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StevieDay1983

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There are only a couple of weeks of Premier League action left. Sunderland went on the weekend and Middlesbrough followed them last night. So we now just have one more relegation slot left. The big game this week is Crystal Palace versus Hull. That could have a huge say in the relegation battle. If Hull lose and Swansea beat Sunderland away then Hull are down. However, if Hull win that game then it blows everything wide open.

At the other end of the table, a win for Chelsea away to West Brom will see them crowned as Premier League champions. They clearly are deserved winners if they do it but it'll be a shame for Tottenham to narrowly miss out again. If Chelsea win their remaining games then they will fall just 2 points shy of the Premier League points total record. It just shows how impressive they have been.

The top four is looking a lot clearer. Tottenham have their place wrapped up but it's not yet certain for Liverpool and Manchester City. They could still get caught by Manchester United and Arsenal. A win for Tottenham this weekend will all but end United's top four aspirations. However, they still have an investment in the Europa League that could see them qualify for the Champions League next season by that route.

One point to note is Leicester's incredible finish. They were being tipped for relegation just a few months ago. If they win 2 of their remaining 3 league games (which is likely given their current form) then they could well finish top 8 this season. Combine that with a Champions League quarter final finish and it's not been a bad season at all for the Foxes in the end.

So what are we thinking guys?

@sajtion, @discipline, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice.

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I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

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52 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Lots of value this week.

I'm confident in Swansea. I think Hull might come unstuck. You can get Everton -1 at 3.2 which seems great value.

Mate don't get caught up in all the hype. The markets are such clowns when it comes to Palace games, they always make us such big favourites in home games against bottom half teams but that is where we have been most vulnerable for 2 years now. I keep saying it on these boards. It's such a high pressure game and Palace will need to recover some of their leaders on the pitch if they are to be confident of a positive result. We need Cabaye back and to recover at least one of our injured centre backs from Sakho, Dann or Tomkins. Even if we do, odds on for a Palace victory is a total joke although I will add that game is difficult to price due to the unusual circumstances which surround it. Palace -0.25 line in the region of EVS could be considered a break even valuation in this situation, markets are nowhere near that at this present time.

As for The Swans, they should be full of confidence after the Everton victory but it's still all on the line, if anything I think their price is even worse than Palace's. Relegation has been a mind trick for Sunderland and now they play with the wind in their sales and zero pressure on them. ELO and away form is not favourable to Swansea - 1.85 for away win is a joke as game could easily end in a draw.

I want Palace and Swansea victories this weekend but I sure won't be betting on them.

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I have thought about it again and landed on two draws - Hull game and Middlesbrough v Southampton.

Everton and Bournemouth home wins.

Swansea away.

Stoke v Arsenal and West Ham v Liverpool - one of those will end in an upset.

how about the odds on Leicester? They blew Man City off and patk in their last two meetings. Should be at least two goals by half time in this match.

Pep thinks he has the best forward line in the Premiership. If they played like they did against Palace in every match that would be true. But it's somewhat ludicrous given the number of clean sheets they've had against them this year.  With that kind of over-confidence still rampant I imagine Leicester and Vardy must be chomping at the bit.

Edited by andrewcalo

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I like Everton -1. In 2017, they have won all their home games by at least 2 goals. The only time they didn't was against Chelsea a few weeks ago.

If Celta can push Man Utd to extra time or all the way till the 90th min in midweek, then Spurs should be a good play.

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There was a lot of value in week 37 last year - I won 30k off £11 - 

 

Here's the eight fold with odds from last year - 

 

Man U WIN away to Norwich 1-0  1.85  

Sunderland WIN home to Chelsea 3-2  3.0

Palace WIN home to Stoke 2-1  2.0  

Bournemouth DRAW home to West Brom 1-1  3.5

Leicester WIN home to Everton 3-1  2.0 

Southampton WIN away to Tottenham 1-2  4.0

Man Ciy DRAW home to Arsenal 2-2  3.5  

West Ham WIN home to Man U 3-2  3.0

 

Came in 3090 to 1 - I was laughing lol 

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13 hours ago, betcatalog said:

You can not mention many things about this showdown, you have to bet on the motivation and the necessity of points
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs ARSENAL @@ ARSENAL, odds 2.05

I agree. Do-or-die game for Arsenal in their run for a CL spot. Apart from Koscielny, who is questionable, every significant player is available for Arsenal. Plus Arsenal beat them 5-0 in Southampton in the FA Cup Last 16 round in their last encounter.

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The Swansea Sunderland game could be over by half time. We have to win to keep pressure on both Palace and Hull - and I think we will. Sunderland are the type of team we know we are better than - their keeper saved them from a draw last weekend and I have a funny feeling we are confident enough to come out of the gate sprinting and score two before half time.

Sunderland are already relegated for a reason - there's not enough quality in their team. 

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I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

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Premier League:


Everton have failed to score in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Watford have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Chelsea have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 games in Premier League.

Interesting 41 Football Betting Facts for 12.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12-05-2017

 

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11 hours ago, betcatalog said:

I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

Going for a low return this week then, @betcatalog:lol

On 09/05/2017 at 0:40 PM, KikoCy said:

I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

:lol That line has got me in stitches. So true though! It must be frustrating for the fans. Knowing their players could have gotten the wins but didn't have the mental strength to do it when the pressure was on. I dare not go near the relegation fight this week. I couldn't call it. I do think Swansea have the mental advantage. Have Hull peaked too early and too little?

Also, word of warning about last games at home grounds. You often see the occasion built up massively and a lot of teams struggle to deal with it. Cardiff's last game at Ninian Park ended in an absolute trouncing that eventually led to us missing out on promotion. It was the most depressing way to end our tenure at the old ground. In the shadow of their failed title bid, I find the 1.70 price placed on Tottenham to win way too low to tempt me. Not saying that Manchester United will win but I'm certainly favouring a draw more than anything.

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18 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

@Sir Puntalot just looking at elo ratings and in particular massive difference between Man City and Leicester - what goes into this calculation?

Recent performances. ;) Check out the performance tab to see previous results and the ratings they got after the match. :ok 

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Interesting to see whether West Brom can stop Chelsea tonight and keep the title race dragging on to the last matchweek

Chelsea's away EPL stats - 12W 3D 3L, 29 scored 16 conceded

WBA's home EPL stats - 9W 2D 7L, 27 scored 21 conceded

Since WBA's return to EPL in 2010/11 season, both sides have met 13 times and Chelsea won 7 times, but only 2 of the wins were at Hawthorns

Pulis's recent records against Chelsea

With WBA -  P4, 1W 1D 2L (both losses by 1 goal margin)

With Crystal Palace - P2, 1W 1L (lose by 1 goal margin)

With Stoke City - P11, 0W 2D 9L

 

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Stoke City v Arsenal

Stoke City: Ibrahim Afellay (12/0 m), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m)

Arsenal: Laurent Koscielny (31/2 d), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (29/2 m)(both doubtful), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

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Expect both teams, Crystal Palace and Hull, to go all out today in a relegation match both teams must win today (both teams will meet Man Utd and Spurs respectively in their last match)

Palace home stats - 5W 2D 11L, 20 scored 25 conceded

Hull away stats - 1W 3D 14L, 9 scored 41 conceded

Looks like easy win for Palace given Hull's weak away form ? Can't be sure, but I shall go with over 2.5 in anticipation of both sides all out attack to win this critical match.

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10 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

Under 2.5 goals certainly seems a decent price here. Neither side is exactly prolific in front of goal so I think under 2.5 goals is a decent shout for the Sunderland versus Swansea game. I agree with the Arsenal shout as well. Stoke isn't their favourite place to visit but it's far less intimidating than it was a few years ago. I think Arsenal are going to make a late push for the top four as always. I think they've left it a bit too late this year but they will miss out firing.

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    • Bet £10 Get £10 if first bet loses at Black Type! £10
      New customers only. £5 Free Bet & £5 Casino Bonus if your first bet loses. Min bet £10 single at evens (2.00) or higher. T&C's apply.
    • Pinnacle - Excellent Odds! £0
      No welcome offer and currently UK residents cannot bet there due to licensing, but many countries can.
    • £1000 Cashback + 2% Commission at Betdaq! £1000
      Must opt in and use promo code DAQBACK. £1000 cashback offer expires after 30 days.
    • £25 Free Bet Offer at McBookie! £25
      Scottish residents only. First bet must be within 30 days of registering. Min odds of 2.00 (EVENS). Payment restrictions apply. Free bet stake not returned and expires after 7 days.
    • £15 Free Bet at SportingBet! £15
      New customers only. Min deposit £10 at odds of EVENS (2.00). If first bet loses, you'll be refunded up to a £15 free bet. Skrill & Neteller deposits don't qualify. Free bet cannot be withdrawn and expires after 7 days.
    • Join Star Sports New Bookmaker! £0
      Currently no free bet offer, but well worth joining!
    • Boosted Odds at BetBoro! £0
      No sign up offer currently, but boosted odds for all customers.
    • £10 Free Bet at 138.com £10
      New customers only. Deposit and make a first bet of at least £20 at minimum odds of 4/5. Applies to pre-match or in-play single bets only. Should your qualifying bet lose, you will be refunded with a £10 Bonus Token.
    • £30 Free Bet at Dafabet! £30
      New customers only. Min bet of £5/€5 at min odds of 1/2 (1.50). Skrill is excluded for this promotion. Dafabet will match the first bet of qualified player up to a maximum of £/€30 if it does not win, as a free bet.
    • Grosvenor Sports - Double Odds First Bet! £0
      New customers only. Offer applies to Grosvenor Sports bets only. Max stake £20. Bets made with Odds Boost Token. Neteller & Skrill deposits excluded.
    • No Free Bet at Super Lenny £0
      Super Lenny is not offering a free bet currently, but is UK licensed and worth a look.
    • £28 Bonus at Fun88! £28
      Stake 6 qualifying bets of at least £10. Min odds 2.00, Multis 1.40. Min stake to qualify £10. Contact customer support to request your Bonus token and credited within 24 hours. T&C's apply.
    • Up to £1000 Acca Bonus at BetEast! £1000
      ALL customers up to a £1000 acca bonus. 4fold accas minimum. Email to claim within 7 days of settlement. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at OLE777! £30
      New customers only. Min stake £10 at EVENS (2.00). Place 10 qualifying bets of £30 and receive £30 bonus. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at TLCBet! £30
      ALL customers! Place 6 qualifying bets of £30. Min odds 2.00 and min stake £10. Bonus will be lowest stake of qualifying bets. T&C's apply.
    • Vernons Sports £0
      No sign up offer currently.
    • LeTou Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at present.
    • Marathonbet - Great Odds! £0
      No welcome offer currently.
    • Setantabet - Irish Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at the moment.
    • BetVision £0
      No welcome offer.
    • £20 Free Bet at Betfair Exchange! £20
      New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply.

    Casino

    • £300 Bonus + 20 Free Spins at Casumo! £300
      18+. New UK customers only. 100% deposit bonus up to £300. Opt-in required. Minimum deposit £10. 20 Free spins on Starburst game upon registration. 30x wagering requirements apply for bonuses and bonus winnings before withdrawal (game weighting applies). Max bet applies. Terms and conditions apply. Please gamble responsibly,
    • £5 No Deposit Bonus at Energy Casino! £5
      18+ New players only. You must click through Punters Lounge link. Register, then email to get bonus. x50 wagering within 3 days and min £30 withdrawal. Geo restrictions apply. T&C's apply. BeGambleAware.org
    • £250 Bonus & 50 Free Spins! £250
      New players only. 100% deposit bonus up to £250 + 50 Free Spins if depositing min £10. Use Exclusive Code: PUNTER50. NO WAGERING needed on free spins!
    • 10 Free Spins + £200 Bonus! £200
      18+. New customers only, *10 Free Spins on mobile verification (UK Only), 3 day expiry on Free Spins. **100% deposit match up to £200. Available on selected games only. 7-day expiry on Bonus. 40x wagering (max bet £5) before Bonus Balance can be withdrawn. Wagering is with real money first. Game contribution weightings apply to wagering requirements. £10 min deposit + 2.5% fee (min 50p). Not available using Neteller or Skrill. Cash balance withdrawable anytime + £2.50 fee.
    • 25 Free Spins! £0
      New UK&IRL Customers only. Free Spins can only be played on eligible games. No wagering requirements on winnings. SMS verification required. Opt in required, full T&Cs apply
    • 30 Free Spins! £0
      New Customers only. One bonus per customer. 30 free spins added to accounts verified by SMS (x1 wagering). Free spins expire within 10 Days & on selected games only.
    • £100 Bonus - William Hill Live Casino! £100
      Opt-in required. Only first deposit qualifies. 100% deposit bonus up to £100, with 70x wagering on Roulette tables only. Min. deposit £10. Max. bonus £100. Bonus expires 7 days from issue. Player, country, currency, game restrictions and terms apply.
    • Up to £200 Bonus! £200
      New players only. Min deposit £20. Wager 40x before withdrawing. Game weighting applies. Max bonus betting limit – slots: £5, other games: 10% of bonus amount. T&Cs apply.
    • Up to £100 Casino Bonus! £100
      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
    • £50 Bonus + 20 Free Spins £50
      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
    • £400 Slots bonus + 100 Free Spins £400
      New UK&IRE Players only. Min buy-in £20. Bonus wagering 35x on eligible games. Spins available day after bonus is lost/redeemed, 10 per day for 10 days, no wagering.

    • £10 Risk Free on Liverpool v Man Utd! £10
      New customers only. £10 min bet on 1x2 markets. Refunds given 17th December 12:00. T&C's apply.
    • 2-0 Up - YOU WIN! £0
      Get your bet paid out as a winner if the team you back goes 2 goals ahead. Applies to pre-match single bets on Full Time Result market for applicable competitions. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.
    • Money Back if 1 lets you down! £10
      Applies to UK & Top Euro leagues. Applies to match odds ACCA & Same Game Multi bets only. Max free bet €/£10 per day. T&Cs apply
    • 2-0 up - You Win! £0
      Applies to all Premier League, La Liga and Champions League games until 31st December 2018. T&Cs apply.
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