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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

  1. Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd of September Folkestone 500 - Sound Hearts 5/1 Boylesports BOG This horse recorded a good TS in a race at Brighton two starts back, and while I originally thought it was a flash in the pan, she backed it up again LTO coming second to a well gambled horse who was only having its second run, recording a marginally better RPR than the Brighton run. She clearly looks well handicapped and in great heart, so up against her own sex in a class she performed well in the last twice, and on a track that will suit her handy style she could take all the beating... I hope so anyway! :p

  2. Re: BBOTD Saturday 1st of September Sandown 400 - Start Right 16/1 EW Bet365 BOG Not finished too far away on his last two runs, getting hampered at Goodwood and then not having a race run to suit at York. He strikes me as being a horse in form and he should be in the mix here. Conditions are all set to suit and 16/1 is a decent price.

  3. Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th To echo what most of you have already said, I too fancy Bated Breath (if the ground is good enough) and Spirit Quartz as an EW alternative to the market leaders. In the 2.00 I have put up Rios Rosanna but I would prefer Silver Lime if it wasnt for the draw. I think this horse could be very well handicapped and if that doesnt inconvenience him then I think he could hose up. The other fancy of mine is Stipulate in the 3.05. There were a couple of others that came close in my ratings (Side Glance & potentially Barefoot Lady) but this one has the more progressive profile and as long as the ground stays good enough I think he has a great chance having not been beaten far the last twice, despite being hampered.

  4. Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August

    York 340 - Bated Breath 9/2 William Hill BOG For me this horse is the best sprinter in this hemisphere and as long as the ground stays good or firmer (which it should!) then he must surely open his Group 1 account tomorrow provided he gets a clean passage. There are a lot of good contenders but I think this one is simply a cut above the rest and with a top young jockey on board he should be right up there at the finish.
    Can I scratch this one please BH... I need to find a more reliable weather forecast! York 200 - Rios Rosanna 20/1 EW Bet365 BOG This horse has ran very solidly so far this year and is one of only a few of these to have competed over the trip, at the track and in this class. The form of her most recent 3rd has worked out ok and while I wouldnt disagree with those that would say this horse is looking held by the handicapper, I think she has a decent shout of at least placing. The horses at the top of my list all have stamina doubts, and the unexposed horses that I like the look of are drawn out wide(apart from Willie Wag Tail but not for me at that price in a race like this) so I dont think she will have to necessarily out run her mark by much to make the frame.
  5. Re: BBOTD Thursday 23rd of August

    2.00 York - 1pt win Hototo @ 11/1 (Bet365) It's plausible that I'm mad for having a pretty solid bet in such a contest. These races full of unexposed types normally aren't my cup of tea unless there's one that sticks out big time and this is one of those cases for last year's winning trainer and jockey. He has to saddle a 5lb penalty for his win in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot but that race has worked out pretty nicely and he brings the strongest form the table in the race in my opinion. I think there's a lot of deadwood in the race and only Rocky Ground really concerns me out of those with very unexposed profiles. That will probably come back to haunt me but I think my selection sets a good standard and conditions here should be absolutely bang on. He was a very encouraging close 3rd on debut having been hampered and deprived of a clear run. He came home well behind a now 80-rated animal and shaped as if there was plenty more to come. He was no match for the talented Cay Verde at Ascot next time but that one is a smart animal himself and the soft ground wouldn't have been ideal for Kevin Ryan's charge. He did manage to get off the mark over 5f at Ayr next time out, though. He raced a bit keenly before coming to challenge but still seemed a bit green and didn't do much when in front. Phillip Makin didn't really reach for the stick and I think there was still something left in the locker for all it was a narrow margin success. The runner-up is now rated 86 and the pair were 6l clear. His victory in the Windsor Castle came next as he battled on well to score by 1/2l but I don't think he was really stopping at the line and the race worked out well. Horses came out of it to win Group 2, Group 3 and listed events as well as a good run in a Group 1 and a few winning maidens and running well in handicap company. He's run well the last twice but conditions haven't been ideal for him I don't think as the heavy ground wouldn't have been up his street in the Super Sprint at Newbury. He only went down by 2 lengths in the end and gave plenty of weight to most of his rivals. There's a 9lb swing today with the winner of that event which can see the form reversed in my eyes. Hototo ran in the Molecomb at Goodwood last time but that wasn't an ideal test for him. He's not an absolute speed merchant which can be necessary there, but stayed on to be 3rd in the end and looked ill at ease on the undulating track. He did well to finish 3rd in my eyes and showed that he'd relish the step up to 6f. He gets that today on ground that suits and the flat track could prove pivotal to him as he has looked uncomfortable when facing undulations. He's got rock solid form and should get a nice lead into the race without being far away. I like those tactics at York and Phillip Makin has chosen this one over Ryan's other (no forlorn hope) runner. He's drawn high, surrounded by a huge amount of pace so should have a nice run into the contest so long as Makin doesn't go off too fast.
    Good choice! I backed both of Ryan's runners but put the wrong one up on here... That will teach me not to be greedy and go for the bigger price! ha
  6. Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August York 340 - Bated Breath 9/2 William Hill BOG For me this horse is the best sprinter in this hemisphere and as long as the ground stays good or firmer (which it should!) then he must surely open his Group 1 account tomorrow provided he gets a clean passage. There are a lot of good contenders but I think this one is simply a cut above the rest and with a top young jockey on board he should be right up there at the finish.

  7. Re: BBOTD Thursday 23rd of August York 200 - Indian Jade 20/1 PaddyPower BOG Not my usual type of bet this one but I think the form of this one's 8th in the Coventry has worked out extremely well with a lot of the horses infront going on to win or place in Group races. He faded out of it a little at the end and maybe the ground wasnt quite quick enough or the climb took it out of him but he has been rested and presumably saved for this race. That form is probably the best on offer even if he was beaten 8 lengths and with conditions looking as though they will play to his strengths, I think 20/1 is too big. On jockey bookings he is the second string, but he has the dependable Graham Lee on his back tomorrow which I personally see as a plus.

  8. Re: BBOTD - Sunday 19th August Pontefract 345 - Artistic Jewel 9/1 WilliamHill BOG In my opinion the profile of this horse should suit these conditions very well. Having already won a Listed race as a 2yo and narrowly missing out as a 3yo at Haydock, she comes here without a penalty and has posted some of the best TS figures and most consistant RPR's of the lot. This track should suit her running style and the ground is also in her favour.

  9. Re: BBOTD Friday 17th of August Catterick 815 - Tamara Bay 5/1 Bet365 BOG This horse is a game front runner who should be suited to this sharp track. She has done well on the last couple of occasions without quite getting her head in front but with the conditions set to suit and from a decent draw I am expecting a big run. The favourite is also a front runner which could cause the selection some problems.

  10. Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August Nmk 240 - Voodoo Prince 14/1 EW bet365 bog This horse ran a couple of really good races last year and caught my eye as one to potentially follow. He was late out this year and ran on ground he wouldnt have liked, over a trip too short and he was given a delicate ride. Tomorrow sees him back into the conditions he will enjoy and with the trainer slowly starting to find his feet, I think there is a good chance of a least making the frame. Of the rest, the 2 market leaders look to have suspicious form and look to be rated higher than what they have achieved whilst the potential danger could be Odin who hasnt done badly in his recent runs.

  11. Re: BBOTD Tuesday 14th of August

    A3.20 Wannabe King 0.5pt E/W 18/1 SportingBet In truth it's shown nothing in its 3 horses for the Harker stable, but I think he might have kept something back for todays race. Everything looks set for a decent race today, it's won off a 12lb higher mark as recently as last year and the jockey takes off a further 7lb so it could in theory be really well in if reproducing anything like that form. I've never even heard of the jockey before to be honest but the trainer has used him 12 times during which he's notched up 3 wins so he's clearly happy to use him when the horse has a chance. The jockey also has a 1 from 1 strike rate at the track and the trainer has one of the best strike rates at the track of the trainers represented in this race.
    For the love and honour of JAYSUS! Not another one.... :loon Well done mate, nice winner!
    Exactly what I was thinking! How the hell are we meant to catch up if you keeping backing these massive price winners! :clap
  12. Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

    English racing is in dire straights in my opinion, can someone tell me why we need 3 AW meetings in the middle of the Summer?? Its just going downhill fast, i know the AW racing has its place in the calendar and does come in useful on wet, snowy monday in January but come on even the most ardent sand fans must think this is bonkers. I know the bookmakers are behind putting these fixtures on etc.... but for me one look at the Racing Post today just drives me away from another days racing. Its about time we sorted this out, we need less average meetings and something in the week for the racing fans not just fodder for those who have to have 83 races a day to have a bet in. In my opinion it should be mandatory to have a class 2 race minimum on each days racing. They could drop a fixture and use all the prize money from that to fund a decent race each day, or something like that. I know we have the likes of York coming up but i mean we should have all meetings trying to put on some quality in amongst the dross that is on the 6 cards today! Its embarrassing.
    I couldnt agree with you more... The fixture list is organised so backwards at the moment its unreal. Way too many fixtures, poor prize money, really poor low class races with horses that are more suitable for the glue factory that the racecourse. I also dont understand why we only ever have decent racing on one day of the weekend in England? Why cram in 2-4 big meetings wth group races & big handicaps at each on the Saturday and leave Sunday for a couple of smaller tracks to contest some c4-6 handicaps and sellers? Surely the racecourses are going to have more chance of pulling in big crowds on a Sunday rather than on a midweek? I always wonder who controls the quality of the racing that is being put out? Is it the BHA who orchestrate it when the fixture list comes out or is it down to the courses and to how much money they can raise in sponsorship to put up for prize money? Do the courses get any say in when they can have certain fixtures or how many they can have or is that also down to the BHA?
  13. Re: BBOTD Monday 13th of August FFos Las 450 -Circle Of Angels 5/1 Bet365 BOG I tipped this up on here LTO when it sounded like he was the best horse in the race only to be produced too late by Jamie Spencer and finished a closing third. Tomorrow he has the talented Mr Doyle on his back so I am confident the same thing wont happen. The selection looks to be well handicapped based on his runs this year and I am confident he is a horse that will come in sooner or later and while I hope it is tomorrow I do have a couple of concerns. Firstly is the trip, which does look as if it will suit but he has weakened on the couple of times he has tried it in the past and my second and slightly larger worry is the rise in class. My gut feeling is that he will cope with the longer trip but the class rise makes this more of a gamble than the odds reflect. Even though I feel like I am talking myself out of this, I will give the horse another chance with the feeling that I will make my money back further down the line with him if he doesnt come in tomorrow.

  14. Re: At the end of the day I like to have a little look at the result and work out why I lost and whether I was completely wrong or whether there was another reason that might make the horse backable NTO. As I dont get to see too much racing (apart from at the weekend) I tend to read the RP comments and evaluate my 'performance' based on that. I certainly dont spend a lot of time on it though!

  15. Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

    It is a bit odd. Could they not just have normal silks but with different caps? Ie. Different shades of blue for one team' date=' different shades of green for another, red etc? Or just all green caps with spots, stripes on them etc for one team?[/quote'] Thats what I thought... or maybe team colours but different colour caps? Something has got to be better than what they did yesterday.
  16. Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round~ Deadline 2pm Sat.

    Bad luck BB...that swung both ways! Thought I was cooked when my shortie couldn't do the business and I was pretty sure your's would. Thankfully Postscript saved me from a disappointing afternoon. Always frustrating when a reserve goes in so bad luck/well done with Mince.
    It really did... Although you were a bit unlucky with Ahtoug to only get the EW return as a better jockey would have given you more of a chance! Good luck with the rest of the comp!
  17. Re: BBOTD Sat 11th August Haydock 430 - Willbeme 7/2 Bet365 BOG Like today's selection this looks like another horse massively on the upgrade. She ran well to finish third on her seasonal debut, when away from the pack and then won really well LTO whilst also looking like there is more in tank. Up against the same class of horses here with conditions to suit. Not so keen on the jockey in all honesty but I still expect this filly to be right up there at the finish with the price looking bigger than I was expecting.

  18. Re: fridays bbotd Brighton 340 - Prodigality 5/1 BetVictor I backed this horse at York last time, only to see it touched off by a nose hair and I am hoping that I will get my money back tomorrow. He looks a horse on the upgrade and he will have conditions to suit. He will also have a very decent claimer on his back who is gradually going up in my estimations with each ride he takes. The form of his last two races look quite solid (without being spectacular) and I am a little surprised to see the generous odds of 5/1 available.

  19. Re: Investing small amounts of money weekly for the antepost market. The problem with the festival is that these type of handicap horses tend to be entered into several of races, and while its possible to follow them in each and still get a return if it comes in, you can also end up with a lot of wasted money. I have back horses AP for Cheltenham fairly successfully for the past couple of years but mainly in the big races by backing and laying. You can make more money in the handicaps but they are a damn sight harder to work out IMO. Good luck if you do it though and I will certainly be keeping my eye out for what you pick :p

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