Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: Guineas
Im just having a go at the amature odds compilers at these so called bookmakers, when it comes to top meetings/races, they have not got a clue. They made huge mistakes at Cheltenham, and they made a massive boo boo today. Yeah I like to rub it in, :nana , is that a sin?Such a big head Prime 'when' you get it right. Dont you read your PM's either? Or are you just ignorant as well. -
Re: Guineas So the 2nd classic. What can win a G1 in here, the french are poor. I would not back moth with foney money. One overrated horse. This will be lucky to win a G3. Back to Newmarket a couple of weeks ago, Hot Snap, was green as grass, and still brushed a good field aside. She does not have to improve to take this, but you can bet your life HC will have improved her. She is the only realistic 120 horse here, she will prove it tomorrow, 11/4 most books, should be evens, makem pay for a 2nd day, by 4 or more imo.
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Re: Guineas
And it was over 3....eeaaaaasssseeeedddddd, dddddooooowwwwnnnnnTimes are for Buses. Belive your own eyes. Dont beleive hype. THANK YOU WILLIAM HILL......Your top dollar mugs, in your price room, simply do not have an IGLOO....So many holidays paid for today.:ok -
Re: Guineas Times are for Buses. Belive your own eyes. Dont beleive hype. THANK YOU WILLIAM HILL......Your top dollar mugs, in your price room, simply do not have an IGLOO....So many holidays paid for today.:ok
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Re: Swansea City v Manchester City > Sat 4th May Just a side point, since Dec 2009, man city have a win record of 60%, what a record in the PL. And some people say he should go. Today, we have a team on holiday, and a team playing for contracts and places at the 2nd best team this season, no brainer, MAN CITY. at 4/5.
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Re: Punting advice 25 on tornado at SP is a free one imo
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Re: eurovision 2013 2 weeks today, the final is on. RUSSIA, at 14/1, ew first4, is a knocking bet, no way this will be out of the 4, and with the voting, who knows. Denmark are worthy faves, but far to short in this event.
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Re: Guineas Some commentators in the RP and on TV....say this looks not to be a top draw 2000. Cant see their argument, I will say that there are a few G1, and plenty of G2 winners in here over the coming summer months, it's going to be a proper race, with TORANADO in here, I just have an opinion that it may be the best for form we have seen in some years. DA TORANADO GARSWOOD Thats my 123, Gl all.
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Re: Guineas DA 15/8 with WH, who da thought it. He wins this by 3 or more, Toranado won't live with his kick. And times are for buses. Take em to the cleaners, for something that should be odds on.
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Re: Guineas If we are to believe official ratings, DA should win this going away from Toranado. As JB says the faster the pace, the easier he will travel. Who will go 2/1?, not Ladbrokes that's for sure. Maybe 7/4, Corals I suspect. DA by over 3.
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Re: The Jockey Thread Yeah. DD. the man has a problem, he is not the first with a sporting talent to go down this road. THe BHA need to take a stand on this. SEnd him off to a clinic for a few weeks, get him straightened out, at 29, he is only going one way, he needs help. However, the BHA IMO, do little, to late, as always.
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Re: The Jockey Thread Graham Gibbons arrested at wolves today, rumors are driving related.
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 2.20 new SHE'S LATE 13/2 Hills bog Went to 120k at the sales, was supposed to run at newmarket and goodwood last back end. Gosden has always mentioned about it, and ill go with something of a quiet reputation at home.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 17th Sky Lantern 4.05pm Newmarket. 3/1 Coral Boyles PP A true G1-G2 Filly, she was due to go for the darling, and Maureen here, that alone is a better race, and has a very good record for the 1,000, but it was the ground, Ideal will be Good for her, and was'nt guranteed to get it at Newbury. But she will get it tomorrow, a fast drying track, espicially when the wind blows, as it will be over the next 24 hrs. Added to that she has a stable companion in the race, who is good in her own right, but at 3 door down, as only 1 way of running, Go from the gate, Sky lantern should get a nice lead here. Also she was a big gangley looking at times filly, and started to fill out in October, and by all reports she has REALLY filled out, and has been working with the best, doing the best.. If sh dont go off 7/4 or shorter i will be amazed, I know there is weight discrepencies, but she has proved she is top draw, and for me is G1 class, and e/w for the Guineas is not a bad bet either. But 10/10 win bet for today.
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Re: Punting advice
An hour to go, and the front two are almost 7/2 joints, Winds and Waves almost 10/1...Whatever happens, getting 5/1 for either of the front two e/w, at 5/4 a place was the value here. A dirty e/w they will have called it.2.30 Exeter Highland Retreat 1pt win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes Your selection for tomorrow, This is a value e/w in my book, that has a hell of alot going for it, But to get the 1/4 odds there needs to be the 12 go to post, this will be highley unlikely, the books have a habbit of getting one withdraw to get the 1/5th in place. Also getting 5/1 will be difficult, ladbrokes have made a mistake, the horse should be no better than 4/1, expect him to be 7/2 if all 12 stand their ground. He has an outstanding place to run ratio, and professional handling last time, made a marked improvement, his last racem the 2nd has bolted up since, the 4th ran in a grade1. Off 125 the cd winner, should never be 2nd fav with Ladbrokes, never mind, 5/1. He is the vaule horse in this race. If i was doing a book on this race, I would have the front two in at 7/2, and be bigger on others the front two will fill 2 of the 3 IMO. -
Re: Punting advice
But thats it,,is it not?, when you feel the morning mark up price is a mistake, and your gut feeling is saying, I beleive the horse is trying today, so I'll have some of that..The odds makers may get a whisper about a non trier, but they cant cover them all, and they do make mistakes...Sometimes huge!Cracking thread, lads. Great stuff. Just spent a fair proportion of my lunch reading it. :ok I struggle to varying extents with a lot of what has been said! My idea of 'value' can probably be best described as a gut feeling - i.e. If i feel a particular horse has got a better chance than it's odds imply. -
Re: NEW TO RACING. LOOKING FOR SOME INFO PLEASE. At 62 years of age, have you come late into the world of betting for social means?, I mean retired, and looking to pass time or do you intend to make it a serious sport to follow. If it is the latter, it takes hard work, and there are many many pitfalls, and can become disconcerting. However if its the former, This site is better than any random tipping line etc, just have a look at BBOTD, see if you like a horse, and see yourself if it has a good chance, there are plenty who go on winning streaks, stay away from tipping lines, Your better off asking the dog or cat for a winner.
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Re: Nell Gwyn
I pm'd someone at about 9am this morning, and I was astounded at the 11/4 for sky lantern, I have her in at 7/4, so ive done the rounds with PP shops, taken the 11/4..as they say, thanks PADDY!. :ok However, she was due to go for the darling, and Maureen here, that alone is a better race, and has a very good record for the 1,000, but it was the ground, Ideal will be Good for her, and was'nt guranteed to get it at Newbury. But she will get it tomorrow, a fast drying track, espicially when the wind blows, as it will be over the next 24 hrs. Added to that she has a stable companion in the race, who is good in her own right, but at 3 door down, as only 1 way of running, Go from the gate, Sky lantern should get a nice lead here. Also she was a big gangley looking at times filly, and started to fill out in October, and by all reports she has REALLY filled out, and has been working with the best, doing the best.. If sh dont go off 7/4 or shorter i will be amazed, I know there is weight discrepencies, but she has proved she is top draw, and for me is G1 class, and e/w for the Guineas is not a bad bet either.:DReally looking forward to this race on Wednesday. I think the one to beat is going to be Sky Lantern despite her having to carry a penalty. She was progressive last year and followed up group 1 success in Ireland with an extremely unlucky run at the Breeders Cup. Can't say for sure whether or not she would have won with a clear run but she would have gone very close as she was travelling all over the field and she has an impressive turn of foot. I would expect her to go off favourite for the race with the main dangers being the like of Nargys, Lady Nouf, Winning Express and possibly Jadanna. Nargys has received glowing reports from Kieron Fallon in recent weeks and she did finish a good 2nd to one of the favourite for the 1000 Guineas last time out in Just the Judge. Cumani won this race in 2009 and I would expect her to be involved in the finish. Ed McMahon believes 7f is just about as far as Winning Express can go so it will be interesting to see how she fares. She might just be vulnerable to stronger stayers. Lady Nouf is the one that interests me the most other than the Hannon horse. I still haven't decided on which to back but I might be leaning towards the Haggas horse. She comes into the race as a maiden winner, so she certainly has plenty to prove. The maiden she won however, has been franked by both Secret Gesture and Desert Image who won on their next outings at Newmarket and Newbury respectively. The Haggas horse are running well at the moment and I love the breeding of this horse. I think she could be quite special. The other one that might have a squeak is the James Given trained Jadanna who will come into the race having had a run. That certainly gives her a fitness edge over her rivals and she isn't one to underestimate. She showed some very decent form last year over shorter, which is why I feel she may be in the same boat as Winning Express and find 1 or 2 finishing off the race much better. -
Re: BBOTD Monday 15th
Form is temporary, class is permanent. However your selection, ran too fresh in the first 3 Furlongs, This will win next time out, so long as he has something in front of him, He battled on well, however could never reduce the 1/2 len he lost at the 1 1/2 marker, tried hard but just failed. The front two were in a different parish. Keep it going, nothing wrong with your selection.:)The number of times I've hit the woodwork. Still no winner :( -
Re: Punting advice
If you carry on with that percentage increase, expect to be closed by royal ascot. :lolCan't count the number of 10/1 to 20/1 winners I had recently I'm arbing so ideally want the bloody things to lose to build up the betfair account - Started with £30 in my BetVictor account 3 months ago and now got almost £500 - annoying :D -
Re: Punting advice Also, N,Henderson has had 9 favs of his last 12 runners, and none have won, but the books, will price up on history, not that the stable is in a slight down turn, and here is were you will get value on the opposition.. He has 3 in the 4pm at Kemp, IMO the books will look to get his 3 runners, as well as the down turn, the top 3 are far superior. But the strong bookings, will keep the prices shorter than they should be.
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Re: Punting advice You can only price up, by 1. Race Conditions, i.e level, grade, trainer, course ground etc 2. SR for horses and trainers is very Important For ex in the race Winds and waves, should be a double figure price, does he stay 3 miles on a undulating track/., doubt it, can he win off 120?, thats the point. So i would entice on the win market, and of the first 4 in the betting, he would be my "one to get beat".
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Re: Punting advice 2.30 Exeter Highland Retreat 1pt win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes Your selection for tomorrow, This is a value e/w in my book, that has a hell of alot going for it, But to get the 1/4 odds there needs to be the 12 go to post, this will be highley unlikely, the books have a habbit of getting one withdraw to get the 1/5th in place. Also getting 5/1 will be difficult, ladbrokes have made a mistake, the horse should be no better than 4/1, expect him to be 7/2 if all 12 stand their ground. He has an outstanding place to run ratio, and professional handling last time, made a marked improvement, his last racem the 2nd has bolted up since, the 4th ran in a grade1. Off 125 the cd winner, should never be 2nd fav with Ladbrokes, never mind, 5/1. He is the vaule horse in this race. If i was doing a book on this race, I would have the front two in at 7/2, and be bigger on others the front two will fill 2 of the 3 IMO.
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Re: Punting advice You dont have to have double figure horses as the only value. Today in the first at LEP, the winner was freely abailable at around 8/13, here you had a group horse, that should have been 1/3 in my book. yes they backed it late on, but 13 eggs to 8, was pure value.
Guineas
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Guineas I had 20p ew at 15/8. I wish I had 50p e/w on, :$ and im sure i put it up somewere before the race, that he should be odds on....Mirage me thinks. And as for best bet of the day, waking up each morning will do me! Aidy ..Looks like you had a few last night, celebrating your win, or you were tired...either way well done in your Pick for the 2000. Nice to see your ahead.