Weekend > May 5th - 8th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

@sajtion, @discipline, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, and @WinningAdvice.

A packed weekend of fixtures for us here. Arsenal versus Manchester United is the highlight with the race for the top four hotting up. I'm staying away from that because both teams are inconsistent as anything right now. A few other decent prices going around though. European spots up for grabs and the relegation battle intensifying. Will it be curtains for Middlesbrough at Stamford Bridge? It's looking more a case of when not if so this weekend could be it. Swansea could also find themselves on the brink if they lose against Everton and Hull beat Sunderland. The likes of Burnley, West Ham, and Crystal Palace still haven't reached their desired 40 point safety mark yet either.

What bets are you all plotting this weekend?

[Mindfulness]

I think Palace will loose no problem this weekend due to issues at centre-back + confidence will have been crushed after that Burnley game.

I am genuinely interested to hear what @Pep004 has to say about Man City's attacking play at present. To me it seems they have struggled with integration and connectivity almost all season, a bizarre Frankenstein creation of some very talented individuals and some 'Pep players'.

[Mindfulness]

A home win for Hull looks like a formality here and I would certainly not argue against it. I will say markets are a bit overzealous with prices though. In my view Sunderland +1.0 line should be around 1.75 - 1.80 but instead we're getting a slightly generous 2.17 at the time of writing this.

Burnley V West Brom is also a game that interests me as you can get the away team +0.50 @ 1.72. I'm wondering if there's a distortion in the market as Burnley have won more home games than their performances have warranted this season imo. While West Brom have lost their last 4 league games on the bounce (3 of which were by a narrow margin). Need to look at this one more closely but I just feel it may have been priced up differently when you remove some of the anomalous factors.

[StevieDay1983]

Burnley to beat West Brom at 2.20 also seems decent value given Burnley's home record. What do you think?

[andrewcalo]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Burnley to beat West Brom at 2.20 also seems decent value given Burnley's home record. What do you think?

Where's the mug punt this week? You know the bookies have put one of those odds in there knowing we'll go for it and destroy all our accas. 

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Where's the mug punt this week? You know the bookies have put one of those odds in there knowing we'll go for it and destroy all our accas. 

You're right. It does seem too good to be true. Plus, Tony Pulis fucking hates me. Whenever I back his team to win, they lose. Whenever I back them to lose, they win. Whenever I double chance, well, you can guess what they bloody do!

[andrewcalo]

Hull to slip up I reckon. Over confident at home and Sunderland with nothing to lose.

[andrewcalo]

Because it's a must win and people are betting on them.

[Sir Puntalot]

7/1 on West Ham is absolutely ridiculous - these teams hate each other and West Ham have a history of turning them over. My head says Spurs will win, but my head also tells me they are massively underpriced!

[StevieDay1983]

33 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

7/1 on West Ham is absolutely ridiculous - these teams hate each other and West Ham have a history of turning them over. My head says Spurs will win, but my head also tells me they are massively underpriced!

Yeah, these kind of odds at this stage of the season involving a team that has pressure on them to get a result against a reasonably local rival is asking for trouble. Bilic is the sort of manager that can still get his team up for the big games as well. My only reasoning behind the long price on West Ham is the media speculation surrounding Bilic's future.

[Pep004]

On 2017-5-2 at 1:36 PM, Mindfulness said:

I think Palace will loose no problem this weekend due to issues at centre-back + confidence will have been crushed after that Burnley game.

I am genuinely interested to hear what @Pep004 has to say about Man City's attacking play at present. To me it seems they have struggled with integration and connectivity almost all season, a bizarre Frankenstein creation of some very talented individuals and some 'Pep players'.

First of all, I need to admit that I didn't watch too many matches of City lately, but I would like to wait till the end of the season and take a look of whole picture then. Fact is that he "failed", but for me personally, it isn't a fail if you are without trophies. Once again, I need to say that this City squad is far from brilliant. We've seen them so (too) many times this season, preparing 100% chances, but missing all of them. I believe that if you're not fan of the way how they play, it's the easiest to point on the Guardiola. Opta stats are showing something totally different,.. they are among the top teams when it comes to creating chances, their pass&position maps are mostly great, but again.. goal conversion rate is disastrous. Just imagine Monaco with that many created chances... ExpG of City is always high, always high enough to win the match, but they failed so many times. Where is the reason? I don't know. But I think, that they need at least 3-4 players in this team. On the other hand, Gundogan was brought to City as key midfielder, but as soon as he started playing really good, he picked up an injury and he finished the  season. We all know what happened with Gabriel as well.. 

Otherwise.. full backs are crucial for his style of football. I am not surprised that he is forcing his way of football. I said on start of the season, that he won't change his way even if they won't reach anything. We'll never see him playing with 8 players on his half.

p.s. I am adding some pictures from Manchester derby, which finished in the way how it shouldn't have for City.. as many of other matches.. Guardiola said, that in final third of the pitch, everything relies on players quality.. Sane is amazing in second part of this season, but what about others? 

Edited May 4, 2017 by Pep004

[Mindfulness]

Thanks @Pep004

I guess connectivity is not the problem after all with Man City highest for possession and pass completion in EPL so far this campaign:

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/6335/Stages/13796/TeamStatistics/England-Premier-League-2016-2017

Ultimately Man City are just bad in both boxes, I would say Pep constantly fielding different defensive lineups has not helped. Injury to Gabriel Jesus as you've mentioned and the fact that Aguero has been trying to adapt to Guardiola's style of play, having to cover more ground in final 3rd etc.

[Pep004]

We'll see how it will be in the next season. In my opinion, full backs are the biggest problems. Poor in attack and in defence, many times affraid to play, and that's why he is forcing Navas now (even if it looks funny)..  while on the other hand his experiment with goalkeeper went wrong as well. Even though, in my opinion Hart cannot be the goalkeeper in this style, but fact is that Bravo was simply not enough mentally strong.. He isn't a bad goalkeeper, he is undoubtedly a top goalkeeper, when it comes to buildup in top5 for sure, but pressure was simply too big and he failed. 

[Mindfulness]

8 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

We'll see how it will be in the next season. In my opinion, full backs are the biggest problems.

Are you saying overall quality of current full-backs is poor or Pep needs full backs with specific characterisitics?

[malabgd]

West Ham v Tottenham

West Ham: Arthur Masuaku (13/0 d), Andy Carroll (18/7 f)(both doubtful), Diafra Sakho (4/1 f), Michail Antonio (29/9 m, top scorer), Pedro Obiang (22/1 m), Angelo Ogbonna (19/0 d), Gokhan Töre (5/0 m)

Tottenham: Harry Winks (21/1 m), Danny Rose (18/2 d), Erik Lamela (9/1 m), Cameron Carter-Vickers (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Pep004]

10 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Are you saying overall quality of current full-backs is poor or Pep needs full backs with specific characterisitics?

Both actually.  and we all know that. 

Edited May 5, 2017 by Pep004

[betcatalog]

Tottenham is a formidable player, he can take advantage of West Ham's weaknesses and win
WEST HAM UNITED vs TOTTENHAM @@ TOTTENHAM, odds 1.40

[Mindfulness]

Did not realise Man City's full-backs had created so little this season. A grand total of 2 assists between Kolarov, Clichy, Sagna and Zabaleta:

https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/167/Show/England-Manchester-City

Interesting article in the Guardian about possible replacements:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2017/apr/25/manchester-city-players-sign-full-backs-pep-guardiola

 

 

[Pep004]

We were used to see defensive midfielders as very important role in last 10 years.. for example during Spain and Barcelona "golden times" role of Busquets was crucial, but as always, football changed now as well, and even if "Busquets" role of defensive midfielder still works just fine in some tactics, if we are taking a look to top teams in the world - I would point out Real Madrid -> Marcelo and Carvajal. They are simply amazing. Creative, with pace, great ball control, strong in attack and defence, with precise crosses, both able to move into the midfield, especially Marcelo. With full backs overlaps you are much more dangerous, because there is only few teams where wingers are working hard in defence (Chelsea). Another team, where full backs are crucial is of course Monaco which is really unlucky. After the match against Manchester City, they haven't played any matches with both Mendy on the left and Sidibe on the right. In my opinion, Jardim fcuk*d up the match against Juventus, with Dirar (winger otherwise) on right full back position, while Toure (first backup of RB and LB) was on the bench. He could leave Sidibe on the rigth, and put Toure or even Raggi on the left as he did against BVB. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that full backs are becoming crucial part of "new" tactics. Even Juve with Sandro and Alves is great, but in my opinion no one can compare with Real Madrid.

That it won't be off topic, Tottenham is great example in PL. Rose and Walker are amazing as well, but much more physical than Marcelo&Carvajal for example. I would like to see Mendy and Sidibe/Toure under Guardiola, I think that with two strong modern full backs, they would be much stronger. Also in Conte's Chelsea, wing backs are crucial for hit tactics, but he is using different approaches.

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

Tottenham have won their last 9 games in Premier League.
West Ham United have drawn their last 3 games in Premier League.

Interesting Football Betting Streaks for 05.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-05-05-2017

[allyhibs]

Tottenham have been playing some fantastic football and are on a different level to West Ham. The odds aren't great for the straight win but I think they'll win this with a bit to spare and keep the pressure on Chelsea. Tottenham -1 at 1.91 is where my cash is going.

I have a feeling the gap at the top will narrow this weekend!!!!

[malabgd]

Swansea City v Everton FC

Swansea City: Jefferson Montero (13/0 m), Wayne Routledge (27/3 m), Nathan Dyer (8/0 m), Angel Rangel (18/1 d)

Everton FC: Morgan Schneiderlin (12/1 m), Muhamed Bešić (0/0 d), Aaron Lennon (11/0 m), Seamus Coleman (26/4 d), Ramiro Funes Mori (23/0 d), James McCarthy (12/1 m), Yannick Bolasie (13/1 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Sir Puntalot]

Hull 4/9 to beat Sunderland? Has the world gone mad?  

Price always dictates whether you should back a team or not, otherwise you just can't win long term. I wouldn't back Hull to beat Hartlepool at 4/9, mental. They have been very good at home and will probably win, but don't be surprised if Sunderland pull off a shock here as there's no pressure whatsoever on them.

[Sir Puntalot]

Same with Leicester to beat Watford - 4/7, really? Watford have been awful away, but again I just think it's another one of those matches where it's that stage of the season, both teams playing for nothing and nothing would surprise me.  

[Mindfulness]

31 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Same with Leicester to beat Watford - 4/7, really? Watford have been awful away, but again I just think it's another one of those matches where it's that stage of the season, both teams playing for nothing and nothing would surprise me.  

Yes we're well into silly season but don't forget the ELO - a 2.5 goal advantage to Leicester

Can't really blame the markets for pricing it the way they have from ratings perspective.

It's a game I don't want to get involved with but I agree that backing Leicester @ 4/7 is no value despite ELO.

[Sir Puntalot]

1 minute ago, Mindfulness said:

Yes we're well into silly season but don't forget the ELO - a 2.5 goal advantage to Leicester

Can't really blame the markets for pricing it the way they have from ratings perspective.

It's a game I don't want to get involved with but I agree that backing Leicester @ 4/7 is no value despite ELO.

Time to hit Summer Leagues and South America.  

[Sir Puntalot]

On 2017-5-4 at 0:32 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

7/1 on West Ham is absolutely ridiculous - these teams hate each other and West Ham have a history of turning them over. My head says Spurs will win, but my head also tells me they are massively underpriced!

 

[zemo91]

Bournemouth-Stoke city

Bournemouth @  2.22

bts no @2.28

Swansea-Everton

over 2.5 @ 1.89

[mrclubbie]

Can Arsenal win ? Seems that they still have chance to get into top 4

They only played 33 matches, still have 5 matches to go (maximum 15 points)

Looking back at the past 6 seasons, at current stage Arsenal is at either 3rd or 4th position. Today they are at 6th.

What is worrying is at the final third of the season (last 12 matches) for the past 6 seasons, Arsenal was able to maintain consistency in form, but this 2016-17 season has been the opposite as Arsenal did better in the first 12 matches. They have already lost 4 matches since matchweek 26 - They never lose more than 3 out of the final 12 matches for the past 6 seasons.

Under Arsene Wenger, they have never ever lost more than 3 out of the final 12 matches except on the season when he took over (1996-97)

Probably the closest comparison is from 2013-14 season where the team was shaky from matchweek 26 to 33 (DWLWLDDL) before recording 5 wins out of 5. But having said that, they were already in top 4 positions by then.

Edited May 6, 2017 by mrclubbie