April 16 - April 22

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Julien Benneteau (+1.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 2.50 with Pinnacle

I'm obviously not going to suggest that Benneteau should be the favourite here, but a set will be fully within his range if he plays well imo. Coric was great in Indian Wells, good in Miami, and poor in the Davis Cup, so he's on a bit of a downward spiral after big successes, while Benneteau, who's apparently playing his last season, can swing freely. Interestingly, neither player has a good record in Monte Carlo, with Coric standing at 0-3 at the moment.

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Shapovalov crushed Tsitsipas in the Australian Open, but this should be a good opportunity for a revenge. Shapovalov has virtually no experience on European clay, while Tsitsipas has a very good record on that surface - and the two matches he had to win in the qualifiers aren't going to hurt him either.

[CzechPunter]

Nobody joining me this week? I'm going for some underdogs tomorrow.

Di Wu to beat Vaclav Safranek at 2.10 with Bet365

Safranek has gone from an interesting success story to a guy that's struggling to get wins on any level, so not sure what makes him the favourite against a rather decent home player.

Andreas Seppi to beat Kyle Edmund at 2.63 with Marathonbet

Andujar showed that decent clay courters can still outplay Edmund in slowish conditions and this match probably comes a tad too soon for Edmund to be 100%. Seppi played a good match against the Brit back in the Australian Open and that was when Edmund was in the best possible form, so I do think that there's value in backing the Italian on Tuesday.

Lamine Ouahab to beat Jiri Vesely at 3.12 with Unibet

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Gastao Elias at 4.67 with Pinnacle

Let's be honest - a Challenger in Tunis is hardly one's dream right now, especially if you are a player that once was doing things on the main level, which Vesely and Elias both were. They are obviously better than Ouahab and Oliveira in terms of raw playing strengths and potentials, but matches in tennis are often decided by who wants it more and I therefore just can't ignore the odds the bookies are giving us for the two guys that should be hungrier. I can see both bets going down in flames, but I'd say that they are worth a shot nonetheless.

[liquidglass]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nobody joining me this week? I'm going for some underdogs tomorrow.

Di Wu to beat Vaclav Safranek at 2.10 with Bet365

Safranek has gone from an interesting success story to a guy that's struggling to get wins on any level, so not sure what makes him the favourite against a rather decent home player.

Andreas Seppi to beat Kyle Edmund at 2.63 with Marathonbet

Andujar showed that decent clay courters can still outplay Edmund in slowish conditions and this match probably comes a tad too soon for Edmund to be 100%. Seppi played a good match against the Brit back in the Australian Open and that was when Edmund was in the best possible form, so I do think that there's value in backing the Italian on Tuesday.

Lamine Ouahab to beat Jiri Vesely at 3.12 with Unibet

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Gastao Elias at 4.67 with Pinnacle

Let's be honest - a Challenger in Tunis is hardly one's dream right now, especially if you are a player that once was doing things on the main level, which Vesely and Elias both were. They are obviously better than Ouahab and Oliveira in terms of raw playing strengths and potentials, but matches in tennis are often decided by who wants it more and I therefore just can't ignore the odds the bookies are giving us for the two guys that should be hungrier. I can see both bets going down in flames, but I'd say that they are worth a shot nonetheless.

Just wondering where you would have got the courage to go against Edmund in his current form. Edmund was in superb form before he lost out of the ordinary to Andujar. I really believe that loss was suspect considering that he could have flung the match to stay ready for Monaco especially as there was not enough time in-between matches. The reasonable bet should be to back Edmunds or leave alone. 

[CzechPunter]

So you're saying that he tanked his first ever ATP final in order to be fresh for a R1 Masters match?

[liquidglass]

8 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

So you're saying that he tanked his first ever ATP final in order to be fresh for a R1 Masters match?

Hmmm! I did not really think of it that way where you make a very valid point. However there still leaves a tale of the unexplained as to what kind of form Edmund is actually in. So I will put it like this; Andujar was really in blistering form when he played Edmund. Edmund certainly was not playing that bad despite the awful score in defeat. He leads Seppi 2-0 and is currently in better nick. It can be argued that clay is either Edmund's best surface or second best....but he loves playing on it. I expect him to not only play well here, but should go some way into the draw. Good luck though!!!

[gabymnk]

On 4/15/2018 at 8:30 PM, CzechPunter said:

Julien Benneteau (+1.5 

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Shapovalov crushed Tsitsipas in the Australian Open, but this should be a good opportunity for a revenge. Shapovalov has virtually no experience on European clay, while Tsitsipas has a very good record on that surface - and the two matches he had to win in the qualifiers aren't going to hurt him either.

Great tip on Tsitsipas, CzechPunter !!!

[CzechPunter]

Cheers @gabymnk, let's hope that it won't be the only winning one this week!

[CzechPunter]

Vesely - Ouahab is apparently off, Vesely too ill to compete.

[CzechPunter]

Borna Coric to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.25 with Bet365

Marco Cecchinato to beat Milos Raonic at 3.50 with Bet365

Daniil Medvedev to beat Kei Nishikori at 3.50 with Bet365

I think that we could definitely see some big upsets in Monte Carlo tomorrow, with Djokovic/Raonic/Nishikori all looking a bit overrated to me at the moment. In the previous round, Raonic didn't seem to be in any condition to play against top opposition on clay, Nishikori won only because Berdych completely (and hilariously) self-destructed, and Djokovic wasn't that great against Lajovic no matter what the scoreline says. All three bets can end like the bet on Oliveira, of course, but I like the odds way too much to let go. One win for a profit, two for a celebration!

[gabymnk]

I  agree with you CzechPunter on Raonic and Nishikori. They are definitely favourites for an upset but Djoko is on a comeback and even though he has not convinced me against Lajovic I think he will go a few more rounds in this tournament.

I see value in Kohlschriber to beat Albert Ramos @ 1.71. I saw Phillip today against Sandgren and he looked really solid. 

I have not seen Ramos play recently but I'm confident Kohlschreiber will not give Ramos many chances.

[CzechPunter]

Quite unfortunate I'd say given how the matches went (especially how Coric didn't win the first set), but what can you do. Not sure what's going to happen tomorrow, did anybody see Thiem-Rublev?

[four-leaf]

Facundo Bagnis to beat Thomaz Bellucci at 2.10 with bet365

I consider Thomaz to be fortunate to be a seasoned pro who can still play on the challenger tour without having to qualify because of his ranking. He's ranked good enough for some bad performances on the ATP tour now and a wild card somewhere preferably in Sao Paulo or Rio De Janeiro. But truth to be told his ATP tour days are over. I can remember when Challenger tour finals were played in Brazil and poor Thomaz could not even muster enough strenght to win that, didn't even reach the final in two wildcard opportunities and then he was a steady top 100 player. But his ranking and career has been going down ever since. The guy has no mentalily and has never had any. If he would have had any he would have beaten Nole in Madrid when he pushed him to a decider that year when he was at his best. He always have had a lack of mentality. Now he's worse than ever and the bookies still somewhat expect him to beat Facundo. Can't imagine Thomaz to win anything these days so no for me and yes for the argie to win.

[four-leaf]

David Goffin to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 2.06 with Pinnaclesports

David has the edge over RBA these days. He's being more solid in bigger tournaments hence why his ranking is higher and he always have had a bigger playing ability so it explains why he goes further in the bigger tournaments. Now we get evens on David to win this, can anyone explain why he is not fav.

Grigor Dimitrov to beat (-1.5 sets) Philipp Kohlschreiber at 2.79 with Pinnaclesports

Just saying that Philipp usually does his best when he is the underdog but he lost in Madrid to Grigor in straight sets last season and I can see the same thing happening again. It's ofcourse going to be tight with at least one tie-breaker just like last season but Grigor just is the better player in most aspects of the game so therefore he has the ability to take this in straight sets again.

Dominic Thiem to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.28 with Pinnaclesports

Dom should have a tough match ahead of him but if he raises his level when it matters the most it should be him winning this again. Nole isn't there with his game anymore and this feels like it's as far as he goes.

[Sm0k3rZ]

@CzechPunter- whats your opinion on david vs Agut match? This really does look like a coin toss. one break either way and the set is practically lost. I didn't get to see the agut match but what i remember from David's match is always taking the lead and then losing it.  Second set was 3-0 and then was 3-3 in no time. This is the only thing holding me back from backing david. your thoughts?

[CzechPunter]

I don't think you're right about the "one break and the set is lost" in this particular match-up, but I certainly think that you're right about it being a coin toss, maybe RBA is a very tiny favorite for me due to the surface and Goffin's somewhat questionable match fitness. Could easily be a three-setter.

[CzechPunter]

Very good so far from Goffin, virtually no mistakes from the back of the court.

[Sm0k3rZ]

good to see Goffin play like this. Glad i pulled the trigger on him

[CzechPunter]

Well, phew.

[four-leaf]

Andreas Seppi to beat Kei Nishikori at 4.00 with bet365

Pulling the trigger on this now since I feel like it's gonna be a big opportunity for Andreas to win this one. They've never met on clay and this is a match Kei can lose on his own if he isn't focused on the task at hand. They have 2 wins each and Andreas have beaten Kei on grass while losing on hardcourt which is Keis best surface while grass is kind of Andreas best. For me Kei isn't back just yet, he hasn't proven anything in his comeback so far. Should take some time for Kei to play well enough for a decent streak in a masters or grand slam. Winning two matches is already a good performance by Kei.

[four-leaf]

Facundo Bagnis to beat (-1.5 sets) Jay Clarke at 2.00 with bet365

Jay made 11 double faults in his last match when he faced Akira Santillan and took about 3 medical timeouts. There was a lot of drama in the match and he spewed unforced errors like it was on autopilot and the match took 3 hours to complete. Jay is in his second ever challenger quarterfinal and reached the first just recently in San Luis Potosi. He's 19 years old and lacks to mutch match practice and probably fitness to be competitive enough for two sets in a match against a more experienced clayspecialist like Facundo who should win this without to mutch hassle so straight sets at evens looks good enough for me.

[CzechPunter]

Marin Cilic to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.84 with Marathonbet

Nishikori doesn't seem to be ready yet. He's winning matches, but he's giving his opponents way too many chances and someone as good as Cilic should be able to punish that.

[yogg]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Marin Cilic to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.84 with Marathonbet

Nishikori doesn't seem to be ready yet. He's winning matches, but he's giving his opponents way too many chances and someone as good as Cilic should be able to punish that.

i agree with this.

i watched nishikori yesterday and he looked like he couldn't wait to get off the court!

thanks for the excellent insight cp, as ever.

[CzechPunter]

Yep, all about Cilic I'd say - if he plays reasonably well, he's going to win.

[CzechPunter]

Well, if Nishikori wins (he's just taken the first set), I guess we'll have to applaud him. Just outsmarting the big man. Edit: Oh, alright, so Cilic is injured.

[CzechPunter]

Belarus to beat Slovakia at 1.41 with Marathonbet

I reckon that Belarus aren't 1.20 because Schmiedlova won a title recently. The SVK team isn't good, however, no really good players, while Belarus have two very good and one decent. Home conditions as well.

[four-leaf]

Jay Clarke and Kei Nishikori are some real fighters. They don't give up that easily.

[four-leaf]

Alexander Zverev to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.61 with bet365

Finally Keis run ends. He's done enough this week.

[liquidglass]

14 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Alexander Zverev to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.61 with bet365

Finally Keis run ends. He's done enough this week.

On this surface and considering the number of Games Zverev has already played, Nishikori looks the steadier of the two men. Zverev would have to win in two sets for him to win here. I see that as being highly unlikely. Nishikori grinds him down and progresses to the final is the verdict from the microscopic eye!. Good luck!!

[CzechPunter]

Not sure how it's not 2-0 in Belarus, some strange stuff, but cashing out doesn't make any sense.

Rafael Nadal to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.14 with Marathonbet

I dare him!