[Flat racing ~ Sunday 6th May]

Re: Flat racing ~ Sunday 6th May

Newmarket 235 - Captivator 12/1 1pt Win Bet365 I dont think this is the best horse in the field BUT I think that given the conditions and the fact that he will be more race fit than his better rivals he could have a chance at a decent price. Timepiece is way too short for my liking and while I fancy Kwaleh I wont be backing any horse that has been off the track for as long as he has. 315 Lyric Of Light 10/1 1pt Win & The Fugue 22/1 .5pt EW Stan James As mentioned on the 1000 Guineas thread, LOL has clocked the best Topspeed's of all of these and done it twice. She has form at the course and distance and whilst I am concerned about the ground 10/1 looks a price to take a risk on. The Fugue is a long shot after winning a half decent maiden but having run to a TS of 90 FTO which suggests she is very much above average (Camelot ran to 90 in the RPT!) so if she is ready for this then I think she has a decent chance of staying on for a place at the least. 350 - Doc Hay 16/1 1pt Win Bet365 Only this horse really stood out for me and that was mainly due to his run behind Sirius Prospect and Mayson at the end of last season (both rated much higher!) and his first run this season showed him to still be in some sort of form. Hoepfully he comes on for that and could be well ahead of his mark here, especially considering he has proven form on soft. 500 - Hazel Lavery 9/2 BV 1pt Win & Arsaadi 7/1 1pt Win Paddy Power This is a race full of unexposed types that could be anything but I cant be having a lot of them because of that. These two have clocked some of the quickest times (which I suppose is to be expected seeing as they have ran more than some of the others) and looking at their sire stats they should both relish the soft ground. Arsaadi in particular has a plum draw in stall 1 and has been backed in this morning from 10/1 last night. 535 - Jupiter Storm 10/1 1Pt Win BV & Open Water 11/2 1pt Win Boylesports I narrowed this race down to a shortlist of three which also included Mubaraza but I wasnt convinced that one would have the ground to suit and the form of its close 2nd LTO isnt as good as the other two's. JS in particular has ran a quick time at Brighton LTO which should leave him with some room off his current mark and the horses behind him that day have also gone on to win or place in their next races. He has to prove himself on this ground but he is a son of Galileo and I dont think it will be a problem. Open Water has a little bit more to find on the clock than the other two but ran really well LTO on return from injury behind Main Sequence (won since). With plenty of improvement expected to come and the ground expected to suit judging by his sire stats I think he will have a great chance of winning this. Hamilton 325 - Dam Beautiful 9/1 Bet365 (Coverbet 2 Places) This is a 5 runner conditional race and judging by what some of these have achieved on the clock, then this one could be well over priced. The favourite has run the quickest of all of these at Ascot BUT that is by far a stand out effort and hasnt produced anything like it since and with them all giving weight to my selection I am expecting a good run especially seeing as connections won this race last year with a horse who had a similar profile.

2 wins (including the BBOTD in the 205), 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd & 1 x 4th for me today which is a big step up on my previous flat form. I think I am starting to get more of an understanding now which I certainly didnt have this time last year as I am getting more and more coming in or at the very least hitting the bar! Great shout from GC for picking Homecoming Queen as I certainly didnt see that winning! :notworthy

[1000 Guineas - May 6th.]

Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

I don't really know what to say. Hugely encouraging run from The Fugue though.

Just a shame she couldnt hold on for third for me! Considering that it was only her second run, she will probably want further, she didnt get a clear run and that Gosden didnt think the ground would suit hugely encouraging could be an understatement... Having said that i dont think the form will hold up too well but I guess we will have to see! The two Godolphin fillies were hugely disappointing and I think that will mostly be down to the ground judging by Street Cry's progeny statistics and probably due to another inauspicious start from the yard again.

[BBotd - Sun 6th May 2012]

Re: BBotd - Sun 6th May 2012

NMK 205 - Ithoughtitwasover - 16/1 .5pt EW - Stan James This one finished off well at the end of last season running some decent times & then carried that on the AW on his first start this season. Not so good on his last start at Epsom but I will put that down to not handling the course, although its possible he didnt enjoy the ground which could be a worry tomorrow. At the price though i think it is worth the risk and with Fallon on board and Johnston doing well I am expecting a big run.

:cigar

[Flat racing ~ Sunday 6th May]

Re: Flat racing ~ Sunday 6th May Newmarket 235 - Captivator 12/1 1pt Win Bet365 I dont think this is the best horse in the field BUT I think that given the conditions and the fact that he will be more race fit than his better rivals he could have a chance at a decent price. Timepiece is way too short for my liking and while I fancy Kwaleh I wont be backing any horse that has been off the track for as long as he has. 315 Lyric Of Light 10/1 1pt Win & The Fugue 22/1 .5pt EW Stan James As mentioned on the 1000 Guineas thread, LOL has clocked the best Topspeed's of all of these and done it twice. She has form at the course and distance and whilst I am concerned about the ground 10/1 looks a price to take a risk on. The Fugue is a long shot after winning a half decent maiden but having run to a TS of 90 FTO which suggests she is very much above average (Camelot ran to 90 in the RPT!) so if she is ready for this then I think she has a decent chance of staying on for a place at the least. 350 - Doc Hay 16/1 1pt Win Bet365 Only this horse really stood out for me and that was mainly due to his run behind Sirius Prospect and Mayson at the end of last season (both rated much higher!) and his first run this season showed him to still be in some sort of form. Hoepfully he comes on for that and could be well ahead of his mark here, especially considering he has proven form on soft. 500 - Hazel Lavery 9/2 BV 1pt Win & Arsaadi 7/1 1pt Win Paddy Power This is a race full of unexposed types that could be anything but I cant be having a lot of them because of that. These two have clocked some of the quickest times (which I suppose is to be expected seeing as they have ran more than some of the others) and looking at their sire stats they should both relish the soft ground. Arsaadi in particular has a plum draw in stall 1 and has been backed in this morning from 10/1 last night. 535 - Jupiter Storm 10/1 1Pt Win BV & Open Water 11/2 1pt Win Boylesports I narrowed this race down to a shortlist of three which also included Mubaraza but I wasnt convinced that one would have the ground to suit and the form of its close 2nd LTO isnt as good as the other two's. JS in particular has ran a quick time at Brighton LTO which should leave him with some room off his current mark and the horses behind him that day have also gone on to win or place in their next races. He has to prove himself on this ground but he is a son of Galileo and I dont think it will be a problem. Open Water has a little bit more to find on the clock than the other two but ran really well LTO on return from injury behind Main Sequence (won since). With plenty of improvement expected to come and the ground expected to suit judging by his sire stats I think he will have a great chance of winning this. Hamilton 325 - Dam Beautiful 9/1 Bet365 (Coverbet 2 Places) This is a 5 runner conditional race and judging by what some of these have achieved on the clock, then this one could be well over priced. The favourite has run the quickest of all of these at Ascot BUT that is by far a stand out effort and hasnt produced anything like it since and with them all giving weight to my selection I am expecting a good run especially seeing as connections won this race last year with a horse who had a similar profile.

[1000 Guineas - May 6th.]

Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. Tough race to pick the winner and I ended up with around 6 on my shortlist and while I thought about leaving it alone I couldn't help myself and plumped with Lyric Of Light and the long shot of The Fugue. I picked LOL because I think the form is slightly better, having run to TopSpeed's in excess of 100 and having beaten better horses than her stablemate. My big worry is that I don't think either of them will fancy this soft ground being by Street Cry. The Fugue is a long shot but it takes a good horse to run to a TS of 90 on their first run and while the Oaks looks the more likely race to target, as we saw today its not impossible for a horse destined for Epsom to do well here. It would certainly be a big ask but I don't she is w/out chance of getting a place.

[BBotd - Sun 6th May 2012]

Re: BBotd - Sun 6th May 2012 NMK 205 - Ithoughtitwasover - 16/1 .5pt EW - Stan James This one finished off well at the end of last season running some decent times & then carried that on the AW on his first start this season. Not so good on his last start at Epsom but I will put that down to not handling the course, although its possible he didnt enjoy the ground which could be a worry tomorrow. At the price though i think it is worth the risk and with Fallon on board and Johnston doing well I am expecting a big run.

[Laying Horses....]

Re: Laying Horses....

i hope you do well with this .......i have been toying with this idea myself saint for a while as if you read through my selections each day the prices i take are usually well above the final prices of the horse before it runs (on average at least 2 points ) and i keep wondering whether it would be much easier to just lay them off every time i can squeeze some profit out (however small ) obviously i would miss out on big winners but i would say 8 out of 10 bets i back go off at shorter odds and i could have checked out a profit with no risk .i do lay them like that sometimes but usually when i can lay at a big profit .......i.e was thinking about laying trumpet master for about 30-40 quid but just fancy the risk this time .....but thats a typical example and if the horse holds price or drifts then i just let them run as my selection process should give me a run for my money either way .....definately food for thought though

I tried doing that on the daily markets and didnt find that it worked for me. I too usually thought I got selections to go off lower, but its probably not as often as you think and I would also guess that the ones that did shorten (as opposed to stay the same or drift) supplied the majority of your winners. I have done it quite well on the AP markets before though, much like your TM bet. They are easier to predict IMO.

[BBOTD - Wed 2nd May 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Wed 2nd May 2012 Like The Saint I also fancy Edmaaj but I have missed the price unfortunately, especially as I dont fancy much else! 420 Gusto 1pt Win 3/1 BetVictor Simplish decision for me on this one having already won 2 listed races this season, clocked some of the best times of all of them and also confirmed his fitness & liking for AW. 3/1 is a bit short but the yard is flying and I expect a big run from a good draw.

[BBotd - 1st May 2012 - Tuesday]

Re: BBotd - 1st May 2012 - Tuesday 805 Kempton - Sulis Minerva 7/1 1pt Win - Paddy Power *BOG The form of a couple of this horses 2nd over 5f at Lingfield has worked out really well with the 1st & 3rd doing really well since, and the selection has also been very unlucky to have been caught out wide or badly hampered in his last 3 runs. He obviously needs things to drop right here and I think the extra furlong suits him (last win came at 6f). Hopefully The Saint's pick will get battled for the lead, leaving this one to sweep up the pieces and score.

[jump racing saturday - 28th april]

Re: jump racing saturday - 28th april Sandown 200 - Tour D'argent 6/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Bourne 14/1 0.5pt EW Bet365 I backed these two at Aintree as I thought both had scope off their respective marks. I was proven right by Tour D'Argent who finished a clear second, and although this current mark suggests that the handicapper is catching up with him, he has won in these type of conditions and has run at a higher level than this. I am convinced that Bourne has more in him, but after his two disappointing runs at Chelt & Aintree I was going to leave alone. Although after reading Rio's thread, if the horse has regained some of his spark then I dont want to miss out! I certainly wont have much on as Im not convinced about the ground but if he is back to his best or even close to it, then he could well go close. Sandown 310 - Le Beau Bai 8/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Vic Venturi 33/1 0.5pt EW Bet365 Le Beau Bai is an obvious candidate for this and while I feel I may have been suckered into this somewhat 8/1 isnt a bad price for a horse that we know will love the ground and get the trip. West End Rocker has a similar profile but I cant help but think that he has neccessarily beat that much (or showed its true running on the day). Vic Venturi is an odd one, and a lot of trust is put on the horse being in the right frame of mind. 33/1 is worth the risk IMO as he is another who should stay and can deal with the ground. My experience of Sandown in these conditions is that horses look like they are going backwards at the end I cant be having any horse that hasnt proved he can deal with the trip and ground conditions. Market Rasen 210 - O'Croitagh 2pt Win 7/2 BetVictor I was on when this one won LTO and while I think he doesnt have much in hand with his mark, I think he will deal with the conditions a lot better than some of these and that will make him look well handicapped in the context of the race. He has won over further and on the ground so this test should suit. Market Rasen 320 - Emperor Concerto 1pt Win 11/2 Paddy Power If price wasnt an issue I would probably be backing Sir Tamburlane but at 9/4 in these somewhat unpredictable conditions, I will leave him alone and instead side with the top weight. He may have a couple of lbs still in hand off of 112 and the 5lb claimer could prove to be very useful. He has form at the trip and in this class, and while I am not 100% convinced how well the ground will suit, I think a lot of the others will dislike it more than this one.

[jump racing saturday - 28th april]

Re: jump racing saturday - 28th april Punchestown 430 - Shadow Catcher 13/2 1Pt Win WilliamHill This is a very competitive race on paper and I have 4 or 5 of them very close on figures with Balder Success looking the best of them. He should suit the conditions as well but at 5/2 offers no value to me, so I have sided with Shadow Catcher instead. The conditions look to suit him the most and he has come out on top against a couple of these on this type of ground already this season. There are quite a few dangers with Ut De Sivola being an interesting one, having won well on this type of ground earlier in the year and then disappointing since away from these conditions. Darroun & Edeymi look decent EW shouts at a good price, and I think Hisabaat wont enjoy the ground. Secret Edge will love the ground but I still think he has a bit to find. 540 - Last of The Leaders 10/1 1Pt Win A few come to the fore in this handicap, but I think Last Of The Leaders has a decent prize in him over hurdles somewhere and I am hoping this is it. He has done well on his return to hurdling and shapes like he has needed more of a test the last twice, which he just about gets here. He should relish the conditions and while others start to fade in the closing stages, I am expecting this one to go bounding on. One of the others that catches my eye is Up For The Match, he looks ahead of his mark and will be another that has conditions to suit and I will probably also have a few quid on him. Caolaneoin could be a danger if he settles better & Immediate Response has won like a good horse the last twice but could find top weight too much in this race. Maller Tree is interesting but I dont think the ground will suit as well as others & the same can be said for He'll Be Rememberred. 315 - Quantitiveeasing 8/1 1pt Win I backed him in the original race at 10/1 so I am a bit disappointed to get the worse price & unfortunately I have also thrown by workings away so not entirely sure for my reasoning. However, I think I had this one and Rubi Light as the best rated in the race and both will have the ground the way they like it. I was on RL at 7/2 in the week but 5/2 is short enough, especially with small doubts over stamina, so McCoy's mount gets the thumbs up from me. 350 - Carrigmartin 8/1 & Foildubh 5/1 Again I cant remember why I picked them originally but thought I would just post them anyway. I think Carrigmartin won well LTO over hurdles and his win over Wise Old Owl here looks decent and I dont think this mark is unsurmountable with the potential of more to come over this trip. Foildubh is one who will like the conditions and is fairly weighted on this mark, especially if the step up in trip suits.

[BBOTD Saturday 28th of April]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 28th of April Punchestown 430 - Shadow Catcher 13/2 1Pt Win WilliamHill This is a very competitive race on paper and I have 4 or 5 of them very close on figures with Balder Success looking the best of them. He should suit the conditions as well but at 5/2 offers no value to me, so I have sided with Shadow Catcher instead. The conditions look to suit him the most and he has come out on top against a couple of these on this type of ground already this season. There are quite a few dangers with Ut De Sivola being an interesting one, having won well on this type of ground earlier in the year and then disappointing since away from these conditions. Darroun & Edeymi look decent EW shouts at a good price, and I think Hisabaat wont enjoy the ground. Secret Edge will love the ground but I still think he has a bit to find.

[BBOTD Friday 27th of April]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of April Punchestown 640 - Tango Banbou - 12/1 0.5pt EW Boylesports BOG I dont really fancy too much tomorrow, but this one intrigues me the most. Tried chasing to start with and didnt really get on with it and then won nicely on his first fun over hurdles, although that may flatter him. That form doesnt look too bad, and while I think a couple of these might be better ratings wise, I think this one will perform better in the conditions which gives him a decent shout. He is also a front runner which will probably help here and it means I should know which one he is after the first couple of furlongs, when the rest are various shades of brown!

[BBOTD Wednesday 25th]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 25th Kempton 620 - Perfect Chi 4/1 Bet365 BOG In an 8 runner race I fancy this one to get an easy lead from a great draw and hopefully make all. He has clocked some decent times previously at Kempton over this trip and with everything set to suit him here I think he is a solid bet.

[What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? I generally stick to singles with the occasional EW. I used to do some doubles/trebles & yankees etc but I worked out that they lost me a lot more than I won back and it really wasnt worth it. I occasionally do a forecast on the flat if I think two runners in a race are ahead of their mark and it has actually done quite well for me and I quite often bet on the place only or w/out market when the situation suits. I have heard a lot of people comment on how bookies dont like the EW double but never really dont it myself.

[BBOTD Tuesday 24th of April]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 24th of April Southwell 8.10 - Only Ten Percent 11/10 1Pt Win - Bet365 BOG Not generally the type of race I like to bet on and especially not at the price but with the weather as it is I will swerve the turf meetings and focus on the AW for the day. This is only a 6 runner race and this one has the most improvement in the field. He won at this trip LTO but Im not sure whether he was idling at the end or whether it stretched him so that is my one doubt, but I am hoping he was idling and if I am right then he should win this cosily. The draw is good (even though it shouldnt have much affect with this many in) and his style of running should suit this race.

[Jumps - Sunday 22nd April]

Re: Jumps - Sunday 22nd April

Thought I would post up a couple of quick selections for todays races though I will be posting the prices I took last night if thats ok? Wincanton 310 - Natural Spring 15/2 2pt Win & Drussell 16/1 1pt EW Natural Spring looks to be ahead of her mark at the moment after showing some decent form on a return from a break when 3rd LTO. She might need good ground so hopefully the rain can stay away! Drussell is an interesting contender at the price as he didnt get home over a longer trip LTO, but the two runs before that showed a degree of promise (finishing a close 2nd to HillsofUneach). Conditions should suit and I would be disappointed if he didnt have a good run, although I am wary that he may have some temprement issues which hopefully the 1st time visor will iron out! A couple of other dangers include Whistling Senator but he looks overrated imo, Medic Man who I am struggling to weigh up and Taffy Thomas who could run well on his first go at a handicap, but Im not convinced he wants this trip. Wincanton 340 -Great Kicker 20/1 0.5pt Win Not quite sure why I have backed this one, as he is potentially very limited BUT the form of his second behind Akarshan (conceeding lots of weight - now rated 115ish) looks decent and makes his current mark workable. He also finished 2nd LTO and racing from 7lb out of the weights makes him vulnerable but possibly worth a chance at a decent price, although as I write this I am thinking I should have left this one well alone! Stratford 330 - Synthe Davis 9/2 1pt Win This one looks to be just ahead of her mark at the moment and with the booking of a decent claimer this looks a good opportunity for the connections to score with conditions set to suit. Im not convinced by the rest of the field either and I would expect this one to go very close. Stratford 500 - Raphiell 3/1 2pt Win As mentioned in the BBOTD thread, I quite simply think this one is the best weighted runner in the field and with half running from out of the handicap and this one's LTO form looking strong (2nd & 3rd won since) it should be a good opportunity for back to back wins. Conditions should suit, with the extra distance hopefully bringing even more improvement.

Not my best day, although two 2nds and the 20-1 shot was by a head, which was a surprising result. I blame the weather on the other two as neither looked comfortable and I think they are better than what they showed today.

[Jumps - Sunday 22nd April]

Thought I would post up a couple of quick selections for todays races though I will be posting the prices I took last night if thats ok? Wincanton 310 - Natural Spring 15/2 2pt Win & Drussell 16/1 1pt EW Natural Spring looks to be ahead of her mark at the moment after showing some decent form on a return from a break when 3rd LTO. She might need good ground so hopefully the rain can stay away! Drussell is an interesting contender at the price as he didnt get home over a longer trip LTO, but the two runs before that showed a degree of promise (finishing a close 2nd to HillsofUneach). Conditions should suit and I would be disappointed if he didnt have a good run, although I am wary that he may have some temprement issues which hopefully the 1st time visor will iron out! A couple of other dangers include Whistling Senator but he looks overrated imo, Medic Man who I am struggling to weigh up and Taffy Thomas who could run well on his first go at a handicap, but Im not convinced he wants this trip. Wincanton 340 -Great Kicker 20/1 0.5pt Win Not quite sure why I have backed this one, as he is potentially very limited BUT the form of his second behind Akarshan (conceeding lots of weight - now rated 115ish) looks decent and makes his current mark workable. He also finished 2nd LTO and racing from 7lb out of the weights makes him vulnerable but possibly worth a chance at a decent price, although as I write this I am thinking I should have left this one well alone! Stratford 330 - Synthe Davis 9/2 1pt Win This one looks to be just ahead of her mark at the moment and with the booking of a decent claimer this looks a good opportunity for the connections to score with conditions set to suit. Im not convinced by the rest of the field either and I would expect this one to go very close. Stratford 500 - Raphiell 3/1 2pt Win As mentioned in the BBOTD thread, I quite simply think this one is the best weighted runner in the field and with half running from out of the handicap and this one's LTO form looking strong (2nd & 3rd won since) it should be a good opportunity for back to back wins. Conditions should suit, with the extra distance hopefully bringing even more improvement.

[A few photos from Cheltenham on Thursday]

Re: A few photos from Cheltenham on Thursday Love the pic of Une Artiste & Swincombe Flame! Great shot!

[BBOTD Sunday 22nd April 2012]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 22nd April 2012 Stratford - 500 Raphiell 1pt Win 3/1 Bet365 BOG Quite simply I think this horse has the most in hand compared to its rivals. If they all turn up, then half of them will be out of the handicap and have no chance, and the others have more questions to answer. Midnight Macarena is probably the main danger but I think the rise for his latest win will probably be enought to stop him this time. My selections last run has worked out pretty well with the 2nd & 3rd horses winning since and this slight increase in distance could bring about more improvement.

[Jumps - Tuesday 17th April]

Re: Jumps - Tuesday 17th April

Kempton 350 - Farleigh House 10/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes I was ready to leave this race alone given some of the question marks over some of the runners but I think there is some value to be had in this one's price in an 8 runner contest. I would look to EW but at 1/5 a place 10/1 looks a little short for me but its each to their own. The selection's form when 2nd to Wessex King looks quite good in this race with that horse winning off 120 since & the 3rd place horse coming 2nd off 111 (10l behind FH). His most recent run came after a lay off so I am expecting better here in conditions that should suit providing the rain doesnt come too hard. For that reason this may be one to wait on, as I would be surprised if the price contracted too much before the off. Of the others, Im convinced Baseball Ted is going to pop up at some point as he has a little bit of decent form, but recent disapointing outings mean I will pass for now. Kikos has been off the track for 172 days and while he does well fresh, I still think he is too high int he weights. Coolbeg is very short for what he has achieved and at 2/1 I will leave well alone. Ajzal looks weighted to best & I wasnt impressed by how he was hanging right LTO & Tooka will probably want a bit further than 16f around here to be shown at his best and he is one of several front runners in this race.

Knew this would bloody happen when my money wasnt on! At least mine was a NR so didnt lose to it. Bit of a rubbish day for me 2 NR's and 2 horses not running their race at all, with Spring Moon losing his action and pulled up very sharply. This I will wait and see what happens with the ground now with this stormy weather set to continue for a couple of days.

[BBOTD Tuesday 17th of April]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th of April Exeter 300 - Oscarslad 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power There should be a couple of improvers in this field but I think Oscarslad has the solidest form of the lot and with the potential of more to come he should be a solid bet even at a shortish price. His last run has worked out well with the 2nd placed horse coming 2nd off 109. The selection should improve for the extra distance and while quicker ground is an unknown, he seemed to improve a bit for the better ground last time, and might even come on more for it here. As for the rest of them, im sure a lot of attention will be directed at Soulard who wont LTO for David Pipe, but that was an uncompetitive race where he was unimpressive and the form of the races he placed in before that havent worked out too well. Al Co is back down to his last winning mark but looks moody & inconsistent, Imperial Circus was unlucky not to do better in his penultimate run due a ponderous jump at the last consting him momentum, but he didnt confirm that promise NTO. Teenage Kicks has a chance but I think he will be better over further and while Counting House may have needed his last run I will pass on him for the time being.

[Jumps - Tuesday 17th April]

A couple of decent cards for these midweek end of season meetings at Kempton & Exeter, so fingers crossed for some winners! Although with rain predicted at both venues (more so at Kempton) picking the horses the night before is a bit risky and small stakes are probably best for the time being. Exeter 300 - Oscarslad 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power There should be a couple of improvers in this field but I think Oscarslad has the solidest form of the lot and with the potential of more to come he should be a solid bet even at a shortish price. His last run has worked out well with the 2nd placed horse coming 2nd off 109. The selection should improve for the extra distance and while quicker ground is an unknown, he seemed to improve a bit for the better ground last time, and might even come on more for it here. As for the rest of them, im sure a lot of attention will be directed at Soulard who wont LTO for David Pipe, but that was an uncompetitive race where he was unimpressive and the form of the races he placed in before that havent worked out too well. Al Co is back down to his last winning mark but looks moody & inconsistent, Imperial Circus was unlucky not to do better in his penultimate run due a ponderous jump at the last consting him momentum, but he didnt confirm that promise NTO. Teenage Kicks has a chance but I think he will be better over further and while Counting House may have needed his last run I will pass on him for the time being. 330 - Spring Moon 11/2 1pt Win Bet365 This horse has been knocking on the door recently with 4 second places finishes and while I sometimes question a horses resolution when that is the case, I do feel he may have been a little unlucky, and can hopefully go one better tomorrow. He went down by a neck to a horse now rated 119 LTO and while conditions werent totally in that horses favour when they met, with Spring Moon only racing off 105 in this race he must have a great shout. Similarly the 3rd in that race has also gone on to win again NTO to make the form look very solid. Trip & ground should be no problem and my only concern is the 135 day break. Of the main dangers, Key Cutter looks like he could be an improver if the headgear he wore in his last race continues to do the trick having beaten a 110 (ish) rated horse by 11lenghts (eased down as well) so if he confirms that form then he could be well in, with the jockey believing he would get this sort of trip after that race. Fairoak who is having his 2nd run after a long break should improve, but I want to see more evidence that he can compete off this mark first and with him already being around 4-5/1 I will pass. I backed Kaybeew LTO but I think the increase in weights, potential firmer ground, and higher class will all find him out, which his trainer was wary of after that win. The race that Pairc Na Gcapall came 2nd in LTO fell apart and the form looks weak, Ethiopia has his wellfare to prove, Sea Saffron needs to show his revival over hurdles will be confirmed over fences and Jolly Boys Outing is probably weighted to best up in class and away from his favourite track. Kempton 350 - Farleigh House 10/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes I was ready to leave this race alone given some of the question marks over some of the runners but I think there is some value to be had in this one's price in an 8 runner contest. I would look to EW but at 1/5 a place 10/1 looks a little short for me but its each to their own. The selection's form when 2nd to Wessex King looks quite good in this race with that horse winning off 120 since & the 3rd place horse coming 2nd off 111 (10l behind FH). His most recent run came after a lay off so I am expecting better here in conditions that should suit providing the rain doesnt come too hard. For that reason this may be one to wait on, as I would be surprised if the price contracted too much before the off. Of the others, Im convinced Baseball Ted is going to pop up at some point as he has a little bit of decent form, but recent disapointing outings mean I will pass for now. Kikos has been off the track for 172 days and while he does well fresh, I still think he is too high int he weights. Coolbeg is very short for what he has achieved and at 2/1 I will leave well alone. Ajzal looks weighted to best & I wasnt impressed by how he was hanging right LTO & Tooka will probably want a bit further than 16f around here to be shown at his best and he is one of several front runners in this race. 420 - Dance For Livvy - 8/1 1pt Win Bet365 Probably another race I should have stayed away from but the form of the selections 3rd to One Lucky Lady looks decent in the context of this race and could be a live runner at a decent price. The winner has subsequently been places of 120, the 2nd won NTO and the 4th has placed since. Her most recent runner was over much further and a line can be put through that run. Luggers Hall is a market mover and looks a big danger in my books if he can reproduce the form of his penultimate start. He did so well to finish where he did considering his rider lost his irons towards the end but I get the feeling this trip may be a little too sharp. The favourites Alfraamsey & Dark Spirit also ahve good shouts but the former is having his first run back after a break and the latter is too short for what he has achieved so far in my (tight) eyes. He could be very well treated there is no value in 2/1.

[Flat Racing 16th April (Windsor & Wolverhampton)]

Re: Flat Racing 16th April (Windsor & Wolverhampton)

Some good handicaps tomorrow at Windsor and i quite fancy a few. 4.30 The ground is the only worry with Zafeens Pearl (15/2 VC) but it's unfair to dismiss her with only 4 runs to date where she's gone ok on a couple of occasions. Based on her run lto she looks very well handicapped and being drawn stall 1 in this big field handicap with a decent pace looking likely i think she'll go very close as long as the ground isnt a problem. Savered on Uncle Fred and Benandonner as well. 5.00 I like two here but think there's big value in Sugar Beet (20/1 Ladbrokes) who's dropped back to 5f where all her best form has come. Recently been running in some decent races on the all weather over 6f and hasnt been disgraced. Dropped a couple of pounds, only 2lbs above her last win with ground conditions not a problem. Has been progressing for the last year and definitely worth a bet at 20/1 for that to continue. Also Escape To Glory (7/1 VC) has looked in need of the drop to 5f in his last two starts and should be capable off a mark of 79. Ground conditions fine and Will Buick booked a big run looks expected. Both of these well drawn and without traffic problems i think they'll go close. 5.30 Reset City (7/1 WH) is still lightly raced and has gone well since joining Ian Williams. Unlucky lto to run into an obviously very well handicapped Johnston runner in a race not run to suit. This bigger field should ensure a decent gallop and with ground/distance fine she should go well with SDS booked. Also think Timocracy (20/1 Bet365) should go well for the in form Alastair Lidderdale yard with Leona Mayor taking a valuable 7lbs off putting this one well handicapped in my eyes. Improved for his reappearance lto not beaten a massive distance running into some well handicapped rivals and may be able to grab the lead here. Suits to be prominent around here and having won over C&D i think he could go well at a price.

:notworthy

[BBOTD Sunday 15th of April]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 15th of April

Ffos Las 315 - Rockabilly 2pt Win 11/2 Ladbrokes There are few contenders in this race but I think my selection should just about have the edge over them. He looked like the likely winner before falling in his penultimate race and his more recent 2nd has been franked by Sound Accord (3rd) who won NTO. His mark is only 2lb higher than when he fell and Im hoping today is the day he makes amends. He has won at the trip, on the ground and in the class. Of the others, both thelobstercatcher and Fishoutofwater are sloppy jumpers with average form, and whilst I can envisage the latter improving, I would like to see it first before I back him, especially at the prices. Carabinier looks too high in the weights and im not sure the distance will suit, Bathwick Brave is having its chase debut, King Jack has attitude problems (serial 2nd place, lucky to win LTO) and Ceepeegee is generally inconsistent (although probably has a squeek here). The two I am most worried about are Five Out Of Five and Culahill. FOOF's 2nd at Fakenham was decent considering it was after a break and also with unusual tactics and he looked set to go close before falling LTO. Culahill also could improve after its first run after a break and his 2nd LTO doesnt look too bad in the context of this race, with conditions set to suit.

Wheeeeyyy! :D