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StevieDay1983

Week > May 10th - 14th

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There are only a couple of weeks of Premier League action left. Sunderland went on the weekend and Middlesbrough followed them last night. So we now just have one more relegation slot left. The big game this week is Crystal Palace versus Hull. That could have a huge say in the relegation battle. If Hull lose and Swansea beat Sunderland away then Hull are down. However, if Hull win that game then it blows everything wide open.

At the other end of the table, a win for Chelsea away to West Brom will see them crowned as Premier League champions. They clearly are deserved winners if they do it but it'll be a shame for Tottenham to narrowly miss out again. If Chelsea win their remaining games then they will fall just 2 points shy of the Premier League points total record. It just shows how impressive they have been.

The top four is looking a lot clearer. Tottenham have their place wrapped up but it's not yet certain for Liverpool and Manchester City. They could still get caught by Manchester United and Arsenal. A win for Tottenham this weekend will all but end United's top four aspirations. However, they still have an investment in the Europa League that could see them qualify for the Champions League next season by that route.

One point to note is Leicester's incredible finish. They were being tipped for relegation just a few months ago. If they win 2 of their remaining 3 league games (which is likely given their current form) then they could well finish top 8 this season. Combine that with a Champions League quarter final finish and it's not been a bad season at all for the Foxes in the end.

So what are we thinking guys?

@sajtion, @discipline, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice.

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I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

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52 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Lots of value this week.

I'm confident in Swansea. I think Hull might come unstuck. You can get Everton -1 at 3.2 which seems great value.

Mate don't get caught up in all the hype. The markets are such clowns when it comes to Palace games, they always make us such big favourites in home games against bottom half teams but that is where we have been most vulnerable for 2 years now. I keep saying it on these boards. It's such a high pressure game and Palace will need to recover some of their leaders on the pitch if they are to be confident of a positive result. We need Cabaye back and to recover at least one of our injured centre backs from Sakho, Dann or Tomkins. Even if we do, odds on for a Palace victory is a total joke although I will add that game is difficult to price due to the unusual circumstances which surround it. Palace -0.25 line in the region of EVS could be considered a break even valuation in this situation, markets are nowhere near that at this present time.

As for The Swans, they should be full of confidence after the Everton victory but it's still all on the line, if anything I think their price is even worse than Palace's. Relegation has been a mind trick for Sunderland and now they play with the wind in their sales and zero pressure on them. ELO and away form is not favourable to Swansea - 1.85 for away win is a joke as game could easily end in a draw.

I want Palace and Swansea victories this weekend but I sure won't be betting on them.

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I have thought about it again and landed on two draws - Hull game and Middlesbrough v Southampton.

Everton and Bournemouth home wins.

Swansea away.

Stoke v Arsenal and West Ham v Liverpool - one of those will end in an upset.

how about the odds on Leicester? They blew Man City off and patk in their last two meetings. Should be at least two goals by half time in this match.

Pep thinks he has the best forward line in the Premiership. If they played like they did against Palace in every match that would be true. But it's somewhat ludicrous given the number of clean sheets they've had against them this year.  With that kind of over-confidence still rampant I imagine Leicester and Vardy must be chomping at the bit.

Edited by andrewcalo

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I like Everton -1. In 2017, they have won all their home games by at least 2 goals. The only time they didn't was against Chelsea a few weeks ago.

If Celta can push Man Utd to extra time or all the way till the 90th min in midweek, then Spurs should be a good play.

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There was a lot of value in week 37 last year - I won 30k off £11 - 

 

Here's the eight fold with odds from last year - 

 

Man U WIN away to Norwich 1-0  1.85  

Sunderland WIN home to Chelsea 3-2  3.0

Palace WIN home to Stoke 2-1  2.0  

Bournemouth DRAW home to West Brom 1-1  3.5

Leicester WIN home to Everton 3-1  2.0 

Southampton WIN away to Tottenham 1-2  4.0

Man Ciy DRAW home to Arsenal 2-2  3.5  

West Ham WIN home to Man U 3-2  3.0

 

Came in 3090 to 1 - I was laughing lol 

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13 hours ago, betcatalog said:

You can not mention many things about this showdown, you have to bet on the motivation and the necessity of points
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs ARSENAL @@ ARSENAL, odds 2.05

I agree. Do-or-die game for Arsenal in their run for a CL spot. Apart from Koscielny, who is questionable, every significant player is available for Arsenal. Plus Arsenal beat them 5-0 in Southampton in the FA Cup Last 16 round in their last encounter.

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The Swansea Sunderland game could be over by half time. We have to win to keep pressure on both Palace and Hull - and I think we will. Sunderland are the type of team we know we are better than - their keeper saved them from a draw last weekend and I have a funny feeling we are confident enough to come out of the gate sprinting and score two before half time.

Sunderland are already relegated for a reason - there's not enough quality in their team. 

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I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

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Premier League:


Everton have failed to score in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Watford have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Chelsea have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 games in Premier League.

Interesting 41 Football Betting Facts for 12.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12-05-2017

 

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11 hours ago, betcatalog said:

I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

Going for a low return this week then, @betcatalog:lol

On 09/05/2017 at 0:40 PM, KikoCy said:

I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

:lol That line has got me in stitches. So true though! It must be frustrating for the fans. Knowing their players could have gotten the wins but didn't have the mental strength to do it when the pressure was on. I dare not go near the relegation fight this week. I couldn't call it. I do think Swansea have the mental advantage. Have Hull peaked too early and too little?

Also, word of warning about last games at home grounds. You often see the occasion built up massively and a lot of teams struggle to deal with it. Cardiff's last game at Ninian Park ended in an absolute trouncing that eventually led to us missing out on promotion. It was the most depressing way to end our tenure at the old ground. In the shadow of their failed title bid, I find the 1.70 price placed on Tottenham to win way too low to tempt me. Not saying that Manchester United will win but I'm certainly favouring a draw more than anything.

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18 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

@Sir Puntalot just looking at elo ratings and in particular massive difference between Man City and Leicester - what goes into this calculation?

Recent performances. ;) Check out the performance tab to see previous results and the ratings they got after the match. :ok 

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Interesting to see whether West Brom can stop Chelsea tonight and keep the title race dragging on to the last matchweek

Chelsea's away EPL stats - 12W 3D 3L, 29 scored 16 conceded

WBA's home EPL stats - 9W 2D 7L, 27 scored 21 conceded

Since WBA's return to EPL in 2010/11 season, both sides have met 13 times and Chelsea won 7 times, but only 2 of the wins were at Hawthorns

Pulis's recent records against Chelsea

With WBA -  P4, 1W 1D 2L (both losses by 1 goal margin)

With Crystal Palace - P2, 1W 1L (lose by 1 goal margin)

With Stoke City - P11, 0W 2D 9L

 

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Stoke City v Arsenal

Stoke City: Ibrahim Afellay (12/0 m), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m)

Arsenal: Laurent Koscielny (31/2 d), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (29/2 m)(both doubtful), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

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Expect both teams, Crystal Palace and Hull, to go all out today in a relegation match both teams must win today (both teams will meet Man Utd and Spurs respectively in their last match)

Palace home stats - 5W 2D 11L, 20 scored 25 conceded

Hull away stats - 1W 3D 14L, 9 scored 41 conceded

Looks like easy win for Palace given Hull's weak away form ? Can't be sure, but I shall go with over 2.5 in anticipation of both sides all out attack to win this critical match.

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10 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

Under 2.5 goals certainly seems a decent price here. Neither side is exactly prolific in front of goal so I think under 2.5 goals is a decent shout for the Sunderland versus Swansea game. I agree with the Arsenal shout as well. Stoke isn't their favourite place to visit but it's far less intimidating than it was a few years ago. I think Arsenal are going to make a late push for the top four as always. I think they've left it a bit too late this year but they will miss out firing.

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    • No upsets on the main stage today, but I'm surprised how poor Federer is this week. Saving energy?
    • 1745 royal ascot. or is it ascot heath?  1pt win count octave
    • Ascot 5.20 Dreamfield @ 5/2 Bet365
    • England vs Panama The result in the Belgium versus Tunisia game means that if England win against Panama in this 1pm BST kick-off this Sunday at the Nizhny Novgorod Stadium in Nizhny Novgorod then it will put themselves and Belgium into the last 16. It will also eliminate both Tunisia and Panama. England were far from at their best in their opening 2-1 win against Tunisia but a few positives came from the game. Harry Kane showed that he can score goals on the big stage. The England players showed they could rise above an injustice such as the penalty that never was when Kane was powerslammed to the ground in the box. It also showed the fight within this England side that they kept going until the bitter end. Panama were defensively resolute for the first 45 minutes of their World Cup campaign in their opener with Belgium. Sadly, the second 45 minutes will likely be a half they will want to forget. The 3-0 score-line actually flattering them in the end with the amount of chances Belgium had. It does not bode well for this game where England showed in the first 20 minutes against Tunisia just how dangerous they are going forward. There are rumours circulating within the English media that Marcus Rashford will start up top with Kane. That would be a bold move but I think it's necessary. Panama will have only defence on their minds. They are just happy to be at this tournament. Qualification to the 2nd Round is not even within their trail of thought so 11 players behind the ball in the final third will be a dangerous but likely strategy for the CONCACAF side. I'm going to have to back a dominant England win here. England haven't really put teams to the sword properly under Gareth Southgate. During qualification for this tournament, their biggest wins were 3-0 against Scotland and 4-0 against Malta. Even in that Malta game three of the goals came in the final 5 minutes. The result here will depend on how England approach the game. If they go full throttle then it could be 4-0 or 5-0. However, it's likely Southgate will be reluctant to see his players use more energy than necessary in a game they probably see as a given. Panama are no Iceland. Panama are far worse. I think England will look to get an early goal or two then sit back and play keep ball. Save the energy levels for the Belgium game and beyond. I wouldn't be surprised if England only win this 1-0 or 2-0. I certainly can't see them conceding though. England to win to nil @ 1.67 with BetStars Marcus Rashford Anytime Scorer @ 2.33 with UniBet
    • 15.40 Ascot North Wind 80/1 Bet365 each-way ty
    • South Korea vs Mexico The Mexicans have a lightweight team like the Koreans, but I think the Osório team's position is more aggressive, very different from what it was against the German national team. Koreans need the positive result, an hour will have to give way. Even if it is closed for a certain time, Mexico has the resources to wrap up this defense of South Korea that is not the best. I believe in at least two goals for the Mexican team in the match. Mexico Over 1.5 @1.98  (NetBet) - unit: 1  
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