Mindfulness

The Mandanda situation is weird. He did well for us initially then dropped a couple of clangers and 'got injured'. He didn't play for us again after that and it wasn't all to do with an injury. Hennessey's consistency and performances were not good enough until Allardyce took over and then he became much more assured, probably due to new coaching staff. The standard for first choice keepers in EPL is very high these days so I would expect Palace to be looking at this area. In defence of Hennessey he has improved, but can he stay improved?

Right folks, as soon as the season ends you should start planning for the next one. Keep following the markets in the comming weeks and lookout for opportunities.
@StevieDay1983 Any chance of getting some odds posted for new campaign? Winner, Top 4, Relegation etc.
@Tiffy So you punks finally made it back to the big time huh? Congrats! Look forward to your input in the EPL threads this year.
@Kenton Schweppes Likewise, crazy to see Huddersfield back in the top tier, big achievement. Be good to see you on the EPL threads this year.
@andrewcalo I guess you called in all your favours as neither of us will have to ply our trade in the second tier next year. Just aswell since 24 teams and countless midweek cards isn't something I miss.
@Sir Puntalot We've been advocating the ELO ratings for a while now and I feel they're beginning to believe.

Stay mindful peeps.

Top 10 Finish – Crystal Palace @ 7.0 (Bet Stars)
I have to get on this one early as I don’t think the price will hold if Palace make a sound appointment and surely it will deteriorate as this market matures in any case?!?!
Bet Stars seem to be one of the first operators offering top 10 market for EPL and it looks like they’ve handed the task of setting the prices to a kid on work experience. The price disparity between some of the clubs is frankly hilarious when you compare it to the reality on the ground.
In my view there is very little daylight between the EPL’s mid-table sides (8th – 16th approx) and so you have 8 or 9 reasonably matched teams going for the remaining 3 positions in the top half. In my view the mid-table group should all be around 3.0 – 4.0 but instead we have a bizarre range with Leicester @ 2.25 and Watford @ 9.0.   
I feel Southampton are probably 8th best team in the league as things stand but question marks over manager, key players and club ownership means 1.47 for top half finish is too short at the time of writing this.
Ultimately Palace are 7.0 because they were involved in the relegation dog fight right up to the penultimate week of 2016-2017 and they currently have no manager. I agree with @StevieDay1983 that Palace have reached an inflection point but when you look at the quality of the playing squad and the fact that they do not need to rush new managerial appointment then I take the view they will compete for top 10 finish this campaign rather than another relegation dog fight.
Don’t forget Palace finished 4pts off 10th in 2016-2017, I don’t think 7.0 will hold unless they appoint a total clown. This to me is the first clear value bet of the new season. There’s no guarantee of success but make this selection 1000 times in these exact same circumstances and you should be in profit at the end of it. Bet Stars top 10 market seems immature here.

Yeh fair enough mate, there's not much we can say in detail till August but try and follow the ante-post markets over the comming weeks if you can as they do produce some good opportunities here and there. Initial price errors don't last as the markets mature.
I haven't heard anything about Stockdale but I would not be suprised if we try and buy a keeper this window.
In Stevie P we trust.

Yes, thanks @Mindfulness I am looking forward to seeing what the new season brings. We are all waiting to see what signings will be made over the summer, so I reserve judgment until then.
Looks like we are still waiting for your mob to appoint a manager. I heard last week that Stockdale is set to sign for you, which can only come down to money. Brighton will have made him a decent offer, but probably not as high as you would go.
I like the look of Bournemouth to get relegated at 7/1 at the moment. I have a feeling they will turn into the new Pompey, with a chairman spending foolishly on players before he invested in the infrastructure. If Howe leaves, then it will all fall apart there. I am convinced he will go to a better club sooner or later.
Burnley too, for similar reasons, especially if you appoint Dyche.
Dont forget that when Parrish says "Long term" he means 6 months max!

Top 10 Finish – Crystal Palace @ 7.0 (Bet Stars)
I have to get on this one early as I don’t think the price will hold if Palace make a sound appointment and surely it will deteriorate as this market matures in any case?!?!
Bet Stars seem to be one of the first operators offering top 10 market for EPL and it looks like they’ve handed the task of setting the prices to a kid on work experience. The price disparity between some of the clubs is frankly hilarious when you compare it to the reality on the ground.
In my view there is very little daylight between the EPL’s mid-table sides (8th – 16th approx) and so you have 8 or 9 reasonably matched teams going for the remaining 3 positions in the top half. In my view the mid-table group should all be around 3.0 – 4.0 but instead we have a bizarre range with Leicester @ 2.25 and Watford @ 9.0.   
I feel Southampton are probably 8th best team in the league as things stand but question marks over manager, key players and club ownership means 1.47 for top half finish is too short at the time of writing this.
Ultimately Palace are 7.0 because they were involved in the relegation dog fight right up to the penultimate week of 2016-2017 and they currently have no manager. I agree with @StevieDay1983 that Palace have reached an inflection point but when you look at the quality of the playing squad and the fact that they do not need to rush new managerial appointment then I take the view they will compete for top 10 finish this campaign rather than another relegation dog fight.
Don’t forget Palace finished 4pts off 10th in 2016-2017, I don’t think 7.0 will hold unless they appoint a total clown. This to me is the first clear value bet of the new season. There’s no guarantee of success but make this selection 1000 times in these exact same circumstances and you should be in profit at the end of it. Bet Stars top 10 market seems immature here.

Of course, @Mindfulness. What do you think of your odds for both the title and relegation? 1/10 of the odds Leicester were the season they won it. Get Claudio in! Hahaha.

Right folks, as soon as the season ends you should start planning for the next one. Keep following the markets in the comming weeks and lookout for opportunities.
@StevieDay1983 Any chance of getting some odds posted for new campaign? Winner, Top 4, Relegation etc.
@Tiffy So you punks finally made it back to the big time huh? Congrats! Look forward to your input in the EPL threads this year.
@Kenton Schweppes Likewise, crazy to see Huddersfield back in the top tier, big achievement. Be good to see you on the EPL threads this year.
@andrewcalo I guess you called in all your favours as neither of us will have to ply our trade in the second tier next year. Just aswell since 24 teams and countless midweek cards isn't something I miss.
@Sir Puntalot We've been advocating the ELO ratings for a while now and I feel they're beginning to believe.

Stay mindful peeps.

Andrew I can't believe I'm hearing this from you, you've had such an objective and unbiased view of Man Utd up to this point.

Don't worry @Tiffy, if history has taught us anything, it's to be positive about next season:
 

@Tiffy Will do.

Don't worry @Tiffy, if history has taught us anything, it's to be positive about next season:
 

Mate don't get caught up in all the hype. The markets are such clowns when it comes to Palace games, they always make us such big favourites in home games against bottom half teams but that is where we have been most vulnerable for 2 years now. I keep saying it on these boards. It's such a high pressure game and Palace will need to recover some of their leaders on the pitch if they are to be confident of a positive result. We need Cabaye back and to recover at least one of our injured centre backs from Sakho, Dann or Tomkins. Even if we do, odds on for a Palace victory is a total joke although I will add that game is difficult to price due to the unusual circumstances which surround it. Palace -0.25 line in the region of EVS could be considered a break even valuation in this situation, markets are nowhere near that at this present time.
As for The Swans, they should be full of confidence after the Everton victory but it's still all on the line, if anything I think their price is even worse than Palace's. Relegation has been a mind trick for Sunderland and now they play with the wind in their sales and zero pressure on them. ELO and away form is not favourable to Swansea - 1.85 for away win is a joke as game could easily end in a draw.
I want Palace and Swansea victories this weekend but I sure won't be betting on them.

Mate don't get caught up in all the hype. The markets are such clowns when it comes to Palace games, they always make us such big favourites in home games against bottom half teams but that is where we have been most vulnerable for 2 years now. I keep saying it on these boards. It's such a high pressure game and Palace will need to recover some of their leaders on the pitch if they are to be confident of a positive result. We need Cabaye back and to recover at least one of our injured centre backs from Sakho, Dann or Tomkins. Even if we do, odds on for a Palace victory is a total joke although I will add that game is difficult to price due to the unusual circumstances which surround it. Palace -0.25 line in the region of EVS could be considered a break even valuation in this situation, markets are nowhere near that at this present time.
As for The Swans, they should be full of confidence after the Everton victory but it's still all on the line, if anything I think their price is even worse than Palace's. Relegation has been a mind trick for Sunderland and now they play with the wind in their sales and zero pressure on them. ELO and away form is not favourable to Swansea - 1.85 for away win is a joke as game could easily end in a draw.
I want Palace and Swansea victories this weekend but I sure won't be betting on them.

Palace were always going to get swamped today. First of all, a really good performance from City - one of their best this season and Pep was clearly pleased. Palace had Martin Kelly and Jefferey Schlupp at centre-back, Kelly is ok alongside a leader centre-back like Sakho but struggles without a good partner. This was the first time in Schlupp's career he played at centre-back!!! Palace are not a ball retention team at the best of times but we are better when Cabaye is fit and playing (a rarity these days). Too many individuals underperformed for Palace today but I wont be too critical as our destiny is still in our hands and must keep faith that the team will bounce back for key home game V Hull next week.
Sane really good, Fernandinho excellent, De Bruyne incredible - his anticipation and positional awareness is top level.

It was fucking shit.

A home win for Hull looks like a formality here and I would certainly not argue against it. I will say markets are a bit overzealous with prices though. In my view Sunderland +1.0 line should be around 1.75 - 1.80 but instead we're getting a slightly generous 2.17 at the time of writing this.
Burnley V West Brom is also a game that interests me as you can get the away team +0.50 @ 1.72. I'm wondering if there's a distortion in the market as Burnley have won more home games than their performances have warranted this season imo. While West Brom have lost their last 4 league games on the bounce (3 of which were by a narrow margin). Need to look at this one more closely but I just feel it may have been priced up differently when you remove some of the anomalous factors.

Yes we're well into silly season but don't forget the ELO - a 2.5 goal advantage to Leicester
Can't really blame the markets for pricing it the way they have from ratings perspective.
It's a game I don't want to get involved with but I agree that backing Leicester @ 4/7 is no value despite ELO.

Did not realise Man City's full-backs had created so little this season. A grand total of 2 assists between Kolarov, Clichy, Sagna and Zabaleta:
https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/167/Show/England-Manchester-City
Interesting article in the Guardian about possible replacements:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2017/apr/25/manchester-city-players-sign-full-backs-pep-guardiola
 
 

We were used to see defensive midfielders as very important role in last 10 years.. for example during Spain and Barcelona "golden times" role of Busquets was crucial, but as always, football changed now as well, and even if "Busquets" role of defensive midfielder still works just fine in some tactics, if we are taking a look to top teams in the world - I would point out Real Madrid -> Marcelo and Carvajal. They are simply amazing. Creative, with pace, great ball control, strong in attack and defence, with precise crosses, both able to move into the midfield, especially Marcelo. With full backs overlaps you are much more dangerous, because there is only few teams where wingers are working hard in defence (Chelsea). Another team, where full backs are crucial is of course Monaco which is really unlucky. After the match against Manchester City, they haven't played any matches with both Mendy on the left and Sidibe on the right. In my opinion, Jardim fcuk*d up the match against Juventus, with Dirar (winger otherwise) on right full back position, while Toure (first backup of RB and LB) was on the bench. He could leave Sidibe on the rigth, and put Toure or even Raggi on the left as he did against BVB. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that full backs are becoming crucial part of "new" tactics. Even Juve with Sandro and Alves is great, but in my opinion no one can compare with Real Madrid.
That it won't be off topic, Tottenham is great example in PL. Rose and Walker are amazing as well, but much more physical than Marcelo&Carvajal for example. I would like to see Mendy and Sidibe/Toure under Guardiola, I think that with two strong modern full backs, they would be much stronger. Also in Conte's Chelsea, wing backs are crucial for hit tactics, but he is using different approaches.

First of all, I need to admit that I didn't watch too many matches of City lately, but I would like to wait till the end of the season and take a look of whole picture then. Fact is that he "failed", but for me personally, it isn't a fail if you are without trophies. Once again, I need to say that this City squad is far from brilliant. We've seen them so (too) many times this season, preparing 100% chances, but missing all of them. I believe that if you're not fan of the way how they play, it's the easiest to point on the Guardiola. Opta stats are showing something totally different,.. they are among the top teams when it comes to creating chances, their pass&position maps are mostly great, but again.. goal conversion rate is disastrous. Just imagine Monaco with that many created chances... ExpG of City is always high, always high enough to win the match, but they failed so many times. Where is the reason? I don't know. But I think, that they need at least 3-4 players in this team. On the other hand, Gundogan was brought to City as key midfielder, but as soon as he started playing really good, he picked up an injury and he finished the  season. We all know what happened with Gabriel as well.. 
Otherwise.. full backs are crucial for his style of football. I am not surprised that he is forcing his way of football. I said on start of the season, that he won't change his way even if they won't reach anything. We'll never see him playing with 8 players on his half.
p.s. I am adding some pictures from Manchester derby, which finished in the way how it shouldn't have for City.. as many of other matches.. Guardiola said, that in final third of the pitch, everything relies on players quality.. Sane is amazing in second part of this season, but what about others? 

A home win for Hull looks like a formality here and I would certainly not argue against it. I will say markets are a bit overzealous with prices though. In my view Sunderland +1.0 line should be around 1.75 - 1.80 but instead we're getting a slightly generous 2.17 at the time of writing this.
Burnley V West Brom is also a game that interests me as you can get the away team +0.50 @ 1.72. I'm wondering if there's a distortion in the market as Burnley have won more home games than their performances have warranted this season imo. While West Brom have lost their last 4 league games on the bounce (3 of which were by a narrow margin). Need to look at this one more closely but I just feel it may have been priced up differently when you remove some of the anomalous factors.

@StevieDay1983 Yeh it's an interesting one tonight. ELO has the teams finely balanced at present and as you said, Watford pretty strong at home this season with only 5 defeats thus far. My problem is that they tend to do well against lesser sides and then loose to the big guns. It's also worrying that Watford lost the reverse of this fixture 6-1 Although Mane and Lallana featured heavily that day - Watford cannot handle strong flank attacks.
If Lallana remains out then Watford +1.0 @ close to EVS could be a loose change bet but nothing more.

After 60 minutes against Tottenham midweek, Palace were completely knackered. Allardyce warned that the players would be fatigued and it really showed in the 2nd half of that game. Burnley is Palace's 3rd game in 6 days, I don't expect Zaha and Townsend to be at their athletic best today which will diminish the quality advantage we have over Burnley.
Sakho done his knee V Tottenham and Palace now have their 3 first choice centre-backs out for Burnley game and probably the rest of the season. Kudos to Martin Kelly who is performing well at the momment.
No advange for Palace in ELO ratings, in fact, Burnley have performed better over the last 2 games!!!
We all know that Burnley haven't won away all season but you should look at each situation individually when placing a bet.
There is no way that Palace should be odds on favourite here imo, the home team will not be able to perform to their best for the entirety of the game due to factors mentioned. Burnley will have more energy and will be more able to retain their concentration better in the key situations.
I'm pretty confident that if you took Palace @ 1.80 in this particular situation 1000 times over you would not be in profit at the end of it. I've warned people in the past about taking Palace when they're the short priced favorites at home, it's no different here, if anything it's even more sketchy this time.
I don't like to make predictions (more important to look at odds) but I feel Palace V Burnley will end in a draw today.
Having said all that, GL, I hope your bet wins!!!