[BBOTD Tuesday 24th July]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 24th July

Bloody glad i did back it :ok firmer surface made alot of difference i feel.

Great shout! Its nice to have one you have been following for a while finally pay off!

[BBOTD wed 24th July]

Re: BBOTD wed 24th July Lingfield 440 - Tis Rock N Roll - 3/1 Bet365 BOG Not much out there that interests me tomorrow apart from this one. The horse keeps improving having won two handicaps over 10f so far this year, one of which was at this course. The step up in trip should also suit (keeping on strongly each run this season) and his handy style will also be useful for this track. The price is very fair and I think a big run should be expected.

[saturdays bbotd]

Re: saturdays bbotd Ascot 355 - Van Ellis - 20/1 EW Stan James In what will be a competitive race, I think this one will have a very good chance at a decent price. He ran a quick time LTO over the same trip, while looking like he had something to spare. I have a small concern on whether he prefers tighter turning tracks but that aside he looks like a horse on the upgrade having ticked most of my boxes. The ground will more than likely ride good tomorrow (Ascot always seems to ride quicker than it suggests anyway IMO) which is what he encountered last time at Chester. I backed both Bonnie Brae & Eton Forever on their last wins but I think the former needs soft ground & the latter may not just be too high in the weights.

[Racing Chat Thread]

Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread What a production that is!

[BBOTD Sunday 15th of July]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 15th of July Stratford 350 - Passato 11/4 Paddy Power BOG In a 5 runner race this one should have the class to see of his rivals. He was a close 2nd to Doeslessthanme on his last chace start and the winner has gone in again since. He himself has won a couple of races on the flat since (latest with the 2nd winning NTO) so I am hopeful for a big run over the obstacles.

[BBOTD sat 14th July]

Re: BBOTD sat 14th July Newmarket 140 - Ardmay 10/1 Bet365 BOG In a race full of unexposed types I think this one has shown the most so far yet still has the promise of much more to come. He recorded a reliable looking TS of 90 (RPR 96) at Ayr LTO beating a subsequent winner. He has bolted up on soft ground previously so conditions shouldnt be a concern. This is the best race he would have contested but I think he is well worth a punt at the odds.

[BBOTD fri 13th july]

Re: BBOTD fri 13th july

Newmarket 150 - Sholaan 7/1 Bet365 It looks like this is going to be a very competitive race with lots of different angles to work from. Judging by TS this one could be in a different league to the majority of the others. The conditions at HQ are set to suit and I am hopeful of good run.

NR Chester 810 - Tidal Bay 6/1 Paddy Power BOG I followed this one at Epsom LTO and he was a fairly close 3rd to a horse that was clearly well handicapped on the day. He is starting to look a little bit like being in the handicappers grip but I think the ground will be a little bit more to his liking at Chester and his handy style suits the course. Hopefully he can find a little bit more improvement to nick this. The favourite did take my eye as well but he has been gambled in so much that he is no longer a betting proposition for me and in all honesty I preferred the selection more anyway.

[BBOTD fri 13th july]

Re: BBOTD fri 13th july Newmarket 150 - Sholaan 7/1 Bet365 It looks like this is going to be a very competitive race with lots of different angles to work from. Judging by TS this one could be in a different league to the majority of the others. The conditions at HQ are set to suit and I am hopeful of good run.

[BBOTD Thursday 12th of July]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July Newmarket 225 - Silver Blaze 16/1 EW William Hill In a competitive race, I think this horse has great chance of being right up there at the finish. He ran a really good & reliable looking TS LTO when finishing 2nd to Valiant (who runs earlier on the card). Conditions look to be right up his street and while there are a few dangers (namely Razorbill who I really like the lookof should the ground stay good enough), I am expecting a good run for my money.

[BBOTD - Tuesday 10th July 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 10th July 2012 WOLVES 315 VENEGAZZU 11/4 BET365 BOG This horse won well in the end Lto despite not getting the best of runs and having to run a bit wide. That win ws over CD which ticks boxes a lot of these cant and TS of that run means hr still hsd a bit in hand. Drawn well and is from a yard in form.

[Speed Figures]

Re: Speed Figures Oh right, well funny you should mention that because I have more or less come to the opinion that TS figures at tracks like Goodwood, Espom and to some extent Brighton are all pretty worthless when used to try and pick winners at any other track and to some extent its the other way round as well. Its certainly not clear cut I simply dont trust them. Similarly if I find there is a handy horse that ran around Catterick and recorded a quick TS figure, then unless there is other evidence to suggest that it is improving, it is more likely that the track suited the running style and in reality the horse should be marked down a few lbs if running over a stiffer or more galloping track. Again this works both ways.

[BBOTD Saturday 7th of July]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 7th of July Haydock 325 - War Poet 33/1 EW Bet365 BOG The price on this one is currently too big to ignore given that the conditions are now firmly in his favour. His win Doncaster on soft doesnt look too bad in the context of this race and although the form of the placed horses isnt great, it also isnt that bad. He can be excused his next two runs at Chester (track wouldnt suit his hold up style) and Newmarket (ground too quick). My worry is that every time he has stepped up to this level he has been beaten, but these are his conditions and if he ever was to get a win in this class then this would be his best chance.

[FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY]

Re: FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY

2.40 sand coral challenge hcap field of dream 80 switzerland 41 spas dancer 33 albaqaa 31 stage attraction 24 trade commissioner 16+? wide open competitive 16 runner hcap but i think im going to stick with top rated here as switzerland has been a bit disappointing of late and cant be trusted to run his best race .....if he did then could be a danger but FIELD OF DREAMS run against prince of johanne looks very classy form and is currently available at 9/1 with blue sq because of the presence of trade commisioner who won easily lto but has been raised 12 lbs in hcap and has low class rating so will need to improve a lot to take on field of dreams .....may do so but current 5/2 looks extremely poor value in comparison field of dreams 5pts e.w 9/1 blue sq

Just had a look through this one as well and worryingly I come up with something completely different. Generally when you have been posting these up recently our results have been fairly similar. This is an open handicap though and cases can be made for quite a few. My top 2 rated are Captain Bertie and Oriental Scot. The former will handle the wet conditions and it could be a return to the softer ground that is the key but even so I think he would need a career best. The latter has been fairly consistent in his last three runs (RPR between 91-93). He only has one TS that stands out to me and that was at C4 level which is a worry in this company. I think this will be one I will sit out!

[FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY]

Re: FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY

325 hay easy terms 34 dreamspeed 21 kiama bay 21 hillview boy 21 lexis boy 18 lexis boy has been installed as 3/1 fav but has been raised 10lbs and has low class rating so double negative makes extremely poor value whereas EASY TERMS has high class rating and only been raised 4lbs for recent win (didnt have best of runs that day)so looks huge value at around 10/1 !!!..plenty of others in with chances but e.w value definately easy terms easy terms 5pts e.w 11/1 paddy power

I have had a little look at this one and also think Easy Terms has a decent shout in this race and have had a couple of pennies on him. The other one that caught my eye was War Poet at 33/1 EW. His win Doncaster on soft doesnt look too bad in the context of this race and the conditions it will be under. The form of that isnt great, but also isnt bad and he can be excused his next two runs at Chester (track wouldnt suit his hold up style) and Newmarket (ground too quick). My worry is that every time he has stepped up to this level he has been beaten, but these are his conditions and if he ever was to get a win in this class then this would be his best chance.

[Speed Figures]

Re: Speed Figures Not really but I only really look at handicaps bar the big meetings. I do discard all ratings on heavy or firm as they arent very reliable and I distrust soft ground form initially unless the form looks solid.

[Bbotd - fri 6th July]

Re: Bbotd - fri 6th July Sandown 4 .35 Roayh 14/1 EW Paddy power BOG This is a bit of a long shot but l thought the price was worth the risk. The form of this one's run behind Stablemate Farhh is pretty Strong especially given that this horse is now the favourite in the Eclipse. Roayh looked to need hil first run back and then his run at Epsom can be excused due to the track and his running combined with being badly hampered at the worst time. I do have concerns about the trip especially if it gets softer but if it stays fine (As forecast) then he Should threaten at the business end.

[Goodbye All...also a warning]

Re: Goodbye All...also a warning All the best and I hope it works out for you in the end. It takes a brave man to admit his faults!

[BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 340 - Yarmouth - Irish Girls Spirit - 7/2 Bet365 BOG Dont mean to be a copy cat but like The Saint, I qute fancy the look of this one. Further to the above post, the selection ran TS of 58 (RPR 59) which gives her plenty of wiggle room tomorrow with most of the conditions set to suit. I too am a little worried about the potential rain that comes in as there are next to no sire stats for this horse to go off, and I am also concerned about how well the track will suit, being a handy horse on a predominately hold up track.

[Speed Figures]

Re: Speed Figures I purely use TS as I dont have the time to go into the depth that some of you guys do. I have to say though they dont seem to work badly and I am as much up this season as I have ever been through using them. I have to say though, I dont use them in isolation. Its important to look at the figure and assess its reliability first and the more form study I do, the better I am getting at analysing the race. Like the above post, I use a spreadsheet but mine is purely to make sure I am not wasting a bet through not checking through my main criteria (trip, ground, class, draw, running style etc). I tended to find I would get excited by a high TS figure and wonder why it was such a big price and rush to get my money on. It would only be after that I would cotton on that the conditions didnt suit anywhere as well as it did when he recorded the TS.

[BBOTD - Sat 30th June 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 30th June 2012 Newmarket 440 - Qushchi 20/1 EW Paddy Power BOG Ran well for a long way on ground that would be too soft for him at Newmarket LTO and hopefully the drying ground he gets tomorrow will be more up his street. He ran some decent times at the end of last year and while he would need to be at his best to win this, I dont think he is without the chance his price suggests.

[FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE]

Re: FLAT RACING THURS 28TH JUNE

actually at present its quite a simple method at the moment .......i just look at each horses form and only take into account about the last 6-8 runs and look to see how the horse has done off this hcap mark .........i give 5pts for a win ,3pts for 2nd ,2pts for 3rd and 1pt for a 4th ........if the horse has placed over this distance he gets 2pts and then i take the highest value place prizemoney off this mark(last 6) and scrub the last 3 digits (i.e if placed in 5000 then becomes 5 etc) add this to total and note next to horse ........if unplaced ever put a line through horse and only problem i get is judging a winner when its won cosily and just got there by nk etc ........if a horse wins by neck and is raised 6lbs i genrally treat as as finishing 3rd and if wins easily then i treat as winner as put question ......once you have the class rating you can refer to postmarks to narrow down and then i apply speed ratings to see which of the class horses has been running quickly lately ....... todays race 6f so horse 1 placed 2nd in 5000 off todays mark over 6f and today 6f would get 2+3+5 =10 horse 2 placed 2nd in 4000 off todays mark over 5f would get 4+3 =7 a horse that placed 4th off todays mark in a 15000 over 5f in the above race would get 1+15=16 but thats what you would expect as although only 4th it was better class of race so form is stronger but i would make a note as to whther he will stay 6f ?(look at previous races to see if stays 6f) if speed ratings then show that horse 1 did 77 over 6f lto and horse 2 72 over 5f ......youve got yourself a nice bet if you can find a decent price .....its still a work in progress but going along the right lines it isnt always the speed horse that wins but sometimes the horse that ground /distance conditions suit most i.e at the moment its the horse that like softish ground or have dropped to nice hcap mark .......i.e if horse has dropped to 63 today and only has form off 65 and say finished 3rd then you need to flag as possible improver at end when making choice as nicely hcapped and if horse has finished 4th off 63 and now is 61 i would rate as placed 3rd and put question mark for further study etc a horse that placed 2nd or 3rd and had been raised 2lbs or more i would rate as 4th or scrubbed as most likely wont win off this mark unless it was first run of season or high rating

Sound promising and if it keeps working like it did today then I expect to see you taking Segal's seat in a few months! :)

[BBOTD - Fri 29th June 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Fri 29th June 2012 Chester 725 - Kenyan Cat 9/2 Bet365 BOG I think this race will be perfect for this horse to get another win on the board. She is as reliable as they come and has good form over course and distance and as long as she gets a good break and takes up her usual handy position then I am confident of at least getting a good run for my money!

[RIP Campbell Gillies]

Re: RIP Campbell Gillies Absolutely gutted when I heard this news. Judging by all the comments from jockeys & people in the racing industry he was a top bloke and sorely missed. RIP.

[Flat Racing - Wednesday 27th June 2012]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 27th June 2012

Levitate could follow up his recent Doncaster victory in the Carlisle Bell today at 3:30. He's essentially unpenialised for his Doncaster win thanks to William Twiston Davies 7lb claim and if you excuse his run at Newcastle (as he lost a shoe that day) he is bang in form. Obviously he's up against some progressive sorts here' date= but he's not entirely lacking in progression himself. He had some decent soft ground runs under his belt and put in a decent display at Catterick has a few similar characteristics to Carlisle. 20/1 looks too high.

Great shout! Was on as well but only as a small stakes/worth it at a price bet. I hope you had more on! :cigar

[BBOTD - Wed 27th June 2012]

Re: BBOTD - Wed 27th June 2012 Naas 800 - Shebella 5/1 Win Paddy Power Hopefully Im not too late! Wasnt going to get involved but my hopes on this one are resting on this fillie's maiden win. The times look decent to me and the way she won also looked good. Boxed in LTO and didnt get a run so fingers crossed for a better display in conditions that should suit.