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Primevil

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Posts posted by Primevil

    Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    Breeding on the Dam's side is all 3 miles so that suggests he would and breeder told Henderson he couldn't believe he wasn't running over 3 miles!
    Throughout last summer we seen a superstar, and evertime he turned up, there was people trying to find value against him, in the end the only value was the winning distance. Tomorrow steps forward another superstar, and there again we have people trying to crab him, some how, trying to find the cracks, Just like the great Frankel, There aint no flaws in SS...and after he wins tomorrow, you will have your 6/4 fav for the King George.:)

    Jump racing ~ Friday 5th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump racing ~ Friday 5th April

    2:30 Aintree: Sea Of Thunder 1pt win 11/1 William Hill Sea Of Thunder comes here as a fresh horse and the ground could be the key. He has been kept off course since disappointing on soft at Cheltenham in November. He can go well off a lay off so encouragement can be found there. By Old Vic he should stay this trip well and Barry Geraghty comes in for the ride which is another positive. 3:05 Aintree: Cue Card 2pts win 7/1 Coral Cue Card's win at Cheltenham was done no harm by First Lieutenant's victory on Thursday and he looks to have a real chance against Sprinter Sacre over this distance. Cue Card was staying on in the Arkle last year and with Sprinter Sacre likely to come under pressure with Flemenstar and Finian's Rainbow in opposition too, there may just be a turn up here. If there is a shock there could be a big pay off with an exacta. Cue Card / Finian's Rainbow 0.8pt Cue Card / Flemenstar 0.5pt Finian's Rainbow / Cue Card 0.2pt Flemenstar / Cue Card 0.2pt Finian's Rainbow / Flemenstar 0.1pt Flemenstar / Finian's Rainbow 0.1pt Cue Card / For Non Stop 0.1pt Total of 2pts staked on exactas. Should get a decent profit if either of top two combinations hit. A small profit on third and fourth combination. And a little more than money back if either of the other two come off. 3:40 Aintree: Tartak 1pt e/w 20/1 Bet365 (1/4 1234) & Gullible Gordon 1pt win 16/1 Ladbrokes Tartak has been dropping down the weights and last time at Cheltenham he looked to be returning to somewhere near his best. He also seems to go best on a better surface so today's going could enhance his chances. Peter Bowen has an excellent record in this race and he looks to have another live contender in the shape of Gullible Gordon He ran really well over these fences in December. A drop back in trip and better going could see him go close. 2 x 0.5pt exactas Tartak / Gullible Gordon
    Cue Card Arkle 2nd to SS Led until mistake and headed 9th, chased winner from 4 out, stayed on well to try and close on winner after 2 out and 4 lengths down soon after, readily outpaced from last but stayed on well for clear 2nd from an eased down winner. they could have went for another 1/2 mile that day, and the distance would not have shortened, tomorrow is 20f but on a far easier track. Gl tho, with your synopsis.:)

    Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    Flemenstar's form has to be respected though. Do you reckon SS would get as close as he did to the likes of Tidal Bay' date=' First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs over 3mile? Im definitely not saying that the Irish raider will win but back at his optimum on trip, with that strong form in the bank he could at least finally give SS a race! :)[/quote'] The ground is the question here. I know he won on good last year, but that had a bit of ease in it. This ground is only going to get quicker. I dont think connections ever thought SS or CC would turn up here, and £112k to the winner,,it was always the plan, without giving a hard race. Now its a diffrent ball game, the wind wont be as strong tomorrow, and they will go close to standard, CC FR MM will all be making this pace a strong 1, just to see if there are any kinks in SS stamina. Flemenstar has never beaten or been close to a standard time in all his races, whatever happens he is going to know what it feels like tomorrow, 13th March 2012. SS v CC, thats the pace they will go, and to be honest I see the same outcome.

    Trends for Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trends for Aintree

    GQ is also so much better off than last year too Always Waining should have had a go at the 4 timer IMO what a horse that is. The race looks very open to me
    Yeah wide open, but if tartak is on a going day, im hoping his touch of quality shines thru.

    Trends for Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trends for Aintree

    3.40 Topham Chase 10/13 - 8yo-10yo (other 3 were 5,7 & 11) 11/13 - Under 11st 10/15 - didnt run at Cheltenham 2/15 - Favs 12/13 - ran LTO Mar/Apr 1/13 - 6yo or 11yo (always waining broke this trend last year) 8/10 - 10st 6lb or less 0/13 - Topweights 13/13 - OR 123-141 2/13 - irish trained (from 62 runners) 8/9 - had ran over the national fences before Using the stat LTO in the last month & OR rated 123-141 removes Pacha Du Polder, Tranquil Sea, Little Josh, Walkon, Chance du roy, Fistal Beach, Lambro, Hectors Choice, Gansey, Last Time D'Alabain, Triolo D'Alene, State Benefit, Dashing George, Jamsie Hall, Gonebeyondrecall, Gullible Gordon, Dunowen Point, Sizing Santiago, Montoyas son, Billy Cuckoo – 20 horses in total Lets stick with recent years and weight 10st 6lb or less leaving a shortlist of: Renard 8yo - no course form Giorgio Quercus 8yo - 10th(in this last year) & 8th Theres no panic 8yo - no course form Bennys Mist 7yo - no course form Criqtonic 6yo - no course form Gus Macrae 9yo - 11th & 1st (chase Oct '12) Tartak 10yo - 15th (in 2012 race), 4th in Gr 1 melling chase twice, 3rd in Old Roan, 1st in Gr 2 Nov chase. Regal D'Estruval 8yo - no course form Mister First 7yo - no course form Arctic ben 9yo - no course form I will stick with those having course form Selections Giorgio Quercus 5pts ew 33/1 Skybet 1st 5 Gus Macrae 5 pts ew 40/1 Bet365 1st 5 Tartak 5pts ew 14/1 boylesports 1st 5
    Thanks, Tartak is over 20lb better in than this time last year. :ok

    Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    A big win lay of Sacre Sprinter and win bet on Flemensfirth for me. Taking Nicky Hendersons runners today. 1-1-11 his win and place horses came after below par runs at Cheltenham, his unplaced horses ran as if they'd had enough for the season. Oscar Whiskey, Rolling Star and Grandouet were particularly flat. Sacre Sprinter has 1 of those over the top, next Pegasus ratings that are coming along quite regular nowadays. Admittedly, he looks impressive, but what has he beat in achieving his rating this season? Sizing Europe is better over further and his best days are far behind him, the rest just glorified handicappers at best. He is no 1/3 shot over this distance. He's up against 2 20f grade 1 horses, forget FR, he's past it. Cue Card will go off and ensure a strong pace, Flensfirth will track him in order to pull the sting at out of SS. Cue Card will fade after suffering the effect of 3 grade 1 races in 6 weeks, whilst Fleminsfirth will be relatively fresh and racing over his optimum trip.
    So if/when he puts these in their place tomorrow by 10 or more, will you come back and tell us how he doesnt deserve the pegasus rating.:D

    Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri. 3.05: Melling Chase 2m4f The 4/11 for SS is value. You may say too short, but it all depends on how much you put on. Only a fall or bd, will stop you collecting. The fight for 2nd is very hard to predict. Corals have stuck their necks out again, offering SS at evens. But to win by 8 or more....Now thats interesting.:) Will he win by 8?

    Fri. 2.30: Mildmay Novices Chase 3m1f

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fri. 2.30: Mildmay Novices Chase 3m1f Very tough race to call, The problem for me with Dynaste, is he has never run this late in the season, he gave all at Chelt, and im worried about the recovery. And he should have won there with something to spare, but was beaten by a big price and a very big price in 3rd. 7/4, is too short. Super Duty wont get harrased here, and he is a true fighter, at around 5/1, he makes more appeal.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

    Battlefront perished on the course. Real shame but above all else what we as lovers of the sport didn't want to see when the RSPCA and the daily mail crew are just waiting to pounce on any fatality. Id have given up every penny l may win this week for there to be no horse casualties so as to say "up yours" to the do gooders out there.
    Its part n parcel of the game, these people have F all else to do.

    Jump racing ~ Thursday 4th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump racing ~ Thursday 4th April There are 6 races at Aintree today, were PN & RW team up, I would not be surprised one little bit if they hit at least a treble or better. PN had a poor cheltenham, i can see him coming back with a bang today. For me Silv Conti is the best evens I have seen in a long time, for me he will be close to winning by around 10 lens today, Ive said it many times that he is a flat track horse, on better ground, today he will prove that.:D

    Aintree Weather Watch, 2013.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Aintree Weather Watch, 2013. Going National - Good to Soft, Good in places Mildmay & Hurdle - Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: National 6.3 Mildmay 6.7 Hurdle 6.9 on Wednesday at 11:00) Rails Mildmay & Hurdle - all running rail and hurdles are on outside line, adding approx. 25 yards on Mildmay and 95 yards hurdle course per circuit Bends will be moved in each day Weather -3C o/night, dry. Wednesday - Dry with sunny spells, easterly wind 9C Thursday - Sunny spells am, becoming cloudier pm 8C, 0C o/night Friday - Cloudy, some sunny spells, poss. light shower pm 8C Saturday - Dry and cloudy 10C Watering Selective watering all courses to maintain

    THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th

    The 3 im fancying at the minute are Balthazar king' date=' Cappa bleu and Sunnyhill boy. Think il wait till the day though but i am tempted to put them on bet victor who are paying top 6 finish.[/quote'] Marvellous...3 decent picks, but you might as well put it on with them at SP, their odds are very very poor.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread

    Don't know how many of you saw the first at Southwell today but imo Far Gaze was mugged of the race by firstly the Mcabe horse and then' date=' more importantly the stewards. On more than 2 occasions the eventual winner came across far gaze and denied him a clear run up the nearside rail. Now admittedly im talking out of my pocket here (look in the bbotd thread for confirmation if you wish) but everyone at the track was of the same opinion that the race should have been awarded to Far Gaze. The rails bookie l spoke to after the last said that there was an objection raised by the 2nd horse but it was thrown out on regards that these are lightly/unraced 2 yr olds. Im sorry but that is completely unfair in my eyes. Just because interference is more likely to occur in these races does not make it more excusable or give the stewards more scope to throw out legitimate objections. l couldn't believe my ears when l never heard the bell go for a stewards in all honesty. RANT OVER!!![/quote'] Again 100% right, the well backed winner was never going to be thrown out, IMO the stewards were all on..Your horse was done over for about 100 yards, and its an absolute disgrace. How anyone could say the result was not affected. Beggars F beleif,,,Amatures sitting on a fence, :wall

    The Jockey Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Jockey Thread

    Yeah I watched that race' date=' looked a lot like a public schooling to me but the yard are in great form with a 25% strike rate in the last 2 weeks![/quote'] With respect to SR, yep, but why is nothing said, no one interviewed...Australia would have has a mike down someones throat...ATR is run by the bookies, and people that sit on a fence, more splinters than flesh.
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