Mindfulness

Well it will be interesting to see the Leicester lineup today to see how serious they are actually taking the Palace game. Obviously UCL quarter-finals is massive for them and they're still in it. Wes Morgan is out which is a boost for Palace.
1.80 for Palace is not really juicy enough for me to get involved today, Leicester are a good team in good form and they can hurt you when they go full cavalier. It's true that Palace played with great confidence against Arsenal which is encouraging but just because we won 3-0 doesn't mean we're gonna roll over the next team that shows up, football doesn't follow that logic.
Palace seems to be the public bet of the day I hope it works out for everyone  but I am not getting involved as I think markets have priced this one correctly.
 
 

I think Burnley +1 @ 1.98 is the fair price to be honest, I don't see much value in it. It's true that Burnley should put in a much better defensive performance at Goodison park compared to that Leicester team last week but even so. Burnley are just so poor on the road, Everton have so much more firepower, ELO reflects this with 1.5 goal advantage to home team.
You've got to ask yourself what are the reasons to back Burnley here? The price isn't really there when you think about it, team news isn't disruptive, no reason to think Everton are fading.
To me it's a shot in the dark.

Yeh I mean it makes sense since Smarties would be the thinking man's egg, and there clearly wasn't a lot of that going on WHEN YOU MADE THAT BET STEVE!!!
Have you any idea of the lengths that people are going to in an attempt to bail you out here?!?!?! And you're making requests?

Well it will be interesting to see the Leicester lineup today to see how serious they are actually taking the Palace game. Obviously UCL quarter-finals is massive for them and they're still in it. Wes Morgan is out which is a boost for Palace.
1.80 for Palace is not really juicy enough for me to get involved today, Leicester are a good team in good form and they can hurt you when they go full cavalier. It's true that Palace played with great confidence against Arsenal which is encouraging but just because we won 3-0 doesn't mean we're gonna roll over the next team that shows up, football doesn't follow that logic.
Palace seems to be the public bet of the day I hope it works out for everyone  but I am not getting involved as I think markets have priced this one correctly.
 
 

Well it will be interesting to see the Leicester lineup today to see how serious they are actually taking the Palace game. Obviously UCL quarter-finals is massive for them and they're still in it. Wes Morgan is out which is a boost for Palace.
1.80 for Palace is not really juicy enough for me to get involved today, Leicester are a good team in good form and they can hurt you when they go full cavalier. It's true that Palace played with great confidence against Arsenal which is encouraging but just because we won 3-0 doesn't mean we're gonna roll over the next team that shows up, football doesn't follow that logic.
Palace seems to be the public bet of the day I hope it works out for everyone  but I am not getting involved as I think markets have priced this one correctly.
 
 

I know I know but 50 nights in a row at the 02 would have bloody killed us.

Please give what you can guys; @StevieDay1983 has had to kiss those 7.5 Morrisons easter eggs goodbye. The Man U players don't care, they just collect their cheques and return to their gated communities after each low scoring stalemate.
I actually backed Man Utd to win the Europa League @ 2.6 a couple of weeks ago but this latest incident sickens me.

I know I know but 50 nights in a row at the 02 would have bloody killed us.

Oh ok, thought I was being shown the door for a minute
I'll call addpea and tell him the suicide pact is cancelled...
For now.

Seriously lads why didn't we take Palace -2.5 AH line? Complete oversight by all concerned, especially me. I can only apologise.

Seriously lads why didn't we take Palace -2.5 AH line? Complete oversight by all concerned, especially me. I can only apologise.

Can't really get a read for this game mate, there's just too much weird stuff with missing players etc. Sounds obvious but it'll come down to whoever shows up on the night. I just don't see a big error in the prices as things stand, I think markets are in the right region here. I'm just gonna chill and watch the game, see what madness unfolds, if any.

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

GL @Tiffy
No bets for me this midweek round but COYP!!!

Thanks @StevieDay1983, had a mixed bag with the coirners last week! But managed to pull some others out of the bag over the weekend.
(Celtic -1, Cov & Oxf BTTS, Arse V City BTTS & O2.5 treble at over 4/1 one of the best). Then lumpled large on Barca last night too.
Surely Leicester & Spurs are bankers, and why are Palarse over 5/1 @Mindfulness, surely they would be worth backing on the X2?
Great shout by the way on backing them against Chelseas. A Chelsea supporting customer of mine had a fiver on Palace to win 2-1 at 33/1!!
Are you going to sell Zaha again? Think Brighton could be interested for next season....

Chelsea V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +1.75 @ 1.775 (Matchbook)
Palace are a fair bit bigger than I can make them here. Palace +1 line should be around 2.2 imo but instead we're getting around 2.9 which opens the door for a standard value bet in this situation.
No real need to blabber on as I've already posted a fair amount about an improving Palace in recent weeks. We really do look like a proper Allardyce team now; confident, organised and hard to beat.
Chelsea are of course the best team in the league this season and they do have the ability to crush anyone by 3 or 4 so punters opposing them with big handicaps can still get slapped in the face without too much complaint. 
I feel I have to get involved here given the situation and the market price. We get half draw cover in the event of Palace trailing by a goal late on and getting hit by a sucker punch counter when pushing for the equaliser.
Team news hasn't thrown up any suprises.
Be interested to see how this one goes.

Chelsea V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +1.75 @ 1.775 (Matchbook)
Palace are a fair bit bigger than I can make them here. Palace +1 line should be around 2.2 imo but instead we're getting around 2.9 which opens the door for a standard value bet in this situation.
No real need to blabber on as I've already posted a fair amount about an improving Palace in recent weeks. We really do look like a proper Allardyce team now; confident, organised and hard to beat.
Chelsea are of course the best team in the league this season and they do have the ability to crush anyone by 3 or 4 so punters opposing them with big handicaps can still get slapped in the face without too much complaint. 
I feel I have to get involved here given the situation and the market price. We get half draw cover in the event of Palace trailing by a goal late on and getting hit by a sucker punch counter when pushing for the equaliser.
Team news hasn't thrown up any suprises.
Be interested to see how this one goes.

@StevieDay1983 I don't bet on Serie A these days as I don't have time to watch the games on top of all the other stuff I do. It's ashame cos I like Italian football but there are more lucrative areas in the world of gambling right now.
I don't rule out a return to betting on Italian football one day but for now it's not on my radar.

@StevieDay1983 I think EPL has produced a really terrible card this week for 1X2 and AH markets. Bournemouth V Swansea, Palace V Watford, Sunderland V Burnley, West Ham V Leicester and Manchester City V Liverpool are all nightmare games to predict. I just don't seem to have a read on any of the games this week + ELO ratings aren't really helping due to what the fixture machine has produced - a lot of weird clashes.
One thing I will say is that markets just don't know how to price Palace atm. HW is odds on and this is just ridiculous. A draw is definitely possible for that game as both teams are similar in terms of attacking strength. Palace have the better defense imo but that maybe offset by the fact that all the pressure is on us and we often choke in our home games.
Maybe @andrewcalo and his Man U hating ways can find something here. Perhaps a saucy Middlesbrough -3 could be in the offing?!?!?!?!?

Sorry if there is already a thread on this, couldn't find one.
I'm interested in the relatively new world of trading players on a football stock exchange, perhaps there could be an opportunity for us punters here.
I don't know how many different sites offer this kind of platform, football INDEX is one:
https://trade.footballindex.co.uk/
Is anybody else involved in this kind of trading at the momment? What circumstances shift player value? Is it similar to fantasy football in terms of price shifts?
I'm also interested in earning money from fantasy football, I know the lounge does a good league at the momment. Are there any platforms currently available to play fantasy football for money? Does anyone have any experience with draft kings?
https://www.draftkings.co.uk/
 

@StevieDay1983 I think EPL has produced a really terrible card this week for 1X2 and AH markets. Bournemouth V Swansea, Palace V Watford, Sunderland V Burnley, West Ham V Leicester and Manchester City V Liverpool are all nightmare games to predict. I just don't seem to have a read on any of the games this week + ELO ratings aren't really helping due to what the fixture machine has produced - a lot of weird clashes.
One thing I will say is that markets just don't know how to price Palace atm. HW is odds on and this is just ridiculous. A draw is definitely possible for that game as both teams are similar in terms of attacking strength. Palace have the better defense imo but that maybe offset by the fact that all the pressure is on us and we often choke in our home games.
Maybe @andrewcalo and his Man U hating ways can find something here. Perhaps a saucy Middlesbrough -3 could be in the offing?!?!?!?!?

I think that Celta will be with minds on Krasnodar as they really want to reach next phase and stay in European competition (Sisto, Guidetti, Fontas and Jonny are not even included in squad). While on the other hand almost full squad of Villarreal with whole week of preparation on Celta who is among the teams with lots of weaknesses this season, conceding 44 goals on 25 matches and I can not see Villarreal losing on Balaidos today. Villarreal AH 0! Whole analysis here!

"Both managers prefers to play good, attractive football, both teams has decent attacks, both missing player in defence, Las Palmas scored a lot of goals through counters, while Espanyol has problems with defending them, while on the other hand Las Palmas has difficulties in defending crosses, good headers, and Espanyol has both Moreno and Caicedo, pretty strong in aerial duels so.. goals here!"
I am going with over here! Whole analysis herel