Torque

I'd say it's a stretch to call Nadal the favourite for Wimbledon. His results haven't been good enough in recent editions of the tournament and I don't see what's any different this year. Against anyone with a decent serve he could conceivably lose - don't forget he's lost to the likes of Rosol, Darcis and Muller at Wimbledon and that's before mentioning the very best players that do well on grass like Federer and Cilic for example. It's also possible the Spaniard won't even play this year after his French Open exertions. I think it's fair enough that Federer is the favourite and it certainly makes sense given the form and injury issues of his main rivals like Djokovic and Murray, but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that based on what I've seen from the Swiss these past two weeks he won't win Wimbledon. If he is to win it, he's going to have to raise his level a good few notches from where it is right now.

I'm not sure if it's saving energy. I think he's trying but something isn't quite right. I say that because after nearly being knocked out by Paire in a match where his serve was broken more than once in just the one set, he basically said that was unacceptable and he needed to tidy his serve up. That suggested to me that in the matches that followed he'd step up and be much tighter on serve - but he wasn't. Ebden broke him, Kudla should have broken him and whilst it's often been par for the course for Federer to beat players like that in two close sets usually he would hold serve easily and be content to just get one break and serve out a set but that hasn't been the case at all in his last three matches. He was slow to get going last week as well when he dropped the first set of his first match. One thing he deserves credit for though is showing plenty of fight and I'd say it's that combined with the effect he still has on opposing players that's seen him continue his winning run on grass. From what I've seen recently though, I don't think he's a certainty to win Wimbledon. If anything, his price could be a bit short.

As I’m sure you are all aware I compile my own odds I work in 7 leagues and each fixture round of each league I compile my odds vs the bookmakers. I’m sure this is straight forward, and everyone can understand this. Let’s look at some examples.
 
My odds

 
Bookmakers odds

Right first things first Price is everything in gambling I’m not betting on team’s that I think are great and oh that team played well last week I need to bet on that team this week because they are going to win. How likely is the outcome of each event (home draw or away win) is the first thing to look for.
 So, let’s go back to my odds

o.k now the odds you see in orange are the odds I've compiled and the odds in blue are from bet 365 in the example above odds taken from Bet 365 are the early prices. from that list above Guangzhou Evergrande, Tianjin Quanjian and Shanghai SIPG are all worth a second look at laying. Shandong Luneng are close to backing the rest I'm not interested in.

now lets have a look at the table above the prices have changed.
Guangzhou Evergrande, Tianjin Quanjian are no longer a price to lay, Shanghai SIPG are still a poor price, Shandong Luneng are now a backable price.
So price is KEY infact price is everything just because you see me betting a selection doesn't mean you should unless you get the right price.
 
This is why I say I do not recommend you follow my selection with your own money as by the time you see the selection 1/2 days after I have posted it it may have turned a back into a lay.
I'm not a tipster I back selections when I believe the outcome of the event has more chance then the bookmakers odds compilers do.
I hope this helps 
 
     

Nice spot 

Nadal won. Next stake £1181.59

Today has been a good day but with 5 selections still to play atm it could still turn out to be a bad day. I didn't see the second half was was surprised at the 3-0 score line. As I've been out I've missed some selections  but fingers crossed for a profitable day today but you won't see me getting carried away .
Just hope people continue to enjoy the thread and what I do and that would be good enough for me to continue. Like I said at the start of the thread I was struggling to get this going again and just needed the motivation in order to put in the hard work again.
So I would like to say a big Thank you to you all for getting me going again and Now I'm back into it and enjoying it more then ever. But this is just the start there is a very long way to go lets see how it looks after 2000 or so bets.

Looks good 

Nadal won. Next stake £999.78

I'm no expert in spread betting, but that must be a big win. Reward for your perseverance and proof that the higher the odds you operate at the greater the impact of variance and thus the potential for big deficits to be recovered if enough value bets are placed 

RESULTS
MONDAY 23.04.18 / 24.04.18
Single
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgårdens IF
Allsvenskan / 23rd Apr 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Djurgårdens IF (2-2) LOST 10PTS
Odds: 2.50
Stake: 10 
 
MONDAY 23.04.18 / 24.04.18
Single
Sport Recife vs Botafogo
Série A / 24th Apr 2018 @ 00:00
Double chance • Botafogo or draw (1-1) WON 8.30PTS
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10 
Profit/Loss of the day -1.70PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +115.70PTS
Overall Selections 48
Won 31
Lost 17
Strike rate :- 64.58%
Avg odds 2.07
R.O.I  +24.10%
a small loss on the day could of been better if not for a 90 min goal to make it 2-2 or could of been worse if not for a 93rd min goal to make it 1-1 in the Botafogo game. That's why I never moan about late goals some go for you some go against you 

Nadal won. Next stake £814.84

Borna Coric to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.25 with Bet365
Marco Cecchinato to beat Milos Raonic at 3.50 with Bet365
Daniil Medvedev to beat Kei Nishikori at 3.50 with Bet365
I think that we could definitely see some big upsets in Monte Carlo tomorrow, with Djokovic/Raonic/Nishikori all looking a bit overrated to me at the moment. In the previous round, Raonic didn't seem to be in any condition to play against top opposition on clay, Nishikori won only because Berdych completely (and hilariously) self-destructed, and Djokovic wasn't that great against Lajovic no matter what the scoreline says. All three bets can end like the bet on Oliveira, of course, but I like the odds way too much to let go. One win for a profit, two for a celebration!

The current overall record (expunging the 25 NFL bets from the previous campaign) is:
210 winners from 676 bets (31.07%), +97.68 points with an ROI of 14.45%.
Breakdown by sports is:
306 Football bets were +26.23 points for an ROI of 8.57%
286 Rugby Union bets were +51.54 points for an ROI of 18.02%
84 Rugby League bets were +19.91 points for an ROI of 23.71%
Conclusions include that maintaining a 30% strike rate should equate to a double digit ROI, which seems decent enough. Obviously it's good to spread the risk across the 3 different sports. Union seems to be over-performing this time round and carrying the other two sports. The League results from the last campaign were distorted by the good results for the World Cup which showed almost a 100% ROI from 22 bets. The remaining games were only just in profit.
Building up a decent sample size overall now, will look back at the overall figures again at the end of the football season.

Nice going Torque 1/4 of the way there  
 

No he isn't - I'd noticed that. But you don't need to be physically fit to beat Kohlschreiber - you don't even need to beat Kohlschreiber yourself if you know what I mean 

I must be a glutton for punishment as I'm finding myself drawn to another big underdog in Marrakech and it's Lamine Ouahab. The veteran Moroccan has no form to speak of having hardly played in the last couple of years, but he seems to have a penchant for upsetting the odds at this tournament. A quick look at his results show that he's beaten seeded players in at least two previous editions here - Haase, seeded 6th in 2012 and Garcia-Lopez, seeded 1st in 2015. If you're a numerologist then you'll have noticed the next number in that sequence is 2018 - is there an upset written in the numbers? He's drawn to face Kohlschreiber in the first round and on paper has very little chance, but the German has lost three on the spin and the last of those was the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup tie between Spain and Germany which he should have won. His confidence can't be all that great right now and as I've already mentioned there are bigger tournaments ahead that he might prefer to focus on and so Ouahab to win at 6.00, to win a set at 2.75 and +5.5 games at 1.83 - all with Betfair Sportsbook - look worth a try.
 

To be fair, Ahouda wasn't exactly disastrous, Ramos just approached the match very professionally.

Nijmegen won 2-1 - not before going 1-0 down though. Next stake £368.97

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.
+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.
+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.
+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

Paire v Simon 

Arsenal 3 Stoke 0. Next stake £184.06

Well done

Look how long it took me to do the 442 bets, and that was with bets around the 1.01 mark. Patience and discipline really are the key to success and even then you'll need a little bit of luck along the way.