Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: The Jockey Thread Mont Jess 250 southwell yet another fav out for the run...not a word said.:rollin
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Re: Betting syndicates You can't do better than Richard fahey
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Re: The Jockey Thread Joe fanning..mark johns tone in the first at lingfield....always trying, bookies love the outfit,,I bet the stewards don't even ask. Beware of this outfit. Tailed off last btw
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Re: False start to the Flat Whilst i agree with all you put, we now have to accept...the Cheltenham Paddy Power is the start of the jumps, and the Chester may meeting is the start of the flat, alot of rubbish in between, except for a few races. I do think the fixture list is cramped with low grade meetings. The bookies love it.:\
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Re: Fair Along Dies of Colic A credit to his owners and trainers. RIP
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 2nd 2.40 EXETER LORD PROTECTOR..4/1 LADBROKES VICTOR BOG 0.5 POINT E/W 15 runner hcap 1/4 odds, another bet to nothing, very first run, altho beaten 9 lens, by puffin billy, LP is rated 37lb below, got in here off 111. Looks a steal to me, 39 days off freshened up, easy place bet, with potential to win. 10/10 place e/w bet.
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Re: eurovision 2013 Who will be able to afford it next year?, Costs a pretty penny to run, Uk, Germany, Scandanavian countries.....can, but fixed block voting, is still rife, no matter how good the song is. The money song on BF is never wrong, free money IMO,,:cigar
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Re: Reading Greyhound Form to find VALUE?
A very good offer of help. Im sure there is value in BAGS cards, and Im sure people will want to know certain details within this sport. Its not my sport, but good on you.:DI bet successfully on Bags daily. I go into shops, read the form and find value either on betfair or in the shop. Dogs get overbet and underbet so many times daily that you can pick very good value punts in about 25-40% of races and you don't need to know everything about a track or it's trainer etc. Simply reading the form lines off the rag (correctly!!) will give u an idea of what kind of chance each dog has in the race. Amazingly I see most punters can't read the form or misread totally. The second part is then watching the betting and reading between the lines. This is quite difficult. It takes a lot of experience to know which money is smart and which is dumb.the best The best opportunities arise when there is one fav getting backed. Often huge value appears in one or two outsiders. The bookies and shops just want to balance the books and so they will push out the prices on dogs well beyond their true price to offset the piles of liability mounting up on a short price fav. Dogs in bags races are notoriously inconsistent and average. So bad favs crop up time and time hour after hour. That said 'gambles' are for the most part significant and if you see a dog get gambled heavy there will often be a good reason follow the money. I'm happy to talk with anyone about sharing reading the form and how to develop a sense of when to follow a gamble and when not and perhaps we can learn from each other. Message me. -
Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f How anyone is discounting FR out the 3 here, needs to look again...Aintree, Good ground, OR 173.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th There are maybe 2 or 3 that can break into the picture, who have not run in a national before. But last years race was run at a relentless gallop, the time this year will be very much the same given the conditions, 9mins to 9mins 10, That is your first port of call Imo, then trying to gauge what other horses could run at that pace, jump around, and being able to stay off their OR, and achieving a low 9 min plus time. It aint easy....
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th Its a factor you have to respect, what it does tell you is the National in the majority has always been the plan. As for the gamble, Id say now "IMPERIAL COMMANDER" will go off FAV, 1. the far east will see this as the class horse, 2. alot of media attention on him and the yard, who are in terrific form, He tho has not had a hurdle run.
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Re: Aintree
FR aint no 14/1 shot m8, not around here...Its his track n ground.I am not sure about Flemenstar. Yes the majority of his races have come on testing ground but he handled good ground perfectly well when bolting up in the Powers Gold Cup on good ground. Finian's back on good ground is a totally different horse. Could be an absolute cracker! -
Re: Aintree
I would think Flemenstar will be in trouble with the ground conditions, SS 5 runs on good, 5 wins, Cue Card is proven on Good. FR for the F/C for me. Any EVENS please, Corals? :rollinIs Sprinter Sacre vulnerable on Friday if both Cue Card and Flemenstar take their chance? -
Re: Aintree Weather Watch, 2013.
Also with the temo falling to minus, or hovering on zero overnight, and up to 9am, they will struggle getting water on the track, They will be more success on the National course, to try n get a bit of ease into it. Thursday SUNNY MAX 8, but a strong cold easterly wind 16-20 mph, it will feel more like 0. Friday n Saturday similar conditions with less of a wind. Wrap up well if you are going.Going National - Good to Soft, Good in places Mildmay & Hurdle - Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: Mildmay & Hurdle 7.6 on Monday at 11:00) Rails Mildmay & Hurdle - all running rail and hurdles are on outside line. Bends will be moved in each day Weather Monday to Thursday - Dry, easterly wind. Some sunny spells, feeling cold 7C, 0C overnight. I Personally think they will struggle to get the word SOFT in any of the descriptions over the 3 days..ZERO rain forecast, fast times, fast ground horses. -
Re: Aintree Weather Watch, 2013. Going National - Good to Soft, Good in places Mildmay & Hurdle - Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: Mildmay & Hurdle 7.6 on Monday at 11:00) Rails Mildmay & Hurdle - all running rail and hurdles are on outside line. Bends will be moved in each day Weather Monday to Thursday - Dry, easterly wind. Some sunny spells, feeling cold 7C, 0C overnight. I Personally think they will struggle to get the word SOFT in any of the descriptions over the 3 days..ZERO rain forecast, fast times, fast ground horses.
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Re: Irish Grand National + Jumps~ Monday 1st April BETVICTOR....Account closed 100%.:nana, if it was not already. Well done Bowles, just QPR to win tonight now...Thats probably harder to predict.:rollin Congratulations, 3 out the first 5.:)
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Re: The Jockey Thread
The 4.10 Yarmouth today...Drifted like a kite, from FAV, boy did he give that an educational ride in how to lose a race. He is rancid at times, the betting told you he was going to get beat, and he did, However the horse was well and truely good enough. You could never ever back him with confidence.I don't think Spencer is as bad as people suggest. When you ride like he does (hold up Hollywood style) it always looks worse when it seems like he has a load of horse under him that gets beat in a flashing finish. If he rode them all from the front and faded 1/2 f out he wouldn't get the same criticism. The one thing he does well is give a horse an education, teaches a horse how to go through a gap, how to switch around a field, how to drop in behind runners and go just off the pace, how to conserve energy and how to pass beaten horses. When you ride like that timing has to be perfect, exact precision. I'd agree that Ryan Moore is the best in the business at the minute but young Buick isn't that far behind. Watch the ride on Aiken last season in France, rode them to sleep from the front. Assessed how races are run in France (crawl and sprint), exploited it and took advantage. Some trainers give exact riding plans and others let the jockey decide during the race, maybe that is if they trust their jockey enough to make the correct judgment. There needs to be some flexibility within a race in case it doesn't pan out as planned (no pace) and that will split those jockeys that won't go on and make the running because it is against trainer orders and those that will make that judgment for themselves and possibly lead on a drop in/hold up horse because a crawl and sprint won't suit either. What I did find interesting at the weekend was an interview with Aidan O'Brien when he said the owners wanted them to be more handy with St Nicholas Abbey and stop holding it up so far in races. Those orders had been given to Aidan and passed on to Joseph and turned out to be spot on but how many owners would tell an owner how they want a horse to be ridden and how many leave that down to the trainer to work out? -
Re: Flat Racing April 1st JUSTINEO 3.20 WARWICK..Conditions. event. Around 11/8 - 5/4, is just about the best bet of the day, I did not put him up on that thread as he was too short. But todays conditions wont come easier for this decent horse, doing the rounds in Meydan, will be ripe fit today. 11/8 is a really good price, should be odds on. Cake walk IMO.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread The BOOKMAKERS have a massive say in the calendar..Have done for the last few years.
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Re: BBOTD Monday 1st April
2nd..went to 1-10 IR, ew paid, money back.,2.50 warwick..DIVINE CALL.5/1 sky PP freds bog. Won this race last year, under the exact same conditions, trainer in ok form, can run two ways, from the gun, or be held up, made all last year. I think he will trade very short IR. Cant see him being out the frame, Im on a little bigger, but nailed e/w for me. Bet to nothing. 0.5pt e/w. 5/1, 10/10 ew bet. Busy day GL all -
Re: BBOTD Monday 1st April 2.50 warwick..DIVINE CALL.5/1 sky PP freds bog. Won this race last year, under the exact same conditions, trainer in ok form, can run two ways, from the gun, or be held up, made all last year. I think he will trade very short IR. Cant see him being out the frame, Im on a little bigger, but nailed e/w for me. Bet to nothing. 0.5pt e/w. 5/1, 10/10 ew bet. Busy day GL all
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Re: The Jockey Thread My Opinion. Jamie Spencer, is rubbish in G1's G2's..I think he should have ridden at least a dozen more than he has, thru, being well,,"not up to the job" JO'B. Has got the fire power, without doubt, and my only worry, is not his placement of a horse in a race...thats fine, he does his homework, its the strength in that last furlong to get them home in a tight one, the strength must deminish when wasting away for such a tall jockey,,,, Lester was tall..but "brutal" to a horse in a finish, no other adjective can be used,,absolutely brutal..But thats all that mattered to him, getting a horse over the line in a G1. For his stud share. These days you wont get away with that, so for me J;OB is a more than capable pilot, and a well better jockey than spencer, but do remember, he was earmarked from a very early age to be number 1...by hook or by crook, and had the very best jockeys, teaching him all they know, on tap. You cant compare him with RM, Ryan altho having Stoute as a backbone for a yard, has had to really graft thru the ranks, to get his name in lights, and lets face it, if it was not for some really bad injuries in his 20;s...That G1 tally would be approaching 40 if not broken, He is wanted around the world to sit on horses....No other flat jockey in Europe comes near the "silent assain" at this present time. If he stays fit...... Ill say add another five G1's around the world this season. For who knows what trainer, If J'OB gets five G1's its only for 1 yard, I doubt there are many other top flat yards around the world would put him up first in a G1. Unless Coolmore owned a leg or two. Just my opinion.:D
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 31st 2.10 TOWCESTER CELTIC ABBEY WIN BET 11/4 CORALS, PLUS MOST FIRMS. Celtic abbey should be a stone above these at his best, excuses last time when beaten fav, this stiffer track is right up his street. Yard starting to hit form, is a plus. He really should be fav today, take advantage of his price, has been backed this morning, can see him coming strong today, and taking a big step forward. 10/10 win bet for me.
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Re: Dubai Carnival 4.40 MEYDAN..LITTLE MIKE..8/1 Why such a big price, ill tell you fallon, see his ride last time. Gary stevens will ride a cosy race on him today, i expect him to kick in the straight and show his class..8/1 is an outstanding price.:ok
False start to the Flat
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: False start to the Flat Have a look at the dodgy goings on today, Nuff said