Darran

Cheltenham could hardly have gone any better so it would be nice to repeat the feat tonight at Stratford tonight to end the hunter chase season. Here are my thoughts on the card.
NB prices were taken at around 9am this morning
6.05 Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2) 6.35 Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4) 7.05 Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) 7.35 Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4) 8.05 Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5) 8.40 Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)   6.05  Castle Daragh - Caused a massive shock when winning the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last time and after the race we found that his jockey who works for David Pipe actually trains him on his lunchbreak. That form is untrustworthy for me and the fact the 5th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday backs that theory up. The 2nd Gats And Co was pulled up in a handicap on his next start as well.   Caballo Diablo - Did well to win a 1 runner Restricted at Cocklebarrow on his seasonal return in January. Next start though he pulled up and possibly something was amiss as he didn't run for nearly 2 months. The 2nd to Latenightrumble on Easter Sunday was a fair effort given how he got on at Cheltenham and he then won in the fastest time of the day at Witton Castle. The problem is he ran on Sunday at Kingston Blount and he ran terribly. Hard to back him on the back of that.   Jay Bee Whisky - Showed a bit of promise last season in maidens, but he has really thrived this season as he won 5 on the bounce. He was well backed ahead of easily landing a maiden in November and his restricted success was even easier the following month as he hacked up by 20L. Connections decided to run him in another restricted as you are able to do now under a 5lbs penalty and he was well backed to win again. His next two starts were in a conditions race and a mixed open and he had two very easy wins at long odds on again, both over 2m4f. His first defeat of the season came in his last start on Easter Monday where he was an 8L 2nd to Looksnowtlikebrian. Now that one was just behind Castle Daragh at Chepstow, but I don't think he quite ran up to form that night as it came just 6 days after running in the Lady Dudley Cup. I also wonder if maybe Jay Bee Whiskey wasn't quite at his best in that race because he's had 2 months off since no doubt with this race in mind and he looks to have a leading chance.   Learntalot - Won on the first day of the pointing season at the start of November when going off at 4/6, but he hasn't got his head in front in 4 runs since and one of those he finished 3rd behind Jay Bee Whiskey. He looks to have a bit to find.   Mount Pleasant - Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs under rules for Nicky Henderson in the 21/22 season and whilst he won a maiden point last year he also struggled on occasions. This season he has really improved though and has won 4 of his six starts. He started off with a 5th in January when he ran like he needed the run. He then won 2 restricteds in good style and had Caballo Diabolo behind him in the first of those. He was then 3rd at Higham before winning an intermediate at Parham last month. The time was really slow though which is a bit off putting. He won again at Edgcote a couple of weeks ago although he did make harder work of it then it looked like he was going to do and he had to survive a stewards enquiry. The 2nd did boost the form by winning on Sunday though, but again it was a rather slow time. This race was highlighted after the race so it has clearly been a target and he has a chance.   Padjoes Legacy - Was pulled up behind Mount Pleasant in March, but has improved since then as he beat Well P by 5L at Kimble and then won a match at High Easter. I didn't really give him that much of a chance in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, but he ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd 4.75L behind Iskandar Pecos. He did look a hard ride that night though and he was on and off the bridle which isn't ideal he does that round here. No better jockey to keep him to his work though and if he can repeat that run he's got a superb chance here because that form for me is stronger than the Chepstow form.   Red Nika - Had shown promise under rules in the 20-21 season for Tom Lacey after winning a point maiden in 2019 for his wife and he then wasn't seen for nearly 3 years. He bolted up in a restricted when returning pointing in February, but then was put in her place by Wolf Walker who is a very promising horse despite losing at Cheltenham last time. I thought he had some sort of chance at Chepstow and did run well enough to finish a 3.5L 4th to Castle Daragh. At tonight's weights he actually has the beating of him and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form.   Well P - Has 5L to make up on Padjoes Legacy at Kimble on Easter Saturday when they were 1st and 2nd. He has won both his starts since though and bolted up by 15L at Edgcote last time in a time nearly 20 seconds quicker than Mount Pleasant's race although the final circuit sectional of the latter's race was slightly quicker. His first win this month was his trainers first win in 9 years!   Verdict - I don't think it is the easiest race to call and whilst I think Red Nika can reverse Chepstow form with Castle Daragh, I am happy to take them both on and hope I am right again about that form being weak. Mount Pleasant has done well this season, but it does worry me that his last two wins have been in slow races. Well P wouldn't be a surprise winner, but he does have ground to make up on Padjoes Legacy and I make him one of the bets. Yes I am slightly concerned about how he travelled at Cheltenham, but I thought it was a superb effort to finish 3rd and its the strongest form in the race for me. The other one to back is Jay Bee Whiskey who has looked very promising this season. Yes the 2nd last time wasn't quite as good, but he's been freshened up since then and that should see him bounce back to form.   Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)   6.35 Famous Clermont - Can't say I expected him to turn up in this race, but I guess he's had a limited season and this is really the only suitable race on the card for him so he may as well run. He hasn't got anywhere near the heights he reached last season in his 4 runs so far and I would have taken him on had he run at Aintree again. I do think Punchestown though showed promise as he did go quite far clear with Samcro at one stage and was clearly doing a bit too much. It was no surprise he got tired and after he made terrible mistake at the last where he basically stopped to a walk he was pretty much allowed to walk the rest of the way. This is a weaker contest and dropping down in trip round a tight track is going to be a more suitable test for him. This statement is no slight on Izzie who has just won the pointing ladies title, but we know Famous Clermont is a tricky ride and he takes a lot of knowing. Izzie is going to be at her best on him.   Shantou Flyer - Has had another fantastic season at the age of 14 and his 6th at Cheltenham was another cracking effort in the race. Since then he has finished 2nd to Master Templer, he then ran out on Olive as Stafford Cross which was a bizarre one as he's never looked like doing something like that before. After that he has had a couple of easy successes earlier this month. He won this race last year under a very good ride from Olive who made full use of his stamina round a trip and track which weren't certain to suit. Two things this time around though. First of all there was nothing as good as Famous Clermont in the race and secondly he has clearly regressed a little which is no surprise at his age.   Captain Biggles - Just won the restricted race on this card last year so we know he handles course and distance, but that race didn't contain anything like the quality of the other two. He's done well enough this season having won first time out and then finished 2nd in 3 points although he was beaten at 4/9 last time. He did also run in the Walrus at Haydock in February but not surprisingly got bogged down in the mud. He would need both the front two to run below par to win this.   Imperial Esprit - Was 15L behind Yccs Portocervo when 4th at Kempton, but has won 2 points since in good style. Would still be a surprise winner for me.   Shang Tang - He's had a solid enough season on his first term for his new connections having won a couple of points. The 2nd at Ludlow to Captain Tommy wasn't a bad effort either and he was in contention when unseating at the same venue in March. He found himself outpaced last time at Eyton over 2m4f though and I suspect despite the small field we could see a fast pace here and that might get him out of his comfort zone as well.   Verdict - Captain Biggles isn't completely out of this, but I suspect it will be between the top two in the betting. I do think Famous Clermont is the most likely winner, but quite frankly in my view his price stinks. He has enough doubts about his chance that he shouldn't be an odds on shot and I reckon Shantou Flyer is going to attempt to make it a test of stamina again if he can. He is the value in the race for me as I don't think he should be such a big difference in the betting between the two and you can almost be certain he will give his running whereas you can't be with Famous Clermont based on this season.   Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)   7.05 Forest Chimes - On the face of it he was a little lucky to win on his hunter chase debut at Stratford in March as the 2nd Grand Roi made a mistake at the last and lost more ground than he was beaten by, but Grand Roi is a thinker and I don't think he would have gone past whatever. Since he lost his maiden tag he has been a winning machine in points having won 6 of his 10 starts since April 2022. After the Stratford win he went to Chaddesley Corbett and got beaten although I don't think the jockey change would have helped. Darren Andrews was back on when he won earlier this month at Eyton and it was a very easy success over 2m4f. I think he's useful, but you do have to wonder about him over this far given how good he has looked over shorter this season.   Go Go Geronimo - Not the first time he has run in this race as he was beaten 0.75L by Ask D'man in 2022. His only other hunter chase start came in the big on at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. He run 5 times this season although one of those races ended up having to be stopped and voided. He finished 2nd 3 times and then managed to win last time, but he doesn't really look in the form where you think he is going to go and be capable of beating Iskandar Pecos. What he does have in his favour is he will make the running and that is never a bad thing round here although in this small field he could have competition for that role.   Iskandar Pecos - One of our winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and an astonishing price as well as he went off 3/1 in the end. It was another top effort and he has done nothing but improve all season. He obviously is the one they have to beat, but one note of caution is that he wouldn't be the first winner of the Intermediate Final to then disappoint in this race. Harbour Court was the last horse to do the double in 2013.   King Orry - To be fair his 3rd at Newton Abbot last week was much better than I thought he would go and no surprise the handicapper put him up from 64 to 87. Clearly his form isn't good enough to win this though.   Master Templar - Has proven himself to be a real stayer this season and I thought his 2nd to Gaboriot at Cheltenham over 4m was a new personal best. He was keen on that occasion and helped set quite a strong pace given the conditions and yet he still stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. That form was boosted at Cartmel on Wednesday night and his previous start saw him beat Shantou Flyer so that form might get a boost earlier on the card. I guess the big issue is how much that Cheltenham race has taken out of him, but it was only his 4th race this season so you would hope he'd be fine. Could be rivals for the lead again, but on paper he is better than those two rivals and we know he will keep going out in front so this track could be ideal for him.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase that she was 2nd in prior to joining Bradley Gibbs and on the face of it she has a bit to find with some of these. She mainly front ran in Ireland so might well be another to help make the running.   Verdict - We have a small field yet again for this race which is a shame, but despite that it does look like there will be plenty of pace on and that should suit Iskandar Pecos who can sit just off the pace and hopefully pick them off let on. I do think Master Templar will be a big danger and there isn't a huge amount of juice in Iskandar Pecos' price, but there is enough there to get involved.   Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)   7.35 Annamix - Great to see an Irish challenger in the big race and he is one that has a serious chance as well. He was entered at Punchestown and Downpatrick, but he's skipped both those and I wonder if this was a target after his really good 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He might have finished closer as well as a loose horse got in his way on the run-in. It was no surprise that he ran like he needed further because I think 2m5f is short of ideal for him. He's jumped much better than he did last season when even when winning at Fairyhouse he made plenty of mistakes. I think he will go very close.   D'Jango - Written plenty of times this season how big a fan I've been of him this term and how well his new trainer has done to improve him no end. The 4th at The Festival was a top effort and then he disappointed behind Master Templar in a point. No surprise to see him stay on so strongly even over 4m in the mud at Cheltenham last time and it was a return to form when he was 3rd to Gaboriot. I'd love to see him run well again, but I do wonder if Stratford is quite the track that will see him at his best and even a repeat of his Cheltenham effort probably wouldn't be good enough to win this.   Fairly Famous - Proved at Cheltenham why he had been sent off as 11/10 favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby back in February where he hated the ground. I thought it was a really good performance to tough it out against Premier Magic, who himself was putting in an improved performance. The better ground here is going to be perfect for him and he is one of the leading contenders.   Go On Chez - Has had 2 very easy victories in hunter chases the last couple of months at Ludlow and Kelso. This race does make sense for him to run in and I think he will stay. The ground is vital for him though and he needs it as quick as possible. I also just wonder if he's quite up to this level, but he's had a light campaign and that might end up being crucial so he's a possible winner.   Law Of Gold - Has a great record at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup and then this race the following year before the year after that finishing 2nd to Vaucelet. I didn't back him any of those times, but did really fancy him for last year's race and he duly ran one of his worst ever races. He also ran one of his worse ever races last time at Cheltenham where the ground totally went against him and he pulled up in the 4m race which he had won the year before. The ground should be fine tonight and clearly he can be forgiven his Cheltenham run and the run in this last year. He's not top of my list, but if he did get his title back it would not surprise.   Lift Me Up - Looked impressive at Newbury on his hunter chase debut last March, but then didn't back it up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. His Kimble win on Easter Saturday was impressive, but that was over 2m4f and to me he didn't stay at Cheltenham when a well beaten 3rd behind Fairy Famous and Premier Magic. The better ground will help, but then he also has further to travel so I can't see the Horner's having a big race winner.   Premier Magic - As mentioned above I thought it was a real return to form at Cheltenham last time after a couple of meaningless point wins and a poor performance at The Festival this season. The better ground is probably in his favour, but then it is also in Fairly Famous' favour as well and I don't really see how he can reverse the form.   What A Glance - Another one of the winners I put up at Cheltenham and what a win it was as well as he cruised into contention and only had to be pushed out to beat Yippee Ki Yay by 11L. That's strong form as he's a progressive horse himself and won at Kelso on Sunday. The handicapper put him up from 96 to 124 which is fully justified. I think the 2 2nds to Deise Aba were good efforts and the one here over 2m6f looked like he was tapped for toe over the trip. I'd love to see him run well, but my head says he probably wont be quite up to this level.   Verdict - What a race we have for the big one this year as I don't think any of them would be a total surprise if they won, even Lift Me Up has a good level of ability and I don't think there are any total no hopers. The two that I think have the biggest chance though are Fairly Famous and Annamix. I'm going to cover them both, but bigger preference is just for Annamix. The Aintree 3rd is the best piece of form in the race and he looks like he has been saved for this. Fairly Famous was so tough at Cheltenham last time and with this better ground set to suit I don't see how Premier Magic can reverse the form. I might regret not going in again on What A Glance given how impressive he was at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two and I have the same view on Go On Chez. Law Of Gold could be very dangerous though as you can forget his run in this last year and at Cheltenham last time and we know he loves the track.   Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)   8.05 Rebel Dawn Rising - Really gutsy effort to win at Cheltenham last time beating Cat Tiger by a length and the handicapper has kept him on 129 which is handy when it comes to this race. I don't think the testing ground would have been ideal that night and so the better ground should help here. This is the perfect trip for him and Dale's 3lbs will come in handy given he has joint top weight.   Stratagem - Did well hunter chasing in 2022 although he probably should have done even better and he was only 4th behind Solomon Grey at Cheltenham. This year he has been given a shocking campaign. I have no idea whose idea it has been to run him in the Southwell and Hexham races this season, but they were 2 races he shouldn't have run in. He doesn't really stay 3m and he hates heavy ground so first up they run him on soft ground over 3m at Southwell and no surprise he didn't see it out especially given how long he'd been off the track for. Next up they sent him to one of the stiffest tracks in the country on worst ground over 3m again. He duly finished 139L behind Jerrysback. Maybe getting his handicap mark down for this race was the plan, but I doubt it. This race should be much more suitable, but he has 12-9 to carry with David unable to claim so whilst I am expecting a better performance he wont be carrying my money.   Envious Editor - Was another horse that Joe O'Shea had massively improved back in 2022 and the start of 2023. When he won at Taunton last January he looked like he would go on to even better things, but he then ran terribly at Hereford and was put in his place by Famous Clermont at Haydock. I'm not sure why, but he left Joe's after that and whilst the 3rds at Ludlow and Cheltenham were OK they were more signs he wasn't in the same form. He was then stuffed in Ladies race on this card last year. Another new trainer this season and he only reappeared at Hexham's point track 2 weeks ago. Good effort to win after such a long time off, but I don't think it was a strong race and whilst in theory he is well handicapped I prefer others in the race.   Solomon Grey - Has run at this meeting the last 2 years, but he was never going to stay in the Horse & Hound a couple of years ago and whilst he ran well enough behind Shantou Flyer in the Ladies race last year he was always going to struggle to keep up with the speed he went round here. For me this is the race for him. He's been 3rd in all 3 starts far this season, but he always needs his first run of the season and there was 77 days between that and his course and distance 3rd behind Deise Aba and What A Glance. That's strong form for me and I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham behind Rebel Dawn Rising and Cat Tiger on ground he would have hated. He is going to get his ground tonight. At Cheltenham Solomon Grey carried 5lbs less, but here he is going to carry a stone less and there will be more improvement to come on the ground. I think he has a huge chance.   Peacocks Secret - Has run in this race the last 2 years. He was a well beaten 3rd in 2022 and then last year he was beaten 2L by Sixteen Letters when giving him 5lbs and this year he will get 5lbs because of his jockey's claim. Not sure he's been in the best of form this season though as even his win over Back Bar isn't great and then last time he was beaten at 1/2. In theory Back Bar should reverse the form at these weights as well. Think its clear his trainer thinks Rebel Dawn Rising has the better chance.   Sixteen Letters - Looked like he was going to be the best handicapped horse in the race last year and he was duly very well backed to win off a mark of 110. He's not run under rules since so just has the 3lbs rise to cope with. No doubt this has been the target, but I'm just not sure he is in as good form as he was this time last year. He was well beaten in his first couple of races of the season, but they were strong heats. He then had a couple of very easy tasks at ¼ before finishing twice. The first of which was still a decent a effort, but not sure the second of them was a great run. He then went to Peper Harrow a couple of weeks ago and won a weak 3 runner race. I think the other thing to consider was last year's renewal of this was pretty weak and I think this is a stronger renewal.   Drakes Well - Won a hunter chase over 2m5f here in March 2022 but wasn't able to run for 690 days until he returned in the 2m race at Leicester and his fall was what caused Cooldine Bog to unseat as will be mentioned in the 8.40 race when he and the winner Cap Du Mathan both run. It was a decent effort though on his return and he's got better for 3 more runs in points. He won at Mollington earlier this month over 2m4f and whilst the bare form isn't great he did record a decent speed figure. This was mentioned as a target after the race and Jack Andrews takes over from the trainers son. He wouldn't be top of my list, but a bold showing would not surprise.   Back Bar - Been a frustrating horse over the years although does have a hunter chase win to his name having won a novice event at Leicester in February 2022. Only run in one hunter chase in the last couple of seasons and he was beaten in a poor heat at Fontwell at 6/5. He's had 14 runs in points in that time and has managed to win 3, but he's nearly always near the head of the market and doesn't really convert as many as he should. Obviously he gets the weight he deserves to get, but I still don't think he can win.   Verdict - I think the Cheltenham race is the key piece of form here and with the ground spot on for Solomon Grey I think he looks a cracking e/w bet in this. For me he looks the best handicapped horse in the race and he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. I will also have a saver on Rebel Dawn Rising because he is such a tough horse and he is the main danger for me and hopefully I am right with the Cheltenham form being key.   Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)   8.40 Cap Du Mathan - Was entered in the sales last week, but was withdrawn so still runs for Paul Nicholls. He made his hunter chase debut in March in the 2m race at Leicester and had a fairly comfortable success when he outclassed his rivals. He had pulled up on his two previous starts in handicaps so dropping down to this level worked. He then ran in the Aintree Foxhunters and ran well enough before getting a bit tired late on to finish a 36L 8th. He does have a lot of weight to carry, but has to be one of the possible winners.   Kaproyale - Won this contest last year in good style when he beat Magic Saint. He's only had 3 starts this season. He was a solid 2nd at Hereford in January and then won a point at Charing in March which was decent enough as he isn't the strongest stayer at 3m. Then last month he went back to hunter chases and ran terribly at Kempton where he ended up being a well beaten 5th. That run was too bad to be true so I can forgive him that and he has a chance of keeping his title, but I do think there is more depth to this race than last year.   Fier Jaguen - I was right to take him on at Cheltenham as he didn't win although I didn't find the right one to beat him. His jumping to his right wasn't quite as bad as it usually is that night, but he was running on empty after the last and A Jet Of Our Own managed to run him down. I don't think he's been as good this season as he was last season and the Cheltenham run backed that up although it was still a decent effort. This is a front runners track so he could well make all, but this is not the track where you want to be jumping out to your right given how tight it is and I can see him losing many lengths at the fences.   Calidad - Was stuffed off 86 in a handicap in November and whilst his two 3rds in points this month haven't been too bad it is hard to see him getting involved.   Cat Tiger - I don't think he is quite as good as he was, but I did think he ran very well at Cheltenham last time when finishing a length 2nd to Rebel Dawn Rising. Dare I say it but if you swap the jockey's around I actually think you might have got a different result. It's been a long time since he ran over a trip this short, but he has to go on the shortlist on the back of the Cheltenham effort.   Cooldine Bog - Actually didn't run to bad in the race won by Cap Du Mathan at Leicester in March and was badly hampered at 3 out when he unseated his jockey. His next hunter chase run came at Cheltenham where he made the running for a bit before tailing off and pulling up in the same race as Cat Tiger. He ran in a point on Sunday and was a well beaten 4th, but he didn't stay after leading for a fair way. Dropping back down to this trip will help him, but hard to see how he can lead in front of Fier Jaguen and chances are he wont be good enough.   Mix Of Clover - Well beaten off 104 in a Worcester handicap in September and struggled to get round when he went pointing this year as he unseated the first twice and then ran out. He has completed on his next two starts both over 2m4f where he hasn't looked to stay in what were decent enough races. Clearly the 2m trip is what he needs, but he has been making the running and that is going to be tough for him to do here.   Olly Norse - The 12L 2nd to Deise Aba at Larkhill on New Years Eve was a decent enough effort and he was 2nd again at Garthorpe just over a month later. He didn't run again until the Intermediate Final where he was a well beaten 8th. This will be a very different test and hard to see him being good enough.   Rewritetherules - Was 3rd in this race last year although 17.5L behind Kaproyale. This year he has pulled up in all 4 starts and it is hard to see him even getting close to repeating his 3rd let alone do better.   The Golden Rebel - Was a reasonable handicap chaser for Ben Case during 2021 and 2022, but was off for 492 days before making his debut for current connections in a point over 2m4f last month. Was last that day and hard to make a case for him here.   Missed Tee - Looks set to finally get some decent ground which is beginning to look crucial for her after he runs so far this year. She was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford in the race won by Forest Chimes. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although I don't think it helped her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise there than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. She was keen again at Cheltenham and I can understand why Immy tried to find the better ground on the outside of Fier Jaguen, but you never really want to be the outside of him given how he jumps. She was a 20L 3rd in the end so does have a lot of ground to make up on Fier Jaguen, but with this ground set to suit her much better she might well be able to reverse that form although ideally she will need to settle better in behind horses given how much pace there is going to be.   Verdict - I'm going to take Fier Jaguen on again. If he jumps as badly out to his right as he can do then I think he will do very well to win a race that I think is a bit stronger than the Cheltenham race has been this year and last year. I was tempted to back Cat Tiger because I do love that Cheltenham race as mentioned in the previous contest, but whilst I used to have no issue with backing Maxwell I do think he has gone backwards as a jockey and also I don't think he has ever ridden Stratford well which is backed up by the fact that in 9 rides at the track the best he has managed is one 2nd. Cap Du Mathan has plenty of weight, but he does have a chance. Whilst I do think this race is stronger than last year, course form is crucial at Stratford so I will give Kaproyale a chance to bounce back from a run at Kempton which was too bad to be true. He's the saver bet, but the main bet is Missed Tee e/w. Hopefully with better ground Immy will be able to keep on the right side of Fier Jaguen which she couldn't do at Cheltenham. I know it is a lot of ground to make up on him, but I really do think the better ground will give her the chance to get closer and hopefully actually get past him.   Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

Wouldn't surprise me if some drift back out come race time when my thoughts aren't having much effect on the market.

Cheltenham could hardly have gone any better so it would be nice to repeat the feat tonight at Stratford tonight to end the hunter chase season. Here are my thoughts on the card.
NB prices were taken at around 9am this morning
6.05 Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2) 6.35 Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4) 7.05 Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) 7.35 Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4) 8.05 Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5) 8.40 Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)   6.05  Castle Daragh - Caused a massive shock when winning the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last time and after the race we found that his jockey who works for David Pipe actually trains him on his lunchbreak. That form is untrustworthy for me and the fact the 5th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday backs that theory up. The 2nd Gats And Co was pulled up in a handicap on his next start as well.   Caballo Diablo - Did well to win a 1 runner Restricted at Cocklebarrow on his seasonal return in January. Next start though he pulled up and possibly something was amiss as he didn't run for nearly 2 months. The 2nd to Latenightrumble on Easter Sunday was a fair effort given how he got on at Cheltenham and he then won in the fastest time of the day at Witton Castle. The problem is he ran on Sunday at Kingston Blount and he ran terribly. Hard to back him on the back of that.   Jay Bee Whisky - Showed a bit of promise last season in maidens, but he has really thrived this season as he won 5 on the bounce. He was well backed ahead of easily landing a maiden in November and his restricted success was even easier the following month as he hacked up by 20L. Connections decided to run him in another restricted as you are able to do now under a 5lbs penalty and he was well backed to win again. His next two starts were in a conditions race and a mixed open and he had two very easy wins at long odds on again, both over 2m4f. His first defeat of the season came in his last start on Easter Monday where he was an 8L 2nd to Looksnowtlikebrian. Now that one was just behind Castle Daragh at Chepstow, but I don't think he quite ran up to form that night as it came just 6 days after running in the Lady Dudley Cup. I also wonder if maybe Jay Bee Whiskey wasn't quite at his best in that race because he's had 2 months off since no doubt with this race in mind and he looks to have a leading chance.   Learntalot - Won on the first day of the pointing season at the start of November when going off at 4/6, but he hasn't got his head in front in 4 runs since and one of those he finished 3rd behind Jay Bee Whiskey. He looks to have a bit to find.   Mount Pleasant - Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs under rules for Nicky Henderson in the 21/22 season and whilst he won a maiden point last year he also struggled on occasions. This season he has really improved though and has won 4 of his six starts. He started off with a 5th in January when he ran like he needed the run. He then won 2 restricteds in good style and had Caballo Diabolo behind him in the first of those. He was then 3rd at Higham before winning an intermediate at Parham last month. The time was really slow though which is a bit off putting. He won again at Edgcote a couple of weeks ago although he did make harder work of it then it looked like he was going to do and he had to survive a stewards enquiry. The 2nd did boost the form by winning on Sunday though, but again it was a rather slow time. This race was highlighted after the race so it has clearly been a target and he has a chance.   Padjoes Legacy - Was pulled up behind Mount Pleasant in March, but has improved since then as he beat Well P by 5L at Kimble and then won a match at High Easter. I didn't really give him that much of a chance in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, but he ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd 4.75L behind Iskandar Pecos. He did look a hard ride that night though and he was on and off the bridle which isn't ideal he does that round here. No better jockey to keep him to his work though and if he can repeat that run he's got a superb chance here because that form for me is stronger than the Chepstow form.   Red Nika - Had shown promise under rules in the 20-21 season for Tom Lacey after winning a point maiden in 2019 for his wife and he then wasn't seen for nearly 3 years. He bolted up in a restricted when returning pointing in February, but then was put in her place by Wolf Walker who is a very promising horse despite losing at Cheltenham last time. I thought he had some sort of chance at Chepstow and did run well enough to finish a 3.5L 4th to Castle Daragh. At tonight's weights he actually has the beating of him and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form.   Well P - Has 5L to make up on Padjoes Legacy at Kimble on Easter Saturday when they were 1st and 2nd. He has won both his starts since though and bolted up by 15L at Edgcote last time in a time nearly 20 seconds quicker than Mount Pleasant's race although the final circuit sectional of the latter's race was slightly quicker. His first win this month was his trainers first win in 9 years!   Verdict - I don't think it is the easiest race to call and whilst I think Red Nika can reverse Chepstow form with Castle Daragh, I am happy to take them both on and hope I am right again about that form being weak. Mount Pleasant has done well this season, but it does worry me that his last two wins have been in slow races. Well P wouldn't be a surprise winner, but he does have ground to make up on Padjoes Legacy and I make him one of the bets. Yes I am slightly concerned about how he travelled at Cheltenham, but I thought it was a superb effort to finish 3rd and its the strongest form in the race for me. The other one to back is Jay Bee Whiskey who has looked very promising this season. Yes the 2nd last time wasn't quite as good, but he's been freshened up since then and that should see him bounce back to form.   Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)   6.35 Famous Clermont - Can't say I expected him to turn up in this race, but I guess he's had a limited season and this is really the only suitable race on the card for him so he may as well run. He hasn't got anywhere near the heights he reached last season in his 4 runs so far and I would have taken him on had he run at Aintree again. I do think Punchestown though showed promise as he did go quite far clear with Samcro at one stage and was clearly doing a bit too much. It was no surprise he got tired and after he made terrible mistake at the last where he basically stopped to a walk he was pretty much allowed to walk the rest of the way. This is a weaker contest and dropping down in trip round a tight track is going to be a more suitable test for him. This statement is no slight on Izzie who has just won the pointing ladies title, but we know Famous Clermont is a tricky ride and he takes a lot of knowing. Izzie is going to be at her best on him.   Shantou Flyer - Has had another fantastic season at the age of 14 and his 6th at Cheltenham was another cracking effort in the race. Since then he has finished 2nd to Master Templer, he then ran out on Olive as Stafford Cross which was a bizarre one as he's never looked like doing something like that before. After that he has had a couple of easy successes earlier this month. He won this race last year under a very good ride from Olive who made full use of his stamina round a trip and track which weren't certain to suit. Two things this time around though. First of all there was nothing as good as Famous Clermont in the race and secondly he has clearly regressed a little which is no surprise at his age.   Captain Biggles - Just won the restricted race on this card last year so we know he handles course and distance, but that race didn't contain anything like the quality of the other two. He's done well enough this season having won first time out and then finished 2nd in 3 points although he was beaten at 4/9 last time. He did also run in the Walrus at Haydock in February but not surprisingly got bogged down in the mud. He would need both the front two to run below par to win this.   Imperial Esprit - Was 15L behind Yccs Portocervo when 4th at Kempton, but has won 2 points since in good style. Would still be a surprise winner for me.   Shang Tang - He's had a solid enough season on his first term for his new connections having won a couple of points. The 2nd at Ludlow to Captain Tommy wasn't a bad effort either and he was in contention when unseating at the same venue in March. He found himself outpaced last time at Eyton over 2m4f though and I suspect despite the small field we could see a fast pace here and that might get him out of his comfort zone as well.   Verdict - Captain Biggles isn't completely out of this, but I suspect it will be between the top two in the betting. I do think Famous Clermont is the most likely winner, but quite frankly in my view his price stinks. He has enough doubts about his chance that he shouldn't be an odds on shot and I reckon Shantou Flyer is going to attempt to make it a test of stamina again if he can. He is the value in the race for me as I don't think he should be such a big difference in the betting between the two and you can almost be certain he will give his running whereas you can't be with Famous Clermont based on this season.   Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)   7.05 Forest Chimes - On the face of it he was a little lucky to win on his hunter chase debut at Stratford in March as the 2nd Grand Roi made a mistake at the last and lost more ground than he was beaten by, but Grand Roi is a thinker and I don't think he would have gone past whatever. Since he lost his maiden tag he has been a winning machine in points having won 6 of his 10 starts since April 2022. After the Stratford win he went to Chaddesley Corbett and got beaten although I don't think the jockey change would have helped. Darren Andrews was back on when he won earlier this month at Eyton and it was a very easy success over 2m4f. I think he's useful, but you do have to wonder about him over this far given how good he has looked over shorter this season.   Go Go Geronimo - Not the first time he has run in this race as he was beaten 0.75L by Ask D'man in 2022. His only other hunter chase start came in the big on at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. He run 5 times this season although one of those races ended up having to be stopped and voided. He finished 2nd 3 times and then managed to win last time, but he doesn't really look in the form where you think he is going to go and be capable of beating Iskandar Pecos. What he does have in his favour is he will make the running and that is never a bad thing round here although in this small field he could have competition for that role.   Iskandar Pecos - One of our winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and an astonishing price as well as he went off 3/1 in the end. It was another top effort and he has done nothing but improve all season. He obviously is the one they have to beat, but one note of caution is that he wouldn't be the first winner of the Intermediate Final to then disappoint in this race. Harbour Court was the last horse to do the double in 2013.   King Orry - To be fair his 3rd at Newton Abbot last week was much better than I thought he would go and no surprise the handicapper put him up from 64 to 87. Clearly his form isn't good enough to win this though.   Master Templar - Has proven himself to be a real stayer this season and I thought his 2nd to Gaboriot at Cheltenham over 4m was a new personal best. He was keen on that occasion and helped set quite a strong pace given the conditions and yet he still stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. That form was boosted at Cartmel on Wednesday night and his previous start saw him beat Shantou Flyer so that form might get a boost earlier on the card. I guess the big issue is how much that Cheltenham race has taken out of him, but it was only his 4th race this season so you would hope he'd be fine. Could be rivals for the lead again, but on paper he is better than those two rivals and we know he will keep going out in front so this track could be ideal for him.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase that she was 2nd in prior to joining Bradley Gibbs and on the face of it she has a bit to find with some of these. She mainly front ran in Ireland so might well be another to help make the running.   Verdict - We have a small field yet again for this race which is a shame, but despite that it does look like there will be plenty of pace on and that should suit Iskandar Pecos who can sit just off the pace and hopefully pick them off let on. I do think Master Templar will be a big danger and there isn't a huge amount of juice in Iskandar Pecos' price, but there is enough there to get involved.   Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)   7.35 Annamix - Great to see an Irish challenger in the big race and he is one that has a serious chance as well. He was entered at Punchestown and Downpatrick, but he's skipped both those and I wonder if this was a target after his really good 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He might have finished closer as well as a loose horse got in his way on the run-in. It was no surprise that he ran like he needed further because I think 2m5f is short of ideal for him. He's jumped much better than he did last season when even when winning at Fairyhouse he made plenty of mistakes. I think he will go very close.   D'Jango - Written plenty of times this season how big a fan I've been of him this term and how well his new trainer has done to improve him no end. The 4th at The Festival was a top effort and then he disappointed behind Master Templar in a point. No surprise to see him stay on so strongly even over 4m in the mud at Cheltenham last time and it was a return to form when he was 3rd to Gaboriot. I'd love to see him run well again, but I do wonder if Stratford is quite the track that will see him at his best and even a repeat of his Cheltenham effort probably wouldn't be good enough to win this.   Fairly Famous - Proved at Cheltenham why he had been sent off as 11/10 favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby back in February where he hated the ground. I thought it was a really good performance to tough it out against Premier Magic, who himself was putting in an improved performance. The better ground here is going to be perfect for him and he is one of the leading contenders.   Go On Chez - Has had 2 very easy victories in hunter chases the last couple of months at Ludlow and Kelso. This race does make sense for him to run in and I think he will stay. The ground is vital for him though and he needs it as quick as possible. I also just wonder if he's quite up to this level, but he's had a light campaign and that might end up being crucial so he's a possible winner.   Law Of Gold - Has a great record at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup and then this race the following year before the year after that finishing 2nd to Vaucelet. I didn't back him any of those times, but did really fancy him for last year's race and he duly ran one of his worst ever races. He also ran one of his worse ever races last time at Cheltenham where the ground totally went against him and he pulled up in the 4m race which he had won the year before. The ground should be fine tonight and clearly he can be forgiven his Cheltenham run and the run in this last year. He's not top of my list, but if he did get his title back it would not surprise.   Lift Me Up - Looked impressive at Newbury on his hunter chase debut last March, but then didn't back it up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. His Kimble win on Easter Saturday was impressive, but that was over 2m4f and to me he didn't stay at Cheltenham when a well beaten 3rd behind Fairy Famous and Premier Magic. The better ground will help, but then he also has further to travel so I can't see the Horner's having a big race winner.   Premier Magic - As mentioned above I thought it was a real return to form at Cheltenham last time after a couple of meaningless point wins and a poor performance at The Festival this season. The better ground is probably in his favour, but then it is also in Fairly Famous' favour as well and I don't really see how he can reverse the form.   What A Glance - Another one of the winners I put up at Cheltenham and what a win it was as well as he cruised into contention and only had to be pushed out to beat Yippee Ki Yay by 11L. That's strong form as he's a progressive horse himself and won at Kelso on Sunday. The handicapper put him up from 96 to 124 which is fully justified. I think the 2 2nds to Deise Aba were good efforts and the one here over 2m6f looked like he was tapped for toe over the trip. I'd love to see him run well, but my head says he probably wont be quite up to this level.   Verdict - What a race we have for the big one this year as I don't think any of them would be a total surprise if they won, even Lift Me Up has a good level of ability and I don't think there are any total no hopers. The two that I think have the biggest chance though are Fairly Famous and Annamix. I'm going to cover them both, but bigger preference is just for Annamix. The Aintree 3rd is the best piece of form in the race and he looks like he has been saved for this. Fairly Famous was so tough at Cheltenham last time and with this better ground set to suit I don't see how Premier Magic can reverse the form. I might regret not going in again on What A Glance given how impressive he was at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two and I have the same view on Go On Chez. Law Of Gold could be very dangerous though as you can forget his run in this last year and at Cheltenham last time and we know he loves the track.   Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)   8.05 Rebel Dawn Rising - Really gutsy effort to win at Cheltenham last time beating Cat Tiger by a length and the handicapper has kept him on 129 which is handy when it comes to this race. I don't think the testing ground would have been ideal that night and so the better ground should help here. This is the perfect trip for him and Dale's 3lbs will come in handy given he has joint top weight.   Stratagem - Did well hunter chasing in 2022 although he probably should have done even better and he was only 4th behind Solomon Grey at Cheltenham. This year he has been given a shocking campaign. I have no idea whose idea it has been to run him in the Southwell and Hexham races this season, but they were 2 races he shouldn't have run in. He doesn't really stay 3m and he hates heavy ground so first up they run him on soft ground over 3m at Southwell and no surprise he didn't see it out especially given how long he'd been off the track for. Next up they sent him to one of the stiffest tracks in the country on worst ground over 3m again. He duly finished 139L behind Jerrysback. Maybe getting his handicap mark down for this race was the plan, but I doubt it. This race should be much more suitable, but he has 12-9 to carry with David unable to claim so whilst I am expecting a better performance he wont be carrying my money.   Envious Editor - Was another horse that Joe O'Shea had massively improved back in 2022 and the start of 2023. When he won at Taunton last January he looked like he would go on to even better things, but he then ran terribly at Hereford and was put in his place by Famous Clermont at Haydock. I'm not sure why, but he left Joe's after that and whilst the 3rds at Ludlow and Cheltenham were OK they were more signs he wasn't in the same form. He was then stuffed in Ladies race on this card last year. Another new trainer this season and he only reappeared at Hexham's point track 2 weeks ago. Good effort to win after such a long time off, but I don't think it was a strong race and whilst in theory he is well handicapped I prefer others in the race.   Solomon Grey - Has run at this meeting the last 2 years, but he was never going to stay in the Horse & Hound a couple of years ago and whilst he ran well enough behind Shantou Flyer in the Ladies race last year he was always going to struggle to keep up with the speed he went round here. For me this is the race for him. He's been 3rd in all 3 starts far this season, but he always needs his first run of the season and there was 77 days between that and his course and distance 3rd behind Deise Aba and What A Glance. That's strong form for me and I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham behind Rebel Dawn Rising and Cat Tiger on ground he would have hated. He is going to get his ground tonight. At Cheltenham Solomon Grey carried 5lbs less, but here he is going to carry a stone less and there will be more improvement to come on the ground. I think he has a huge chance.   Peacocks Secret - Has run in this race the last 2 years. He was a well beaten 3rd in 2022 and then last year he was beaten 2L by Sixteen Letters when giving him 5lbs and this year he will get 5lbs because of his jockey's claim. Not sure he's been in the best of form this season though as even his win over Back Bar isn't great and then last time he was beaten at 1/2. In theory Back Bar should reverse the form at these weights as well. Think its clear his trainer thinks Rebel Dawn Rising has the better chance.   Sixteen Letters - Looked like he was going to be the best handicapped horse in the race last year and he was duly very well backed to win off a mark of 110. He's not run under rules since so just has the 3lbs rise to cope with. No doubt this has been the target, but I'm just not sure he is in as good form as he was this time last year. He was well beaten in his first couple of races of the season, but they were strong heats. He then had a couple of very easy tasks at ¼ before finishing twice. The first of which was still a decent a effort, but not sure the second of them was a great run. He then went to Peper Harrow a couple of weeks ago and won a weak 3 runner race. I think the other thing to consider was last year's renewal of this was pretty weak and I think this is a stronger renewal.   Drakes Well - Won a hunter chase over 2m5f here in March 2022 but wasn't able to run for 690 days until he returned in the 2m race at Leicester and his fall was what caused Cooldine Bog to unseat as will be mentioned in the 8.40 race when he and the winner Cap Du Mathan both run. It was a decent effort though on his return and he's got better for 3 more runs in points. He won at Mollington earlier this month over 2m4f and whilst the bare form isn't great he did record a decent speed figure. This was mentioned as a target after the race and Jack Andrews takes over from the trainers son. He wouldn't be top of my list, but a bold showing would not surprise.   Back Bar - Been a frustrating horse over the years although does have a hunter chase win to his name having won a novice event at Leicester in February 2022. Only run in one hunter chase in the last couple of seasons and he was beaten in a poor heat at Fontwell at 6/5. He's had 14 runs in points in that time and has managed to win 3, but he's nearly always near the head of the market and doesn't really convert as many as he should. Obviously he gets the weight he deserves to get, but I still don't think he can win.   Verdict - I think the Cheltenham race is the key piece of form here and with the ground spot on for Solomon Grey I think he looks a cracking e/w bet in this. For me he looks the best handicapped horse in the race and he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. I will also have a saver on Rebel Dawn Rising because he is such a tough horse and he is the main danger for me and hopefully I am right with the Cheltenham form being key.   Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)   8.40 Cap Du Mathan - Was entered in the sales last week, but was withdrawn so still runs for Paul Nicholls. He made his hunter chase debut in March in the 2m race at Leicester and had a fairly comfortable success when he outclassed his rivals. He had pulled up on his two previous starts in handicaps so dropping down to this level worked. He then ran in the Aintree Foxhunters and ran well enough before getting a bit tired late on to finish a 36L 8th. He does have a lot of weight to carry, but has to be one of the possible winners.   Kaproyale - Won this contest last year in good style when he beat Magic Saint. He's only had 3 starts this season. He was a solid 2nd at Hereford in January and then won a point at Charing in March which was decent enough as he isn't the strongest stayer at 3m. Then last month he went back to hunter chases and ran terribly at Kempton where he ended up being a well beaten 5th. That run was too bad to be true so I can forgive him that and he has a chance of keeping his title, but I do think there is more depth to this race than last year.   Fier Jaguen - I was right to take him on at Cheltenham as he didn't win although I didn't find the right one to beat him. His jumping to his right wasn't quite as bad as it usually is that night, but he was running on empty after the last and A Jet Of Our Own managed to run him down. I don't think he's been as good this season as he was last season and the Cheltenham run backed that up although it was still a decent effort. This is a front runners track so he could well make all, but this is not the track where you want to be jumping out to your right given how tight it is and I can see him losing many lengths at the fences.   Calidad - Was stuffed off 86 in a handicap in November and whilst his two 3rds in points this month haven't been too bad it is hard to see him getting involved.   Cat Tiger - I don't think he is quite as good as he was, but I did think he ran very well at Cheltenham last time when finishing a length 2nd to Rebel Dawn Rising. Dare I say it but if you swap the jockey's around I actually think you might have got a different result. It's been a long time since he ran over a trip this short, but he has to go on the shortlist on the back of the Cheltenham effort.   Cooldine Bog - Actually didn't run to bad in the race won by Cap Du Mathan at Leicester in March and was badly hampered at 3 out when he unseated his jockey. His next hunter chase run came at Cheltenham where he made the running for a bit before tailing off and pulling up in the same race as Cat Tiger. He ran in a point on Sunday and was a well beaten 4th, but he didn't stay after leading for a fair way. Dropping back down to this trip will help him, but hard to see how he can lead in front of Fier Jaguen and chances are he wont be good enough.   Mix Of Clover - Well beaten off 104 in a Worcester handicap in September and struggled to get round when he went pointing this year as he unseated the first twice and then ran out. He has completed on his next two starts both over 2m4f where he hasn't looked to stay in what were decent enough races. Clearly the 2m trip is what he needs, but he has been making the running and that is going to be tough for him to do here.   Olly Norse - The 12L 2nd to Deise Aba at Larkhill on New Years Eve was a decent enough effort and he was 2nd again at Garthorpe just over a month later. He didn't run again until the Intermediate Final where he was a well beaten 8th. This will be a very different test and hard to see him being good enough.   Rewritetherules - Was 3rd in this race last year although 17.5L behind Kaproyale. This year he has pulled up in all 4 starts and it is hard to see him even getting close to repeating his 3rd let alone do better.   The Golden Rebel - Was a reasonable handicap chaser for Ben Case during 2021 and 2022, but was off for 492 days before making his debut for current connections in a point over 2m4f last month. Was last that day and hard to make a case for him here.   Missed Tee - Looks set to finally get some decent ground which is beginning to look crucial for her after he runs so far this year. She was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford in the race won by Forest Chimes. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although I don't think it helped her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise there than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. She was keen again at Cheltenham and I can understand why Immy tried to find the better ground on the outside of Fier Jaguen, but you never really want to be the outside of him given how he jumps. She was a 20L 3rd in the end so does have a lot of ground to make up on Fier Jaguen, but with this ground set to suit her much better she might well be able to reverse that form although ideally she will need to settle better in behind horses given how much pace there is going to be.   Verdict - I'm going to take Fier Jaguen on again. If he jumps as badly out to his right as he can do then I think he will do very well to win a race that I think is a bit stronger than the Cheltenham race has been this year and last year. I was tempted to back Cat Tiger because I do love that Cheltenham race as mentioned in the previous contest, but whilst I used to have no issue with backing Maxwell I do think he has gone backwards as a jockey and also I don't think he has ever ridden Stratford well which is backed up by the fact that in 9 rides at the track the best he has managed is one 2nd. Cap Du Mathan has plenty of weight, but he does have a chance. Whilst I do think this race is stronger than last year, course form is crucial at Stratford so I will give Kaproyale a chance to bounce back from a run at Kempton which was too bad to be true. He's the saver bet, but the main bet is Missed Tee e/w. Hopefully with better ground Immy will be able to keep on the right side of Fier Jaguen which she couldn't do at Cheltenham. I know it is a lot of ground to make up on him, but I really do think the better ground will give her the chance to get closer and hopefully actually get past him.   Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

As always fantastic analysis. The bookies obviously take interest, only 1 horse now available at the 9am odds.

marvellous  input 👏

Cheltenham could hardly have gone any better so it would be nice to repeat the feat tonight at Stratford tonight to end the hunter chase season. Here are my thoughts on the card.
NB prices were taken at around 9am this morning
6.05 Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2) 6.35 Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4) 7.05 Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) 7.35 Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4) 8.05 Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5) 8.40 Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)   6.05  Castle Daragh - Caused a massive shock when winning the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last time and after the race we found that his jockey who works for David Pipe actually trains him on his lunchbreak. That form is untrustworthy for me and the fact the 5th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday backs that theory up. The 2nd Gats And Co was pulled up in a handicap on his next start as well.   Caballo Diablo - Did well to win a 1 runner Restricted at Cocklebarrow on his seasonal return in January. Next start though he pulled up and possibly something was amiss as he didn't run for nearly 2 months. The 2nd to Latenightrumble on Easter Sunday was a fair effort given how he got on at Cheltenham and he then won in the fastest time of the day at Witton Castle. The problem is he ran on Sunday at Kingston Blount and he ran terribly. Hard to back him on the back of that.   Jay Bee Whisky - Showed a bit of promise last season in maidens, but he has really thrived this season as he won 5 on the bounce. He was well backed ahead of easily landing a maiden in November and his restricted success was even easier the following month as he hacked up by 20L. Connections decided to run him in another restricted as you are able to do now under a 5lbs penalty and he was well backed to win again. His next two starts were in a conditions race and a mixed open and he had two very easy wins at long odds on again, both over 2m4f. His first defeat of the season came in his last start on Easter Monday where he was an 8L 2nd to Looksnowtlikebrian. Now that one was just behind Castle Daragh at Chepstow, but I don't think he quite ran up to form that night as it came just 6 days after running in the Lady Dudley Cup. I also wonder if maybe Jay Bee Whiskey wasn't quite at his best in that race because he's had 2 months off since no doubt with this race in mind and he looks to have a leading chance.   Learntalot - Won on the first day of the pointing season at the start of November when going off at 4/6, but he hasn't got his head in front in 4 runs since and one of those he finished 3rd behind Jay Bee Whiskey. He looks to have a bit to find.   Mount Pleasant - Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs under rules for Nicky Henderson in the 21/22 season and whilst he won a maiden point last year he also struggled on occasions. This season he has really improved though and has won 4 of his six starts. He started off with a 5th in January when he ran like he needed the run. He then won 2 restricteds in good style and had Caballo Diabolo behind him in the first of those. He was then 3rd at Higham before winning an intermediate at Parham last month. The time was really slow though which is a bit off putting. He won again at Edgcote a couple of weeks ago although he did make harder work of it then it looked like he was going to do and he had to survive a stewards enquiry. The 2nd did boost the form by winning on Sunday though, but again it was a rather slow time. This race was highlighted after the race so it has clearly been a target and he has a chance.   Padjoes Legacy - Was pulled up behind Mount Pleasant in March, but has improved since then as he beat Well P by 5L at Kimble and then won a match at High Easter. I didn't really give him that much of a chance in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, but he ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd 4.75L behind Iskandar Pecos. He did look a hard ride that night though and he was on and off the bridle which isn't ideal he does that round here. No better jockey to keep him to his work though and if he can repeat that run he's got a superb chance here because that form for me is stronger than the Chepstow form.   Red Nika - Had shown promise under rules in the 20-21 season for Tom Lacey after winning a point maiden in 2019 for his wife and he then wasn't seen for nearly 3 years. He bolted up in a restricted when returning pointing in February, but then was put in her place by Wolf Walker who is a very promising horse despite losing at Cheltenham last time. I thought he had some sort of chance at Chepstow and did run well enough to finish a 3.5L 4th to Castle Daragh. At tonight's weights he actually has the beating of him and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form.   Well P - Has 5L to make up on Padjoes Legacy at Kimble on Easter Saturday when they were 1st and 2nd. He has won both his starts since though and bolted up by 15L at Edgcote last time in a time nearly 20 seconds quicker than Mount Pleasant's race although the final circuit sectional of the latter's race was slightly quicker. His first win this month was his trainers first win in 9 years!   Verdict - I don't think it is the easiest race to call and whilst I think Red Nika can reverse Chepstow form with Castle Daragh, I am happy to take them both on and hope I am right again about that form being weak. Mount Pleasant has done well this season, but it does worry me that his last two wins have been in slow races. Well P wouldn't be a surprise winner, but he does have ground to make up on Padjoes Legacy and I make him one of the bets. Yes I am slightly concerned about how he travelled at Cheltenham, but I thought it was a superb effort to finish 3rd and its the strongest form in the race for me. The other one to back is Jay Bee Whiskey who has looked very promising this season. Yes the 2nd last time wasn't quite as good, but he's been freshened up since then and that should see him bounce back to form.   Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)   6.35 Famous Clermont - Can't say I expected him to turn up in this race, but I guess he's had a limited season and this is really the only suitable race on the card for him so he may as well run. He hasn't got anywhere near the heights he reached last season in his 4 runs so far and I would have taken him on had he run at Aintree again. I do think Punchestown though showed promise as he did go quite far clear with Samcro at one stage and was clearly doing a bit too much. It was no surprise he got tired and after he made terrible mistake at the last where he basically stopped to a walk he was pretty much allowed to walk the rest of the way. This is a weaker contest and dropping down in trip round a tight track is going to be a more suitable test for him. This statement is no slight on Izzie who has just won the pointing ladies title, but we know Famous Clermont is a tricky ride and he takes a lot of knowing. Izzie is going to be at her best on him.   Shantou Flyer - Has had another fantastic season at the age of 14 and his 6th at Cheltenham was another cracking effort in the race. Since then he has finished 2nd to Master Templer, he then ran out on Olive as Stafford Cross which was a bizarre one as he's never looked like doing something like that before. After that he has had a couple of easy successes earlier this month. He won this race last year under a very good ride from Olive who made full use of his stamina round a trip and track which weren't certain to suit. Two things this time around though. First of all there was nothing as good as Famous Clermont in the race and secondly he has clearly regressed a little which is no surprise at his age.   Captain Biggles - Just won the restricted race on this card last year so we know he handles course and distance, but that race didn't contain anything like the quality of the other two. He's done well enough this season having won first time out and then finished 2nd in 3 points although he was beaten at 4/9 last time. He did also run in the Walrus at Haydock in February but not surprisingly got bogged down in the mud. He would need both the front two to run below par to win this.   Imperial Esprit - Was 15L behind Yccs Portocervo when 4th at Kempton, but has won 2 points since in good style. Would still be a surprise winner for me.   Shang Tang - He's had a solid enough season on his first term for his new connections having won a couple of points. The 2nd at Ludlow to Captain Tommy wasn't a bad effort either and he was in contention when unseating at the same venue in March. He found himself outpaced last time at Eyton over 2m4f though and I suspect despite the small field we could see a fast pace here and that might get him out of his comfort zone as well.   Verdict - Captain Biggles isn't completely out of this, but I suspect it will be between the top two in the betting. I do think Famous Clermont is the most likely winner, but quite frankly in my view his price stinks. He has enough doubts about his chance that he shouldn't be an odds on shot and I reckon Shantou Flyer is going to attempt to make it a test of stamina again if he can. He is the value in the race for me as I don't think he should be such a big difference in the betting between the two and you can almost be certain he will give his running whereas you can't be with Famous Clermont based on this season.   Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)   7.05 Forest Chimes - On the face of it he was a little lucky to win on his hunter chase debut at Stratford in March as the 2nd Grand Roi made a mistake at the last and lost more ground than he was beaten by, but Grand Roi is a thinker and I don't think he would have gone past whatever. Since he lost his maiden tag he has been a winning machine in points having won 6 of his 10 starts since April 2022. After the Stratford win he went to Chaddesley Corbett and got beaten although I don't think the jockey change would have helped. Darren Andrews was back on when he won earlier this month at Eyton and it was a very easy success over 2m4f. I think he's useful, but you do have to wonder about him over this far given how good he has looked over shorter this season.   Go Go Geronimo - Not the first time he has run in this race as he was beaten 0.75L by Ask D'man in 2022. His only other hunter chase start came in the big on at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. He run 5 times this season although one of those races ended up having to be stopped and voided. He finished 2nd 3 times and then managed to win last time, but he doesn't really look in the form where you think he is going to go and be capable of beating Iskandar Pecos. What he does have in his favour is he will make the running and that is never a bad thing round here although in this small field he could have competition for that role.   Iskandar Pecos - One of our winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and an astonishing price as well as he went off 3/1 in the end. It was another top effort and he has done nothing but improve all season. He obviously is the one they have to beat, but one note of caution is that he wouldn't be the first winner of the Intermediate Final to then disappoint in this race. Harbour Court was the last horse to do the double in 2013.   King Orry - To be fair his 3rd at Newton Abbot last week was much better than I thought he would go and no surprise the handicapper put him up from 64 to 87. Clearly his form isn't good enough to win this though.   Master Templar - Has proven himself to be a real stayer this season and I thought his 2nd to Gaboriot at Cheltenham over 4m was a new personal best. He was keen on that occasion and helped set quite a strong pace given the conditions and yet he still stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. That form was boosted at Cartmel on Wednesday night and his previous start saw him beat Shantou Flyer so that form might get a boost earlier on the card. I guess the big issue is how much that Cheltenham race has taken out of him, but it was only his 4th race this season so you would hope he'd be fine. Could be rivals for the lead again, but on paper he is better than those two rivals and we know he will keep going out in front so this track could be ideal for him.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase that she was 2nd in prior to joining Bradley Gibbs and on the face of it she has a bit to find with some of these. She mainly front ran in Ireland so might well be another to help make the running.   Verdict - We have a small field yet again for this race which is a shame, but despite that it does look like there will be plenty of pace on and that should suit Iskandar Pecos who can sit just off the pace and hopefully pick them off let on. I do think Master Templar will be a big danger and there isn't a huge amount of juice in Iskandar Pecos' price, but there is enough there to get involved.   Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)   7.35 Annamix - Great to see an Irish challenger in the big race and he is one that has a serious chance as well. He was entered at Punchestown and Downpatrick, but he's skipped both those and I wonder if this was a target after his really good 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He might have finished closer as well as a loose horse got in his way on the run-in. It was no surprise that he ran like he needed further because I think 2m5f is short of ideal for him. He's jumped much better than he did last season when even when winning at Fairyhouse he made plenty of mistakes. I think he will go very close.   D'Jango - Written plenty of times this season how big a fan I've been of him this term and how well his new trainer has done to improve him no end. The 4th at The Festival was a top effort and then he disappointed behind Master Templar in a point. No surprise to see him stay on so strongly even over 4m in the mud at Cheltenham last time and it was a return to form when he was 3rd to Gaboriot. I'd love to see him run well again, but I do wonder if Stratford is quite the track that will see him at his best and even a repeat of his Cheltenham effort probably wouldn't be good enough to win this.   Fairly Famous - Proved at Cheltenham why he had been sent off as 11/10 favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby back in February where he hated the ground. I thought it was a really good performance to tough it out against Premier Magic, who himself was putting in an improved performance. The better ground here is going to be perfect for him and he is one of the leading contenders.   Go On Chez - Has had 2 very easy victories in hunter chases the last couple of months at Ludlow and Kelso. This race does make sense for him to run in and I think he will stay. The ground is vital for him though and he needs it as quick as possible. I also just wonder if he's quite up to this level, but he's had a light campaign and that might end up being crucial so he's a possible winner.   Law Of Gold - Has a great record at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup and then this race the following year before the year after that finishing 2nd to Vaucelet. I didn't back him any of those times, but did really fancy him for last year's race and he duly ran one of his worst ever races. He also ran one of his worse ever races last time at Cheltenham where the ground totally went against him and he pulled up in the 4m race which he had won the year before. The ground should be fine tonight and clearly he can be forgiven his Cheltenham run and the run in this last year. He's not top of my list, but if he did get his title back it would not surprise.   Lift Me Up - Looked impressive at Newbury on his hunter chase debut last March, but then didn't back it up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. His Kimble win on Easter Saturday was impressive, but that was over 2m4f and to me he didn't stay at Cheltenham when a well beaten 3rd behind Fairy Famous and Premier Magic. The better ground will help, but then he also has further to travel so I can't see the Horner's having a big race winner.   Premier Magic - As mentioned above I thought it was a real return to form at Cheltenham last time after a couple of meaningless point wins and a poor performance at The Festival this season. The better ground is probably in his favour, but then it is also in Fairly Famous' favour as well and I don't really see how he can reverse the form.   What A Glance - Another one of the winners I put up at Cheltenham and what a win it was as well as he cruised into contention and only had to be pushed out to beat Yippee Ki Yay by 11L. That's strong form as he's a progressive horse himself and won at Kelso on Sunday. The handicapper put him up from 96 to 124 which is fully justified. I think the 2 2nds to Deise Aba were good efforts and the one here over 2m6f looked like he was tapped for toe over the trip. I'd love to see him run well, but my head says he probably wont be quite up to this level.   Verdict - What a race we have for the big one this year as I don't think any of them would be a total surprise if they won, even Lift Me Up has a good level of ability and I don't think there are any total no hopers. The two that I think have the biggest chance though are Fairly Famous and Annamix. I'm going to cover them both, but bigger preference is just for Annamix. The Aintree 3rd is the best piece of form in the race and he looks like he has been saved for this. Fairly Famous was so tough at Cheltenham last time and with this better ground set to suit I don't see how Premier Magic can reverse the form. I might regret not going in again on What A Glance given how impressive he was at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two and I have the same view on Go On Chez. Law Of Gold could be very dangerous though as you can forget his run in this last year and at Cheltenham last time and we know he loves the track.   Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)   8.05 Rebel Dawn Rising - Really gutsy effort to win at Cheltenham last time beating Cat Tiger by a length and the handicapper has kept him on 129 which is handy when it comes to this race. I don't think the testing ground would have been ideal that night and so the better ground should help here. This is the perfect trip for him and Dale's 3lbs will come in handy given he has joint top weight.   Stratagem - Did well hunter chasing in 2022 although he probably should have done even better and he was only 4th behind Solomon Grey at Cheltenham. This year he has been given a shocking campaign. I have no idea whose idea it has been to run him in the Southwell and Hexham races this season, but they were 2 races he shouldn't have run in. He doesn't really stay 3m and he hates heavy ground so first up they run him on soft ground over 3m at Southwell and no surprise he didn't see it out especially given how long he'd been off the track for. Next up they sent him to one of the stiffest tracks in the country on worst ground over 3m again. He duly finished 139L behind Jerrysback. Maybe getting his handicap mark down for this race was the plan, but I doubt it. This race should be much more suitable, but he has 12-9 to carry with David unable to claim so whilst I am expecting a better performance he wont be carrying my money.   Envious Editor - Was another horse that Joe O'Shea had massively improved back in 2022 and the start of 2023. When he won at Taunton last January he looked like he would go on to even better things, but he then ran terribly at Hereford and was put in his place by Famous Clermont at Haydock. I'm not sure why, but he left Joe's after that and whilst the 3rds at Ludlow and Cheltenham were OK they were more signs he wasn't in the same form. He was then stuffed in Ladies race on this card last year. Another new trainer this season and he only reappeared at Hexham's point track 2 weeks ago. Good effort to win after such a long time off, but I don't think it was a strong race and whilst in theory he is well handicapped I prefer others in the race.   Solomon Grey - Has run at this meeting the last 2 years, but he was never going to stay in the Horse & Hound a couple of years ago and whilst he ran well enough behind Shantou Flyer in the Ladies race last year he was always going to struggle to keep up with the speed he went round here. For me this is the race for him. He's been 3rd in all 3 starts far this season, but he always needs his first run of the season and there was 77 days between that and his course and distance 3rd behind Deise Aba and What A Glance. That's strong form for me and I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham behind Rebel Dawn Rising and Cat Tiger on ground he would have hated. He is going to get his ground tonight. At Cheltenham Solomon Grey carried 5lbs less, but here he is going to carry a stone less and there will be more improvement to come on the ground. I think he has a huge chance.   Peacocks Secret - Has run in this race the last 2 years. He was a well beaten 3rd in 2022 and then last year he was beaten 2L by Sixteen Letters when giving him 5lbs and this year he will get 5lbs because of his jockey's claim. Not sure he's been in the best of form this season though as even his win over Back Bar isn't great and then last time he was beaten at 1/2. In theory Back Bar should reverse the form at these weights as well. Think its clear his trainer thinks Rebel Dawn Rising has the better chance.   Sixteen Letters - Looked like he was going to be the best handicapped horse in the race last year and he was duly very well backed to win off a mark of 110. He's not run under rules since so just has the 3lbs rise to cope with. No doubt this has been the target, but I'm just not sure he is in as good form as he was this time last year. He was well beaten in his first couple of races of the season, but they were strong heats. He then had a couple of very easy tasks at ¼ before finishing twice. The first of which was still a decent a effort, but not sure the second of them was a great run. He then went to Peper Harrow a couple of weeks ago and won a weak 3 runner race. I think the other thing to consider was last year's renewal of this was pretty weak and I think this is a stronger renewal.   Drakes Well - Won a hunter chase over 2m5f here in March 2022 but wasn't able to run for 690 days until he returned in the 2m race at Leicester and his fall was what caused Cooldine Bog to unseat as will be mentioned in the 8.40 race when he and the winner Cap Du Mathan both run. It was a decent effort though on his return and he's got better for 3 more runs in points. He won at Mollington earlier this month over 2m4f and whilst the bare form isn't great he did record a decent speed figure. This was mentioned as a target after the race and Jack Andrews takes over from the trainers son. He wouldn't be top of my list, but a bold showing would not surprise.   Back Bar - Been a frustrating horse over the years although does have a hunter chase win to his name having won a novice event at Leicester in February 2022. Only run in one hunter chase in the last couple of seasons and he was beaten in a poor heat at Fontwell at 6/5. He's had 14 runs in points in that time and has managed to win 3, but he's nearly always near the head of the market and doesn't really convert as many as he should. Obviously he gets the weight he deserves to get, but I still don't think he can win.   Verdict - I think the Cheltenham race is the key piece of form here and with the ground spot on for Solomon Grey I think he looks a cracking e/w bet in this. For me he looks the best handicapped horse in the race and he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. I will also have a saver on Rebel Dawn Rising because he is such a tough horse and he is the main danger for me and hopefully I am right with the Cheltenham form being key.   Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)   8.40 Cap Du Mathan - Was entered in the sales last week, but was withdrawn so still runs for Paul Nicholls. He made his hunter chase debut in March in the 2m race at Leicester and had a fairly comfortable success when he outclassed his rivals. He had pulled up on his two previous starts in handicaps so dropping down to this level worked. He then ran in the Aintree Foxhunters and ran well enough before getting a bit tired late on to finish a 36L 8th. He does have a lot of weight to carry, but has to be one of the possible winners.   Kaproyale - Won this contest last year in good style when he beat Magic Saint. He's only had 3 starts this season. He was a solid 2nd at Hereford in January and then won a point at Charing in March which was decent enough as he isn't the strongest stayer at 3m. Then last month he went back to hunter chases and ran terribly at Kempton where he ended up being a well beaten 5th. That run was too bad to be true so I can forgive him that and he has a chance of keeping his title, but I do think there is more depth to this race than last year.   Fier Jaguen - I was right to take him on at Cheltenham as he didn't win although I didn't find the right one to beat him. His jumping to his right wasn't quite as bad as it usually is that night, but he was running on empty after the last and A Jet Of Our Own managed to run him down. I don't think he's been as good this season as he was last season and the Cheltenham run backed that up although it was still a decent effort. This is a front runners track so he could well make all, but this is not the track where you want to be jumping out to your right given how tight it is and I can see him losing many lengths at the fences.   Calidad - Was stuffed off 86 in a handicap in November and whilst his two 3rds in points this month haven't been too bad it is hard to see him getting involved.   Cat Tiger - I don't think he is quite as good as he was, but I did think he ran very well at Cheltenham last time when finishing a length 2nd to Rebel Dawn Rising. Dare I say it but if you swap the jockey's around I actually think you might have got a different result. It's been a long time since he ran over a trip this short, but he has to go on the shortlist on the back of the Cheltenham effort.   Cooldine Bog - Actually didn't run to bad in the race won by Cap Du Mathan at Leicester in March and was badly hampered at 3 out when he unseated his jockey. His next hunter chase run came at Cheltenham where he made the running for a bit before tailing off and pulling up in the same race as Cat Tiger. He ran in a point on Sunday and was a well beaten 4th, but he didn't stay after leading for a fair way. Dropping back down to this trip will help him, but hard to see how he can lead in front of Fier Jaguen and chances are he wont be good enough.   Mix Of Clover - Well beaten off 104 in a Worcester handicap in September and struggled to get round when he went pointing this year as he unseated the first twice and then ran out. He has completed on his next two starts both over 2m4f where he hasn't looked to stay in what were decent enough races. Clearly the 2m trip is what he needs, but he has been making the running and that is going to be tough for him to do here.   Olly Norse - The 12L 2nd to Deise Aba at Larkhill on New Years Eve was a decent enough effort and he was 2nd again at Garthorpe just over a month later. He didn't run again until the Intermediate Final where he was a well beaten 8th. This will be a very different test and hard to see him being good enough.   Rewritetherules - Was 3rd in this race last year although 17.5L behind Kaproyale. This year he has pulled up in all 4 starts and it is hard to see him even getting close to repeating his 3rd let alone do better.   The Golden Rebel - Was a reasonable handicap chaser for Ben Case during 2021 and 2022, but was off for 492 days before making his debut for current connections in a point over 2m4f last month. Was last that day and hard to make a case for him here.   Missed Tee - Looks set to finally get some decent ground which is beginning to look crucial for her after he runs so far this year. She was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford in the race won by Forest Chimes. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although I don't think it helped her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise there than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. She was keen again at Cheltenham and I can understand why Immy tried to find the better ground on the outside of Fier Jaguen, but you never really want to be the outside of him given how he jumps. She was a 20L 3rd in the end so does have a lot of ground to make up on Fier Jaguen, but with this ground set to suit her much better she might well be able to reverse that form although ideally she will need to settle better in behind horses given how much pace there is going to be.   Verdict - I'm going to take Fier Jaguen on again. If he jumps as badly out to his right as he can do then I think he will do very well to win a race that I think is a bit stronger than the Cheltenham race has been this year and last year. I was tempted to back Cat Tiger because I do love that Cheltenham race as mentioned in the previous contest, but whilst I used to have no issue with backing Maxwell I do think he has gone backwards as a jockey and also I don't think he has ever ridden Stratford well which is backed up by the fact that in 9 rides at the track the best he has managed is one 2nd. Cap Du Mathan has plenty of weight, but he does have a chance. Whilst I do think this race is stronger than last year, course form is crucial at Stratford so I will give Kaproyale a chance to bounce back from a run at Kempton which was too bad to be true. He's the saver bet, but the main bet is Missed Tee e/w. Hopefully with better ground Immy will be able to keep on the right side of Fier Jaguen which she couldn't do at Cheltenham. I know it is a lot of ground to make up on him, but I really do think the better ground will give her the chance to get closer and hopefully actually get past him.   Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

Cheltenham could hardly have gone any better so it would be nice to repeat the feat tonight at Stratford tonight to end the hunter chase season. Here are my thoughts on the card.
NB prices were taken at around 9am this morning
6.05 Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2) 6.35 Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4) 7.05 Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) 7.35 Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4) 8.05 Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5) 8.40 Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)   6.05  Castle Daragh - Caused a massive shock when winning the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last time and after the race we found that his jockey who works for David Pipe actually trains him on his lunchbreak. That form is untrustworthy for me and the fact the 5th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday backs that theory up. The 2nd Gats And Co was pulled up in a handicap on his next start as well.   Caballo Diablo - Did well to win a 1 runner Restricted at Cocklebarrow on his seasonal return in January. Next start though he pulled up and possibly something was amiss as he didn't run for nearly 2 months. The 2nd to Latenightrumble on Easter Sunday was a fair effort given how he got on at Cheltenham and he then won in the fastest time of the day at Witton Castle. The problem is he ran on Sunday at Kingston Blount and he ran terribly. Hard to back him on the back of that.   Jay Bee Whisky - Showed a bit of promise last season in maidens, but he has really thrived this season as he won 5 on the bounce. He was well backed ahead of easily landing a maiden in November and his restricted success was even easier the following month as he hacked up by 20L. Connections decided to run him in another restricted as you are able to do now under a 5lbs penalty and he was well backed to win again. His next two starts were in a conditions race and a mixed open and he had two very easy wins at long odds on again, both over 2m4f. His first defeat of the season came in his last start on Easter Monday where he was an 8L 2nd to Looksnowtlikebrian. Now that one was just behind Castle Daragh at Chepstow, but I don't think he quite ran up to form that night as it came just 6 days after running in the Lady Dudley Cup. I also wonder if maybe Jay Bee Whiskey wasn't quite at his best in that race because he's had 2 months off since no doubt with this race in mind and he looks to have a leading chance.   Learntalot - Won on the first day of the pointing season at the start of November when going off at 4/6, but he hasn't got his head in front in 4 runs since and one of those he finished 3rd behind Jay Bee Whiskey. He looks to have a bit to find.   Mount Pleasant - Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs under rules for Nicky Henderson in the 21/22 season and whilst he won a maiden point last year he also struggled on occasions. This season he has really improved though and has won 4 of his six starts. He started off with a 5th in January when he ran like he needed the run. He then won 2 restricteds in good style and had Caballo Diabolo behind him in the first of those. He was then 3rd at Higham before winning an intermediate at Parham last month. The time was really slow though which is a bit off putting. He won again at Edgcote a couple of weeks ago although he did make harder work of it then it looked like he was going to do and he had to survive a stewards enquiry. The 2nd did boost the form by winning on Sunday though, but again it was a rather slow time. This race was highlighted after the race so it has clearly been a target and he has a chance.   Padjoes Legacy - Was pulled up behind Mount Pleasant in March, but has improved since then as he beat Well P by 5L at Kimble and then won a match at High Easter. I didn't really give him that much of a chance in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, but he ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd 4.75L behind Iskandar Pecos. He did look a hard ride that night though and he was on and off the bridle which isn't ideal he does that round here. No better jockey to keep him to his work though and if he can repeat that run he's got a superb chance here because that form for me is stronger than the Chepstow form.   Red Nika - Had shown promise under rules in the 20-21 season for Tom Lacey after winning a point maiden in 2019 for his wife and he then wasn't seen for nearly 3 years. He bolted up in a restricted when returning pointing in February, but then was put in her place by Wolf Walker who is a very promising horse despite losing at Cheltenham last time. I thought he had some sort of chance at Chepstow and did run well enough to finish a 3.5L 4th to Castle Daragh. At tonight's weights he actually has the beating of him and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form.   Well P - Has 5L to make up on Padjoes Legacy at Kimble on Easter Saturday when they were 1st and 2nd. He has won both his starts since though and bolted up by 15L at Edgcote last time in a time nearly 20 seconds quicker than Mount Pleasant's race although the final circuit sectional of the latter's race was slightly quicker. His first win this month was his trainers first win in 9 years!   Verdict - I don't think it is the easiest race to call and whilst I think Red Nika can reverse Chepstow form with Castle Daragh, I am happy to take them both on and hope I am right again about that form being weak. Mount Pleasant has done well this season, but it does worry me that his last two wins have been in slow races. Well P wouldn't be a surprise winner, but he does have ground to make up on Padjoes Legacy and I make him one of the bets. Yes I am slightly concerned about how he travelled at Cheltenham, but I thought it was a superb effort to finish 3rd and its the strongest form in the race for me. The other one to back is Jay Bee Whiskey who has looked very promising this season. Yes the 2nd last time wasn't quite as good, but he's been freshened up since then and that should see him bounce back to form.   Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1) Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)   6.35 Famous Clermont - Can't say I expected him to turn up in this race, but I guess he's had a limited season and this is really the only suitable race on the card for him so he may as well run. He hasn't got anywhere near the heights he reached last season in his 4 runs so far and I would have taken him on had he run at Aintree again. I do think Punchestown though showed promise as he did go quite far clear with Samcro at one stage and was clearly doing a bit too much. It was no surprise he got tired and after he made terrible mistake at the last where he basically stopped to a walk he was pretty much allowed to walk the rest of the way. This is a weaker contest and dropping down in trip round a tight track is going to be a more suitable test for him. This statement is no slight on Izzie who has just won the pointing ladies title, but we know Famous Clermont is a tricky ride and he takes a lot of knowing. Izzie is going to be at her best on him.   Shantou Flyer - Has had another fantastic season at the age of 14 and his 6th at Cheltenham was another cracking effort in the race. Since then he has finished 2nd to Master Templer, he then ran out on Olive as Stafford Cross which was a bizarre one as he's never looked like doing something like that before. After that he has had a couple of easy successes earlier this month. He won this race last year under a very good ride from Olive who made full use of his stamina round a trip and track which weren't certain to suit. Two things this time around though. First of all there was nothing as good as Famous Clermont in the race and secondly he has clearly regressed a little which is no surprise at his age.   Captain Biggles - Just won the restricted race on this card last year so we know he handles course and distance, but that race didn't contain anything like the quality of the other two. He's done well enough this season having won first time out and then finished 2nd in 3 points although he was beaten at 4/9 last time. He did also run in the Walrus at Haydock in February but not surprisingly got bogged down in the mud. He would need both the front two to run below par to win this.   Imperial Esprit - Was 15L behind Yccs Portocervo when 4th at Kempton, but has won 2 points since in good style. Would still be a surprise winner for me.   Shang Tang - He's had a solid enough season on his first term for his new connections having won a couple of points. The 2nd at Ludlow to Captain Tommy wasn't a bad effort either and he was in contention when unseating at the same venue in March. He found himself outpaced last time at Eyton over 2m4f though and I suspect despite the small field we could see a fast pace here and that might get him out of his comfort zone as well.   Verdict - Captain Biggles isn't completely out of this, but I suspect it will be between the top two in the betting. I do think Famous Clermont is the most likely winner, but quite frankly in my view his price stinks. He has enough doubts about his chance that he shouldn't be an odds on shot and I reckon Shantou Flyer is going to attempt to make it a test of stamina again if he can. He is the value in the race for me as I don't think he should be such a big difference in the betting between the two and you can almost be certain he will give his running whereas you can't be with Famous Clermont based on this season.   Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)   7.05 Forest Chimes - On the face of it he was a little lucky to win on his hunter chase debut at Stratford in March as the 2nd Grand Roi made a mistake at the last and lost more ground than he was beaten by, but Grand Roi is a thinker and I don't think he would have gone past whatever. Since he lost his maiden tag he has been a winning machine in points having won 6 of his 10 starts since April 2022. After the Stratford win he went to Chaddesley Corbett and got beaten although I don't think the jockey change would have helped. Darren Andrews was back on when he won earlier this month at Eyton and it was a very easy success over 2m4f. I think he's useful, but you do have to wonder about him over this far given how good he has looked over shorter this season.   Go Go Geronimo - Not the first time he has run in this race as he was beaten 0.75L by Ask D'man in 2022. His only other hunter chase start came in the big on at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. He run 5 times this season although one of those races ended up having to be stopped and voided. He finished 2nd 3 times and then managed to win last time, but he doesn't really look in the form where you think he is going to go and be capable of beating Iskandar Pecos. What he does have in his favour is he will make the running and that is never a bad thing round here although in this small field he could have competition for that role.   Iskandar Pecos - One of our winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and an astonishing price as well as he went off 3/1 in the end. It was another top effort and he has done nothing but improve all season. He obviously is the one they have to beat, but one note of caution is that he wouldn't be the first winner of the Intermediate Final to then disappoint in this race. Harbour Court was the last horse to do the double in 2013.   King Orry - To be fair his 3rd at Newton Abbot last week was much better than I thought he would go and no surprise the handicapper put him up from 64 to 87. Clearly his form isn't good enough to win this though.   Master Templar - Has proven himself to be a real stayer this season and I thought his 2nd to Gaboriot at Cheltenham over 4m was a new personal best. He was keen on that occasion and helped set quite a strong pace given the conditions and yet he still stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. That form was boosted at Cartmel on Wednesday night and his previous start saw him beat Shantou Flyer so that form might get a boost earlier on the card. I guess the big issue is how much that Cheltenham race has taken out of him, but it was only his 4th race this season so you would hope he'd be fine. Could be rivals for the lead again, but on paper he is better than those two rivals and we know he will keep going out in front so this track could be ideal for him.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase that she was 2nd in prior to joining Bradley Gibbs and on the face of it she has a bit to find with some of these. She mainly front ran in Ireland so might well be another to help make the running.   Verdict - We have a small field yet again for this race which is a shame, but despite that it does look like there will be plenty of pace on and that should suit Iskandar Pecos who can sit just off the pace and hopefully pick them off let on. I do think Master Templar will be a big danger and there isn't a huge amount of juice in Iskandar Pecos' price, but there is enough there to get involved.   Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)   7.35 Annamix - Great to see an Irish challenger in the big race and he is one that has a serious chance as well. He was entered at Punchestown and Downpatrick, but he's skipped both those and I wonder if this was a target after his really good 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He might have finished closer as well as a loose horse got in his way on the run-in. It was no surprise that he ran like he needed further because I think 2m5f is short of ideal for him. He's jumped much better than he did last season when even when winning at Fairyhouse he made plenty of mistakes. I think he will go very close.   D'Jango - Written plenty of times this season how big a fan I've been of him this term and how well his new trainer has done to improve him no end. The 4th at The Festival was a top effort and then he disappointed behind Master Templar in a point. No surprise to see him stay on so strongly even over 4m in the mud at Cheltenham last time and it was a return to form when he was 3rd to Gaboriot. I'd love to see him run well again, but I do wonder if Stratford is quite the track that will see him at his best and even a repeat of his Cheltenham effort probably wouldn't be good enough to win this.   Fairly Famous - Proved at Cheltenham why he had been sent off as 11/10 favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby back in February where he hated the ground. I thought it was a really good performance to tough it out against Premier Magic, who himself was putting in an improved performance. The better ground here is going to be perfect for him and he is one of the leading contenders.   Go On Chez - Has had 2 very easy victories in hunter chases the last couple of months at Ludlow and Kelso. This race does make sense for him to run in and I think he will stay. The ground is vital for him though and he needs it as quick as possible. I also just wonder if he's quite up to this level, but he's had a light campaign and that might end up being crucial so he's a possible winner.   Law Of Gold - Has a great record at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup and then this race the following year before the year after that finishing 2nd to Vaucelet. I didn't back him any of those times, but did really fancy him for last year's race and he duly ran one of his worst ever races. He also ran one of his worse ever races last time at Cheltenham where the ground totally went against him and he pulled up in the 4m race which he had won the year before. The ground should be fine tonight and clearly he can be forgiven his Cheltenham run and the run in this last year. He's not top of my list, but if he did get his title back it would not surprise.   Lift Me Up - Looked impressive at Newbury on his hunter chase debut last March, but then didn't back it up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. His Kimble win on Easter Saturday was impressive, but that was over 2m4f and to me he didn't stay at Cheltenham when a well beaten 3rd behind Fairy Famous and Premier Magic. The better ground will help, but then he also has further to travel so I can't see the Horner's having a big race winner.   Premier Magic - As mentioned above I thought it was a real return to form at Cheltenham last time after a couple of meaningless point wins and a poor performance at The Festival this season. The better ground is probably in his favour, but then it is also in Fairly Famous' favour as well and I don't really see how he can reverse the form.   What A Glance - Another one of the winners I put up at Cheltenham and what a win it was as well as he cruised into contention and only had to be pushed out to beat Yippee Ki Yay by 11L. That's strong form as he's a progressive horse himself and won at Kelso on Sunday. The handicapper put him up from 96 to 124 which is fully justified. I think the 2 2nds to Deise Aba were good efforts and the one here over 2m6f looked like he was tapped for toe over the trip. I'd love to see him run well, but my head says he probably wont be quite up to this level.   Verdict - What a race we have for the big one this year as I don't think any of them would be a total surprise if they won, even Lift Me Up has a good level of ability and I don't think there are any total no hopers. The two that I think have the biggest chance though are Fairly Famous and Annamix. I'm going to cover them both, but bigger preference is just for Annamix. The Aintree 3rd is the best piece of form in the race and he looks like he has been saved for this. Fairly Famous was so tough at Cheltenham last time and with this better ground set to suit I don't see how Premier Magic can reverse the form. I might regret not going in again on What A Glance given how impressive he was at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two and I have the same view on Go On Chez. Law Of Gold could be very dangerous though as you can forget his run in this last year and at Cheltenham last time and we know he loves the track.   Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)   8.05 Rebel Dawn Rising - Really gutsy effort to win at Cheltenham last time beating Cat Tiger by a length and the handicapper has kept him on 129 which is handy when it comes to this race. I don't think the testing ground would have been ideal that night and so the better ground should help here. This is the perfect trip for him and Dale's 3lbs will come in handy given he has joint top weight.   Stratagem - Did well hunter chasing in 2022 although he probably should have done even better and he was only 4th behind Solomon Grey at Cheltenham. This year he has been given a shocking campaign. I have no idea whose idea it has been to run him in the Southwell and Hexham races this season, but they were 2 races he shouldn't have run in. He doesn't really stay 3m and he hates heavy ground so first up they run him on soft ground over 3m at Southwell and no surprise he didn't see it out especially given how long he'd been off the track for. Next up they sent him to one of the stiffest tracks in the country on worst ground over 3m again. He duly finished 139L behind Jerrysback. Maybe getting his handicap mark down for this race was the plan, but I doubt it. This race should be much more suitable, but he has 12-9 to carry with David unable to claim so whilst I am expecting a better performance he wont be carrying my money.   Envious Editor - Was another horse that Joe O'Shea had massively improved back in 2022 and the start of 2023. When he won at Taunton last January he looked like he would go on to even better things, but he then ran terribly at Hereford and was put in his place by Famous Clermont at Haydock. I'm not sure why, but he left Joe's after that and whilst the 3rds at Ludlow and Cheltenham were OK they were more signs he wasn't in the same form. He was then stuffed in Ladies race on this card last year. Another new trainer this season and he only reappeared at Hexham's point track 2 weeks ago. Good effort to win after such a long time off, but I don't think it was a strong race and whilst in theory he is well handicapped I prefer others in the race.   Solomon Grey - Has run at this meeting the last 2 years, but he was never going to stay in the Horse & Hound a couple of years ago and whilst he ran well enough behind Shantou Flyer in the Ladies race last year he was always going to struggle to keep up with the speed he went round here. For me this is the race for him. He's been 3rd in all 3 starts far this season, but he always needs his first run of the season and there was 77 days between that and his course and distance 3rd behind Deise Aba and What A Glance. That's strong form for me and I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham behind Rebel Dawn Rising and Cat Tiger on ground he would have hated. He is going to get his ground tonight. At Cheltenham Solomon Grey carried 5lbs less, but here he is going to carry a stone less and there will be more improvement to come on the ground. I think he has a huge chance.   Peacocks Secret - Has run in this race the last 2 years. He was a well beaten 3rd in 2022 and then last year he was beaten 2L by Sixteen Letters when giving him 5lbs and this year he will get 5lbs because of his jockey's claim. Not sure he's been in the best of form this season though as even his win over Back Bar isn't great and then last time he was beaten at 1/2. In theory Back Bar should reverse the form at these weights as well. Think its clear his trainer thinks Rebel Dawn Rising has the better chance.   Sixteen Letters - Looked like he was going to be the best handicapped horse in the race last year and he was duly very well backed to win off a mark of 110. He's not run under rules since so just has the 3lbs rise to cope with. No doubt this has been the target, but I'm just not sure he is in as good form as he was this time last year. He was well beaten in his first couple of races of the season, but they were strong heats. He then had a couple of very easy tasks at ¼ before finishing twice. The first of which was still a decent a effort, but not sure the second of them was a great run. He then went to Peper Harrow a couple of weeks ago and won a weak 3 runner race. I think the other thing to consider was last year's renewal of this was pretty weak and I think this is a stronger renewal.   Drakes Well - Won a hunter chase over 2m5f here in March 2022 but wasn't able to run for 690 days until he returned in the 2m race at Leicester and his fall was what caused Cooldine Bog to unseat as will be mentioned in the 8.40 race when he and the winner Cap Du Mathan both run. It was a decent effort though on his return and he's got better for 3 more runs in points. He won at Mollington earlier this month over 2m4f and whilst the bare form isn't great he did record a decent speed figure. This was mentioned as a target after the race and Jack Andrews takes over from the trainers son. He wouldn't be top of my list, but a bold showing would not surprise.   Back Bar - Been a frustrating horse over the years although does have a hunter chase win to his name having won a novice event at Leicester in February 2022. Only run in one hunter chase in the last couple of seasons and he was beaten in a poor heat at Fontwell at 6/5. He's had 14 runs in points in that time and has managed to win 3, but he's nearly always near the head of the market and doesn't really convert as many as he should. Obviously he gets the weight he deserves to get, but I still don't think he can win.   Verdict - I think the Cheltenham race is the key piece of form here and with the ground spot on for Solomon Grey I think he looks a cracking e/w bet in this. For me he looks the best handicapped horse in the race and he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. I will also have a saver on Rebel Dawn Rising because he is such a tough horse and he is the main danger for me and hopefully I am right with the Cheltenham form being key.   Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1) Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)   8.40 Cap Du Mathan - Was entered in the sales last week, but was withdrawn so still runs for Paul Nicholls. He made his hunter chase debut in March in the 2m race at Leicester and had a fairly comfortable success when he outclassed his rivals. He had pulled up on his two previous starts in handicaps so dropping down to this level worked. He then ran in the Aintree Foxhunters and ran well enough before getting a bit tired late on to finish a 36L 8th. He does have a lot of weight to carry, but has to be one of the possible winners.   Kaproyale - Won this contest last year in good style when he beat Magic Saint. He's only had 3 starts this season. He was a solid 2nd at Hereford in January and then won a point at Charing in March which was decent enough as he isn't the strongest stayer at 3m. Then last month he went back to hunter chases and ran terribly at Kempton where he ended up being a well beaten 5th. That run was too bad to be true so I can forgive him that and he has a chance of keeping his title, but I do think there is more depth to this race than last year.   Fier Jaguen - I was right to take him on at Cheltenham as he didn't win although I didn't find the right one to beat him. His jumping to his right wasn't quite as bad as it usually is that night, but he was running on empty after the last and A Jet Of Our Own managed to run him down. I don't think he's been as good this season as he was last season and the Cheltenham run backed that up although it was still a decent effort. This is a front runners track so he could well make all, but this is not the track where you want to be jumping out to your right given how tight it is and I can see him losing many lengths at the fences.   Calidad - Was stuffed off 86 in a handicap in November and whilst his two 3rds in points this month haven't been too bad it is hard to see him getting involved.   Cat Tiger - I don't think he is quite as good as he was, but I did think he ran very well at Cheltenham last time when finishing a length 2nd to Rebel Dawn Rising. Dare I say it but if you swap the jockey's around I actually think you might have got a different result. It's been a long time since he ran over a trip this short, but he has to go on the shortlist on the back of the Cheltenham effort.   Cooldine Bog - Actually didn't run to bad in the race won by Cap Du Mathan at Leicester in March and was badly hampered at 3 out when he unseated his jockey. His next hunter chase run came at Cheltenham where he made the running for a bit before tailing off and pulling up in the same race as Cat Tiger. He ran in a point on Sunday and was a well beaten 4th, but he didn't stay after leading for a fair way. Dropping back down to this trip will help him, but hard to see how he can lead in front of Fier Jaguen and chances are he wont be good enough.   Mix Of Clover - Well beaten off 104 in a Worcester handicap in September and struggled to get round when he went pointing this year as he unseated the first twice and then ran out. He has completed on his next two starts both over 2m4f where he hasn't looked to stay in what were decent enough races. Clearly the 2m trip is what he needs, but he has been making the running and that is going to be tough for him to do here.   Olly Norse - The 12L 2nd to Deise Aba at Larkhill on New Years Eve was a decent enough effort and he was 2nd again at Garthorpe just over a month later. He didn't run again until the Intermediate Final where he was a well beaten 8th. This will be a very different test and hard to see him being good enough.   Rewritetherules - Was 3rd in this race last year although 17.5L behind Kaproyale. This year he has pulled up in all 4 starts and it is hard to see him even getting close to repeating his 3rd let alone do better.   The Golden Rebel - Was a reasonable handicap chaser for Ben Case during 2021 and 2022, but was off for 492 days before making his debut for current connections in a point over 2m4f last month. Was last that day and hard to make a case for him here.   Missed Tee - Looks set to finally get some decent ground which is beginning to look crucial for her after he runs so far this year. She was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford in the race won by Forest Chimes. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although I don't think it helped her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise there than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. She was keen again at Cheltenham and I can understand why Immy tried to find the better ground on the outside of Fier Jaguen, but you never really want to be the outside of him given how he jumps. She was a 20L 3rd in the end so does have a lot of ground to make up on Fier Jaguen, but with this ground set to suit her much better she might well be able to reverse that form although ideally she will need to settle better in behind horses given how much pace there is going to be.   Verdict - I'm going to take Fier Jaguen on again. If he jumps as badly out to his right as he can do then I think he will do very well to win a race that I think is a bit stronger than the Cheltenham race has been this year and last year. I was tempted to back Cat Tiger because I do love that Cheltenham race as mentioned in the previous contest, but whilst I used to have no issue with backing Maxwell I do think he has gone backwards as a jockey and also I don't think he has ever ridden Stratford well which is backed up by the fact that in 9 rides at the track the best he has managed is one 2nd. Cap Du Mathan has plenty of weight, but he does have a chance. Whilst I do think this race is stronger than last year, course form is crucial at Stratford so I will give Kaproyale a chance to bounce back from a run at Kempton which was too bad to be true. He's the saver bet, but the main bet is Missed Tee e/w. Hopefully with better ground Immy will be able to keep on the right side of Fier Jaguen which she couldn't do at Cheltenham. I know it is a lot of ground to make up on him, but I really do think the better ground will give her the chance to get closer and hopefully actually get past him.   Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1) Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

I've just realised I forgot to put the points next to the R2 winner. It was meant to be 2pts, but will settle at 1pt due to the error. Duke Of Bedford was frustrating as he loomed large and I needed him for a treble and 4 fold with the 2 hunter chase winners yesterday, but it wasn't to be. Will be back for the top class action at Sandown on Sunday.

I've just realised I forgot to put the points next to the R2 winner. It was meant to be 2pts, but will settle at 1pt due to the error. Duke Of Bedford was frustrating as he loomed large and I needed him for a treble and 4 fold with the 2 hunter chase winners yesterday, but it wasn't to be. Will be back for the top class action at Sandown on Sunday.

5 races at Hamilton on Thursday morning starting with 2 divisions of the maiden hurdle. I will use Bet365 prices again, but I have checked William Hill and Betfred and both have prices up and in some cases are bigger.
Race 1
Irish Butterfly was a well backed odds on shot at Warrnambool, but on the face of it was a disappointing 5th even though he was only beaten 4.31L. That effort came on the back of a 1L 1nd to Elementary on his hurdles debut also at Warrnambool in March. The crucial thing though was he was found to have mucus in his scope after that last run and the vet thinks that may have affected his performance. With that excuse he should do better here.
Prismatic is the other one at the head of the market. He had one start in New Zealand last July over 2500m and finished 4th. Since coming over from New Zealand he's been running some solid races on the flat in some decent level races although his worse performance was at Cranbourne on Friday when he was only 6th.
Fatigues and Vadarchie are both in single figures, but both were well beaten on their hurdles debut so I find it hard to fancy them. Davelliom is the same price as those two, but he has shown a bit more promise. He needed his first hurdle run in March and although 5th wasn't beaten far. He was then 3rd at Ballarat only beaten 3.1L and he seemed to enjoy making the running, which was something his jockey mentioned after his 6th at Warrnambool last time. He settled mid div that day and his jockey reported that he did not feel comfortable and might be better suited to racing further forward in future.
I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but Irish Butterfly strikes me as the most likely winner. He would be odds on if coming here on the back of his debut effort and the fact we have an excuse for his run last time mean we can forgive him it. Prismatic and Davelliom strike me as the only other possible winners.
Irish Butterfly 1pt @ 6/5 with Bet365
Race 2
Chances are this race will go to one of the front two in the betting. Our Candidate started life out over here back in 2017 for Hughie Morrison and I would say he's probably improved since he went to Australia although he is 9 now so quite old to be starting out on his hurdling career. I watched his last hurdle trial which was last month and he jumped well on the whole just making one mistake. He ran well enough on the flat at Warrnambool on what was his first start since last July. 
He's certainly a much better flat horse than Maatsuyker who has only won once on the level, but does promise to be a better hurdler. He has run twice and was 3rd and then 2nd with Dubai Moon one place in front of him on both occasions. That is strong form for me and he sets a decent level for Our Candidate to aim for and I think he can go one place better than at Casterton.
Maatsuyker @ 13/10 with Bet365
Race 3
This is, as most of the handicap hurdles seem to be at the moment, a competitive heat. I have been with Fabalot both times this season, but whilst the Pakenham effort was decent enough, I thought he was disappointing in the big hurdle at Warrnambool last time so I am going to pass him over this time.
Pure Deal is favourite, but I'm not sure he deserves to be. He failed to finish in that Warrnambool race although he was lame and had bled so he can be excused that effort. I thought he was average though at Pakenham the time before and he does have to find his form again after looking promising when winning his maiden at Warrnambool a year ago.
Rising Renown actually finished in front of Fabalot at Warrnambool and didn't run too badly at Casterton when 2nd to Out And Dreaming. I'm not quite sure why he is 9/1 so I will have a small bet on him.
Frankenstar and Huntly Castle ran 3rd and 4th in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool which were solid efforts and they have claims. Abreed lost his jockey in that race and was a big price that day. In theory he needs to step up on his hurdles form so far this season, but I am actually going to cover him. Those who follow me on Twitter will probably know I have a share in a horse called Cable Dancer and they both ran in the same race at Ballarat on Sunday. I had gone through the form and thought it looked a hot race for the level and gave Abreed no chance. He actually stormed home to finish a very good 2nd behind a progressive horse who won the race. If he can run like that back over hurdles then off bottom weight he has to have a winning chance.
Abreed 0.5pts @ 13/5 with Bet365
Rising Renown 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365
Race 4
We have two top class horses lining up in this Maiden Steeplechase in the shape of Port Guillaume and Wil John. The former did only manage to win his maiden over hurdles and was a well beaten 4th in this card last year in the previous race. He did run a very good 2nd though in the big hurdle at Warrnambool last time and had The Mighty Spar behind him in 4th. He's been running in Listed and Group races on the flat this year and ran as well as could have been hoped in the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington 11 days ago. I watched his steeple trial from last month and he jumped well enough.
Wil John was a the best hurdler in Australia in 2021 and he ended up winning the Grand National Hurdle. He also took the longest flat race in Australia that November. Sadly he then picked up an injury and wasn't seen in 2022. Over hurdles last year he ran just twice and didn't run that well either time. This year his had just 1 flat run and a few trials and I have to say I was really impressed with his jumping in his last steeple trial at Traralgon earlier in the month. He looked a complete natural and whilst there has to be a concern he will need the run against a hard fit Port Guillaume, going over fences could see him back to his 2021 best. I am going to take a chance at the prices that he can get the better of the favourite.
Wil John 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Race 5
Tolemac has the ability to win this on old form, but I don't think he's going all that well this season even if this is a drop in class. Aquileon hadn't shown too much in maiden hurdles, but was running a very good race behind Elvision at Casterton 11 days ago until he came down at 4 out. That is actually still a fair way from home so it is hard to know how he would have got on as he had chased a strong pace set by the winner and he might have paid for it late on. You do have to give him a chance though on the run up to the fall.
I was very strong on Duke Of Bedford at Warrnambool after being really impressed with him when he won at Ballarat, but he did handle Warrnambool at all and did well to finish 3rd behind Tom Foolery who then went onto finish 3rd in the Grand Annual the following day. This does look the perfect opportunity to bounce back to winning form and even at odds on I think he is worth a bet. There has been money for Carnamah who was 3rd in a maiden hurdle at Casterton and has yet to run over fences. Clearly better is expected by someone, but he is going to have be pretty useful
Duke Of Bedford 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365

5 races at Hamilton on Thursday morning starting with 2 divisions of the maiden hurdle. I will use Bet365 prices again, but I have checked William Hill and Betfred and both have prices up and in some cases are bigger.
Race 1
Irish Butterfly was a well backed odds on shot at Warrnambool, but on the face of it was a disappointing 5th even though he was only beaten 4.31L. That effort came on the back of a 1L 1nd to Elementary on his hurdles debut also at Warrnambool in March. The crucial thing though was he was found to have mucus in his scope after that last run and the vet thinks that may have affected his performance. With that excuse he should do better here.
Prismatic is the other one at the head of the market. He had one start in New Zealand last July over 2500m and finished 4th. Since coming over from New Zealand he's been running some solid races on the flat in some decent level races although his worse performance was at Cranbourne on Friday when he was only 6th.
Fatigues and Vadarchie are both in single figures, but both were well beaten on their hurdles debut so I find it hard to fancy them. Davelliom is the same price as those two, but he has shown a bit more promise. He needed his first hurdle run in March and although 5th wasn't beaten far. He was then 3rd at Ballarat only beaten 3.1L and he seemed to enjoy making the running, which was something his jockey mentioned after his 6th at Warrnambool last time. He settled mid div that day and his jockey reported that he did not feel comfortable and might be better suited to racing further forward in future.
I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but Irish Butterfly strikes me as the most likely winner. He would be odds on if coming here on the back of his debut effort and the fact we have an excuse for his run last time mean we can forgive him it. Prismatic and Davelliom strike me as the only other possible winners.
Irish Butterfly 1pt @ 6/5 with Bet365
Race 2
Chances are this race will go to one of the front two in the betting. Our Candidate started life out over here back in 2017 for Hughie Morrison and I would say he's probably improved since he went to Australia although he is 9 now so quite old to be starting out on his hurdling career. I watched his last hurdle trial which was last month and he jumped well on the whole just making one mistake. He ran well enough on the flat at Warrnambool on what was his first start since last July. 
He's certainly a much better flat horse than Maatsuyker who has only won once on the level, but does promise to be a better hurdler. He has run twice and was 3rd and then 2nd with Dubai Moon one place in front of him on both occasions. That is strong form for me and he sets a decent level for Our Candidate to aim for and I think he can go one place better than at Casterton.
Maatsuyker @ 13/10 with Bet365
Race 3
This is, as most of the handicap hurdles seem to be at the moment, a competitive heat. I have been with Fabalot both times this season, but whilst the Pakenham effort was decent enough, I thought he was disappointing in the big hurdle at Warrnambool last time so I am going to pass him over this time.
Pure Deal is favourite, but I'm not sure he deserves to be. He failed to finish in that Warrnambool race although he was lame and had bled so he can be excused that effort. I thought he was average though at Pakenham the time before and he does have to find his form again after looking promising when winning his maiden at Warrnambool a year ago.
Rising Renown actually finished in front of Fabalot at Warrnambool and didn't run too badly at Casterton when 2nd to Out And Dreaming. I'm not quite sure why he is 9/1 so I will have a small bet on him.
Frankenstar and Huntly Castle ran 3rd and 4th in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool which were solid efforts and they have claims. Abreed lost his jockey in that race and was a big price that day. In theory he needs to step up on his hurdles form so far this season, but I am actually going to cover him. Those who follow me on Twitter will probably know I have a share in a horse called Cable Dancer and they both ran in the same race at Ballarat on Sunday. I had gone through the form and thought it looked a hot race for the level and gave Abreed no chance. He actually stormed home to finish a very good 2nd behind a progressive horse who won the race. If he can run like that back over hurdles then off bottom weight he has to have a winning chance.
Abreed 0.5pts @ 13/5 with Bet365
Rising Renown 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365
Race 4
We have two top class horses lining up in this Maiden Steeplechase in the shape of Port Guillaume and Wil John. The former did only manage to win his maiden over hurdles and was a well beaten 4th in this card last year in the previous race. He did run a very good 2nd though in the big hurdle at Warrnambool last time and had The Mighty Spar behind him in 4th. He's been running in Listed and Group races on the flat this year and ran as well as could have been hoped in the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington 11 days ago. I watched his steeple trial from last month and he jumped well enough.
Wil John was a the best hurdler in Australia in 2021 and he ended up winning the Grand National Hurdle. He also took the longest flat race in Australia that November. Sadly he then picked up an injury and wasn't seen in 2022. Over hurdles last year he ran just twice and didn't run that well either time. This year his had just 1 flat run and a few trials and I have to say I was really impressed with his jumping in his last steeple trial at Traralgon earlier in the month. He looked a complete natural and whilst there has to be a concern he will need the run against a hard fit Port Guillaume, going over fences could see him back to his 2021 best. I am going to take a chance at the prices that he can get the better of the favourite.
Wil John 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Race 5
Tolemac has the ability to win this on old form, but I don't think he's going all that well this season even if this is a drop in class. Aquileon hadn't shown too much in maiden hurdles, but was running a very good race behind Elvision at Casterton 11 days ago until he came down at 4 out. That is actually still a fair way from home so it is hard to know how he would have got on as he had chased a strong pace set by the winner and he might have paid for it late on. You do have to give him a chance though on the run up to the fall.
I was very strong on Duke Of Bedford at Warrnambool after being really impressed with him when he won at Ballarat, but he did handle Warrnambool at all and did well to finish 3rd behind Tom Foolery who then went onto finish 3rd in the Grand Annual the following day. This does look the perfect opportunity to bounce back to winning form and even at odds on I think he is worth a bet. There has been money for Carnamah who was 3rd in a maiden hurdle at Casterton and has yet to run over fences. Clearly better is expected by someone, but he is going to have be pretty useful
Duke Of Bedford 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365

Sorry didn't see this before now.

Hi Darran, 
Can I say just say thank you for what I regard as some of the finest analysis of racing I have read for a while. For those of us who don't follow point to point your writings are a wonderful resource.  Once again a fantastic result and its a pleasure to make a contribution towards small steps as a thank you. 

Rather good evening in the end and probably even better than I could have hoped for.

I may have topped it before I honestly can't remember. Obviously depends on how many runners there are at the meeting.

Fantastic tipping @Darran
quality stuff 👏🏻👏🏻
 

Rather good evening in the end and probably even better than I could have hoped for.

I may have topped it before I honestly can't remember. Obviously depends on how many runners there are at the meeting.

Rather good evening in the end and probably even better than I could have hoped for.

I've covered every horse running at Cheltenham and the leading contenders in the big race at Punchestown. The going is now soft at Cheltenham after they watered and then it rained. All prices are from around 9am this morning    4.35 Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1) 5.10
Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4) 5.45 What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1) 6.20 Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1) 6.55 No bet 7.30
Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1) 8.05
Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   Punchestown
Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1   4.35 Caryto Des Brosses - Probably not quite as good as he once was which is no surprise given he is now 12. Was a solid 2nd in this race last year to Fier Jaguen and on these terms he could reverse that form. Ran against him on his seasonal debut at Garthorpe when he was 11L behind him this time, but he always needs his first run of the season. Was 2nd again over 2m4f at Kimble to Lift Me Up who had also beaten him at Newbury last season. That was another solid performance and he was back to winning ways at Garthorpe 2 weeks ago. Nearly always runs his race and should go close.   Fier Jaguen - You may remember that I was a huge fan of this horse last season and put him up as a strong bet at Aintree, but his right handed jumping got in the way and he unseated Bradley. He then went to this race and I put him up as a max bet and whilst things are never going to be easy because of his right handed jumping he was always holding Caryto Des Brosses to have a fairly comfortable success. He won his first two races this season, but I was not impressed with him at all at Didmarton and I didn't think he was in as good form as he was last year. I was going to oppose him if he went to Aintree, but he was taken out at the 6 day stage and instead he went to High Easter where he was sent off 2/5 to beat Law Of Gold. He made the running as usual and jumped out to his right as usual, but looked the winner for most of the way and it was only in the closing stages that Law Of Gold got the better of him. There is no real disgrace by that though because he is a top class pointer/hunter chaser himself and it was probably his best run of the season. Still not sure he's quite in the same form as last year and obviously he is going to jump out to his right, but he still could win.   A Jet Of Our Own - Ridden by the owners son who has only had two rides under rules before both over hurdles. It took the horse a while to get his head in front, but once he won at Maisemore last March and then went onto land a hat-trick. He won those 3 races by 25L, 40L and 50L. He's had a solid season this time around winning 2 of his 6 races including at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks ago. That was a decent effort and saw his point rating go up 6lbs. He has been a beaten favourite twice this season though. He has led, as he did last time, but he has also been held up so hard to know what to expect on that front. The jockey's inexperience is going to be an issue and his form isn't yet at the level of Fier Jaguen or Caryto Des Brosses, but he might be capable of a top 3 finish.   Bigforyourboots - Must admit I can't quite understand why he's running in this. He ran in a bumper at Doncaster in January and was always well behind. He then ran in 2 points finishing 6th and then he pulled up on Easter Monday. He is trained by former jockey Luca Morgan and he's been ridden by good jockeys in both point starts and did go off 3/1 fav in the first of them. He hasn't looked to stay 2m4f in the two point runs so 2m out to suit, but I don't see how he can get anywhere near the best horses in this.   Fine Investment - Was 2nd to Exeter bumper winner Prophesea at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago who was following up the Exeter win at Flete Park. Fine Investment was in front until the final 50 yards so it was a decent effort. The 3rd at Leicester behind Iskandar Pecos the time before hinted at a little promise as well, but 2m on better ground didn't look to be what he needs.   Funky Sensation - I thought he ran a really good race in the final race on this card a year ago when he led and ended up being only beaten 12.5L by Paloma Blue. That was a strong race and he clearly has ability. His 2 hunter chase runs this season weren't bad either although he was a strange gamble at Exeter last time given he's never looked like he stays 3m and again he failed to stay when finishing 4th. 2m round here should be ideal for him although if they want to front run on him he is going to be doing well to be in front of Fier Jaguen, but given the run he put in on this card last year I wouldn't be surprised if he outran his odds.   Rewritetherules - Has sometimes run well in hunter chases, but the jockey switch didn't help him at all at Kempton last time and he pulled up in this race last year so hard to see him getting involved.   Whatchagotder - Luca Morgan also trains this one and again its hard to give him much of a chance as he is still a maiden after 7 starts here and in Ireland.   Missed Tee - Was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although it probably didn't help her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise here than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. 2m round here on good ground could be exactly what she needs, but the presence of Fier Jaguen might not help her.   Verdict - This race was very easy for me last year as I couldn't see Fier Jaguen getting beat, but I just don't think he's in quite the same form as last season. The yard have been much quieter this season compared to last season which might have something to do with it. Yes he has been winning, but he hasn't been as impressive and whereas he got away with some massively right-handed jumping last year I'm not sure he will this time around. Maybe after the race I will regret not sticking with him at odds against, but we shall see. It will be interesting what happens up front as well and the race could set up nicely for Caryto Des Brosses to close from behind and pick up the pieces of the strong pace. Missed Tee looks like dropping back to this trip is what she needs and she gets 15lbs from Fier Jaguen and she is worth backing e/w with 3 places on offer. I'd love to include Funky Sensation somehow because this trip is what he needs as well, but even so he's still going to find it hard to win.    Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1)   5.10 Another Furlough - He has looked very progressive this season as he has won 3 out of his 4 starts. The one time he got beat he was a 4L 3rd to Yippee Ki Yay which does give us a hunter chase reference to work on. The form comment said that he was given too much to do and having watched the race I would agree with that. He is always held up in his races, but his jockey overdid the tactics that day and as it turns out he was trying to catch a decent horse. The other issue is that is a right handed track and he jumps to his left so he was forfeiting a fair bit of ground at each fence. He has jumped left handed at left handed tracks as well although of course it is more helpful at those venues. He clocked a decent time when he won in February and then he beat Duc De Bourbon the following month and was value for more than the 4L margin as he was eased down. He looks promising.   Coolagh Park - Was only a length 2nd to Iskandar Pecos at Horseheath on New Years Eve which would give him a chance, but fair to say that one has improved massively since and he's been beaten twice and then won at 4/11 in between. So overall he has a bit too find.   Iskandar Pecos - Has improved massively over the season as often happens with horses from this yard and went very close to winning the Walrus at Haydock in February. 10 days later he had a very easy task at Leicester and then should have had a fairly easy task at Ludlow. However it didn't turn out like that as it needed the ride of the season from Huw to get him home and beat Before Midnight on the run-in. He raced very lazily and didn't jump that well either. Before Midnight set quite a decent pace and I think he was just struggling to keep up over that trip. 3m2f round Cheltenham is obviously a new test, but he sets a clear standard on form.   Latenightrumble - 2019 the winner was Latenightpass, 2022 the winner was Latenightfumble so will we see the hat-trick of relations win this race? Well he certainly has a chance. He was set to win on his seasonal return when he unseated at the last. He then won easily the following month although he beat Red Opium who was only 4th at Kelso last month so it isn't strong form. He then ran way below par when 4th at 4/5 before winning on Easter Monday at 1/4. Fair to say he hasn't achieved as strong form as a few of these, but it would be daft to write him off.   Minella Job - Been stuffed twice by Another Furlough so that along with his 3rd at Exeter a couple of weeks ago suggest he will struggle here.   Olly Norse - 2nd to Deise Aba on his return on New Years Eve wasn't a bad effort and then he was 2nd again 11L behind Paper Mill at Garthorpe. That suggests he is going to struggle here.   Padjoes Legacy - I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Gina rides him and not their horse as Jack always rides Latenightrumble. Was struggling earlier in the season, but things clicked at Kimble on Easter Saturday when winning in a decent time. He won again a couple of weeks later although it was only a match. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough.   Paper Mill - Easily beat Olly Norse at Garthorpe on his last start in February and he still looked green after he went clear suggesting there is more to come. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect which would be a small concern here. That was his 2nd win of the season after he won his only other start in January. I certainly wouldn't under estimate his chances, but I just wonder if he's going to be streetwise enough to win this.   Wolf Walker - Didn't really show a great deal in 3 Irish starts last year, but he has looked a really promising horse since coming over to Britain to be trained by Chris Barber. Given the 1st win on New Yeas Eve came just over a month after the last Irish start it really has been a swift transformation. He still looked a bit green when winning his maiden by 20L, but he looked very streetwise in his other two wins. He beat Douglas Longbottom by 4L in the first of them and whilst I know that horse disappointed at Chepstow on Friday he is much better than he showed that night. He also beat another horse who ran in the Dunraven Bowl last week in the shape of Red Nika and he hammered him by 18L For a 5yo he is a superb jumper and if he brings the jumping ability he has shown in points to Cheltenham then that is going to be a very useful tool. All 3 runs have been at Larkhill so this is a bit of a different test and he has 2 furlongs further to go, but he looks very promising.   Verdict - A smaller field than usual, but still an interesting race. My initial thinking was that Iskandar Pecos would be a short price favourite and there might be some value in taking him on especially with Wolf Walker who has really impressed. The early market moves though has meant that Wolf Walker is shorter than he ought to be and Iskandar Pecos bigger than he ought to be so he has to be the bet. Confidence is high and this has been the long term target for him. The 5/4 mark he was put in was the right sort of price for me so he has to be the bet at the current prices. Wolf Walker could be very good, but he has to prove it under rules and whilst at the initial 4/1 that was factored into the price I can't say it is anymore so happy to leave him alone now. I respect Latenightrumble and Paper Mill can outrun his odds, but Another Furlough was the other one that interested me and he is a danger as well.   Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4)   5.45 Cooler Than Me - Won a match last April and did finish 2nd in the Exeter point to point bumper prior to that. This looks a big ask though.   Earl Of Desmond - On his 2nd to Its On The Line at Cork in April 22 he would have a massive chance, but on his pulled up effort on stable debut at Exeter behind Yippee Ki Yay he would have no chance. What is interesting was he was being very well backed at big prices prior to being a non runner at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. Henry Oliver has previous in landing a gamble in this sphere so he's one to be wary of.   Fil d'Ariane - Ran a couple of cracking races in the Military races at Sandown where he didn't really seem to quite stay. I thought the drop down in trip would suit at Stratford, but whilst he was able to get a fairly easy lead, he couldn't get well clear of the field and he dropped out quite easily in the end. He clearly has ability, but this is even further than the Sandown races and whilst the ground wont be quite as testing I find it hard to see him staying.   Haven't Time - Was running a very promising race on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January 22 until falling at the last. He wasn't seen again for a year and he ran in 3 hurdle races with little promise. He then returned to hunter chases and ran a perfectly respectable race when 5th at Taunton and he followed that up by beating Polish at Southwell a couple of weeks later. He then went to Exeter and he looked to be in with a good chance of at least finishing 2nd until he faded quite badly on the run-in and he ended up 3rd with Yippee Ki Yay getting up for 2nd. I guess the issue is if he is going to stay this trip given how badly he tired at Exeter, but at least the ground will be much better than it was that day.   Jetaway Joey - Another horse who the Eillis' have got from Olly Murphy's yard and after being beaten on his first start for them last year he then went onto win his other 2. The form is solid enough as well because he beat Kaproyale in the first of them at Charing. This year he has only had one start and it was a match where he beat another good horse in Clara Sorrento, although the stables horses always come on for their first run so the form might be a little suspect. Stable won this race last year though and he has to be respected.   Jeux d'Eau - Has progressed massively as the season has progressed. He started off the year with a couple of 3rds, but then he landed 3 on the bounce. The middle win at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday was in a decent time, but what was especially eye-catching was his win last time which came in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett which is over 3m2f. It was a good performance as he travelled well throughout the race and kept going when asked for his effort down the home straight. It was a huge personal best and my thinking is it all depends on if he can repeat that performance 2 weeks later on his first start under rules. Looksnowtlikebrian was a 2L 2nd and he was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last Friday, but this is a better race than that.   Polish - Ran no sort of race on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton, but a month later he ran a much better race when finishing a close 2nd to Haven't Time at Southwell. He helped make the running that day which was a change of tactics and that clearly suited him better than being held up at Wincanton. He's a solid horse, but he does find winning hard and whilst he has a chance I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   Terrierman - Pulled up at Stratford in March and has been well beaten in all 3 points this season.   What A Glance - Finished 2nd on all 3 starts this season, but the last two have been behind Deise Aba at Lockinge and then at Stratford and I think both of those efforts were very good. At Stratford he looked like he would appreciate stepping back up in trip as he got outpaced that day and he looks to be one of the leading contenders.   Yippee Ki Yay - Was a winner back in January in a point which was a good effort and then ran terribly on his next start finishing last of 4 at odds on. To go from that to 9 days later hammering his rivals at Exeter was some feat especially as the 2nd had shown very good form this season. It could be argued he was the only one to run his race, but in some ways he put in an even better effort 6 days later at the same venue. He didn't win, but he made a really bad mistake at the 9th and stumbled badly on landing. It helped that there was a long gap between that and the next fence helped, but he crept back into the race. Whilst he had no chance catching the winner I thought he did very well to even finish 2nd in the circumstances. Another with claims of winning this.   Verdict - This is usually a pretty poor race, but this year's renewal looks pretty strong with only a couple that you could completely rule out. The early moves were for Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eau, but they look short enough to me now. I think What A Glance is a huge price at double figure odds. Given I think Deise Aba has a big chance in the following race I think he has a really good chance of hitting the frame at least with this longer trip set to suit. I'm also going to cover Yippee Ki Yay as those two Exeter efforts look very good and Haven't Time who hopefully can see it out better on this better ground.   What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1)   6.20   Captain Tommy - Bizarrely struggled in 2 points this season and yet has won 2 hunter chases at Ludlow. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the first when only having to beat Shang Tang, but I thought he achieved more when beating Espior De Guye over 2m4f. His run at Aintree was decent enough as well finishing 9th 38L behind the winner. Connections have been waiting for better ground so will be hoping the rain stays away. Not sure he's going to be quite up to winning this, but should run well.   Deise Aba - Has beaten What A Glance in his last two runs at Lockinge and Stratford so if he wins in the previous race that will be a big form boost. I thought he jumped really well at Stratford and he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The fact he won round there over just under 3m shows he still has a touch of class because that shouldn't be his ideal circumstances as he was a strong stayer under rules and his last good run was over the cross country course last January when just being beaten. I'd have been tempted to have run him in the 4m contest, but this test should really suit as well and crucially he wont care what the weather does.   Premier Magic - Bolted up in this race last year having of course won at The Festival the time before. That race was pretty weak last year though and Rebel Dawn Rising is a non stayer at this trip so I don't think he achieved a great deal. This season I had concerns about how good he still was as his two pointing wins told us nothing and he duly ended up pulling up at The Festival. He ran OK until he weakened after 3 out, but I think it adds to my theory that he isn't as good as he was last season. Clearly though that win last March is the best form in the race so a win wouldn't be a shock, but I'm happy to take him on.   Quintin's Man - Won the Intermediate Final on this card last year with ease and that plus his win at Wincanton and 3rd in the Walrus made me think he had an outside squeak at The Festival. That didn't go well though as he ran no sort of race. I was surprised that Darren said the testing ground was to blame as he looked like a horse who needed testing ground to be at his best. I could forgive him that, but a couple of weeks ago he disappointed again at Flete Park when finishing 4th over 4m. The biggest concern though is he flashed his tail when he started to be ridden after 3 out. He did bounce back from a couple of lesser runs at the start of the season to win at Wincanton and that was only 10 days after the latter of those efforts. If he does bounce back then he has a chance.   Encounter A Giant - Was a well beaten 5th in this last year and can't see him doing any better in a stronger renewal.   Fairly Famous - Won the previous race on this card last year which is usually the weakest race on the card, but he clocked a good time in doing so and connections were talking him up as a Festival contender. The 2nd at Horseheath on his return was a decent enough effort as he ran like he needed it, the big problem though was the Wetherby effort where he looked to hate the testing conditions and barely travelled at all. To be fair given Sine Nomine won even if had been better ground I doubt he would have beaten her. A month later he went back pointing and had a very easy task, but he won with ease. That was on soft ground and he clearly handles soft ground so if it does rain it shouldn't matter as it isn't going to be anything like Wetherby. This should be the race we find out how good he is.   Life Me Up - No doubt at least one of his owners will be watching from Miami where this weekend's F1 GP is taking place, but Mrs Horner might be at Cheltenham to watch her horse. He looked very promising last season when he won on hunter chase debut at Newbury, but he then ran poorly in the Intermediate Final when pulling up. This season he was a fair 2nd on his return, but the Kimble effort where he beat Caryto Des Brosses was much more impressive albeit over 2m4f. This is the best race he's been in, but surely that ran here a year ago was too bad to be true and he is a player.   Definite Dilemma - Has no chance.   Ripper Roo - Another who should be outclassed.   Verdict - Really good race this and much more strength than last year. Premier Magic can win, but he is priced up purely on last seasons form and if you were basing it just on this seasons form then I'm not even sure you would make him favourite let alone the short price he is. Lift Me Up was put in at double figure odds which was too big, but even though last year's run was probably too bad to be true it still has to be factored in and he's the right price now. I'm going to have a tiny bet on Quitin's Man as I want him covered just in case he returns to form, but the two for me are Deise Aba and Fairly Famous. Deise Aba will hopefully get a form boost in the race prior and he looks to retain plenty of his old ability based on what he's been doing this season. Fairly Famous was so good last year that I want him onside as well as connections have been waiting for better ground with him and they finally get it.   Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1)   6.55 Regatta De Blanc - A perfect record in points having won 4/4 which includes a dead heat with Grace A Vous Enki in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill in February. That was the run after he won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton in a race which worked out very well with D'Jango and Bennys King 2nd and 3rd. I thought she would be good enough to win at Newbury, but Secret Investor was back to form and finishing 2nd to him is no disgrace. Her jumping let her down a bit and the form in behind has not worked out, but it could just be case of two good horses beaten some average ones. There is certainly no Secret Investor in this and she should be very hard to beat.   Chenery - Only has a rating of 103 under rules and hasn't looked in good points this season as she did last season where she won 3 on the bounce.    Daisy Yeats - Only one win in 15 starts in points and that was partly because she was the only finisher.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase she was 2nd in at Cork on her last start before going to join Bradley, but that form is still better than most of these so is a contender for 2nd.   Glancing Glory - N/R   Grenadine Save - Has struggled in hunter chases and points this season and likely to be the same here.   Harbour Queen - N/R   Wheres My Wonder - Another Luca Morgan runner who is still a maiden and has no chance.   Verdict - If Regatta De Blanc doesn't win this then it will be the biggest shock of the hunter chase season. She should win this with ease because the rest are a very moderate bunch. 2 of the possible rivals are out now as well so Dul Ar Aghaidh really does look the only possible horse who looks capable of even coming 2nd.   7.30 D'Jango - Had a hell of a season since joining current connections having finished a superb 2nd in the opening hunter chase of the season to Regatta De Blanc and then beating Tea Clipper at Warwick. I think he got bogged down in the mud at Warwick when 4th in the Walrus. The 4th at The Festival was of course much better and was a fantastic effort. The problem is his start a month later at Cotley where he was only 6th of 7 behind Master Templar and Shantou Flyer who reversed Cheltenham and Taunton form. He wouldn't be the first horse to disappoint after running a big race at the Festival and given he stays really well this race has looked the ideal race for him all season so it might be worth forgiving him that poor effort.   Gaboriot - Interesting that they chose this race over the other options he had today including Punchestown where I think he would have had a chance. He was running very well when he unseated at Canal Turn in the Aintree Foxhunters where he was one of my bets of course. I thought he looked really good when winning at Catterick back in March and whilst he is unproven over 4m if his bang in form trainers think he will stay then that is good enough to me. He is a leading contender.   Law Of Gold - Been one of the best hunter chases in Britain in recent years including winning this race really impressive last year. The year before he jumped terribly and it was amazing that he even got as close to beating Coup De Pinceau as he did. Last year was very different and he travelled superbly well, jumped well and came home to a very easy 16L success. He then went to Stratford and ran terribly in the big race. This season he had his usual slow start when finishing 2nd at Horseheath in January and he then won his next two including beating Fier Jaguen as mentioned earlier where he didn't look like winning until staying past him on the run-in. Nearly always runs his race and every chance he will hold onto his crown.   Young Buck - Ex Paul Nicholls and won a hunter chase at Newton Abbot over 3m2f a year ago. Didn't always jump well but won as easily as his form suggested he would. He's struggled a little bit for new connections in points this season. He was well beaten on his return and was then a 12L 3rd to Another Furlough. He won his next start, but was then only 5th in the same race D'Jango was 6th in and Master Templer won. He looks like he's regressed to me.   Ange Des Malberaux - Not been seen for over a year and was out of form then so impossible to fancy.   Cheltenham De Vaige - Seems to always run well at this meeting and nothing wrong with his 3rd in this race last year. That does mean he has 22L to make up on Law Of Gold though and on his first start since October I can't see him doing that.   Coup De Pinceau - Caused a huge shock when winning this at 100/1 in 2022, but he didn't win again until winning a point in March which was his 3rd of 4 starts this season. The win was over 3m4f so again proving his stamina, but last time back over 3m he looked like he was going to win until just before the last and he found nothing for pressure. As a former winner and proven stayer you have to respect him, but if Law Of Gold had jumped as well as he did last year he wouldn't have won so I'm happy enough to oppose.   Finding Freedom - Luca must be running the whole stable and like the others looks to have no chance.   Master Templar - Has been very prolific in points after moving to this yard a couple of years ago having won 10 of his 15 starts. He's a proven stayer having won over 3m6f last season and 3m4f in January in a good performance on his seasonal return. He was beaten in a match on his next start but by a decent horse and only by a short head right on the line. As highlighted above he had Young Buck and D'Jango behind him when winning last time and to stay on and beat Shantou Flyer highlights what a top effort that was. This race has been the target and he looks to having a leading chance.   Mitchouka - Did win on New Years Eve at Horseheath, but has struggled a bit otherwise. That said his best effort was when just failing to win over 3m6f in March so at least the trip wont be an issue.   Myth Buster - Was 3rd behind Premier Magic on this card last year when getting outpaced so going for this race seems a better option especially as he won over 4m last year by 30L. The problem for me though is he seems to have lost his way a little bit this season and didn't jump well on his only hunter chase run at Wincanton in February.   Perfect Pirate - Another one from the Luca Morgan yard who returned pointing after 1180 days off the track. Unlike his stablemates he has actually shown reasonable form this season and won last time at Paxford. He's still hard to fancy though in a race like this.   Pym - No doubt a name many will remember when he was running under rules mainly for Nicky Henderson a few years ago. He gave his jockey a first win when winning on his debut for current connections and actually clocked a faster time than Law Of Gold on the same card. That is probably a bit misleading though as they went a slow pace in that race and Law Of Gold's final circuit time was quicker. He followed up last month when again putting in a nice performance and he had Mitchouka in behind in 4th. Stamina for the trip is an unknown, but if he stays he could well be capable of running a decent race.   Dreaming Diamond - Pulled up at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and also impossible to fancy.   Verdict - This market was very different last night as Master Templar had been the one for money and had almost been backed into favourite, but he has been a big drifter this morning and is available at just as big a price as he opened up at. I am going to make him a bet now as he has won on softer conditions before. When Law Of Gold had drifted he was going to be the bet, but I think the rain is against him. He did win on soft 2 back, but he usually needs decent spring ground and whilst he could still win I don't think he is value anymore so I can't put him up as a bet. If Gaboriot stays then I think he will go very close to winning and I will cover D'Jango small as well because this has been the race I have had in mind for him all season. Hopefully he can bounce back from his run last time and if he does he will be a big player.   Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1)   8.05 Slievegar - Ran well in the Intermediate Final last year when finishing 2nd and just didn't seem to stay. He then went to Kelso and won a weak hunter chase in easy style. This year has not been so good as he has been put in his place in all 3 points he has run in. A return to this track over a shorter trip might help him find the form he showed last year, but going to struggle if it doesn't.   Espoir De Guye - Thought there was some promise on his hunter chase debut when he didn't stay behind D'Jango at Warwick and he backed that up by beating Famous Clermont at Wincanton. I thought he won on merit that day, but fair to say he disappointed when 1/2F to win at Ludlow a month later. Captain Tommy beat him that day and all 3 of those pieces of form could be boosted prior to this race. He wasn't great at Aintree though and I just wonder if this stiffer track might catch him out even at this trip.   Go On Chez - Non-Runner   Rebel Dawn Rising - Better than just 2 hunter chase wins suggest and to be fair he would have won a 3rd at Fakenham last Easter if he hadn't thrown Dale Peters over the last. He had issues at the last at Fakenham again on Gold Cup day, but at least he got over it this time and quickened up to win. I thought he ran a really good race on this card last year until his stamina gave out and if he can repeat that effort I think he's capable of going close. Key could be how he has come out of the run at Aintree where he was up there for a fair way before finishing last of the 10 to get round. He won't mind if they get a bit of rain.   Cat Tiger - Looks to have gone backwards based on his 3 runs this year. He ran out on his owner at Hereford and then was a well beaten 3rd to Bennys King at Leicester. At Aintree he unseated at the 7th which is obviously too early to know how he would have got on. If he did find his best form then he's got every chance of going close, but the evidence to me suggests he won't be good enough.   Cooldine Bog - He certainly won't be good enough.   Dalahast - Has got a plenty to find with Espoir De Guye on his Ludlow 4th and he's never looked like winning a hunter chase yet.   Game Of War - Pulled up behind Espoir De Guye at Wincanton and even the jockey change to Darren Andrews shouldn't bring about enough improvement for him to get competitive in this.   Imperial Esprit - 15L 4th to Yccs Portocervo at Kempton last week and would have to improve on that to do any better here.   Mix Of Clover - Failed to complete in his first 3 points where he unseated twice and ran out the 3rd time. Did manage to finish at Kimble last time, but he was 36L behind Lift Me Up and that along with hos old rules form suggest he will struggle here.   Royal Act - Rated just 69 and was well beaten in a point a couple of weeks ago.   Solomon Grey - Won a hot renewal of this race in 2022 and was also a very good 3rd in it last year. That win in 2022 was the last time he got his head in front, but he's run some very creditable races since then. He's just had the 2 runs this season and although he was 4/7 at Larkhill on his return he always needs his first run of the season so the 3rd there wasn't a terrible effort. He was well backed ahead of the Stratford run la couple of weeks ago and was 3rd again not beaten that far by Deise Aba. With the first 2 home running earlier on in the card he could get a form boost ahead of this. I would also imagine he will improve for the run again which is what happened in this race last year when he ran a few days before this contest.   Tekap - Showed a bit of ability in points the last couple of seasons and was in the lead for a long way in the Intermediate Final last year before not staying and pulling up. This year he has pulled up in all 3 starts including at Wincanton behind Espoir De Guye on his last start.   The Composeur - Time wasn't anything special, but he was a visually impressive winner on his seasonal return at Cocklebarrow in January. Was backed into 2/1 at Garthorpe the following month, but dropped away to finish a well beaten 5th. A BHA mark of 99 sums up how much he has to find with the leading contenders.   Verdict - This race often ends up being the most competitive race on the card, but not this year as very few have realistic claims of winning. As soon as I saw the going I knew Go On Chez was going to come out and so he has. I was going to take him on anyway with Rebel Dawn Rising. This is the race on the card for him as he didn't stay over 3m2f last year and as long as he is over the Aintree effort which was good for a long way, then he is the one to beat. I was going to add Solomon Grey, but he needs good ground and I fear the rain has done for him. He should come on for the run at Stratford though and the form might well have been boosted earlier in the evening, but for the moment I will leave him alone after the rain.   Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   5.25 Punchestown I think Its On The Line will win again this year. He's clearly the best hunter chaser in Ireland and obviously he wasn't beaten far by Sine Nomine at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip he should be able to sit closer to the pace than he could at Aintree and whilst he no doubt will race lazily he just keeps finding for Derek's urgings. He's so tough that I'm not too worried about him doing all 3 Festivals and he does remind me a lot of On The Fringe.    There has been money for Lifetime Ambition and he had a rating of 158 in last year's Grand National. He's not up to that sort of level now, but clearly can still run to a decent mark and he bolted up over 2m4f at Cork on Easter Monday in what was a fairly weak race. He is a danger, but needs Its On The Line to run below par for me.   I can't have Famous Clermont on what he has done this season although James King being able to claim 3lbs in Ireland is a little plus for him although given he is a hard ride maybe the fact Will, who knows him so well, isn't ideal. He missed Aintree because of the ground so does come here fresh, but he needs to get back to last year's form to have any sort of chance.   Ferns Lock is interesting because I do think he will stay 3m round here so I don't think the trip is the problem it was at Cheltenham. He went nuts there though. He looked on edge coming down the walkway to the track and then as soon as the hood came off he lost the plot and any chance of him winning disappeared. Running him at Fairyhouse was crazy although to be fair I was shocked he was beaten by Boss Robin. He's had a month off since and if he can keep a lid on things he does have the ability to win this. I don't know too much about his jockey, but he performed a hell of a recovery in the La Touche Cup yesterday and he looks more than capable.   Billaway will no doubt run his usual solid race although he only got to the 4th last year when he unseated. He was 5th at Cheltenham though and it was a sign that he isn't quite at the level he was. Vaucelet has been 2nd in this for the last 2 years and maybe some spring ground will see an improvement, but he looks to have gone based on his form earlier in the season. We also know that he isn't as good as Ferns Lock if that one has is mind on the job, let alone being able to reverse form with Its On The Line. I suspect Boss Robin was flattered by his win over Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse and Samcro is the big price he should be.   So all in all Its On The Line rates a fairly strong bet, but I will also cover Ferns Lock because the ability is there and the price is big enough.   Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

I've covered every horse running at Cheltenham and the leading contenders in the big race at Punchestown. The going is now soft at Cheltenham after they watered and then it rained. All prices are from around 9am this morning    4.35 Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1) 5.10
Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4) 5.45 What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1) 6.20 Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1) 6.55 No bet 7.30
Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1) 8.05
Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   Punchestown
Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1   4.35 Caryto Des Brosses - Probably not quite as good as he once was which is no surprise given he is now 12. Was a solid 2nd in this race last year to Fier Jaguen and on these terms he could reverse that form. Ran against him on his seasonal debut at Garthorpe when he was 11L behind him this time, but he always needs his first run of the season. Was 2nd again over 2m4f at Kimble to Lift Me Up who had also beaten him at Newbury last season. That was another solid performance and he was back to winning ways at Garthorpe 2 weeks ago. Nearly always runs his race and should go close.   Fier Jaguen - You may remember that I was a huge fan of this horse last season and put him up as a strong bet at Aintree, but his right handed jumping got in the way and he unseated Bradley. He then went to this race and I put him up as a max bet and whilst things are never going to be easy because of his right handed jumping he was always holding Caryto Des Brosses to have a fairly comfortable success. He won his first two races this season, but I was not impressed with him at all at Didmarton and I didn't think he was in as good form as he was last year. I was going to oppose him if he went to Aintree, but he was taken out at the 6 day stage and instead he went to High Easter where he was sent off 2/5 to beat Law Of Gold. He made the running as usual and jumped out to his right as usual, but looked the winner for most of the way and it was only in the closing stages that Law Of Gold got the better of him. There is no real disgrace by that though because he is a top class pointer/hunter chaser himself and it was probably his best run of the season. Still not sure he's quite in the same form as last year and obviously he is going to jump out to his right, but he still could win.   A Jet Of Our Own - Ridden by the owners son who has only had two rides under rules before both over hurdles. It took the horse a while to get his head in front, but once he won at Maisemore last March and then went onto land a hat-trick. He won those 3 races by 25L, 40L and 50L. He's had a solid season this time around winning 2 of his 6 races including at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks ago. That was a decent effort and saw his point rating go up 6lbs. He has been a beaten favourite twice this season though. He has led, as he did last time, but he has also been held up so hard to know what to expect on that front. The jockey's inexperience is going to be an issue and his form isn't yet at the level of Fier Jaguen or Caryto Des Brosses, but he might be capable of a top 3 finish.   Bigforyourboots - Must admit I can't quite understand why he's running in this. He ran in a bumper at Doncaster in January and was always well behind. He then ran in 2 points finishing 6th and then he pulled up on Easter Monday. He is trained by former jockey Luca Morgan and he's been ridden by good jockeys in both point starts and did go off 3/1 fav in the first of them. He hasn't looked to stay 2m4f in the two point runs so 2m out to suit, but I don't see how he can get anywhere near the best horses in this.   Fine Investment - Was 2nd to Exeter bumper winner Prophesea at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago who was following up the Exeter win at Flete Park. Fine Investment was in front until the final 50 yards so it was a decent effort. The 3rd at Leicester behind Iskandar Pecos the time before hinted at a little promise as well, but 2m on better ground didn't look to be what he needs.   Funky Sensation - I thought he ran a really good race in the final race on this card a year ago when he led and ended up being only beaten 12.5L by Paloma Blue. That was a strong race and he clearly has ability. His 2 hunter chase runs this season weren't bad either although he was a strange gamble at Exeter last time given he's never looked like he stays 3m and again he failed to stay when finishing 4th. 2m round here should be ideal for him although if they want to front run on him he is going to be doing well to be in front of Fier Jaguen, but given the run he put in on this card last year I wouldn't be surprised if he outran his odds.   Rewritetherules - Has sometimes run well in hunter chases, but the jockey switch didn't help him at all at Kempton last time and he pulled up in this race last year so hard to see him getting involved.   Whatchagotder - Luca Morgan also trains this one and again its hard to give him much of a chance as he is still a maiden after 7 starts here and in Ireland.   Missed Tee - Was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although it probably didn't help her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise here than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. 2m round here on good ground could be exactly what she needs, but the presence of Fier Jaguen might not help her.   Verdict - This race was very easy for me last year as I couldn't see Fier Jaguen getting beat, but I just don't think he's in quite the same form as last season. The yard have been much quieter this season compared to last season which might have something to do with it. Yes he has been winning, but he hasn't been as impressive and whereas he got away with some massively right-handed jumping last year I'm not sure he will this time around. Maybe after the race I will regret not sticking with him at odds against, but we shall see. It will be interesting what happens up front as well and the race could set up nicely for Caryto Des Brosses to close from behind and pick up the pieces of the strong pace. Missed Tee looks like dropping back to this trip is what she needs and she gets 15lbs from Fier Jaguen and she is worth backing e/w with 3 places on offer. I'd love to include Funky Sensation somehow because this trip is what he needs as well, but even so he's still going to find it hard to win.    Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1)   5.10 Another Furlough - He has looked very progressive this season as he has won 3 out of his 4 starts. The one time he got beat he was a 4L 3rd to Yippee Ki Yay which does give us a hunter chase reference to work on. The form comment said that he was given too much to do and having watched the race I would agree with that. He is always held up in his races, but his jockey overdid the tactics that day and as it turns out he was trying to catch a decent horse. The other issue is that is a right handed track and he jumps to his left so he was forfeiting a fair bit of ground at each fence. He has jumped left handed at left handed tracks as well although of course it is more helpful at those venues. He clocked a decent time when he won in February and then he beat Duc De Bourbon the following month and was value for more than the 4L margin as he was eased down. He looks promising.   Coolagh Park - Was only a length 2nd to Iskandar Pecos at Horseheath on New Years Eve which would give him a chance, but fair to say that one has improved massively since and he's been beaten twice and then won at 4/11 in between. So overall he has a bit too find.   Iskandar Pecos - Has improved massively over the season as often happens with horses from this yard and went very close to winning the Walrus at Haydock in February. 10 days later he had a very easy task at Leicester and then should have had a fairly easy task at Ludlow. However it didn't turn out like that as it needed the ride of the season from Huw to get him home and beat Before Midnight on the run-in. He raced very lazily and didn't jump that well either. Before Midnight set quite a decent pace and I think he was just struggling to keep up over that trip. 3m2f round Cheltenham is obviously a new test, but he sets a clear standard on form.   Latenightrumble - 2019 the winner was Latenightpass, 2022 the winner was Latenightfumble so will we see the hat-trick of relations win this race? Well he certainly has a chance. He was set to win on his seasonal return when he unseated at the last. He then won easily the following month although he beat Red Opium who was only 4th at Kelso last month so it isn't strong form. He then ran way below par when 4th at 4/5 before winning on Easter Monday at 1/4. Fair to say he hasn't achieved as strong form as a few of these, but it would be daft to write him off.   Minella Job - Been stuffed twice by Another Furlough so that along with his 3rd at Exeter a couple of weeks ago suggest he will struggle here.   Olly Norse - 2nd to Deise Aba on his return on New Years Eve wasn't a bad effort and then he was 2nd again 11L behind Paper Mill at Garthorpe. That suggests he is going to struggle here.   Padjoes Legacy - I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Gina rides him and not their horse as Jack always rides Latenightrumble. Was struggling earlier in the season, but things clicked at Kimble on Easter Saturday when winning in a decent time. He won again a couple of weeks later although it was only a match. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough.   Paper Mill - Easily beat Olly Norse at Garthorpe on his last start in February and he still looked green after he went clear suggesting there is more to come. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect which would be a small concern here. That was his 2nd win of the season after he won his only other start in January. I certainly wouldn't under estimate his chances, but I just wonder if he's going to be streetwise enough to win this.   Wolf Walker - Didn't really show a great deal in 3 Irish starts last year, but he has looked a really promising horse since coming over to Britain to be trained by Chris Barber. Given the 1st win on New Yeas Eve came just over a month after the last Irish start it really has been a swift transformation. He still looked a bit green when winning his maiden by 20L, but he looked very streetwise in his other two wins. He beat Douglas Longbottom by 4L in the first of them and whilst I know that horse disappointed at Chepstow on Friday he is much better than he showed that night. He also beat another horse who ran in the Dunraven Bowl last week in the shape of Red Nika and he hammered him by 18L For a 5yo he is a superb jumper and if he brings the jumping ability he has shown in points to Cheltenham then that is going to be a very useful tool. All 3 runs have been at Larkhill so this is a bit of a different test and he has 2 furlongs further to go, but he looks very promising.   Verdict - A smaller field than usual, but still an interesting race. My initial thinking was that Iskandar Pecos would be a short price favourite and there might be some value in taking him on especially with Wolf Walker who has really impressed. The early market moves though has meant that Wolf Walker is shorter than he ought to be and Iskandar Pecos bigger than he ought to be so he has to be the bet. Confidence is high and this has been the long term target for him. The 5/4 mark he was put in was the right sort of price for me so he has to be the bet at the current prices. Wolf Walker could be very good, but he has to prove it under rules and whilst at the initial 4/1 that was factored into the price I can't say it is anymore so happy to leave him alone now. I respect Latenightrumble and Paper Mill can outrun his odds, but Another Furlough was the other one that interested me and he is a danger as well.   Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4)   5.45 Cooler Than Me - Won a match last April and did finish 2nd in the Exeter point to point bumper prior to that. This looks a big ask though.   Earl Of Desmond - On his 2nd to Its On The Line at Cork in April 22 he would have a massive chance, but on his pulled up effort on stable debut at Exeter behind Yippee Ki Yay he would have no chance. What is interesting was he was being very well backed at big prices prior to being a non runner at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. Henry Oliver has previous in landing a gamble in this sphere so he's one to be wary of.   Fil d'Ariane - Ran a couple of cracking races in the Military races at Sandown where he didn't really seem to quite stay. I thought the drop down in trip would suit at Stratford, but whilst he was able to get a fairly easy lead, he couldn't get well clear of the field and he dropped out quite easily in the end. He clearly has ability, but this is even further than the Sandown races and whilst the ground wont be quite as testing I find it hard to see him staying.   Haven't Time - Was running a very promising race on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January 22 until falling at the last. He wasn't seen again for a year and he ran in 3 hurdle races with little promise. He then returned to hunter chases and ran a perfectly respectable race when 5th at Taunton and he followed that up by beating Polish at Southwell a couple of weeks later. He then went to Exeter and he looked to be in with a good chance of at least finishing 2nd until he faded quite badly on the run-in and he ended up 3rd with Yippee Ki Yay getting up for 2nd. I guess the issue is if he is going to stay this trip given how badly he tired at Exeter, but at least the ground will be much better than it was that day.   Jetaway Joey - Another horse who the Eillis' have got from Olly Murphy's yard and after being beaten on his first start for them last year he then went onto win his other 2. The form is solid enough as well because he beat Kaproyale in the first of them at Charing. This year he has only had one start and it was a match where he beat another good horse in Clara Sorrento, although the stables horses always come on for their first run so the form might be a little suspect. Stable won this race last year though and he has to be respected.   Jeux d'Eau - Has progressed massively as the season has progressed. He started off the year with a couple of 3rds, but then he landed 3 on the bounce. The middle win at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday was in a decent time, but what was especially eye-catching was his win last time which came in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett which is over 3m2f. It was a good performance as he travelled well throughout the race and kept going when asked for his effort down the home straight. It was a huge personal best and my thinking is it all depends on if he can repeat that performance 2 weeks later on his first start under rules. Looksnowtlikebrian was a 2L 2nd and he was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last Friday, but this is a better race than that.   Polish - Ran no sort of race on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton, but a month later he ran a much better race when finishing a close 2nd to Haven't Time at Southwell. He helped make the running that day which was a change of tactics and that clearly suited him better than being held up at Wincanton. He's a solid horse, but he does find winning hard and whilst he has a chance I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   Terrierman - Pulled up at Stratford in March and has been well beaten in all 3 points this season.   What A Glance - Finished 2nd on all 3 starts this season, but the last two have been behind Deise Aba at Lockinge and then at Stratford and I think both of those efforts were very good. At Stratford he looked like he would appreciate stepping back up in trip as he got outpaced that day and he looks to be one of the leading contenders.   Yippee Ki Yay - Was a winner back in January in a point which was a good effort and then ran terribly on his next start finishing last of 4 at odds on. To go from that to 9 days later hammering his rivals at Exeter was some feat especially as the 2nd had shown very good form this season. It could be argued he was the only one to run his race, but in some ways he put in an even better effort 6 days later at the same venue. He didn't win, but he made a really bad mistake at the 9th and stumbled badly on landing. It helped that there was a long gap between that and the next fence helped, but he crept back into the race. Whilst he had no chance catching the winner I thought he did very well to even finish 2nd in the circumstances. Another with claims of winning this.   Verdict - This is usually a pretty poor race, but this year's renewal looks pretty strong with only a couple that you could completely rule out. The early moves were for Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eau, but they look short enough to me now. I think What A Glance is a huge price at double figure odds. Given I think Deise Aba has a big chance in the following race I think he has a really good chance of hitting the frame at least with this longer trip set to suit. I'm also going to cover Yippee Ki Yay as those two Exeter efforts look very good and Haven't Time who hopefully can see it out better on this better ground.   What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1)   6.20   Captain Tommy - Bizarrely struggled in 2 points this season and yet has won 2 hunter chases at Ludlow. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the first when only having to beat Shang Tang, but I thought he achieved more when beating Espior De Guye over 2m4f. His run at Aintree was decent enough as well finishing 9th 38L behind the winner. Connections have been waiting for better ground so will be hoping the rain stays away. Not sure he's going to be quite up to winning this, but should run well.   Deise Aba - Has beaten What A Glance in his last two runs at Lockinge and Stratford so if he wins in the previous race that will be a big form boost. I thought he jumped really well at Stratford and he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The fact he won round there over just under 3m shows he still has a touch of class because that shouldn't be his ideal circumstances as he was a strong stayer under rules and his last good run was over the cross country course last January when just being beaten. I'd have been tempted to have run him in the 4m contest, but this test should really suit as well and crucially he wont care what the weather does.   Premier Magic - Bolted up in this race last year having of course won at The Festival the time before. That race was pretty weak last year though and Rebel Dawn Rising is a non stayer at this trip so I don't think he achieved a great deal. This season I had concerns about how good he still was as his two pointing wins told us nothing and he duly ended up pulling up at The Festival. He ran OK until he weakened after 3 out, but I think it adds to my theory that he isn't as good as he was last season. Clearly though that win last March is the best form in the race so a win wouldn't be a shock, but I'm happy to take him on.   Quintin's Man - Won the Intermediate Final on this card last year with ease and that plus his win at Wincanton and 3rd in the Walrus made me think he had an outside squeak at The Festival. That didn't go well though as he ran no sort of race. I was surprised that Darren said the testing ground was to blame as he looked like a horse who needed testing ground to be at his best. I could forgive him that, but a couple of weeks ago he disappointed again at Flete Park when finishing 4th over 4m. The biggest concern though is he flashed his tail when he started to be ridden after 3 out. He did bounce back from a couple of lesser runs at the start of the season to win at Wincanton and that was only 10 days after the latter of those efforts. If he does bounce back then he has a chance.   Encounter A Giant - Was a well beaten 5th in this last year and can't see him doing any better in a stronger renewal.   Fairly Famous - Won the previous race on this card last year which is usually the weakest race on the card, but he clocked a good time in doing so and connections were talking him up as a Festival contender. The 2nd at Horseheath on his return was a decent enough effort as he ran like he needed it, the big problem though was the Wetherby effort where he looked to hate the testing conditions and barely travelled at all. To be fair given Sine Nomine won even if had been better ground I doubt he would have beaten her. A month later he went back pointing and had a very easy task, but he won with ease. That was on soft ground and he clearly handles soft ground so if it does rain it shouldn't matter as it isn't going to be anything like Wetherby. This should be the race we find out how good he is.   Life Me Up - No doubt at least one of his owners will be watching from Miami where this weekend's F1 GP is taking place, but Mrs Horner might be at Cheltenham to watch her horse. He looked very promising last season when he won on hunter chase debut at Newbury, but he then ran poorly in the Intermediate Final when pulling up. This season he was a fair 2nd on his return, but the Kimble effort where he beat Caryto Des Brosses was much more impressive albeit over 2m4f. This is the best race he's been in, but surely that ran here a year ago was too bad to be true and he is a player.   Definite Dilemma - Has no chance.   Ripper Roo - Another who should be outclassed.   Verdict - Really good race this and much more strength than last year. Premier Magic can win, but he is priced up purely on last seasons form and if you were basing it just on this seasons form then I'm not even sure you would make him favourite let alone the short price he is. Lift Me Up was put in at double figure odds which was too big, but even though last year's run was probably too bad to be true it still has to be factored in and he's the right price now. I'm going to have a tiny bet on Quitin's Man as I want him covered just in case he returns to form, but the two for me are Deise Aba and Fairly Famous. Deise Aba will hopefully get a form boost in the race prior and he looks to retain plenty of his old ability based on what he's been doing this season. Fairly Famous was so good last year that I want him onside as well as connections have been waiting for better ground with him and they finally get it.   Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1)   6.55 Regatta De Blanc - A perfect record in points having won 4/4 which includes a dead heat with Grace A Vous Enki in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill in February. That was the run after he won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton in a race which worked out very well with D'Jango and Bennys King 2nd and 3rd. I thought she would be good enough to win at Newbury, but Secret Investor was back to form and finishing 2nd to him is no disgrace. Her jumping let her down a bit and the form in behind has not worked out, but it could just be case of two good horses beaten some average ones. There is certainly no Secret Investor in this and she should be very hard to beat.   Chenery - Only has a rating of 103 under rules and hasn't looked in good points this season as she did last season where she won 3 on the bounce.    Daisy Yeats - Only one win in 15 starts in points and that was partly because she was the only finisher.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase she was 2nd in at Cork on her last start before going to join Bradley, but that form is still better than most of these so is a contender for 2nd.   Glancing Glory - N/R   Grenadine Save - Has struggled in hunter chases and points this season and likely to be the same here.   Harbour Queen - N/R   Wheres My Wonder - Another Luca Morgan runner who is still a maiden and has no chance.   Verdict - If Regatta De Blanc doesn't win this then it will be the biggest shock of the hunter chase season. She should win this with ease because the rest are a very moderate bunch. 2 of the possible rivals are out now as well so Dul Ar Aghaidh really does look the only possible horse who looks capable of even coming 2nd.   7.30 D'Jango - Had a hell of a season since joining current connections having finished a superb 2nd in the opening hunter chase of the season to Regatta De Blanc and then beating Tea Clipper at Warwick. I think he got bogged down in the mud at Warwick when 4th in the Walrus. The 4th at The Festival was of course much better and was a fantastic effort. The problem is his start a month later at Cotley where he was only 6th of 7 behind Master Templar and Shantou Flyer who reversed Cheltenham and Taunton form. He wouldn't be the first horse to disappoint after running a big race at the Festival and given he stays really well this race has looked the ideal race for him all season so it might be worth forgiving him that poor effort.   Gaboriot - Interesting that they chose this race over the other options he had today including Punchestown where I think he would have had a chance. He was running very well when he unseated at Canal Turn in the Aintree Foxhunters where he was one of my bets of course. I thought he looked really good when winning at Catterick back in March and whilst he is unproven over 4m if his bang in form trainers think he will stay then that is good enough to me. He is a leading contender.   Law Of Gold - Been one of the best hunter chases in Britain in recent years including winning this race really impressive last year. The year before he jumped terribly and it was amazing that he even got as close to beating Coup De Pinceau as he did. Last year was very different and he travelled superbly well, jumped well and came home to a very easy 16L success. He then went to Stratford and ran terribly in the big race. This season he had his usual slow start when finishing 2nd at Horseheath in January and he then won his next two including beating Fier Jaguen as mentioned earlier where he didn't look like winning until staying past him on the run-in. Nearly always runs his race and every chance he will hold onto his crown.   Young Buck - Ex Paul Nicholls and won a hunter chase at Newton Abbot over 3m2f a year ago. Didn't always jump well but won as easily as his form suggested he would. He's struggled a little bit for new connections in points this season. He was well beaten on his return and was then a 12L 3rd to Another Furlough. He won his next start, but was then only 5th in the same race D'Jango was 6th in and Master Templer won. He looks like he's regressed to me.   Ange Des Malberaux - Not been seen for over a year and was out of form then so impossible to fancy.   Cheltenham De Vaige - Seems to always run well at this meeting and nothing wrong with his 3rd in this race last year. That does mean he has 22L to make up on Law Of Gold though and on his first start since October I can't see him doing that.   Coup De Pinceau - Caused a huge shock when winning this at 100/1 in 2022, but he didn't win again until winning a point in March which was his 3rd of 4 starts this season. The win was over 3m4f so again proving his stamina, but last time back over 3m he looked like he was going to win until just before the last and he found nothing for pressure. As a former winner and proven stayer you have to respect him, but if Law Of Gold had jumped as well as he did last year he wouldn't have won so I'm happy enough to oppose.   Finding Freedom - Luca must be running the whole stable and like the others looks to have no chance.   Master Templar - Has been very prolific in points after moving to this yard a couple of years ago having won 10 of his 15 starts. He's a proven stayer having won over 3m6f last season and 3m4f in January in a good performance on his seasonal return. He was beaten in a match on his next start but by a decent horse and only by a short head right on the line. As highlighted above he had Young Buck and D'Jango behind him when winning last time and to stay on and beat Shantou Flyer highlights what a top effort that was. This race has been the target and he looks to having a leading chance.   Mitchouka - Did win on New Years Eve at Horseheath, but has struggled a bit otherwise. That said his best effort was when just failing to win over 3m6f in March so at least the trip wont be an issue.   Myth Buster - Was 3rd behind Premier Magic on this card last year when getting outpaced so going for this race seems a better option especially as he won over 4m last year by 30L. The problem for me though is he seems to have lost his way a little bit this season and didn't jump well on his only hunter chase run at Wincanton in February.   Perfect Pirate - Another one from the Luca Morgan yard who returned pointing after 1180 days off the track. Unlike his stablemates he has actually shown reasonable form this season and won last time at Paxford. He's still hard to fancy though in a race like this.   Pym - No doubt a name many will remember when he was running under rules mainly for Nicky Henderson a few years ago. He gave his jockey a first win when winning on his debut for current connections and actually clocked a faster time than Law Of Gold on the same card. That is probably a bit misleading though as they went a slow pace in that race and Law Of Gold's final circuit time was quicker. He followed up last month when again putting in a nice performance and he had Mitchouka in behind in 4th. Stamina for the trip is an unknown, but if he stays he could well be capable of running a decent race.   Dreaming Diamond - Pulled up at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and also impossible to fancy.   Verdict - This market was very different last night as Master Templar had been the one for money and had almost been backed into favourite, but he has been a big drifter this morning and is available at just as big a price as he opened up at. I am going to make him a bet now as he has won on softer conditions before. When Law Of Gold had drifted he was going to be the bet, but I think the rain is against him. He did win on soft 2 back, but he usually needs decent spring ground and whilst he could still win I don't think he is value anymore so I can't put him up as a bet. If Gaboriot stays then I think he will go very close to winning and I will cover D'Jango small as well because this has been the race I have had in mind for him all season. Hopefully he can bounce back from his run last time and if he does he will be a big player.   Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1)   8.05 Slievegar - Ran well in the Intermediate Final last year when finishing 2nd and just didn't seem to stay. He then went to Kelso and won a weak hunter chase in easy style. This year has not been so good as he has been put in his place in all 3 points he has run in. A return to this track over a shorter trip might help him find the form he showed last year, but going to struggle if it doesn't.   Espoir De Guye - Thought there was some promise on his hunter chase debut when he didn't stay behind D'Jango at Warwick and he backed that up by beating Famous Clermont at Wincanton. I thought he won on merit that day, but fair to say he disappointed when 1/2F to win at Ludlow a month later. Captain Tommy beat him that day and all 3 of those pieces of form could be boosted prior to this race. He wasn't great at Aintree though and I just wonder if this stiffer track might catch him out even at this trip.   Go On Chez - Non-Runner   Rebel Dawn Rising - Better than just 2 hunter chase wins suggest and to be fair he would have won a 3rd at Fakenham last Easter if he hadn't thrown Dale Peters over the last. He had issues at the last at Fakenham again on Gold Cup day, but at least he got over it this time and quickened up to win. I thought he ran a really good race on this card last year until his stamina gave out and if he can repeat that effort I think he's capable of going close. Key could be how he has come out of the run at Aintree where he was up there for a fair way before finishing last of the 10 to get round. He won't mind if they get a bit of rain.   Cat Tiger - Looks to have gone backwards based on his 3 runs this year. He ran out on his owner at Hereford and then was a well beaten 3rd to Bennys King at Leicester. At Aintree he unseated at the 7th which is obviously too early to know how he would have got on. If he did find his best form then he's got every chance of going close, but the evidence to me suggests he won't be good enough.   Cooldine Bog - He certainly won't be good enough.   Dalahast - Has got a plenty to find with Espoir De Guye on his Ludlow 4th and he's never looked like winning a hunter chase yet.   Game Of War - Pulled up behind Espoir De Guye at Wincanton and even the jockey change to Darren Andrews shouldn't bring about enough improvement for him to get competitive in this.   Imperial Esprit - 15L 4th to Yccs Portocervo at Kempton last week and would have to improve on that to do any better here.   Mix Of Clover - Failed to complete in his first 3 points where he unseated twice and ran out the 3rd time. Did manage to finish at Kimble last time, but he was 36L behind Lift Me Up and that along with hos old rules form suggest he will struggle here.   Royal Act - Rated just 69 and was well beaten in a point a couple of weeks ago.   Solomon Grey - Won a hot renewal of this race in 2022 and was also a very good 3rd in it last year. That win in 2022 was the last time he got his head in front, but he's run some very creditable races since then. He's just had the 2 runs this season and although he was 4/7 at Larkhill on his return he always needs his first run of the season so the 3rd there wasn't a terrible effort. He was well backed ahead of the Stratford run la couple of weeks ago and was 3rd again not beaten that far by Deise Aba. With the first 2 home running earlier on in the card he could get a form boost ahead of this. I would also imagine he will improve for the run again which is what happened in this race last year when he ran a few days before this contest.   Tekap - Showed a bit of ability in points the last couple of seasons and was in the lead for a long way in the Intermediate Final last year before not staying and pulling up. This year he has pulled up in all 3 starts including at Wincanton behind Espoir De Guye on his last start.   The Composeur - Time wasn't anything special, but he was a visually impressive winner on his seasonal return at Cocklebarrow in January. Was backed into 2/1 at Garthorpe the following month, but dropped away to finish a well beaten 5th. A BHA mark of 99 sums up how much he has to find with the leading contenders.   Verdict - This race often ends up being the most competitive race on the card, but not this year as very few have realistic claims of winning. As soon as I saw the going I knew Go On Chez was going to come out and so he has. I was going to take him on anyway with Rebel Dawn Rising. This is the race on the card for him as he didn't stay over 3m2f last year and as long as he is over the Aintree effort which was good for a long way, then he is the one to beat. I was going to add Solomon Grey, but he needs good ground and I fear the rain has done for him. He should come on for the run at Stratford though and the form might well have been boosted earlier in the evening, but for the moment I will leave him alone after the rain.   Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   5.25 Punchestown I think Its On The Line will win again this year. He's clearly the best hunter chaser in Ireland and obviously he wasn't beaten far by Sine Nomine at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip he should be able to sit closer to the pace than he could at Aintree and whilst he no doubt will race lazily he just keeps finding for Derek's urgings. He's so tough that I'm not too worried about him doing all 3 Festivals and he does remind me a lot of On The Fringe.    There has been money for Lifetime Ambition and he had a rating of 158 in last year's Grand National. He's not up to that sort of level now, but clearly can still run to a decent mark and he bolted up over 2m4f at Cork on Easter Monday in what was a fairly weak race. He is a danger, but needs Its On The Line to run below par for me.   I can't have Famous Clermont on what he has done this season although James King being able to claim 3lbs in Ireland is a little plus for him although given he is a hard ride maybe the fact Will, who knows him so well, isn't ideal. He missed Aintree because of the ground so does come here fresh, but he needs to get back to last year's form to have any sort of chance.   Ferns Lock is interesting because I do think he will stay 3m round here so I don't think the trip is the problem it was at Cheltenham. He went nuts there though. He looked on edge coming down the walkway to the track and then as soon as the hood came off he lost the plot and any chance of him winning disappeared. Running him at Fairyhouse was crazy although to be fair I was shocked he was beaten by Boss Robin. He's had a month off since and if he can keep a lid on things he does have the ability to win this. I don't know too much about his jockey, but he performed a hell of a recovery in the La Touche Cup yesterday and he looks more than capable.   Billaway will no doubt run his usual solid race although he only got to the 4th last year when he unseated. He was 5th at Cheltenham though and it was a sign that he isn't quite at the level he was. Vaucelet has been 2nd in this for the last 2 years and maybe some spring ground will see an improvement, but he looks to have gone based on his form earlier in the season. We also know that he isn't as good as Ferns Lock if that one has is mind on the job, let alone being able to reverse form with Its On The Line. I suspect Boss Robin was flattered by his win over Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse and Samcro is the big price he should be.   So all in all Its On The Line rates a fairly strong bet, but I will also cover Ferns Lock because the ability is there and the price is big enough.   Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

So I don't clog up this thread I am going to post my Cheltenham/Punchestown preview on a separate one.

I've covered every horse running at Cheltenham and the leading contenders in the big race at Punchestown. The going is now soft at Cheltenham after they watered and then it rained. All prices are from around 9am this morning    4.35 Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1) 5.10
Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4) 5.45 What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1) 6.20 Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1) 6.55 No bet 7.30
Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1) 8.05
Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   Punchestown
Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1   4.35 Caryto Des Brosses - Probably not quite as good as he once was which is no surprise given he is now 12. Was a solid 2nd in this race last year to Fier Jaguen and on these terms he could reverse that form. Ran against him on his seasonal debut at Garthorpe when he was 11L behind him this time, but he always needs his first run of the season. Was 2nd again over 2m4f at Kimble to Lift Me Up who had also beaten him at Newbury last season. That was another solid performance and he was back to winning ways at Garthorpe 2 weeks ago. Nearly always runs his race and should go close.   Fier Jaguen - You may remember that I was a huge fan of this horse last season and put him up as a strong bet at Aintree, but his right handed jumping got in the way and he unseated Bradley. He then went to this race and I put him up as a max bet and whilst things are never going to be easy because of his right handed jumping he was always holding Caryto Des Brosses to have a fairly comfortable success. He won his first two races this season, but I was not impressed with him at all at Didmarton and I didn't think he was in as good form as he was last year. I was going to oppose him if he went to Aintree, but he was taken out at the 6 day stage and instead he went to High Easter where he was sent off 2/5 to beat Law Of Gold. He made the running as usual and jumped out to his right as usual, but looked the winner for most of the way and it was only in the closing stages that Law Of Gold got the better of him. There is no real disgrace by that though because he is a top class pointer/hunter chaser himself and it was probably his best run of the season. Still not sure he's quite in the same form as last year and obviously he is going to jump out to his right, but he still could win.   A Jet Of Our Own - Ridden by the owners son who has only had two rides under rules before both over hurdles. It took the horse a while to get his head in front, but once he won at Maisemore last March and then went onto land a hat-trick. He won those 3 races by 25L, 40L and 50L. He's had a solid season this time around winning 2 of his 6 races including at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks ago. That was a decent effort and saw his point rating go up 6lbs. He has been a beaten favourite twice this season though. He has led, as he did last time, but he has also been held up so hard to know what to expect on that front. The jockey's inexperience is going to be an issue and his form isn't yet at the level of Fier Jaguen or Caryto Des Brosses, but he might be capable of a top 3 finish.   Bigforyourboots - Must admit I can't quite understand why he's running in this. He ran in a bumper at Doncaster in January and was always well behind. He then ran in 2 points finishing 6th and then he pulled up on Easter Monday. He is trained by former jockey Luca Morgan and he's been ridden by good jockeys in both point starts and did go off 3/1 fav in the first of them. He hasn't looked to stay 2m4f in the two point runs so 2m out to suit, but I don't see how he can get anywhere near the best horses in this.   Fine Investment - Was 2nd to Exeter bumper winner Prophesea at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago who was following up the Exeter win at Flete Park. Fine Investment was in front until the final 50 yards so it was a decent effort. The 3rd at Leicester behind Iskandar Pecos the time before hinted at a little promise as well, but 2m on better ground didn't look to be what he needs.   Funky Sensation - I thought he ran a really good race in the final race on this card a year ago when he led and ended up being only beaten 12.5L by Paloma Blue. That was a strong race and he clearly has ability. His 2 hunter chase runs this season weren't bad either although he was a strange gamble at Exeter last time given he's never looked like he stays 3m and again he failed to stay when finishing 4th. 2m round here should be ideal for him although if they want to front run on him he is going to be doing well to be in front of Fier Jaguen, but given the run he put in on this card last year I wouldn't be surprised if he outran his odds.   Rewritetherules - Has sometimes run well in hunter chases, but the jockey switch didn't help him at all at Kempton last time and he pulled up in this race last year so hard to see him getting involved.   Whatchagotder - Luca Morgan also trains this one and again its hard to give him much of a chance as he is still a maiden after 7 starts here and in Ireland.   Missed Tee - Was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although it probably didn't help her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise here than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. 2m round here on good ground could be exactly what she needs, but the presence of Fier Jaguen might not help her.   Verdict - This race was very easy for me last year as I couldn't see Fier Jaguen getting beat, but I just don't think he's in quite the same form as last season. The yard have been much quieter this season compared to last season which might have something to do with it. Yes he has been winning, but he hasn't been as impressive and whereas he got away with some massively right-handed jumping last year I'm not sure he will this time around. Maybe after the race I will regret not sticking with him at odds against, but we shall see. It will be interesting what happens up front as well and the race could set up nicely for Caryto Des Brosses to close from behind and pick up the pieces of the strong pace. Missed Tee looks like dropping back to this trip is what she needs and she gets 15lbs from Fier Jaguen and she is worth backing e/w with 3 places on offer. I'd love to include Funky Sensation somehow because this trip is what he needs as well, but even so he's still going to find it hard to win.    Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1)   5.10 Another Furlough - He has looked very progressive this season as he has won 3 out of his 4 starts. The one time he got beat he was a 4L 3rd to Yippee Ki Yay which does give us a hunter chase reference to work on. The form comment said that he was given too much to do and having watched the race I would agree with that. He is always held up in his races, but his jockey overdid the tactics that day and as it turns out he was trying to catch a decent horse. The other issue is that is a right handed track and he jumps to his left so he was forfeiting a fair bit of ground at each fence. He has jumped left handed at left handed tracks as well although of course it is more helpful at those venues. He clocked a decent time when he won in February and then he beat Duc De Bourbon the following month and was value for more than the 4L margin as he was eased down. He looks promising.   Coolagh Park - Was only a length 2nd to Iskandar Pecos at Horseheath on New Years Eve which would give him a chance, but fair to say that one has improved massively since and he's been beaten twice and then won at 4/11 in between. So overall he has a bit too find.   Iskandar Pecos - Has improved massively over the season as often happens with horses from this yard and went very close to winning the Walrus at Haydock in February. 10 days later he had a very easy task at Leicester and then should have had a fairly easy task at Ludlow. However it didn't turn out like that as it needed the ride of the season from Huw to get him home and beat Before Midnight on the run-in. He raced very lazily and didn't jump that well either. Before Midnight set quite a decent pace and I think he was just struggling to keep up over that trip. 3m2f round Cheltenham is obviously a new test, but he sets a clear standard on form.   Latenightrumble - 2019 the winner was Latenightpass, 2022 the winner was Latenightfumble so will we see the hat-trick of relations win this race? Well he certainly has a chance. He was set to win on his seasonal return when he unseated at the last. He then won easily the following month although he beat Red Opium who was only 4th at Kelso last month so it isn't strong form. He then ran way below par when 4th at 4/5 before winning on Easter Monday at 1/4. Fair to say he hasn't achieved as strong form as a few of these, but it would be daft to write him off.   Minella Job - Been stuffed twice by Another Furlough so that along with his 3rd at Exeter a couple of weeks ago suggest he will struggle here.   Olly Norse - 2nd to Deise Aba on his return on New Years Eve wasn't a bad effort and then he was 2nd again 11L behind Paper Mill at Garthorpe. That suggests he is going to struggle here.   Padjoes Legacy - I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Gina rides him and not their horse as Jack always rides Latenightrumble. Was struggling earlier in the season, but things clicked at Kimble on Easter Saturday when winning in a decent time. He won again a couple of weeks later although it was only a match. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough.   Paper Mill - Easily beat Olly Norse at Garthorpe on his last start in February and he still looked green after he went clear suggesting there is more to come. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect which would be a small concern here. That was his 2nd win of the season after he won his only other start in January. I certainly wouldn't under estimate his chances, but I just wonder if he's going to be streetwise enough to win this.   Wolf Walker - Didn't really show a great deal in 3 Irish starts last year, but he has looked a really promising horse since coming over to Britain to be trained by Chris Barber. Given the 1st win on New Yeas Eve came just over a month after the last Irish start it really has been a swift transformation. He still looked a bit green when winning his maiden by 20L, but he looked very streetwise in his other two wins. He beat Douglas Longbottom by 4L in the first of them and whilst I know that horse disappointed at Chepstow on Friday he is much better than he showed that night. He also beat another horse who ran in the Dunraven Bowl last week in the shape of Red Nika and he hammered him by 18L For a 5yo he is a superb jumper and if he brings the jumping ability he has shown in points to Cheltenham then that is going to be a very useful tool. All 3 runs have been at Larkhill so this is a bit of a different test and he has 2 furlongs further to go, but he looks very promising.   Verdict - A smaller field than usual, but still an interesting race. My initial thinking was that Iskandar Pecos would be a short price favourite and there might be some value in taking him on especially with Wolf Walker who has really impressed. The early market moves though has meant that Wolf Walker is shorter than he ought to be and Iskandar Pecos bigger than he ought to be so he has to be the bet. Confidence is high and this has been the long term target for him. The 5/4 mark he was put in was the right sort of price for me so he has to be the bet at the current prices. Wolf Walker could be very good, but he has to prove it under rules and whilst at the initial 4/1 that was factored into the price I can't say it is anymore so happy to leave him alone now. I respect Latenightrumble and Paper Mill can outrun his odds, but Another Furlough was the other one that interested me and he is a danger as well.   Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4)   5.45 Cooler Than Me - Won a match last April and did finish 2nd in the Exeter point to point bumper prior to that. This looks a big ask though.   Earl Of Desmond - On his 2nd to Its On The Line at Cork in April 22 he would have a massive chance, but on his pulled up effort on stable debut at Exeter behind Yippee Ki Yay he would have no chance. What is interesting was he was being very well backed at big prices prior to being a non runner at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. Henry Oliver has previous in landing a gamble in this sphere so he's one to be wary of.   Fil d'Ariane - Ran a couple of cracking races in the Military races at Sandown where he didn't really seem to quite stay. I thought the drop down in trip would suit at Stratford, but whilst he was able to get a fairly easy lead, he couldn't get well clear of the field and he dropped out quite easily in the end. He clearly has ability, but this is even further than the Sandown races and whilst the ground wont be quite as testing I find it hard to see him staying.   Haven't Time - Was running a very promising race on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January 22 until falling at the last. He wasn't seen again for a year and he ran in 3 hurdle races with little promise. He then returned to hunter chases and ran a perfectly respectable race when 5th at Taunton and he followed that up by beating Polish at Southwell a couple of weeks later. He then went to Exeter and he looked to be in with a good chance of at least finishing 2nd until he faded quite badly on the run-in and he ended up 3rd with Yippee Ki Yay getting up for 2nd. I guess the issue is if he is going to stay this trip given how badly he tired at Exeter, but at least the ground will be much better than it was that day.   Jetaway Joey - Another horse who the Eillis' have got from Olly Murphy's yard and after being beaten on his first start for them last year he then went onto win his other 2. The form is solid enough as well because he beat Kaproyale in the first of them at Charing. This year he has only had one start and it was a match where he beat another good horse in Clara Sorrento, although the stables horses always come on for their first run so the form might be a little suspect. Stable won this race last year though and he has to be respected.   Jeux d'Eau - Has progressed massively as the season has progressed. He started off the year with a couple of 3rds, but then he landed 3 on the bounce. The middle win at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday was in a decent time, but what was especially eye-catching was his win last time which came in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett which is over 3m2f. It was a good performance as he travelled well throughout the race and kept going when asked for his effort down the home straight. It was a huge personal best and my thinking is it all depends on if he can repeat that performance 2 weeks later on his first start under rules. Looksnowtlikebrian was a 2L 2nd and he was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last Friday, but this is a better race than that.   Polish - Ran no sort of race on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton, but a month later he ran a much better race when finishing a close 2nd to Haven't Time at Southwell. He helped make the running that day which was a change of tactics and that clearly suited him better than being held up at Wincanton. He's a solid horse, but he does find winning hard and whilst he has a chance I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   Terrierman - Pulled up at Stratford in March and has been well beaten in all 3 points this season.   What A Glance - Finished 2nd on all 3 starts this season, but the last two have been behind Deise Aba at Lockinge and then at Stratford and I think both of those efforts were very good. At Stratford he looked like he would appreciate stepping back up in trip as he got outpaced that day and he looks to be one of the leading contenders.   Yippee Ki Yay - Was a winner back in January in a point which was a good effort and then ran terribly on his next start finishing last of 4 at odds on. To go from that to 9 days later hammering his rivals at Exeter was some feat especially as the 2nd had shown very good form this season. It could be argued he was the only one to run his race, but in some ways he put in an even better effort 6 days later at the same venue. He didn't win, but he made a really bad mistake at the 9th and stumbled badly on landing. It helped that there was a long gap between that and the next fence helped, but he crept back into the race. Whilst he had no chance catching the winner I thought he did very well to even finish 2nd in the circumstances. Another with claims of winning this.   Verdict - This is usually a pretty poor race, but this year's renewal looks pretty strong with only a couple that you could completely rule out. The early moves were for Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eau, but they look short enough to me now. I think What A Glance is a huge price at double figure odds. Given I think Deise Aba has a big chance in the following race I think he has a really good chance of hitting the frame at least with this longer trip set to suit. I'm also going to cover Yippee Ki Yay as those two Exeter efforts look very good and Haven't Time who hopefully can see it out better on this better ground.   What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1)   6.20   Captain Tommy - Bizarrely struggled in 2 points this season and yet has won 2 hunter chases at Ludlow. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the first when only having to beat Shang Tang, but I thought he achieved more when beating Espior De Guye over 2m4f. His run at Aintree was decent enough as well finishing 9th 38L behind the winner. Connections have been waiting for better ground so will be hoping the rain stays away. Not sure he's going to be quite up to winning this, but should run well.   Deise Aba - Has beaten What A Glance in his last two runs at Lockinge and Stratford so if he wins in the previous race that will be a big form boost. I thought he jumped really well at Stratford and he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The fact he won round there over just under 3m shows he still has a touch of class because that shouldn't be his ideal circumstances as he was a strong stayer under rules and his last good run was over the cross country course last January when just being beaten. I'd have been tempted to have run him in the 4m contest, but this test should really suit as well and crucially he wont care what the weather does.   Premier Magic - Bolted up in this race last year having of course won at The Festival the time before. That race was pretty weak last year though and Rebel Dawn Rising is a non stayer at this trip so I don't think he achieved a great deal. This season I had concerns about how good he still was as his two pointing wins told us nothing and he duly ended up pulling up at The Festival. He ran OK until he weakened after 3 out, but I think it adds to my theory that he isn't as good as he was last season. Clearly though that win last March is the best form in the race so a win wouldn't be a shock, but I'm happy to take him on.   Quintin's Man - Won the Intermediate Final on this card last year with ease and that plus his win at Wincanton and 3rd in the Walrus made me think he had an outside squeak at The Festival. That didn't go well though as he ran no sort of race. I was surprised that Darren said the testing ground was to blame as he looked like a horse who needed testing ground to be at his best. I could forgive him that, but a couple of weeks ago he disappointed again at Flete Park when finishing 4th over 4m. The biggest concern though is he flashed his tail when he started to be ridden after 3 out. He did bounce back from a couple of lesser runs at the start of the season to win at Wincanton and that was only 10 days after the latter of those efforts. If he does bounce back then he has a chance.   Encounter A Giant - Was a well beaten 5th in this last year and can't see him doing any better in a stronger renewal.   Fairly Famous - Won the previous race on this card last year which is usually the weakest race on the card, but he clocked a good time in doing so and connections were talking him up as a Festival contender. The 2nd at Horseheath on his return was a decent enough effort as he ran like he needed it, the big problem though was the Wetherby effort where he looked to hate the testing conditions and barely travelled at all. To be fair given Sine Nomine won even if had been better ground I doubt he would have beaten her. A month later he went back pointing and had a very easy task, but he won with ease. That was on soft ground and he clearly handles soft ground so if it does rain it shouldn't matter as it isn't going to be anything like Wetherby. This should be the race we find out how good he is.   Life Me Up - No doubt at least one of his owners will be watching from Miami where this weekend's F1 GP is taking place, but Mrs Horner might be at Cheltenham to watch her horse. He looked very promising last season when he won on hunter chase debut at Newbury, but he then ran poorly in the Intermediate Final when pulling up. This season he was a fair 2nd on his return, but the Kimble effort where he beat Caryto Des Brosses was much more impressive albeit over 2m4f. This is the best race he's been in, but surely that ran here a year ago was too bad to be true and he is a player.   Definite Dilemma - Has no chance.   Ripper Roo - Another who should be outclassed.   Verdict - Really good race this and much more strength than last year. Premier Magic can win, but he is priced up purely on last seasons form and if you were basing it just on this seasons form then I'm not even sure you would make him favourite let alone the short price he is. Lift Me Up was put in at double figure odds which was too big, but even though last year's run was probably too bad to be true it still has to be factored in and he's the right price now. I'm going to have a tiny bet on Quitin's Man as I want him covered just in case he returns to form, but the two for me are Deise Aba and Fairly Famous. Deise Aba will hopefully get a form boost in the race prior and he looks to retain plenty of his old ability based on what he's been doing this season. Fairly Famous was so good last year that I want him onside as well as connections have been waiting for better ground with him and they finally get it.   Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1)   6.55 Regatta De Blanc - A perfect record in points having won 4/4 which includes a dead heat with Grace A Vous Enki in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill in February. That was the run after he won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton in a race which worked out very well with D'Jango and Bennys King 2nd and 3rd. I thought she would be good enough to win at Newbury, but Secret Investor was back to form and finishing 2nd to him is no disgrace. Her jumping let her down a bit and the form in behind has not worked out, but it could just be case of two good horses beaten some average ones. There is certainly no Secret Investor in this and she should be very hard to beat.   Chenery - Only has a rating of 103 under rules and hasn't looked in good points this season as she did last season where she won 3 on the bounce.    Daisy Yeats - Only one win in 15 starts in points and that was partly because she was the only finisher.   Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase she was 2nd in at Cork on her last start before going to join Bradley, but that form is still better than most of these so is a contender for 2nd.   Glancing Glory - N/R   Grenadine Save - Has struggled in hunter chases and points this season and likely to be the same here.   Harbour Queen - N/R   Wheres My Wonder - Another Luca Morgan runner who is still a maiden and has no chance.   Verdict - If Regatta De Blanc doesn't win this then it will be the biggest shock of the hunter chase season. She should win this with ease because the rest are a very moderate bunch. 2 of the possible rivals are out now as well so Dul Ar Aghaidh really does look the only possible horse who looks capable of even coming 2nd.   7.30 D'Jango - Had a hell of a season since joining current connections having finished a superb 2nd in the opening hunter chase of the season to Regatta De Blanc and then beating Tea Clipper at Warwick. I think he got bogged down in the mud at Warwick when 4th in the Walrus. The 4th at The Festival was of course much better and was a fantastic effort. The problem is his start a month later at Cotley where he was only 6th of 7 behind Master Templar and Shantou Flyer who reversed Cheltenham and Taunton form. He wouldn't be the first horse to disappoint after running a big race at the Festival and given he stays really well this race has looked the ideal race for him all season so it might be worth forgiving him that poor effort.   Gaboriot - Interesting that they chose this race over the other options he had today including Punchestown where I think he would have had a chance. He was running very well when he unseated at Canal Turn in the Aintree Foxhunters where he was one of my bets of course. I thought he looked really good when winning at Catterick back in March and whilst he is unproven over 4m if his bang in form trainers think he will stay then that is good enough to me. He is a leading contender.   Law Of Gold - Been one of the best hunter chases in Britain in recent years including winning this race really impressive last year. The year before he jumped terribly and it was amazing that he even got as close to beating Coup De Pinceau as he did. Last year was very different and he travelled superbly well, jumped well and came home to a very easy 16L success. He then went to Stratford and ran terribly in the big race. This season he had his usual slow start when finishing 2nd at Horseheath in January and he then won his next two including beating Fier Jaguen as mentioned earlier where he didn't look like winning until staying past him on the run-in. Nearly always runs his race and every chance he will hold onto his crown.   Young Buck - Ex Paul Nicholls and won a hunter chase at Newton Abbot over 3m2f a year ago. Didn't always jump well but won as easily as his form suggested he would. He's struggled a little bit for new connections in points this season. He was well beaten on his return and was then a 12L 3rd to Another Furlough. He won his next start, but was then only 5th in the same race D'Jango was 6th in and Master Templer won. He looks like he's regressed to me.   Ange Des Malberaux - Not been seen for over a year and was out of form then so impossible to fancy.   Cheltenham De Vaige - Seems to always run well at this meeting and nothing wrong with his 3rd in this race last year. That does mean he has 22L to make up on Law Of Gold though and on his first start since October I can't see him doing that.   Coup De Pinceau - Caused a huge shock when winning this at 100/1 in 2022, but he didn't win again until winning a point in March which was his 3rd of 4 starts this season. The win was over 3m4f so again proving his stamina, but last time back over 3m he looked like he was going to win until just before the last and he found nothing for pressure. As a former winner and proven stayer you have to respect him, but if Law Of Gold had jumped as well as he did last year he wouldn't have won so I'm happy enough to oppose.   Finding Freedom - Luca must be running the whole stable and like the others looks to have no chance.   Master Templar - Has been very prolific in points after moving to this yard a couple of years ago having won 10 of his 15 starts. He's a proven stayer having won over 3m6f last season and 3m4f in January in a good performance on his seasonal return. He was beaten in a match on his next start but by a decent horse and only by a short head right on the line. As highlighted above he had Young Buck and D'Jango behind him when winning last time and to stay on and beat Shantou Flyer highlights what a top effort that was. This race has been the target and he looks to having a leading chance.   Mitchouka - Did win on New Years Eve at Horseheath, but has struggled a bit otherwise. That said his best effort was when just failing to win over 3m6f in March so at least the trip wont be an issue.   Myth Buster - Was 3rd behind Premier Magic on this card last year when getting outpaced so going for this race seems a better option especially as he won over 4m last year by 30L. The problem for me though is he seems to have lost his way a little bit this season and didn't jump well on his only hunter chase run at Wincanton in February.   Perfect Pirate - Another one from the Luca Morgan yard who returned pointing after 1180 days off the track. Unlike his stablemates he has actually shown reasonable form this season and won last time at Paxford. He's still hard to fancy though in a race like this.   Pym - No doubt a name many will remember when he was running under rules mainly for Nicky Henderson a few years ago. He gave his jockey a first win when winning on his debut for current connections and actually clocked a faster time than Law Of Gold on the same card. That is probably a bit misleading though as they went a slow pace in that race and Law Of Gold's final circuit time was quicker. He followed up last month when again putting in a nice performance and he had Mitchouka in behind in 4th. Stamina for the trip is an unknown, but if he stays he could well be capable of running a decent race.   Dreaming Diamond - Pulled up at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and also impossible to fancy.   Verdict - This market was very different last night as Master Templar had been the one for money and had almost been backed into favourite, but he has been a big drifter this morning and is available at just as big a price as he opened up at. I am going to make him a bet now as he has won on softer conditions before. When Law Of Gold had drifted he was going to be the bet, but I think the rain is against him. He did win on soft 2 back, but he usually needs decent spring ground and whilst he could still win I don't think he is value anymore so I can't put him up as a bet. If Gaboriot stays then I think he will go very close to winning and I will cover D'Jango small as well because this has been the race I have had in mind for him all season. Hopefully he can bounce back from his run last time and if he does he will be a big player.   Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1)   8.05 Slievegar - Ran well in the Intermediate Final last year when finishing 2nd and just didn't seem to stay. He then went to Kelso and won a weak hunter chase in easy style. This year has not been so good as he has been put in his place in all 3 points he has run in. A return to this track over a shorter trip might help him find the form he showed last year, but going to struggle if it doesn't.   Espoir De Guye - Thought there was some promise on his hunter chase debut when he didn't stay behind D'Jango at Warwick and he backed that up by beating Famous Clermont at Wincanton. I thought he won on merit that day, but fair to say he disappointed when 1/2F to win at Ludlow a month later. Captain Tommy beat him that day and all 3 of those pieces of form could be boosted prior to this race. He wasn't great at Aintree though and I just wonder if this stiffer track might catch him out even at this trip.   Go On Chez - Non-Runner   Rebel Dawn Rising - Better than just 2 hunter chase wins suggest and to be fair he would have won a 3rd at Fakenham last Easter if he hadn't thrown Dale Peters over the last. He had issues at the last at Fakenham again on Gold Cup day, but at least he got over it this time and quickened up to win. I thought he ran a really good race on this card last year until his stamina gave out and if he can repeat that effort I think he's capable of going close. Key could be how he has come out of the run at Aintree where he was up there for a fair way before finishing last of the 10 to get round. He won't mind if they get a bit of rain.   Cat Tiger - Looks to have gone backwards based on his 3 runs this year. He ran out on his owner at Hereford and then was a well beaten 3rd to Bennys King at Leicester. At Aintree he unseated at the 7th which is obviously too early to know how he would have got on. If he did find his best form then he's got every chance of going close, but the evidence to me suggests he won't be good enough.   Cooldine Bog - He certainly won't be good enough.   Dalahast - Has got a plenty to find with Espoir De Guye on his Ludlow 4th and he's never looked like winning a hunter chase yet.   Game Of War - Pulled up behind Espoir De Guye at Wincanton and even the jockey change to Darren Andrews shouldn't bring about enough improvement for him to get competitive in this.   Imperial Esprit - 15L 4th to Yccs Portocervo at Kempton last week and would have to improve on that to do any better here.   Mix Of Clover - Failed to complete in his first 3 points where he unseated twice and ran out the 3rd time. Did manage to finish at Kimble last time, but he was 36L behind Lift Me Up and that along with hos old rules form suggest he will struggle here.   Royal Act - Rated just 69 and was well beaten in a point a couple of weeks ago.   Solomon Grey - Won a hot renewal of this race in 2022 and was also a very good 3rd in it last year. That win in 2022 was the last time he got his head in front, but he's run some very creditable races since then. He's just had the 2 runs this season and although he was 4/7 at Larkhill on his return he always needs his first run of the season so the 3rd there wasn't a terrible effort. He was well backed ahead of the Stratford run la couple of weeks ago and was 3rd again not beaten that far by Deise Aba. With the first 2 home running earlier on in the card he could get a form boost ahead of this. I would also imagine he will improve for the run again which is what happened in this race last year when he ran a few days before this contest.   Tekap - Showed a bit of ability in points the last couple of seasons and was in the lead for a long way in the Intermediate Final last year before not staying and pulling up. This year he has pulled up in all 3 starts including at Wincanton behind Espoir De Guye on his last start.   The Composeur - Time wasn't anything special, but he was a visually impressive winner on his seasonal return at Cocklebarrow in January. Was backed into 2/1 at Garthorpe the following month, but dropped away to finish a well beaten 5th. A BHA mark of 99 sums up how much he has to find with the leading contenders.   Verdict - This race often ends up being the most competitive race on the card, but not this year as very few have realistic claims of winning. As soon as I saw the going I knew Go On Chez was going to come out and so he has. I was going to take him on anyway with Rebel Dawn Rising. This is the race on the card for him as he didn't stay over 3m2f last year and as long as he is over the Aintree effort which was good for a long way, then he is the one to beat. I was going to add Solomon Grey, but he needs good ground and I fear the rain has done for him. He should come on for the run at Stratford though and the form might well have been boosted earlier in the evening, but for the moment I will leave him alone after the rain.   Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4)   5.25 Punchestown I think Its On The Line will win again this year. He's clearly the best hunter chaser in Ireland and obviously he wasn't beaten far by Sine Nomine at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip he should be able to sit closer to the pace than he could at Aintree and whilst he no doubt will race lazily he just keeps finding for Derek's urgings. He's so tough that I'm not too worried about him doing all 3 Festivals and he does remind me a lot of On The Fringe.    There has been money for Lifetime Ambition and he had a rating of 158 in last year's Grand National. He's not up to that sort of level now, but clearly can still run to a decent mark and he bolted up over 2m4f at Cork on Easter Monday in what was a fairly weak race. He is a danger, but needs Its On The Line to run below par for me.   I can't have Famous Clermont on what he has done this season although James King being able to claim 3lbs in Ireland is a little plus for him although given he is a hard ride maybe the fact Will, who knows him so well, isn't ideal. He missed Aintree because of the ground so does come here fresh, but he needs to get back to last year's form to have any sort of chance.   Ferns Lock is interesting because I do think he will stay 3m round here so I don't think the trip is the problem it was at Cheltenham. He went nuts there though. He looked on edge coming down the walkway to the track and then as soon as the hood came off he lost the plot and any chance of him winning disappeared. Running him at Fairyhouse was crazy although to be fair I was shocked he was beaten by Boss Robin. He's had a month off since and if he can keep a lid on things he does have the ability to win this. I don't know too much about his jockey, but he performed a hell of a recovery in the La Touche Cup yesterday and he looks more than capable.   Billaway will no doubt run his usual solid race although he only got to the 4th last year when he unseated. He was 5th at Cheltenham though and it was a sign that he isn't quite at the level he was. Vaucelet has been 2nd in this for the last 2 years and maybe some spring ground will see an improvement, but he looks to have gone based on his form earlier in the season. We also know that he isn't as good as Ferns Lock if that one has is mind on the job, let alone being able to reverse form with Its On The Line. I suspect Boss Robin was flattered by his win over Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse and Samcro is the big price he should be.   So all in all Its On The Line rates a fairly strong bet, but I will also cover Ferns Lock because the ability is there and the price is big enough.   Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

So I don't clog up this thread I am going to post my Cheltenham/Punchestown preview on a separate one.

Fair play to you for that write up .
I know nothing of Hunter Chase races other than trainer D.Kemp is supposed to be pretty good at his job .
Good luck with your bets 👍