Blazing Bailey
-
Posts
1,836 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by Blazing Bailey
-
-
Re: Flat Racing May 19th Newbury 230 - Bertiewhittle 9/1 1pt Win Bet365 Was very unlucky not to finish a lot closer last time after getting severly hampered when he looked like he was going to run well. He has run some decent times in the past and with his well being confirmed last time, he could have some progression still left in him and I am willing to have a small stakes bet on him. 305 - Rewarded 8/1 2pt Win Bet365 Ticks all my boxes, good TS & RPR rating, conditions to suit and also a value price. I think the favourite is over rated (as Paddy Power also seem to as they have got the money back special on him) and while there are a few dangers (especially Expenses Claim who I may have a saver on), I would disappointed if the selection was right up there. Newmarket 215 - Rugged Cross 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 I was very surprised to see such decent odds for this horse considering it ran to a very good TS LTO of which the form also looks very solid. Obviously it wont be an easy race to win but in my eyes he has as much of a chance as the market principals. My main worry is regards to how fit he is for this race in comparison to the majority who have had a run but 6/1 compensates for that. 245 - Mince 6/1 2pt Win Bet365 & Heraaft 9/1 2pt Win Bet365 In a pattern that is probably becoming quite similar with my flat bets, I believe these two have the best recent TS ratings in the race & the conditions look ideal for them both, especially at a course they have both done well at. I have Mince slightly ahead but according to ATR, the draw is better for Heraaft. This is quite a competitive race and other I like the look of our Pea Shooter who I think will probably need the run, Kimbali who I dont think will like the ground & Dark Castle who could be thrown in here based on the TS of 89 he acquired at Kempton but I doubt he will transfer that to the turf, especially with his sire having a better strike rate on the sand. 320 - The Nile 9/4-2/1 now but was 11/4 earlier with Ladbrokes The form looks good for this horse, and while I would normally sit this out because I think there are a few with promise, the yard sound condfident and the fact the price has shortened so much already confirms this. 540 - Zaina 8/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes I looked at this horse when it was intended to run at the Guineas meeting, and marked it as one to look out for on better ground in a similar sort of race. She gets that here and 8/1 looked very big for a horse that has some decent form, and has ran the quickest (and most reliable) TS out of all of these. This trip should suit well and im expecting a good show, even though there could again be some decent opposition.
-
Re: BBOTD Friday 18th
Just gets better and better does this horse! If I had known all this before hand I wouldnt have even bothered looking at its form! Not sure it would have been accepted on here as BBOTD though!Often ridden by Hayley Turner too! :) -
Re: BBOTD Friday 18th
Haha didnt even notice that! Brilliant!I love the name of that horse when I heard it's out of a horse called Wonderbra :lol -
Re: BBOTD Saturday 19th Newbury 305 - Rewarded 8/1 1Pt Win Bet365 BOG Even though the selection was a little fortunate to win in the end LTO (albeit ahead of another well regarded horse), he still put up a very decent TopSpeed time & RPR which is more than the rest have achieved. He has done well at the track before coming 2nd to Might Ambition on his debut and the ground and draw should also suit. With the expectation of more to come I expect him to run well, even if I think there are some other decent unexposed horses in opposition.
-
Re: BBOTD Friday 18th Hamilton 910 - Bouncy Bouncy 7/2 1pt Win Bet365 BOG This horse has recorded some decent Topspeeds recently in excess of his handicap mark, so with conditions set to suit perfectly (trip, ground, distance, track, draw) I am expecting a very big run. I think the main danger is First in Command, but I am hoping he is slightly flattered by his last race where he raced up with the pace at a front running track.
-
Re: Jumps Racing - Weds 16th May
Well I was right and I was wrong. I thought the form for Ventian Lad looked good and it just about held on. The good ground must have helped him stay on this occasion, but I doubt the form will hold true seeing as it was such a weak race. Hobbs Dream still doesnt look to have gotten over that fall a few runs back and can be swerved until she puts in a more convincing display over the larger obstacles.Fontwell 455 - Hobbs Dream 9/2 1pt Win Bet365 Im not normally a fan of Fontwell, which is a shame because it is probably the closest jumps track to me, but I believe the form is slightly more easier to read on drier ground so I will have a go at this race. I havent got any real confidence in my selection if I am brutally honest and if I hadnt spent time looking through the runners of the race I would probably have left it alone, but I think that Hobbs Dream should have a decent shout in a weak race. Her last 2 chase starts have been uninspiring to say the least having fallen & tailed off, but her run which was over hurdles wasnt too bad despite being beaten by 13l considering the pace of the race over that trip was never going to suit. If she can revert back to her Wincanton form where she beat horse who only lost by a nose NTO then she could take some beating in conditions which really should suit given Fontwell's stamina sapping hill finish. Beware Chalk Pit has some decent older form but hasnt shown anything whatsoever recently & neither Accumulus or Local Present look to be in any sort of form that could win them this race. The Clyda Rover is currently the 9/4 Fav but his LTO C&D win looks a bit suspect and Im not sure the form will hold true. It was a tough race and running only 12 days later could further hinder his chances. Having shown very little before hand Im not convinced he will follow up and at that price he is probably layable. Might As Well is a horse that will want the better ground, but bar one run when 8L behind Hobbs Dream, he hasnt really shown enough for me. Venetian Lad is probably the only other interesting horse in the race. His 3rd at Plumpton 3 runs back has been franked by the 1st & 2nd who have won and placed since off higher marks. I do think that this one could have a shout but im not convinced he will get the trip, especially here and previous attempts have left him treading water at the end, while stronger stayers plough past him. For that reason alone I will pass but anyone bets in running, this could be one to lay at a short price in the last couple of furlongs. -
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 16th
Cracking shout! :clap3.00 York Tiddliwinks ew @ 33/1 Bet365 This horse placed twice last year in group company, including this race on his 2nd run returning from a break. He comes here again having had a pipe opener at Newmarket and I would expect a much better performance today than what he showed last month. In the last 2 seasons he has come to York on his 2nd run back from a break and ran a blinder. He clearly goes well at the track and Jamie Spencer has been booked for the ride. He has won on this horse before and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he were to outrun his odds. -
Fontwell 455 - Hobbs Dream 9/2 1pt Win Bet365 Im not normally a fan of Fontwell, which is a shame because it is probably the closest jumps track to me, but I believe the form is slightly more easier to read on drier ground so I will have a go at this race. I havent got any real confidence in my selection if I am brutally honest and if I hadnt spent time looking through the runners of the race I would probably have left it alone, but I think that Hobbs Dream should have a decent shout in a weak race. Her last 2 chase starts have been uninspiring to say the least having fallen & tailed off, but her run which was over hurdles wasnt too bad despite being beaten by 13l considering the pace of the race over that trip was never going to suit. If she can revert back to her Wincanton form where she beat horse who only lost by a nose NTO then she could take some beating in conditions which really should suit given Fontwell's stamina sapping hill finish. Beware Chalk Pit has some decent older form but hasnt shown anything whatsoever recently & neither Accumulus or Local Present look to be in any sort of form that could win them this race. The Clyda Rover is currently the 9/4 Fav but his LTO C&D win looks a bit suspect and Im not sure the form will hold true. It was a tough race and running only 12 days later could further hinder his chances. Having shown very little before hand Im not convinced he will follow up and at that price he is probably layable. Might As Well is a horse that will want the better ground, but bar one run when 8L behind Hobbs Dream, he hasnt really shown enough for me. Venetian Lad is probably the only other interesting horse in the race. His 3rd at Plumpton 3 runs back has been franked by the 1st & 2nd who have won and placed since off higher marks. I do think that this one could have a shout but im not convinced he will get the trip, especially here and previous attempts have left him treading water at the end, while stronger stayers plough past him. For that reason alone I will pass but anyone bets in running, this could be one to lay at a short price in the last couple of furlongs.
-
Re: Tuesday 15th May - Jumps Racing
I should have left Jomade alone and that goes down as a silly temptation bet because of the price but Daarth did well to dead heat and its a shame he couldnt quite get his neck in front to be the sole winner. The other winner was Earcomesthedream who I probably would have done if he was at his starting price of 9/2 last night!Hereford 450 - Jomade 12/1 1pt EW Bet365 & Daarth 7/1 1pt Win Bet365 This looks a quite competitve race with a few that have a decent chance although firstly I will go through the ones I dont think will win. Little Eaglet, Rio Alto, Minella Bliss & The Hudnalls all look out of form & Monty's Revenge has something to prove given his last 2 runs. Jomade looks slightly over rated based on his previous win as the form doesnt look very strong, although there are bits and pieces from further back suggesting that defying 97 is possible. The conditions should suit if the rain stays away and the current price of 12/1 is fairly generous. Earcomesthedream is currently the favourite, and a worthy one at that if the form of his last run is confirmed here. However I suspect he may prefer softer ground than is likely here even if his trainer suggested after his last win that dryer conditions will bring more improvement. I certainly wouldnt go against this one but 5/2 is too short IMO. Lyrical Chant ran a good 2nd LTO and while I dont think the winner of that race is as good as his mark suggests, I still think there is room for manoeuvre with this mare but again 11/4 at the moment doesnt look like value. Daarth is a very intriguing runner. Firstly he is a 19 race maiden in all codes which means I would normally steer well clear, and probably should again here BUT his previous run when 3rd looks very solid form with the 2nd winning NTO and the winner going onto win 2 more times and place on 2 other occasions. That is by far the best form in this race IMO and the slightly longer trip should also suit. Flag Flier is another with a chance (albeit a small one) from out of the weights. She was disappointing LTO but had previously had 2 decent runs suggesting that this mark wasnt beyond her. I think she does have a few questions to answer for the time being having tailed off last time. -
Re: Tuesday 15th May - Jumps Racing
Typical that the two I fancied most were non runners!Looks to be a few decent cards for tomorrow and with the ground finally drying out a little I will have a plunge into a couple of races, albeit only one for now. Showers are forecast though, but hopefully it wont alter the going too much. Hereford 420 - Chapel House - 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power. This is probably a bit of an obvious choice but looking at his previous races I think he still probably has a few pounds in hand and providing he jumps as well as he did LTO then he should take some beating. After that race the trainer did say his improvement in jumping was down to the slight ease in the ground, so a little rain wouldnt hurt this one's chances. My main worry is that he may be taken on up front. Try Catch Me is currently 2nd Fav at 9/2 but I think his previous wins at Fontwell make him look better than he is and having not beaten much I am happy to pass. Ramses De Marcigny & Moriento have both been off the track for a while, and while the former should be respected because of his connections (Nicholls) and the latter because he has a couple of bits of interesting form, I will give them a watching brief for the time being. Similar comments apply to Rob Conti, although he is race fit, it is his chase debut and I will wait to see if he can jump the big obstacles first before making an opinion on him. TyUp Pompey looks hopelessly out of form BUT this appears to be his time of year and he does have course form. I wont be touching him but it wouldnt surprise me if a few have a gamble and he leaves his previous form behind. Getaway Driver looks held by my selection and seems to have bucket loads of temprement, so thats a definite no for me. Brinham Boy has been running consistently but against a lot worse horses than he faces today. Unwanted Gift is not without hope at the foot of the weights, and while the form of his win LTO is fairly weak, he does have a couple of bits of form from earlier in the year which suggest he isnt out of this. Might be worth a saver. -
Re: Tuesday 15th May - Jumps Racing Hereford 450 - Jomade 12/1 1pt EW Bet365 & Daarth 7/1 1pt Win Bet365 This looks a quite competitve race with a few that have a decent chance although firstly I will go through the ones I dont think will win. Little Eaglet, Rio Alto, Minella Bliss & The Hudnalls all look out of form & Monty's Revenge has something to prove given his last 2 runs. Jomade looks slightly over rated based on his previous win as the form doesnt look very strong, although there are bits and pieces from further back suggesting that defying 97 is possible. The conditions should suit if the rain stays away and the current price of 12/1 is fairly generous. Earcomesthedream is currently the favourite, and a worthy one at that if the form of his last run is confirmed here. However I suspect he may prefer softer ground than is likely here even if his trainer suggested after his last win that dryer conditions will bring more improvement. I certainly wouldnt go against this one but 5/2 is too short IMO. Lyrical Chant ran a good 2nd LTO and while I dont think the winner of that race is as good as his mark suggests, I still think there is room for manoeuvre with this mare but again 11/4 at the moment doesnt look like value. Daarth is a very intriguing runner. Firstly he is a 19 race maiden in all codes which means I would normally steer well clear, and probably should again here BUT his previous run when 3rd looks very solid form with the 2nd winning NTO and the winner going onto win 2 more times and place on 2 other occasions. That is by far the best form in this race IMO and the slightly longer trip should also suit. Flag Flier is another with a chance (albeit a small one) from out of the weights. She was disappointing LTO but had previously had 2 decent runs suggesting that this mark wasnt beyond her. I think she does have a few questions to answer for the time being having tailed off last time.
-
Re: BBOTD Monday 14th of May
Cant say I was overly impressed with Fortune's ride there. It was clearly a slow pace so he decides to sit out the back and wait for the rest of the field to make their moves before trying to get the horse going. Dont think he would have won anyway to be fair but the horse is better than he showed there IMO.*Cades Reef - Windsor 8:10* Best run in it's 4 runs to date when a good 3rd at Sailisbury last time out. Should relish the step up in trip and the booking of Jimmy Fortune is eye-catching. It is a rather weak handicap and won't take a lot of winning. Balding's last 2 winners at Windsor have won and Jimmy Fortune has a terrific record for him at Windsor, 22 rides resulting in 9 wins with a level stakes profit of +£17.92 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 5/1 Hills BOG* -
Looks to be a few decent cards for tomorrow and with the ground finally drying out a little I will have a plunge into a couple of races, albeit only one for now. Showers are forecast though, but hopefully it wont alter the going too much. Hereford 420 - Chapel House - 3/1 1pt Win Paddy Power. This is probably a bit of an obvious choice but looking at his previous races I think he still probably has a few pounds in hand and providing he jumps as well as he did LTO then he should take some beating. After that race the trainer did say his improvement in jumping was down to the slight ease in the ground, so a little rain wouldnt hurt this one's chances. My main worry is that he may be taken on up front. Try Catch Me is currently 2nd Fav at 9/2 but I think his previous wins at Fontwell make him look better than he is and having not beaten much I am happy to pass. Ramses De Marcigny & Moriento have both been off the track for a while, and while the former should be respected because of his connections (Nicholls) and the latter because he has a couple of bits of interesting form, I will give them a watching brief for the time being. Similar comments apply to Rob Conti, although he is race fit, it is his chase debut and I will wait to see if he can jump the big obstacles first before making an opinion on him. TyUp Pompey looks hopelessly out of form BUT this appears to be his time of year and he does have course form. I wont be touching him but it wouldnt surprise me if a few have a gamble and he leaves his previous form behind. Getaway Driver looks held by my selection and seems to have bucket loads of temprement, so thats a definite no for me. Brinham Boy has been running consistently but against a lot worse horses than he faces today. Unwanted Gift is not without hope at the foot of the weights, and while the form of his win LTO is fairly weak, he does have a couple of bits of form from earlier in the year which suggest he isnt out of this. Might be worth a saver.
-
Re: BBOTD Tues 15th Beverly 300 - Mercers Row 7/2 1pt Win Bet365 BOG The selection has been a bit of an unlucky horse in its last few runs, not quite getting the breaks until last time, when despite being mildly hampered still managed to get his nose in front and produce a quick time in the process. Judging by that effort I think he has a bit more up his sleeves and this testing sprint track should suit this horse as I expect him to power through as the other toil out in front. Price isnt amazing and I suspect this might drift tomorrow. My big worry is that he is stepping up in class but hopefully he can deal with it. The favourite Diamond Blue looks prime lay material for me, getting the run of the race LTO at a track that suits front runners. I might end up eating my words but I would be extremely surprised if this one was the winner.
-
Re: BBOTD Monday 14th of May
Cracking tip! :notworthy18:40 Windsor - Swift Cat - (0.5 PT EW, 33/1, Stan James) Second handicap run for this horse, stepped up in trip from last time out at Kempton and has been gelded since it's last run which can seem to bring out some improvement. Potentially will come no where but could well be anything in this race if the step up in distance works well for the horse, and at the current price could be worth a small stakes bet. -
Re: How do you guys study form?? One book that really helped me get a firmer understand of flat racing was Jon Gibby's Well Handicapped Horses. Might not be one for you right away, but once you have a general understanding of the game, this one could you find a few more pieces of the puzzle. I was pretty much in the same place you are this time last year and I have basically read everything I can get my hands on, whether it be about form, breeding, 2yo's, draw & pace bias, speed ratings etc etc. Some things wont click right away but as you read more you will then go back and think 'oooh thats what he meant!' lol.
-
Re: BBOTD Sunday 13th of May
Didnt even get close! Oscarslad can second and at least Terfet's Toscar didnt win. Congrats to BarnsleyChop who got it right with Dingat!Worcester 350 - Ricardo's Chance - 10/1 1pt Win Paddy Power BOG This one is an old timer now but I think he has it in him to win a race of this nature off of a mark of 105. Before his absence he was rated in the mid 110's, competing in class 2 handicaps and showed LTO that he still retains some of that ability over a trip that was probably a little too short and on ground that was a little too soft. With another sunny day forecast for tomorrow, I am hoping the ground will ride very close to good by the time these lot go to post. Of the rest, I think a couple of the market leaders are over-rated and Terfel's Toscar especially, as he hasnt beaten any of note to give him a mark of over 100 and is potentially laying material. Oscarslad could be the one to watch, especially if he shows any improvement but at the moment I think his mark is a fair one. -
Re: Anyone a racing post member?? Im an RP member as well and find it very useful for what I want to look at, especially on the flat where I use their TopSpeed ratings. As mentioned by the other guys, the basic package is more than adequate for what most people want and need.
-
Re: BBOTD Sunday 13th of May Worcester 350 - Ricardo's Chance - 10/1 1pt Win Paddy Power BOG This one is an old timer now but I think he has it in him to win a race of this nature off of a mark of 105. Before his absence he was rated in the mid 110's, competing in class 2 handicaps and showed LTO that he still retains some of that ability over a trip that was probably a little too short and on ground that was a little too soft. With another sunny day forecast for tomorrow, I am hoping the ground will ride very close to good by the time these lot go to post. Of the rest, I think a couple of the market leaders are over-rated and Terfel's Toscar especially, as he hasnt beaten any of note to give him a mark of over 100 and is potentially laying material. Oscarslad could be the one to watch, especially if he shows any improvement but at the moment I think his mark is a fair one.
-
Re: BBOTD Friday 11th of May Chester 205 - Astrology 7/2 1pt Win Bet 365 BOG Not really too much I fancy today, and normally I would leave this one alone but even though this is a 6 runner race, only 2 or maybe 3 have realistic chances. Bonfire is the even money favourite and its not hard to see why, especially given the fact he is proven on a soft surface. Evens looks a bit short and I think the O'Brien runner might just be able to pip him for the win. He won quite nicely on his debut and recorded a quick time, which did interest me into a Derby AP bet and although he is no longer entered into that race, he still has some decent engagements so O'Brien clearly thinks he has a decent horse on his hands. The price is decent given the rest of the field, and although I would have preferred to have seen a run before this, I will trust that he is fit enough to do himself justice and run a good race.
-
Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System
:lolOnly 2? I fancy the lot!! - that's what's causing me issues. -
Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System
I will be interested to see what you pick as I have two that I fancy in that race!Today has been dire. The only race of interest is the 8:00 at Kempton. According to the market, there's only 3 in it. I reckon that the race is wide open and none can be discounted. Might just be able to squeeze something out of it. If so, will post nearer the off. -
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 9th of May Right if Aidy isnt checking prices anymore I will have Larwood at 100/1 in the 800 at Kempton! :loon
-
Re: Key race - Chester Cup [weds] This is a fairly difficult race to weigh up. The ones that ended up on my shortlist all ended up being front runners and as I looked through the card a bit more there are a good half dozen that could all want to lead this, which should point to a hold up horse being fancied. Then again Chester is a sharp track and that will suit front runners so God knows how this is going to pan out!? The one horse that did take my eye a little is Tominator but given a question about the ground (even though his dam won on soft & his sire having good soft ground stats) and also that he is having his first run this season, the odds of 9/1 are too slim and I am willing to pass and sit this one out.
Jumps Racing * Saturday 19th May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Jumps Racing * Saturday 19th May Uttoxeter 625 - Flash Harriet 8/1 PaddyPower I think this one has a good chance of doing well at what is a quite decent price given some of the form of some of these. This 13 race maiden has shown some glimpses of form in her races, but came back from a break last time and ran what was probably a career best for her. The winner has since ran respectably off a mark of 99. She comes into this race on a mark of 85, and im hoping there may even be a bit more to come. That 2nd was over C&D on the same ground and in the same class so conditions are set to suit. The money came in for her that time, and it looks like it is again this time.