Mindfulness

There's no added value for Palace here. Markets are giving the home side a 60.6% chance of winning and that looks in the right region to me, perhaps a little generous if anything.
ELO ratings favour Palace but I keep telling people that certain teams attacking performances do not translate into goals due to poor chance conversion. Palace's poor chance conversion to revert to the mean? THEY DON'T HAVE ANY STRIKERS!!! They've scored 2 home goals all season for a reason.
Key goal metrics give Burnley half a goal advantage for this game.
Looking at the spirit level of both teams I feel Palace are in the better moment but does that justify the price on Palace? I am skeptical.
It's a match which is highly unpredictable and awkward to analyse. If you put a gun to my head I would back Burnley +1.0 AH but really it should be a no bet scenario for most people.
If you back Palace I will cheer you on but I cannot get involved with the home side myself @ 1.65.

Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.04 Marathonbet
Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.
Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.
Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.
 
Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.32 Marathonbet
A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.
Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.
Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.
It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.
 

I was chatting with my mum about this the other day. She's a season ticket holder down Cardiff. Our set-pieces last season were such a weapon but this season not so much. Morrison has had a few golden chances to score headers. I think in the first game of the season he missed 2-3 point blank headers and it appears to have hit him psychologically. He has been taking on a more withdrawn role at corners by being a flick on and heading back across goal option. Bamba is always worth backing. He's just as likely to win a game as he is to lose a game for us. Manga hasn't ever really been one to back for a set-piece. His game is based more around his anticipation and interception rather than brute physicality. He's been playing full back all season so doesn't tend to be used as physically in attacking plays as he is when he's a centre back. It's only a matter of time before Morrison scores and when he gets one I think it could open the flood gates to 2-3 more. The issue remains delivery though. Camarasa seems like the best set piece taker. It was previously Ralls but he was awful.

November was a decent month profit wise and December (as long as the weather plays ball) is obviously a very busy month so fingers crossed the decent form can continue. I have 3 FA Cup bets for Sunday and they are all on that thread. I have 5 bets in the 3 National League's for Saturday.
AFC Fylde v Sutton
It was good to finally be on the right side of a bet on Fylde away from home as they had a pretty comfortable time of things in beating now mangerless Hartlepool on Tuesday night. At home they have won 8, drawn 1 and lost just twice and they were to Salford and Leyton Orient. The draw was against Harrogate so we are talking about them only dropping points to the top teams in the division and although Sutton have only lost 4 times they haven't been reaching the levels they did last season. Their last 3 league performances haven't been great although they did come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Braintree on Tuesday night, but then Braintree are bottom. They lost to Slough on penalties in the FA Cup and Fylde look a cut above to me especially given how strong they are at home. I think they should be odds on so am happy to get involved at 11/10.
Hartlepool v Dagenham & Redbridge
I'm not sure Hartlepool have got either managerial appointments right since they dropped out of the Football League. Fair play to Matthew Bates for keeping them in the division last season especially in very tricky circumstances, but after a solid start things have gone downhill fast and they have lost 6 league games on the bounce. Not surprisingly he got the sack on Wednesday and the club need to get the next appointment right so they can at least give themselves a solid base for next season. In the very short term I am not sure things are going to get any better on Saturday and Dagenham look a hell of a bet at 7/2 to pick up another 3 points. Since the takeover Peter Taylor has been able to spend money and the team has been improving. They have won 5 out of their last 6 games and the only loss was a 1-0 defeat to Sutton. They have only conceded 4 times in their last 6 games and they have been a lot more solid at the back as well as being clinical at the other end of the pitch. These two sides should be much closer to each other in the betting.
Nuneaton v Blyth Spartans
Like Hartlepool Nuneaton are also without a manager at the moment and I think things are going to take some time before the new owner has any effect on the playing side of things. The three draws they got in their last 8 league games were decent efforts, but they lost their other 5 games and 4 of those were by at least 2 goals. Blyth didn't have a great start to the season, but they have shown a big improvement in recent weeks, bar a couple of bad defeats. In their last 8 league games they were their only two losses and they won 5 of those games including against an in form Stockport on Tuesday night. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 away games, but have picked up 7 in their other 3 which is more proof of their improvement. They should be favourites to win this so the 2/1 is a cracking bet in my view.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
Spennymoor did us a good turn last week and after a tricky start they really put Halesowen to the sword to beat them 8-2. Now this game will obviously be harder, but Kidderminster's form has really gone downhill in recent weeks. They have only won one of their last 6 league games and York beat them 3-1 in the FA Trophy last week. To be fair their away form has been better than their home form and they have only lost once on their travels, but they drew against Nuneaton in their last away game and I think Spennymoor are looking much the better side at the moment, thus they look a fair bet.
Truro v St Albans
The other team in the double last week were Truro and I am also sticking with them this week back in league action. As I mentioned last week they have been an improved side of late and they are unbeaten in their last 5 league games. They look a decent bet here as I think they should be favourites. St Albans games have been very exciting as their league games have seen 64 goals already, yet strangely their last league game saw them draw 0-0 against Gloucester. That was their first point in 4 games though and it was a poor game. Since then they have been beaten in a replay by Weymouth in the FA Trophy and they look out of sorts at the moment. With a long trip to Torquay ahead of them I think this could be another game they end up with nothing.
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1.5pts @ 7/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Marathon
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 2/1 with 888sport
Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Truro 2.5pts @ 19/10 with Bet365

Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.04 Marathonbet
Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.
Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.
Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.
 
Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.32 Marathonbet
A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.
Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.
Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.
It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.
 

Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.04 Marathonbet
Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.
Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.
Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.
 
Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.32 Marathonbet
A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.
Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.
Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.
It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.
 

Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.04 Marathonbet
Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.
Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.
Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.
 
Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.32 Marathonbet
A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.
Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.
Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.
It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.
 

Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion
X @ 3.04 Marathonbet
Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.
Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.
Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.
 
Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.32 Marathonbet
A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.
Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.
Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.
It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.
 

Another profitable day on Saturday and we move on to the final set of fixtures for November where we basically have a full fixture list in the National League which is where my focus is.
Chesterfield v Bromley
Draw!
Well it might not be as simple as that. Bromley are looking pretty poor at the moment and this does look a very winnable game for Chesterfield who despite their long unbeaten run did slip into the relegation zone on Saturday. They are clearly a better side than that and this is a much easier game than Saturday's. However I did think the Havant game was one they could have won and indeed they should have done, but again their lack of scoring goals was the issue in a 0-0 draw. I am going to back the draw again though because the stats suggest it is the value play yet again. How on earth other tipsters still haven't bothered putting it up I don't know. In this match though I am also going to cover the home win because it is a shade of odds against so would give us a tiny profit if it happened and I struggle to see Bromley winning the match.
Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
I have had my fingers burnt a few times when putting up Fylde away from home as they have only one twice and drawn 7 times. I am going to back them again though as I think Hartlepool look vulnerable at the moment. They have lost 5 league games on the bounce including to struggling Dover on Saturday. What probably didn't help was the fact Gillingham took them to extra time in the FA Cup on Wednesday night and I can imagine that game had left a mark. What they need is a week off, but they aren't going to get that and you would hope that Fylde attack them early on as Dover did on Saturday. Fylde scored two goals in the 88th minute to overturn a 1 goal deficit against Boreham Wood on Saturday and they were a bit off their game, but it is always uplifting to win a game in that style and if they could turn this away draws into wins then they might be capable of getting in the title picture. 
Leyton Orient v Aldershot
Tuesday nights do tend to throw up some strange results and if Aldershot even get a point in this game it would be one of the stranger ones of the season. They are woeful on the road having won just once and drawn just once scoring just 5 times in 10 games. They even managed to lose at home to Barrow on Saturday and like Hartlepool the FA Cup replay they had which went to penalties might have been behind the lackluster performance. Orient are beginning to look like they might be hard to catch at the top of the table. They have lost just once all season and have conceded just 13 goals all season whilst scoring 42. They got a huge win on Saturday against Wrexham when Bonne got a crucial goal 4 minutes from time. He deserves to be playing in the Football League and there is every chance he will be doing that with Orient next season. Aldershot lost 4-0 to Salford in their last away match and this should be a comfortable night for Orient and they should cover the -1 handicap which looks a cracking bet to me.
Maidstone v Eastleigh
I wonder if Maidstone might have one eye on the FA Cup match at the weekend as they weren't great on Saturday when I tipped them up. Granted a sending off didn't help, but they were already a goal down at the time and ended up losing 5-2. They did beat Macclesfield at home in the FA Cup a couple of weeks ago, but they have only won once at home in the league all season and I don't expect them to get a 2nd here. Eastleigh are strong away from home and I am beginning to think that they could be play-off contenders as they are creeping into contention. They are 5 games unbeaten now and are playing well. It probably wont be a goalfest, but I do expect the away side to nick it as they are the better side.
Salford v Harrogate
I am going to oppose Salford again because as I wrote on Saturday I think they are going to lose a league game sooner rather than later. It could well have been Solihull on Saturday as Solihull did score but it was ruled out. At the time of writing I haven't seen the goal yet, but it was a contentious decision as the ref had to consult with his linesman after originally giving the goal. Harrogate started slowly against Braintree on Saturday, but found their stride after going a goal down and ran out easy 3-1 winners in the end. They are only 3 points behind their hosts on Tuesday with a game in hand and have lost just two games so far this season in the league. It obviously is no gimmie, but I do think they should be shorter than the price they are as I would have them around 2/1 to win this so they are certainly worth a bet.
Chesterfield v Bromley 1pt draw @ 127/50 with Marathon and Chesterfield to win 1pt @ 21/20 with Betfred
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 127/100 with Marathon
Leyton Orient -1 3pts @ 7/5 with Betfair and Betfred
Eastleigh 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
Harrogate 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
 

Previews to follow
 
Eastleigh v Chesterfield
Obviously going for the draw again here. Chesterfield may have beaten Billericay 3-1 on Tuesday night, but it could easily have been a draw as Billericay created enough to get a point. I also wouldn't read too much into the fact that they scored 3 goals as they also did that in the previous round of the FA Cup against Fylde and it didn't do much for their scoring ability in the league. Eastleigh come into this in good form and have improved after a little sticky spell after Hessenthaler left to go to Dover. They are unbeaten in 4 and that includes draws against Salford and Leyton Orient and to be fair they should have beaten Salford, but as we know Chesterfield make themselves very hard to beat conceding few and scoring few themselves and this could easily end up in another point apiece. 
Ebbsfleet v Halifax
I am also tipping up the draw in this game. Gary Hill has come in as Ebbsfleet manager, but they don't really seem to have improved and they have struggled in front of goal. Both these sides were in FA Cup action on Tuesday and the home side lost 2-0 to Cheltenham, but Halifax caused an upset when beating Morecambe 1-0. Halifax have only picked up 1 win on the road which was their first game of the season, but they have managed 4 draws including getting points at Sutton, Wrexham, Solihull and of course they drew at Morecambe in the Cup. With Ebbsfleet having been poor at home all season, with little to suggest that Hill has improved them at home, I can easily see this being a draw especially as both sides could be a bit leggy after Tuesday's games.
Havant & Waterlooville v Maidstone
This could be a tight game as well but there is no way Maidstone should be as big as they are. Their away form has been pretty decent of late as they have only lost once in their last 5 away league games. They look an improved side under the new manager and they got a very good draw at home to Wrexham last week. Havant have started picking up points as well and are unbeaten in 3 now including 2 home wins. The problem is they were against a Maidenhead side who had their keeper sent off (albeit they won 7-0) and Halifax. This game for me is tougher and their is definite value in backing the away win as I would have these two sides prices much closer together.
Solihull Moors v Salford
Salford hadn't lost in sometime prior to their defeat against Shrewsbury in the FA Cup on Wednesday night, but they have been pretty fortunate to not have lost before then. They have not been playing at their best in the whole and twice in their last 5 league games they have needed a 90th minute goal to get a point. They have also drawn against Ebbsfleet and were lucky to get past Marine in the FA Cup. They played well at Barnet and did beat Aldershot 4-0 last Saturday, but Aldershot are woeful on the road so that doesn't add up too much. Solihull are still in the play-off positions and are having a superb season. They have only lost one of their last 10 league games and have lost once at home all season. If Salford aren't at their best again then Solihull are more than good enough to punish them and are well worth a bet at the prices.
Alfreton v Farsley Celtic
Alfreton's only win in their last 9 league games came against Nuneaton last Saturday which says it all really and they have been really struggling after a good start to the season. I fancy an upset here in the FA Trophy as the away side are flying in the Evo-Stik Premier. They have only lost one of their last 10 league games and have been solid on the road. They are very much in the promotion picture and are more than good enough to get a win against their National League North hosts here.
Spennymoor v Halesowen/Truro City v Greenwich
This double is the Nap of the weekend for me. Spennymoor are having another good season in the National League North and had a good run in this competition last season. They should be more than capable of beating a Halesowen side who are really struggling at the moment in the league below. Truro have really found some form in the National League South and they really should be beating a Greenwich side who are two levels below and have only won 3 league games all season and sit in 18th place.
Eastleigh v Chesterfield 1pt draw @ 11/5 with Bet365, Skybet & William Hill
Ebbsfleet v Halifax 1pt draw @ 11/4 with Bet365
Maidstone 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Solihull 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Spennymoor/Truro City 2.5pts double at 1.16/1 with Betfred

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.
Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.
Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.
Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.
It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

Watford V Liverpool
Watford +1.25 AH @ 1.80 Betvictor
The price is already starting to shorten on the home side so I'm gonna have to pull the trigger now.
Watford are harsh noise at Vicarage Road, their intense midfield press, physical style and decent home support is enough to cause most of their EPL opponents problems this season. It's true that Liverpool could obliterate the majority of teams at EPL level and so fading them with big asian lines still carries risk. Despite this, we have to be brave; key goal metrics do not favour Liverpool that much here and once you factor in home v away dynamics, the disparity between the two sides is even less. ELO ratings also show Liverpool's attacking performance advantage dwindling.
A trip to Vicarage Road is probably not what the doctor ordered for Liverpool after returning from the international break. Watford can make things difficult for their opponents here.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.
Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.
Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.
Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.
It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

A game that Chelsea are capable of loosing but Sarri's team are light years ahead on key goal metrics and ELO - the technicals favour Chelsea. Despite this, I was expecting both teams to be on a 0 AH line for this game, and that's how they've been priced.
It's a bit of an awkward fixture: weird derby with either side capable of winning, comming off the back of international break. Personally I wouldn't be confident in backing any 1X2 or AH selection with the prices as they are.
GL if you decide to play.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.
Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.
Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.
Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.
It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.
Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.
Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.
Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.
It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

Watford V Liverpool
Watford +1.25 AH @ 1.80 Betvictor
The price is already starting to shorten on the home side so I'm gonna have to pull the trigger now.
Watford are harsh noise at Vicarage Road, their intense midfield press, physical style and decent home support is enough to cause most of their EPL opponents problems this season. It's true that Liverpool could obliterate the majority of teams at EPL level and so fading them with big asian lines still carries risk. Despite this, we have to be brave; key goal metrics do not favour Liverpool that much here and once you factor in home v away dynamics, the disparity between the two sides is even less. ELO ratings also show Liverpool's attacking performance advantage dwindling.
A trip to Vicarage Road is probably not what the doctor ordered for Liverpool after returning from the international break. Watford can make things difficult for their opponents here.

FA Cup weekend was rather profitable backed up with FCUM winning at a big price in the league and then Tuesday night it was 2 from 2 with Southport and Dartford both winning. Hopefully that will continue on Saturday and I have 7 bets this weekend.
Chesterfield v Havant & Waterlooville (National League)
I was all set to be all over Harrogate at odds against, but the game has been called off as Maidenhead have too many players called up for international duty. The rest of the fixtures look tricky from a punting point of view, but I have to carry on with my backing Chesterfield to draw system. 3 matches on the bounce it has paid off now and I also had the 1-1 draw covered when they played Halifax a few weeks ago. They have drawn 8 of their last 10 league games and 6 of those draws have been 1-1. When you chuck in the FA Cup game last week which was also a 1-1 draw I am kicking myself for not putting that up for the last 3 weeks! However we can't be too greedy and I will just stick with the draw again. To be honest it does look like a winnable game for the home side, but Havant had last weekend off so they will be fresh and ready and they have managed to win their last 2 games so I am backing the draw again.
Dulwich v Oxford City (National League South) I was surprised that Dulwich lost to Truro last Sunday although it has to be said that Truro do seem to be improving and that made it 4 games unbeaten for them in the league. As for Dulwich that was the 2nd disappointing result in a row as they also blew a 2 goal lead against Weston last Tuesday. They are 4 games unbeaten at home though and I think it is worth opposing Oxford City again. Dartford should have been well out of sight before Oxford made it 3-2 on Tuesday night such was their dominance especially in the 1st half. By all accounts the fact Oxford had been involved in such a tough game at Tranmere 3 days prior showed. Here the focus will surely be on the replay especially as it is on BT Sport and Dulwich are more than good enough to make them pay.   Boston v Southport (National League North) I have to continue backing Southport after 3 superb results now as I get the feeling they are finally showing the reason I backed them ante-post for the title. Granted beating Hereford at the moment is nothing special, but they put the game to bed with ease and I always like it when a team does that whatever the opponents. It is important to try and find teams who are playing better than their league position suggests as the bookies will always price those sides up bigger than they should as they have here. Boston were another one of my ante-post tips for the title and they are having a solid season only being 6 points off the lead, but in their last 5 league games they have only beaten Hereford and as things stand Southport are looking in better form at the moment.   Darlington v Hereford (National League North) For the 3rd game running I have to oppose Hereford. Yes they went down to 10 men on Tuesday night, but they were never really in the game and this is a really tough match for them given how long it has been since they won a league game. The home side meanwhile are unbeaten in 5 league games and have only lost one of their last 8. They have drawn their last 3, but their last two games have been against Bradford and Guiseley so they would have been harder games than this. Hereford have only won one away game all season and Darlington have had a couple of weeks without a league game so should be raring to go against a team low on confidence.   FCUM v AFC Telford (National League North) The home side have yet to win at home, but surely that will change soon given they have shown massive improvement of late. They are now unbeaten in 5 league games and have scored 3 in their last two. Now Telford will be tougher opponents than Blyth or Hereford and are obviously having a good season, but I think FCUM certainly offer value at over 2/1 given like Southport they are clearly playing better than their league position suggests.   Barwell v Kings Lynn (Evo-Stik South Central) Barwell cost us big time a couple of weeks ago when they conceded a penalty in injury time against Bedford and hopefully they won't cost us this time as I think Kings Lynn look a cracking bet. Even before Ian Culverhouse came back as manager they were improving after a tricky start to the season as they are unbeaten in 7 league games, but they have comfortably won both games since he came back. Given how good they were under him last season I am expecting them to be a major force in the division and possibly even push for the title as they are only 9 points behind at the moment. They are a better side than their hosts and after that draw against Bedford they have still only won once at home this season.   Reddtich v Lowestoft (Evo-Stik South Central) I opposed Redditch a few weeks ago against Biggleswade which was a winning bet, but having wondered if their new manger would improve them or not given their seemed to be plenty of issues I certainly got that wrong. I didn't think he would, but he has as they then won their next 4 league games.They did lose 4-0 to Stourbridge on Tuesday night to break that run, but then Stourbridge are 2nd in the table and Lowestoft are certainly no Stourbridge. They have only picked up 1 point in their last 7 league games and have only won once away from home picking up just one other point. Redditch certainly look in much better shape and can bounce straight back from the Stourbridge defeat.   Chesterfield v Havant 1pt draw @ 5/2 with Bet365 Dulwich 1pt @ 61/50 with Marathon Southport 2pts@ 68/25 with Marathon Darlington 2pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power and Betway FCUM 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power Kings Lynn 2.5pts @ 71/50 with Marathon Redditch 2pts  @ 7/5 with BetVictor

Not too many Non-League games this mid-week but a couple of matches have caught my eye from a betting point of view.
Hereford v Southport (National League North)
The knives are out for Marc Richards from the Hereford fans already. The fans weren't happy in the first place that he was the new manager and given they are yet to win under him they are getting angrier by the match. Opposing them on Saturday was a very profitable decision as FCUM ran out 3-1 winners having scored their goals in the space of 4 1st half minutes. They are now in the relegation zone and if Ricco doesn't turn it around soon then he will probably regret moving from Gloucester last month and taking up the role here. Usually I would want to oppose a team who are coming off the back of a big FA Cup win as Southport are doing, but there are strong signs that they are turning their season around. They put in a very impressive performance to win 4-1 against Kidderminster in their last league game and then followed that up with a 2-0 win against Boreham Wood on Saturday which was a good effort as Wood always make themselves hard to beat. I hope that those performances mean they now have the momentum and instead of being distracted by the Cup they use it as an incentive to start climbing the table especially as they face a team who are going to be under huge pressure in front of their own fans. At 89/50 with Marathon I think Southport are a decent bet.
Dartford v Oxford City (National League South)
After watching my 7th game of the season in this division on Saturday I feel strongly that their is little between the sides in this division this season and games are generally being won via small margins rather than teams being superior. That means taking short odds is going to generally be a bit of a risky proposition, however I am going to back Dartford here because I think there is a very strong case to do so. Dartford have only lost once in their last 7 games and are finally getting going after a slow start to the season. At home they have only lost once so far and given the tightness of the division they will be one of many teams eyeing up a play-off spot. They didn't have a game on Saturday so will have had extra rest ahead of this one which is something Oxford certainly didn't have. Fair play to City because I didn't think they would be in the hat for the 2nd Round draw, but they put in a hell of a performance to draw 3-3 with Tranmere on Saturday. That game is surely going to have left it's mark and it would be easy to think they will be having their minds on the replay which must have a high chance of being on TV. Prior to winning at Hampton last time out they had only picked up 1 away point all season and that came at Weston. The home side are basically even money with Marathon and for me there are very sound reasons to think that is too big.
Southport 2pts @ 89/50 with Marathon
Dartford 3pts @ 99/100 with Marathon

The next striker we buy needs to have the ability to magic himself out of the treatment room
Selling Murray was probably the worst bit of business the club has done since being back in the EPL. We'd be flying if he was in the team now.
Anyway, glad you're alright. I have mixed feelings about Brighton scrapping the clackers, they provided such lol's. I guess some of you do have some honour left.

@StevieDay1983
I think GJ signed them once he joined. I have known a Torquay fan for years, and he follows them through thin & thin (no thick to be had!). I have always kept an eye out for them, and have now ditched my season ticket at the Albion (although I am going to the Palarse game). I'll report back on the non league thread after Tuesdays game.
Anyway, on to matters concerning our teams. I can't see past a draw either to be honest. We haven't played well in our games against Wolves, West Ham or Newcastle, but have got 9 points!. I think that Brighton will be hard to beat, it should be a low scoring game, but I think the value may be with Cardiff on the corner handicap market. Brighton have been getting 1/2 corners a game, whilst the opposition are getting 9/10.
 
Cardiff most corners 1.72
cardiff AH -1 corners 2.2
Good luck, and may it be an entertaining game, with no clackers in sight!

I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the under/over market in the Palace Spurs match.  Matches between these two over the past couple of years have been tight, in fact it has been a 1-0 to spurs scoreline in each of the last four league games.  Palace also won 1-0 in an FA cup game so the 1-0 streak in all competitions is currently at 5.
I see no reason not to think this will be another tight and low goal encounter.  Palace don't score many- I think its only 2 home goals all season, both penalties in the last match.  Spurs aren't as free scoring as they have been in recent seasons. 
The outright price on Tottenham does not appeal, though if it drifts to evens i'd be happy to take that price.  This will be spurs 8th away PL game already this season, and they've won 6 and only lost 1, so going to Selhurst Park shouldn't faze them.
I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.

If you want to see most of my bets for this weekend then go to the FA Cup forum as that is where they are. With only BetVictor having priced up the FA Trophy that means there aren't that many league games to get my teeth stuck into so I only have the one bet in the National League North.
Hereford v FUCM
I wrote last week that FCUM look like they were improving and it was a bit frustrating for them to blow their lead that night only for them to come out and easily beat Blyth on the Saturday. Hopefully it can pay off backing them here because they look a big price to do so. I also opposed Hereford on that Tuesday night and they also got a point against AFC Telford. They also got a point last Saturday, but their run without a win continues and although there are signs of improvement given they have drawn 3 of their last 4 games, it is hard to understand how FCUM are such a big price given FCUM have still had the better recent results. They have actually been backed in which isn't a surprise, but I still think 11/4 (Betfred) is too big and I suspect the price will continue to fall.
FCUM 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred

As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action. I am going to tip up a couple of upsets, but nothing at really huge odds has really grabbed me this year. I’m sure a big price will land, but there didn’t seem an obvious candidate for me this time around.
 
Maidenhead v Portsmouth
This game is the live Saturday lunchtime match on BT Sport and it is easy to see why they choose it, but I would be really shocked if we see an upset here. Maidenhead are in desperate form at the moment having lost 6 on the bounce in the league and they needed a replay to see off National League South side Chippenham to reach the 1st Round. Now defeats to the likes of Salford and Leyton Orient I can understand, but they have lost to Havant and Dover in their last two matches. Granted they had their keeper sent off in the Havant game whilst it was still 1-0 and they had to play with an outfield play in goals for over 50 minutes, but to lose 7-0 still isn’t great. In those 6 games they have conceded 23 times and scored just once and I think they are just about the worst side in the National League at the moment. Portsmouth on the other-hand are the best team they could possibly be facing as they sit 3 points clear at the top of League 1 at the moment. The have lost just one league game all season and they should be able to see off the home side with little fuss. Obviously they are priced up accordingly but the 10/11 for them to cover the -1 handicap makes a lot of appeal.
 
Aldershot v Bradford
Another game where a National League side takes on a League 1 side, but Bradford are at the opposite end of the table. They have lost 13 of their 17 games in League 1 and have just 10 points. If we narrow it down to their last 10 games they have picked up just 4 points, scored only 6 goals and have lost 6 games on the bounce. They won’t be looking forward to going to an Aldershot side that are very strong at home. They don’t look the same side who has reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, but their home form has been very strong with them winning 6 of their 10 games at home and losing just 2 of them. One of those defeats was to Maidstone and it’s fair to say Aldershot completely dominated the game and should have won. This tie is just the sort of match that I look for as a possible upset as Bradford will be very low on confidence and Aldershot have northing to lose. Betfair are best about a home win at 11/5.
 
Chesterfield v Billericay
The backing Chesterfield to draw theory proved profitable again last week, although Harrogate left it very late to equalize. For new readers Chesterfield have now drawn 8 of their last 10 league games. They might be playing a team from the league below this week, but obviously Billericay are no ordinary Step 2 team. I think they are more than capable of holding their own and they can easily get a replay. The draw is priced up at 12/5 with Bet365.
 
Maidstone v Macclesfield
I rarely bet in the Football League, but my first ante-post bet of the year was backing Macclesfield to go straight back down. Fair play to them on wining the National League title last season, but they weren’t the best team in the league (something Tranmere are showing this season). They have very little money and with John Askey moving on it was always going to be a tough task. So far so good with that bet as they have only picked up 7 points, winning just the once. Now Maidstone are hardly the best side in the National League and they have only won once at home in the league, but I think this is just the sort of game that will see the home side perform at their best which will make them very dangerous against a team who are basically a National League side anyway. Bet365 and Betfair go 11/5 about a home win and that makes plenty of appeal.
 
Barnet v Bristol Rovers
In the 2013/14 Conference Premier season these two teams finished first and second, which is probably why the BBC have moved it to a Sunday lunchtime. A bit like how Macclesfield weren’t the best team last season I thought Bristol Rovers were the best team that season (this coming from someone who backed Barnet for the title ante-post) and they have done well since finding themselves in League 1. Barnet are already back in Non-League football and they have had no luck with injuries this season. I think John Still has a strong squad and could still make the play-offs, but performances have been a bit in and out and they weren’t great in a 2-0 defeat by Maidstone last week. Rovers’ away form has been pretty solid as they may have lost 4 of their 9 away league games, but they were all by a single goal. They have drawn 3 and won twice. This is obviously a much easier task than they usually have and they should be odds on to win this in my view so 21/20 (William Hill and Skybet) looks a good bet to me.
 
FA Cup Acca
There are 5 teams who I think look bankers this weekend and the acca pays just over 5/1 with Skybet. I have already mentioned Portsmouth so they certainly go in. On the Friday night the BBC have decided to show Haringey v AFC Wimbledon which was an easy choice and people may think because the Dons are struggling in League 1 that their might be an upset. I can’t see it though as Haringey are a below average Step 3 side and the gulf in class is huge. It is also worth noting that Haringey had a pretty kind draw to make it to the 1st Round. Another Step 3 side Met Police are at home to League 2 Newport and again it is hard to see how Newport don’t have a fairly comfortable afternoon. Tranmere host National League South side Oxford City and they should be too strong for them. Finally on the Sunday Hitchin, who are another struggling Step 3 side, host National League side Solihull Moors. Moors are having a superb season and can add to that by making it to the 2nd Round.
Portsmouth -1 3pts @ 10/11 with Skybet and Betfred
Aldershot 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfair
Chesterfield v Billericay 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365
Maidstone 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
Bristol Rovers 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and Skybet
AFC Wimbledon/Portsmouth/Newport/Tranmere/Solihull 1pt acca @ 5/1 with Skybet

@Mindfulness great selections mate, I also went with X for both.
I fancy Burnley in the double chance but it's Leicester's first game at home since their chairman passed no? Too many uncertainties and lack of value for me.
Value bets:
Man Utd X2 or EH+1 @ 2.90
Spurs BTTS and win @ 3.20
Bournemouth win @ 2.60  those feeling risky can go for BTTS and win as Bournemouth are allergic to clean sheets
West Ham win @ 2.20
I play superbru (prediction game) so for something different this week I'll list my correct scores instead of bets...
Cardiff City v Brighton CAR 0 - 0 BRI Huddersfield v West Ham HUD 0 - 2 WHM Leicester City v Burnley LEI 2 - 1 BUR Newcastle v Bournemouth NEW 1 - 3 BOU Southampton v Watford SOU 1 - 1 WAT Crystal Palace v Tottenham CRY 1 - 2 TOT Liverpool v Fulham LIV 3 - 0 FUL Chelsea v Everton CHE 3 - 0 EVE Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers ARS 2 - 0 WOL Man. City v Man. United MCI 2 - 2 MUN @Roy The Boy maybe I'll get my missus to throw some predictions down next week...