Blazing Bailey
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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 4th of August Goodwood 205 - Seeking Magic - 33/1 EW Stan James BOG I think this horse has been a little unlucky not to win a couple more of his previous races, and his last run where he still finished a creditable 9th can be forgiven considering he was stuck in a pocket when the tempo was lifted. His profile suggests he should be competitive in this and the track should play to his strengths.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup 1st Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm Goodwood 205 - Seeking Magic EW 33/1 Stan James Newmarket 145 - Cushion 6/1 Bet365 Newmarket 515 - Sir Pedro 10/1 BetVictor Reserve - 3.15 - The Fugue 4/1 Bet365 Good Luck Corky!
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Re: BBOTD 1st of August Congrats Boulder! Great day for the BBOTD with so many big prices coming in!
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Re: BBOTD 1st of August
Great shout and so unlucky not to just keep his nose in front!5:30 Goodwood 0.5pts e-w Santefisio @ 16/1 Betvictor Goes well here at Goodwood, 7 furlongs seems to be his optimum trip on turf, 10 furlong and soft ground probably didn't suit lto when well beaten, ran a close 2nd 2 starts back and that would put him in the mix here off same mark, trainer is in form and a interesting jockey booking, good draw and if the first time blinlkers have the desired effect then he should run a decent race.
Well done Nick! :clap Cracking price.2:00 Goodwood - Hurricane Higgins - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, Hills) A risky bet here really but one worth taking with Johnson's record at Goodwood with 4 year old + horses and the fact this horse could well improve for a dramatic step up in trip here. Taking on some classy horses but this horse was once rated 103 and running in Group 2/3 races last year. Now rated 95 but for a reason, after some poor efforts over a variety of trips and ground but did finish 3rd over 1 mile 6 at Newmarket back in May. Draw hasn't been kind but as we know Johnson had a winner from a poor draw in the first at Goodwood today so it's not impossible, especially over such a long trip that it may not inconvience. Really rate Joe Fanning as well so hopefully they'll be up for winning this tomorrow. Worth an EW bet with 4 places up for grabs but will either bomb out or go close in my opinion. Good luck all in the competition this month. -
Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of August Goodwood 215 - Beaufort Twelve 12/1 Bet365 BOG Looks a horse on the up & he certainly has the type of profile I like to see for a race of this type. The form of his previous runs look strong (including the best TS of all of these) and while I am hoping the ground keeps drying out, he does have good course form and he has a good draw to race handily from. I respect a lot of those ahead of him in the market especially the likes of Grandeur and potentially Prussian who I think could also run big races. EDIT - 12's no longer with BET365 but available with Ladbrokes & Stan James.
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Re: BBOTD 1st of August
NR GW 455 AMBER SILK 20/1 STAN JAMES BOG Won really well here earlier looking like a horse to follow but hasnt gone on since. Soft ground probably to blame so i aam hoping the sounder surface brings the horse back to form.Goodwood 530 - Whitefrost 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG This horse only ran 4 days ago but he came a close 2nd at York last weekend when unluckily bumping into Dimension who broke the course record. Whitefrost ran up with the pace that day and York isnt really a track you associate with front runners so his effort can be upgraded IMO. This track will suit him more in that regard and while the draw hasnt been kind, I am banking on him getting across without too much trouble. The race he contested at the weekend was a class 2 and this is a step down and he is now back on his last winning mark (progressive at the end of last year but had an awful start to this season). -
Re: BBOTD 1st of August Goodwood 530 - Whitefrost 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG This horse only ran 4 days ago but he came a close 2nd at York last weekend when unluckily bumping into Dimension who broke the course record. Whitefrost ran up with the pace that day and York isnt really a track you associate with front runners so his effort can be upgraded IMO. This track will suit him more in that regard and while the draw hasnt been kind, I am banking on him getting across without too much trouble. The race he contested at the weekend was a class 2 and this is a step down and he is now back on his last winning mark (progressive at the end of last year but had an awful start to this season).
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Re: Frankel Tomorrow It really is a shame, but at least Godolphin entered Farhh. Everyone else may well be playing for 2nd place but surely that is a big enough pot for some owners/trainers to go for!
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Re: Horrible, horrible day.... I dont suppose this will be any consolation to you but I did exactly the same with the first two (including Kirthill) and I then later watched Jacks Revenge just fail to get up by 2 necks. I really dont like Goodwood and I fail to see anything Glorious about it at all! That has stopped me picking out tomorrow horses though! :p
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Re: bbotd tues 31st Goodwood 200 - License To Till 25/1 EW BetVictor This looks to be a very competitive handicap and I quite fancy the chances of a couple of these but ones that intrigues me at a price is License To Till. He ran poorly 2 weeks ago after not getting a good break and being held up, but normally he is a solid horse who likes to make or sit just off the pace which can be an asset here at Goodwood. The draw isnt a good one, but if he breaks well this time and can make his way across to the inside rail then he has a good chance of still being up there at the finish. Mark Johnson's horses are now starting to fly, and while I would prefer to see the ground keep drying out, the selection can also handle some cut.
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1
I really fancy this horse as well and like you I am hoping for the better ground to bring about even more improvement. I also like the fact he is a horse that likes to settle out the back, as they tend to go too fast early on being too keen as they bowl down the hill, leaving them exposed to something who has saved that little bit extra.3:45 Goodwood: Dominate 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Dominate looks to be the Richard Hannon second string here, however, with Ryan Moore up he could go well on this better surface. Looking at Dominate's pedigree he is by Assertive who's best runs were on a good or even firmer going, so there is a decent chance Dominate could step up again here. Dominate is also the most lightly raced of the lineup which again gives hope for further improvement. -
Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July
Cheers for the info! I havent even been able to see the race yet, so this is very interesting to know. I have never been to Pontefract so I wasnt sure how it should ride. The Racing Post says the track it sharp yet testing, which seems a slight contradiction to me but just looking throughout the results for all the races, their definitely seems to be a benefit to riding up with the pace with only one of the races being won by a horse that didnt 'make all', 'track leaders' or 'race prominent'. I will certainly keep my eye open for the horse NTO!Just been at Ponty all afternoon and Jamie Spencer getting a lot of criticism from punters that have done their money in on him today. You mention rightly that it went from last to first at Donny under a Spencer hold up ride but then go on to say this track should suit its running style. That was the problem though as you can't ride Pontefract like you ride Donny if trying to hold a horse up and I mentioned this before the race to Whoneedsrio off this forum. Spencer attempted to come late and ballsed it up and really you need to be in the front rank turning in for home. It did well to finish where it did under that ride, follow it at a course that doesn't have a tight turn and uphill finish, maybe back at Donny and I think you'll get your money back on it. Unlucky today but poor ride by Spencer in my opinion, didn't back it either so not talking from my pocket. -
Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Pontefract 320 - Circle Of Angels - 7/2 Bet365 Looks a progressive handicapper and won really well LTO coming from last to first to steal victory on the line. The form behind that run looks solid and it was backed up with a quick TS which still makes her well handicapped off her current mark. The track should suit her running style and the trip, going & class are all fine.
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Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Carlisle 340 - Star Date 3/1 & Bright Applause 11/1 BetVictor Both of these have achieved TS figures in excess of their current handicap mark and while I feel Star Date has the possibility of more progression, the reliability of Bright Applause's figure looks a little more solid and may be a solid EW chance should the price drift a little further. Bright Applause has also run well in this class on very soft ground LTO which again gives him a small edge over Star Date.
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 29th of July Stratford 430 – Marju King 12/1 EW Ladbrokes BOG Marju King is a horse that has his fair share of frailties when it comes to getting his neck in front, but at 12/1 he is worth a go as I don’t really see him finishing outside the places. He was poor LTO on softer ground but the form of his runs before that has worked out well and the ground, class and trip will all suit. He has a jockey who knows all about him on board and who also managed to coax him to his last victory.
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 29th July Stratford 430 – Marju King 12/1 EW Ladbrokes & Bathwick Man 7/1 Win Bet365 Marju King is a horse that has his fair share of frailties when it comes to getting his neck in front, but at 12/1 he is worth a go as I don’t really see him finishing outside the places. He was poor LTO on softer ground but the form of his runs before that has worked out well and the ground, class and trip will all suit. He has a jockey who knows all about him on board and who also managed to coax him to his last victory. Bathwick Man is starting to look a little exposed but the form of his placed efforts have been very good with the winner LTO going in again & the 2nd in that race being placed in a C3 handicap. There are a couple of others to watch out for, especially Lucky Lukey at the bottom of the handicap who I expect will bounce back from his poor run LTO & also Hightown and American Art, as the former could really improve for handicaps and the latter who is difficult to weigh up on his selling/claiming form.
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 29th July Stratford 400 – Gizzit 4/1 Win PaddyPower This is an interesting little race where there are potentially a few more that I would be interested in was this over two or three more furlongs (mainly Sunny Spells & Trackmate) but seeing as it isn’t, I have gone for the mount of McCoy instead, who despite being a little short (the price not McCoy!), is proven in these conditions (despite Timeform comments suggesting he has only ran on soft/heavy!) and been a little unlucky to run into two unexposed types on his last two runs. Hopefully he can make amends here.
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 29th July Stratford 330 – Miss Safron 9/2 Bet365 -Win & Dom Ogreval 5/1 (Betfair currently) - Place Only Miss Safron won really well LTO and will look to relish these conditions. The fourth of her previous race has gone on to win since (2nd & 3rd have not raced again as yet) and the form of her 2nd the time before that hasn’t worked out badly either. She will need to improve for this step up in class, but as a lightly raced sort over fences, it is fairly likely that she can and hopefully will. Dom Ogreval is a bit of an odd selection as I don’t think he has the quality to win, but on the last few occasions he has ran in conditions similar to this he has done pretty well and not been far off. He has been dropped a few more pounds after being disappointing in soft ground LTO and I think he could certainly run into the frame today.
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday July 27th If I could bring myself to back someone's tips then it would be you Richard, especially at the moment. You're on fire!
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Re: best bet of the day sat 28th july Newmarket 400 - Rex Imperator 4/1 PaddyPower BOG This one looks to be a class horse in the making and has kept improving with every run. The way he went about his business LTO in a decent race was very impressive with the 2nd horse winning NTO. This is a competitive race but the conditions are set to suit my pick, and I am hoping to see him cruising up to the leaders before accelerating past them and putting the race to bed.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July
Finally a bloody winner... Only my second one all week!York 8.00 - Andereigo 4/1 Bet365 Looks a horse on the upgrade this year & has C&D form where he pulled away from the chasing pack despite not getting the clearest of runs. Up in class again here but he looks the type improve for the greater challenge. -
Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July Couldnt agree with you more on Zero Money, but I have to say my form has been awful these last two weeks so that will mean that he will probably finish a tailed off last! :sad
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Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July York 8.00 - Andereigo 4/1 Bet365 Looks a horse on the upgrade this year & has C&D form where he pulled away from the chasing pack despite not getting the clearest of runs. Up in class again here but he looks the type improve for the greater challenge.
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Re: BBOTD Thurs 26th July Doncaster 640 - Song of Parkes 9/1 Bet365 BOG This horse has plenty of decent form on a firmer surface which is exactly what he should get tomorrow. He has posted a couple of quick & reliable looking TS under similar conditions and the price looks to big to ignore.
stewards cup saturday
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: stewards cup saturday Iv gone with Shropshire & Es Que Love. The form of the former seems as good as enything else in this race as far as I am concerned & while I dont really want to be backing the latter, it comes up top on my figures and the sharpness of this track should suit.