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Xtc12

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  1. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps- Tuesday 22nd November   
    13.25 Sedgefield - Champagne Socialist - 1 Pt Win @ 4\9 Bet365
  2. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up on Sunday @ 6\4 & Evens
    Rocco Storm 14.55 Sedgefield 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
    Hexham win last month has been franked and confirmed he's much improved when following up in ready fashion over C&D 19 days ago. This looks a great chance for the hat-trick. 
    Mahler Appeal 15.15 Limerick 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog)
    Lightly-raced maiden who showed improved form when second of 18 on handicap debut at Galway (24f, heavy, 6/1) 24 days ago, bad mistake last but noted keeping on (promoted to second). Worth a second look on that evidence. 
  3. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Short Priced Favs   
    1st @ 1\3
    Champagnesocialist 13.25 Sedgefield 1 pt Win @ 4\9 (bog)
    Wide-margin bumper winner and made an encouraging debut in this sphere when second in 13-runner maiden at Tramore (20.3f, good to soft) 40 days ago. Likely to improve and will take all the beating. 
  4. Like
    Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - November 2022   
    Most winners
    @vangovincontinues to be in front by 2 but the £10 target is further adrift
    @Alastairremains in a strong position (and has made the requisite number of bets !)

  5. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Short Priced Favs   
    Back with this on Friday with the start of the Ascot Meeting 
  6. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    3rd & 1st @ 8\1 today
    Don Alvaro 14.40 Wincanton 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
    Much improved when taking 8-runner handicap over C&D (good) 12 days ago, pushed out. Now 12 lb higher but could be more to come yet. 
    Scarlet and Dove 14..23 Clonmel 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
    Smart chaser. Career best when winning 4-runner Gr 2 chase (3/1) at Punchestown (21f, good to soft) by 15 lengths from Elimay, easily. Off 6 months. Expected to be bang there. 
  7. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Navan : Moonovercloon 6th @ 12\1, Hollow games 1st @ 5\1, Imagine 2nd @ 4\1, Ashdale Bob 3rd @ 10\1, Captain Guinness 1st @ 8\1 R4 50p, Changing the Rules 5th @ 15\2, Summer Melody 1st @ 14\1 R4 20p

  8. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from Wildgarden in Naps - Tuesday 15th November   
    17.45 Newcastle - Mrs U S A - 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 Bet365
  9. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Navan : Moonovercloon 6th @ 12\1, Hollow games 1st @ 5\1, Imagine 2nd @ 4\1, Ashdale Bob 3rd @ 10\1, Captain Guinness 1st @ 8\1 R4 50p, Changing the Rules 5th @ 15\2, Summer Melody 1st @ 14\1 R4 20p

  10. Sad
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Friday 11th November   
    14.30 Southwell - Donaire - 1 Pt Win @ 4\9 Bet365
  11. Haha
    Xtc12 reacted to LEE-GRAYS in Lee’s lucky 15 31 uk and Irish racing   
    Will start tomorrow one a day don’t want to inflict this on the good people on race chat till making profit ?
  12. Sad
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Wednesday 9th November   
    13.15 Ayr - Sam's Choice - 1 Pt Win @ 8/15 bet365
  13. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up 1st @ 6\4 & 1st @ 15\8 today
    Gege Ville 13.50 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
    Looked promising when making a winning start in a C&D bumper (good) on debut 11 months ago, well on top finish. Switches to hurdling with yard in red-hot form and has to be taken seriously. 
    Aljady 13.40 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 (bog)
    Useful gelding. Seven wins from 25 Flat runs. 33/1, off 15 months/first run since leaving Robert Cowell when bit below form seventh of 24 in handicap at the Curragh (6f, heavy) 14 days ago. Form choice dropped into a claimer. 
  14. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    NR & 1st @ 7\4 yesterday
    Big Changes 15.50 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
    Made second chase start a winning one in impressive fashion at Sedgefield (21.1f) last month and a penalty wasn't enough to prevent him following up at Ayr (24.1f) 8 days later. Can complete the hat-trick. 
  15. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Saturday 5th November   
    14.25 Wincanton - Hugo's New Horse - 1 Pt Win @ 2\5 Bet365
  16. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Thursday 3rd November   
    16.30 Chelmsford - Shades of Summer - 1 Pt Win @ 2\5 Bet365
  17. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from kroni in ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL   
    My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 
    The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 
    Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.
    For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.
    On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.
    The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.
    Hope this is helpful some way @MCLARKE. 
  18. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Irish Racing - EW betting   
    Dundalk : Starspangledwaves 1st @ 7\1, Kuwait Direction 4th @ 9\1, Ransom 1st @ 6\1, Alaroos 3rd @ 5\1
    Galway
    14.53 Punitive @ 5\1  1/4 1-2
    15.28 Desertmore House @ 11\1  1/5 1-3
    16.03 Bearwithmenow @ 7\1  1/5 1-5 
    16.38 Veneziano Springs @ 8\1  1/5 1-5
    17.13 Soldante @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

     
  19. Like
    Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - October 2022   
    Most winners
    @waggywisely decides not to particpate today and unless he does something reckless he should now win the competition.

  20. Like
    Xtc12 reacted to MCLARKE in BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - October 2022   
    I suspect he may keep his powder dry and see what the competition does over the next few days.
  21. Sad
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Conflict Cup   
    5th & 1st @ 10\3 yesterday
    First Officer 16.38 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog)
    Off the mark in a Salisbury handicap (1½m, good to firm) for Roger Varian in June, and improved when making a winning start for new connections back at this trip at Nottingham (heavy) recently. 8 lb rise tolerable and he's a big player. 
    Bois De Clamart 13.50 Sligo 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
    Useful hurdler. Career best when winning 14-runner handicap hurdle at Cork (19f, heavy, 5/1), soon clear. Off 6 months. Leading claims if returning in similar form. 
    Year 6

    Overall

    Think I might need a bit of a miracle to turn it around in Year 6 for GB. Still hanging in there with an overall profit in GB of 1.5% (the only highlight)
  22. Thanks
    Xtc12 got a reaction from monty63 in Information   
    @monty63 you have me thinking now ...... I like the idea of the treble 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 ...... maybe 1 Pt Win for the first bet bank if a winner. Loser start again. Winner 2nd time double up.
    Just looking at todays football you could have : Stuttgart 1\3, CD Algar 2\9 & Radnik Bijeljina @ 2\11 pays 19.25 ....... lets see.
  23. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from harry_rag in Information   
    @monty63 you have me thinking now ...... I like the idea of the treble 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 ...... maybe 1 Pt Win for the first bet bank if a winner. Loser start again. Winner 2nd time double up.
    Just looking at todays football you could have : Stuttgart 1\3, CD Algar 2\9 & Radnik Bijeljina @ 2\11 pays 19.25 ....... lets see.
  24. Sad
    Xtc12 got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Monday 17th October   
    17.05 Plumpton - Blade Runner - 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 Bet365
  25. Like
    Xtc12 got a reaction from jonjo in Conflict Cup   
    Double Up today 1st @ 6\4 & 13\8
    Times Are Blue 13.35 Hereford 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
    Champs Elysees gelding who did well to overcome both inexperience and the run of the race when making a winning debut in bumper at Plumpton in May. Obvious claims switched to hurdles. 
    Molly's Mango 17.10 Punchestown 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
    €75,000 3-y-o, Clovis Du Berlais filly. Half-sister to bumper winner Kracka Nut. Dam unraced half-sister to top-class hurdler/very smart chaser (stayed 3¼m) More of That. Appealing newcomer for top yard. 
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