cry) but I think the horse has a great chance from the draw. His best races have come from when he has sat just behind the pace, and provided he jumps out of the stalls well enough then he should get that here. He has form on the track and is match fit but I think even Mystic Meg would struggle to predict how this race will unfold!
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Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 24th March 3.30 Kelso - Shadrack 13/2 Paddy Power - 2pt Win This horse is a proper battler and the form of his previous win in a C3 novice handicap has stood up well with the 2nd place horse coming 2nd off 130 in its last 2 runs (1 of which was a 2l 2nd to Bellvano who won at the festival). Shadrack races off of 127 and should have the benefit of a small break to freshen him up and I think he has a few pounds in hand. He doesnt appear to be ground dependant having won on soft and GF against some market rivals that I think have some questions to answer (Time Out has only beat rivals officially 10lb+ lower by a head LTO and would probably prefer a little further, Bene Lad preferring longer and possibly softer, Mr Syntax high enough in the weights & preferring further). Freddie Brown could be an interesting one as Im not sure what to make of the form.
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Re: ATR - Who are we? Hi everyone! I have been lurking around the forums for the last few days so eager to get stuck in and see what everyone has to say that I didnt even notice this thread! To cut a long story short, I only went to my first meeting at Glorious Goodwood and since then I have been hooked and I have gone from having the odd gamble here and there to punting everyday whenever I get time to look at the cards! I am mainly a jumps fan and thats where my profits have stemmed from, although my flat form started to pick up at the end of last season. I border on hopeless on the all weather so I will be grateful for any tips and pointers that anyone cant point my way! :ok
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Re: Synchronised ~ Would you run him in the National? I wouldnt purely because it seems any horse which has ran his race in the GC seems to struggle at Aintree. If he turned up then I think I would be a layer as he is likely to be poor value as well.
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Re: Saturday 14th April - Race 5 - John Smith's Grand National I did quite well in this last year (backed 4 of the top 5) so I am hoping for a similar result this year! My initial thoughts before I have even looked at the runners properly are that Ballabriggs must have a great chance of at least getting a place and that Chicago Grey may well be one to swerve. My reasoning for the latter is firstly his running style, as by running out the back there is a massive chance of being brought down by a faller infront and I would always want a National horse to be one of those making the running or at least very prominant. Secondly he has fallen too many times for my liking in his career, and I am sure there is a negative stats wise if the horse has fallen more than 2 or 3 times in its career. Every time I seem to back him he tips over! :wall
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Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Im on Perennial for the Derby. He produced a quick time FTO where he beat some decent horses and I would be surprised if there wasnt a lot more to come.
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Re: A Question & Idea Firstly, I would just like to say a brief hello as this is my first post! I think this is a cracking thread and there are some really great ideas and a lot of well reasoned responses. If I am honest, its not often that you get such articulate responses from so many posters in betting forums as the ones I have looked at tend to turn into slanging matches or have several people pretending to be in the know! There is a lot of great content on this site and I wonder is it a case of getting people in thats the problem, or is it getting them to stay (or both!)? I follow a couple of random tipsters on twitter (mainly to compare to my bets to theirs than anything else) who happened to do quite well over Cheltenham and their followings have now doubled or trebled in the past week. I obviously realise this isnt a tipping site so to speak, but there must be a way of applying the same principles to get people in the door and then hopefully some of them will stick around.
Sunday 1st April Flat Racing
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Sunday 1st April Flat Racing Looks like I have some of the same horses as a few of you on here so wont bother re-writing the same type of thing! Fingers crossed we have a good day :D